2022 Football Season

[Sioux>Bison]

On 11/27/2022 at 8:23 AM, Dustin said:

New DC. Even if someone is promoted internally. Need to send a message that defense was the letdown of the team. Hit the transfer portal hard in a hopefully one-time effort to shore up the defense for next season. Hit the recruiting trail hard for better defensive players.  It’d be a real shame  next year if we have one of the best (if not best) QBs in program history but can’t give him a worthwhile defense when he’s not on the field. 

Last year’s defense was great. Fire a guy for one season? Personnel not to blame?

[Dustin]

14 minutes ago, Sioux>Bison said:

Last year’s defense was great. Fire a guy for one season? Personnel not to blame?

I must have a short memory - was last year's defense great?  As Frasier Crane would say, I'm listening...

[JohnboyND7]

14 hours ago, BarnWinterSportsEngelstad said:

Troll talking to a troll.

Why did you highlight the inbreeding comment lol.  UND's football coaching has been very incestuous.

Bubba - 15 years as an assistant at UND.  Another six or seven with Lennon at SIU?

Mussman - 8 years as an assistant at UND before getting the head job.

Lennon - Played at UND, 8 years assisting at UND, then head coach.

Roger Thomas was the last HC at UND without spending a long period of time at UND as an assistant.  You can argue whether its good or bad, you can't really argue its been pretty heavy on the inbreeding.

[geaux_sioux]

34 minutes ago, Sioux>Bison said:

Last year’s defense was great. Fire a guy for one season? Personnel not to blame?

Last years defense was decent, not even close to great. 20.27 ppg will never be considered great. Matter of fact we haven’t averaged under 20 ppg in D1. 

[UND-FB-FAN]

17 hours ago, iramurphy said:

Regardless our debates won’t be part of those decisions. I do feel Bubba has put together a strong staff. I believe they do a good job recruiting despite our present disadvantages but having said that we need to keep doing better.

Credit to your initial anecdote providing some context to the winemaking theory. That was nice and insightful. There can be more to the story, no doubt, and perhaps Bubba is a championship-caliber coach who just has got a bad break at Duluth and now UND, without the appropriate support. But let’s be honest; that’s wishful thinking and unlikely. 
 

Your opinion is valued, just like everyone’s is. However, interestingly, your smoke and mirror posts continue to cover up a glowing issue. “Our debates won’t be part of those decisions”. So, you’re saying that our opinions (this forum likely has some of the most loyal fans/alumni on it, but we’re perhaps a bit too outspoken. Well, after all, that’s the point of this forum!) won’t be valued. Perhaps the suit coats at UND should value our opinions. The University of North Dakota is a public institution. Albeit I admit it has to occur via different channels than an online forum, obviously. There are several well-educated folks that support UND that have *chosen* to not pursue athletic department leadership, not the other way around. 
 

We understand that your opinion is that Bubba has put together a strong staff and Bubba is a strong coach. We understand that he recruits Detroit Lakes and you are satisfied with the recruiting efforts.

I respectfully disagree that he is a “strong coach”. He is an average division I coach. The programs at NDSU and SDSU are currently superior. Change will need to be made for UND to supplant these programs. Again, smoke and mirrors to move the conversation away from coaching is a fine tactic, and your opinion is valued, but I don’t agree with it. From an odds perspective, you are right: UND won’t terminate Bubba. It’s not because it’s wrong to terminate him, but rather that UND’s athletic department is financially conservative and does not want to be a national player in football. They have hockey for that. 
 

We all will carry on. You have accepted that, and support what you can. That is fine. Others, on this forum, still cling to a pipe dream that one day UND can win another national championship in football. I do as well, and for the time being, will support UND in that quest. But, my opinion is that level of accomplishment will require a change in current football leadership. 

Again, carry on. Happy Holidays. 

