To the Post! NCHC postseason tournament.

[brianvf]

38 minutes ago, crb1 said:

Certainly take less 5 minute penalties. 

Less injured players for the opposing team too.  Although Conley seems to enjoy running goalies (2 for 2 this weekend), so maybe it's just not Abate on UNO.

[siouxweet]

7 hours ago, Wilbur said:

Ciskie posted something about the bulldogs being guaranteed entry in the NCAA tournament after Friday night. 

No way is that accurate.  If they get swept they would be .500 which meets the requirement but their RPI would drop putting them in a precarious position of hoping there aren't a bunch of upsets.  They sit 11th right now and getting swept put probably drop them another 2-3 spots for sure.

[brianvf]

26 minutes ago, siouxweet said:

No way is that accurate.  If they get swept they would be .500 which meets the requirement but their RPI would drop putting them in a precarious position of hoping there aren't a bunch of upsets.  They sit 11th right now and getting swept put probably drop them another 2-3 spots for sure.

Agreed.  I'd guess if they win one against SCSU (but still lose the series) that it'd probably be good enough.  Probably.
But if they get swept, they could drop a couple spots...and I'm guessing we could see a surprise AQ or two from other conferences this year that make it so you'd need to be in the top 13-14 to be guaranteed a spot.

[siouxfaninseattle]

I can't see getting swept by the #7 Pairwise team dropping them more than one spot - maybe two. 

[brianvf]

1 minute ago, siouxfaninseattle said:

I can't see getting swept by the #7 Pairwise team dropping them more than one spot - maybe two. 

Didn't someone used to post a pairwise predictor tool that we could put all the result predictions in and see what the PWR would be?
That would be helpful for this.   

[siouxweet]

1 hour ago, brianvf said:

Didn't someone used to post a pairwise predictor tool that we could put all the result predictions in and see what the PWR would be?
That would be helpful for this.   

Doesn't that usually come out after this coming weekend? 

[cberkas]

1 hour ago, brianvf said:

Didn't someone used to post a pairwise predictor tool that we could put all the result predictions in and see what the PWR would be?
That would be helpful for this.   

2022 NCAA Tournament Pairwise Comparison Ratings : College Hockey News

[siouxfaninseattle]

I don't think that is what brianvf is referring to. There was (and hopefully will be) a predictor tool that allowed you to play with matchups and see how various outcomes affected the teams' Pairwise. USCHO maybe. 

[brianvf]

12 minutes ago, siouxfaninseattle said:

I don't think that is what brianvf is referring to. There was (and hopefully will be) a predictor tool that allowed you to play with matchups and see how various outcomes affected the teams' Pairwise. USCHO maybe. 

Yeah that's it.  I forget which website had it.  Always very helpful and fun to play around to see where teams ended up depending on various results.

[JaDubbs]

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php

It looks like Duluth has a 99% chance that there in going of this Matrix

[farce poobah]

Quick look at UNO's season shows they have two bad losses in non-conference play:

Lake State, first game back in October.  Gave up an EAG then lost in OT.  And, at St Lawrence around New Year's:  Up two in the 3rd, Abate takes a slashing penalty, SLU scores one. UNO takes another minor, tie game, then SLU scores late in regulation to win it.

Omaha sits #18 today, but with those two wins (vs weaker non-conference opponents), they would be #13.   

[Wilbur]

12 hours ago, siouxweet said:

No way is that accurate.  If they get swept they would be .500 which meets the requirement but their RPI would drop putting them in a precarious position of hoping there aren't a bunch of upsets.  They sit 11th right now and getting swept put probably drop them another 2-3 spots for sure.

He posted that they were eligible now due to the .500 rule.  My fault, Bruce was just pointing out eligibility as a non automatic qualifier, which they attained.  

[Wilbur]

4 hours ago, farce poobah said:

Quick look at UNO's season shows they have two bad losses in non-conference play:

Lake State, first game back in October.  Gave up an EAG then lost in OT.  And, at St Lawrence around New Year's:  Up two in the 3rd, Abate takes a slashing penalty, SLU scores one. UNO takes another minor, tie game, then SLU scores late in regulation to win it.

Omaha sits #18 today, but with those two wins (vs weaker non-conference opponents), they would be #13.   

Omaha is better without Abate in the lineup.  Completely Gabinet's fault for telling the kid to cross the line etc., but going forward its amazing what not stirring up your opponent and not having to kill dumb penalties does for a team. 

[The Sicatoka]

Here's the better look:
https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php

Based on that, UMD (99.1%) and UMass (98%) would need some "one in fifty" or "one in a hundred" scenario to knock them out. 