[fightingsioux4life]

3 minutes ago, UND-FB-FAN said:

Credit to your initial anecdote providing some context to the winemaking theory. That was nice and insightful. There can be more to the story, no doubt, and perhaps Bubba is a championship-caliber coach who just has got a bad break at Duluth and now UND, without the appropriate support. But let’s be honest; that’s wishful thinking and unlikely. 
 

Your opinion is valued, just like everyone’s is. However, interestingly, your smoke and mirror posts continue to cover up a glowing issue. “Our debates won’t be part of those decisions”. So, you’re saying that our opinions (this forum likely has some of the most loyal fans/alumni on it, but we’re, perhaps we’re a bit too outspoken. Well, after all, that’s the point of this forum!) won’t be valued. Perhaps the suit coats at UND should value our opinions. The University of North Dakota is a public institution. Also, there are several well-educated folks that support UND that have *chosen* to not pursue athletic department leadership, not the other way around. 
 

We understand that your opinion is that Bubba has put together a strong staff and Bubba is a strong coach. We understand that he recruits Detroit Lakes and you are satisfied with the recruiting efforts.

I respectfully disagree that he is a “strong coach”. He is an average division I coach. The programs at NDSU and SDSU are currently superior. Change will need to be made for UND to supplant these programs. Again, smoke and mirrors to move the conversation away from coaching is a fine tactic, and your opinion is valued, but I don’t agree with it. From an odds perspective, you are right: UND won’t terminate Bubba. It’s not because it’s wrong to terminate him, but rather that UND’s athletic department is financially conservative and does not want to be a national player in football. They have hockey for that. 
 

We all will carry on. You have accepted that, and support what you can. That is fine. Others, on this forum, still cling to a pipe dream that one day UND can win another national championship in football. I do as well, and for the time being, will support UND in that quest. But, my opinion is that level of accomplishment will require a change in current football leadership. 

Again, carry on. Happy Holidays. 

Well said.

[The Sicatoka]

In the DII days, NDSU was NDSU, but UND owned SDSU in football.
Frankly SDSU went DI with NDSU more for BB than FB. 

The "head start" excuse grows thinner by the day (literally).

So why can't UND re-establish itself as superior to SDSU in football?
Are we not giving football "the same" (relative to DII days) internal priority? 

[geaux_sioux]

Just to add some perspective on our defense. We have had at best a good defense 4 times since 2012. In years '16 '19 '20 and '21 we averaged at or under 22.0 ppg. The best being last year at 20.27ppg. That's modest success defensively but it's enough to win games if your offense is worth its salt. Since 2012 we have averaged 26.7 ppg. In that same time frame the average ppg for national champion defenses has been 14.1 ppg. JMU is the outlier in that group allowing over 20 ppg at 21.2, however, they scored 46.67 ppg to offset their decent at best defense in 2016. Basically, if we want to make deep playoff runs we need to score on average over 30ppg and give up under 20ppg. We've had plenty of offenses hit that mark and all of 0 defenses. 0, zip, zilch, nada. All but two of those seasons we've had a head coach who is a former defensive coordinator. It's not good enough. Never was, never will be. It's always about the defense in the playoffs and our playoff record in D1 is appropriately atrocious when you look at the stats. We need to get better on d and stay that way.

[geaux_sioux]

21 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

In the DII days, NDSU was NDSU, but UND owned SDSU in football.
Frankly SDSU went DI with NDSU more for BB than FB. 

The "head start" excuse grows thinner by the day (literally).

So why can't UND re-establish itself as superior to SDSU in football?
Are we not giving football "the same" (relative to DII days) internal priority? 

Malcom Gladwell would say their success is more a product of timing than of ability.

[jdub27]

On 11/27/2022 at 9:30 AM, zonadub said:

Pretty sure he would turn down a head coaching position and the opportunity to turn the program around, aren’t you, SlowHand? Well, given UND’s lazy AD and history of inbreeding, it will never happen anyway.

What position would you look to give a guy who's been a grad assistant for 2 years and spent the rest of his career as an LB coach? Are we talking DC or HC? 
 