 

There's a real HEA schmozzle there from 12 to 16. Somebody is going to get a harsh end to their campaign. 

 

PWR16 is at-large poison right now. The AHA champion is getting that.
PWR15 is not much better. Anyone but Q'pack wins the ECAC and PWR15 is at-large poison. 
Not as likely, but if other than MSU-Mankato or Michigan Tech wins the CCHA, PWR 14 is gone to the at-large as well (looking at you NMU and BSU Beavers). 

If you're N'eastern (PWR13) or UML (PWR14) right now you'd better be winning games or you're in that 15/16 poison bubble. 

[The Sicatoka]

12 hours ago, brianvf said:

Didn't someone used to post a pairwise predictor tool that we could put all the result predictions in and see what the PWR would be?
That would be helpful for this.   

https://blog.collegehockeyranked.com/2022/01/17/so-long-and-thanks-for-all-the-fish/ 

[The Sicatoka]

35 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Omaha is better without Abate in the lineup.  Completely Gabinet's fault for telling the kid to cross the line etc., but going forward its amazing what not stirring up your opponent and not having to kill dumb penalties does for a team. 

Omaha is better when they play with skill and not let their emotions drive their play. If that means sitting Abate ... 

[siouxfan512]

39 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Omaha is better without Abate in the lineup.  Completely Gabinet's fault for telling the kid to cross the line etc., but going forward its amazing what not stirring up your opponent and not having to kill dumb penalties does for a team. 

Oh you mean the guy who joked about him and Berry needing to talk to the league about not always playing each other the last week of the season because it always seemed to get pretty physical. Funny how that happens when you try to goon it up.

[SJHovey]

49 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

Here's the better look:
https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php

Based on that, UMD (99.1%) and UMass (98%) would need some "one in fifty" or "one in a hundred" scenario to knock them out. 

 

There's a real HEA schmozzle there from 12 to 16. Somebody is going to get a harsh end to their campaign. 

 

PWR16 is at-large poison right now. The AHA champion is getting that.
PWR15 is not much better. Anyone but Q'pack wins the ECAC and PWR15 is at-large poison. 
Not as likely, but if other than MSU-Mankato or Michigan Tech wins the CCHA, PWR 14 is gone to the at-large as well (looking at you NMU and BSU Beavers). 

If you're N'eastern (PWR13) or UML (PWR14) right now you'd better be winning games or you're in that 15/16 poison bubble. 

To my way of thinking, the ECAC is really the main threat for an outside team to get an AQ, with BC in HE as a secondary threat.  I don't see CC, Miami or UNO making a run to the championship in the NCHC.  I also don't see PSU winning the B1G.  Maybe both Tech and Mankato lose in the CCHA, but I doubt it.  HE will sort itself out.  Whoever wins it was probably getting in anyway since they'll likely come from that grouping in the 13-16 range, and would have qualified based upon PWR.

If you're 13 or better at the end of the year, I believe you'll definitely be in, and even 14 and 15 will have a reasonable shot.

 

[The Sicatoka]

		GP	PTS	Pt%	RW	RL	OW	OL
4	Minnesota-Duluth	24	36	.500	9	9	3	3
	St. Cloud State	24	36	.500	9	8	2	5

 

SCSU is getting the home series based on what tiebreaker?
Fewer regulation losses?

UMD has more RW+OW but not the home ice? 

[Big Green]

18 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

		GP	PTS	Pt%	RW	RL	OW	OL
4	Minnesota-Duluth	24	36	.500	9	9	3	3
	St. Cloud State	24	36	.500	9	8	2	5

 

SCSU is getting the home series based on what tiebreaker?
Fewer regulation losses?

UMD has more RW+OW but not the home ice? 

Pretty sure it is head to head.  SCSU won in Regulation and SO.  Duluth won in SO and OT.

 

[SIOUXFAN97]

so what was the attendance at the "electric" xcel last night........

if we keep losers like western and miami around the fronzen five needs to be on campus of the number one seed........

[Oxbow6]

6 minutes ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:

so what was the attendance at the "electric" xcel last night........

if we keep losers like western and miami around the fronzen five needs to be on campus of the number one seed........

10253 at last night's UND/WMU game.

[SIOUXFAN97]

17 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

10253 at last night's UND/WMU game.

empty upper deck and sparse seating in some areas of the lower bowl....

[SIOUXFAN97]

6100 butts in seats at magnuss last night > half empty 20k seat arena...

[SIOUXFAN97]