43 minutes ago, UND-FB-FAN said:

I respectfully disagree that he is a “strong coach”. He is an average division I coach. The programs at NDSU and SDSU are currently superior.

How do you think Stig changed from an average coach for a few decades to whatever you'd consider him now?
Do you really think Entz is a great head coach? Or was he born on 3rd base with the program he took over?

[Sioux>Bison]

45 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

In the DII days, NDSU was NDSU, but UND owned SDSU in football.
Frankly SDSU went DI with NDSU more for BB than FB. 

The "head start" excuse grows thinner by the day (literally).

So why can't UND re-establish itself as superior to SDSU in football?
Are we not giving football "the same" (relative to DII days) internal priority? 

With all SDSU’s success they still haven’t won a national title. If Bubba had that roster he would have the same success. Is Bubba the reason we don’t have that roster? Maybe so but maybe not the main reason. I see no issue with making a big change once Bubba contract is over. 

[Sioux>Bison]

27 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

What position would you look to give a guy who's been a grad assistant for 2 years and spent the rest of his career as an LB coach? Are we talking DC or HC? 
 

How do you think Stig changed from an average coach for a few decades to whatever you'd consider him now?
Do you really think Entz is a great head coach? Or was he born on 3rd base with the program he took over?

Say what!?!)?!? Stig was an average coach for decades and still kept his job????? Let’s hear the negative Nancy posters spin that one!

[Midwestern Hawk]

13 minutes ago, Sioux>Bison said:

Say what!?!)?!? Stig was an average coach for decades and still kept his job????? Let’s hear the negative Nancy posters spin that one!

You need to look closer at his results and the context.

[The Sicatoka]

Most of Stig's tenure SDSU was a BB school. Only recently did SDSU put any focus on FB. 

[Sioux>Bison]

1 minute ago, The Sicatoka said:

Most of Stig's tenure SDSU was a BB school. Only recently did SDSU put any focus on FB. 

And UND is finally putting in some focus on football finally too so where is the difference?

and SDSU still has no national title 

[SooToo]

35 minutes ago, geaux_sioux said:

Just to add some perspective on our defense. We have had at best a good defense 4 times since 2012. In years '16 '19 '20 and '21 we averaged at or under 22.0 ppg. The best being last year at 20.27ppg. That's modest success defensively but it's enough to win games if your offense is worth its salt. Since 2012 we have averaged 26.7 ppg. In that same time frame the average ppg for national champion defenses has been 14.1 ppg. JMU is the outlier in that group allowing over 20 ppg at 21.2, however, they scored 46.67 ppg to offset their decent at best defense in 2016. Basically, if we want to make deep playoff runs we need to score on average over 30ppg and give up under 20ppg. We've had plenty of offenses hit that mark and all of 0 defenses. 0, zip, zilch, nada. All but two of those seasons we've had a head coach who is a former defensive coordinator. It's not good enough. Never was, never will be. It's always about the defense in the playoffs and our playoff record in D1 is appropriately atrocious when you look at the stats. We need to get better on d and stay that way.

Maybe stats need to be interpreted in the context of your opponents. I can't comment on the strength of other conferences, but I think most would agree the Big Sky and the Valley are among the strongest. You noted UND did relatively well defensively 2019-21. (I can't find the stats from spring 2021 season.) In 2021, UND ranked 4th in scoring defense in the Valley at 20.3 ppg (7th vs run but 3rd vs pass), but we were 8th in scoring offense. This year, we were 4th in scoring offense at 30.9 ppg but 9th in scoring defense, giving up 30.8 ppg. Same coaches, same schemes.

Certainly room for improvement, and recruiting definitely open to criticism, but  it's difficult to fault defensive scheme or coaching decisions with such big swings in performance year-to-year. Looks more like a personnel issue: What/who changed for UND from 2021 to 2022?

For those who question the effectiveness of 3-4, interesting that Montana topped the Big Sky defensively this year at 19 ppg and was 2nd in 2021 at 16.3 ppg running a very similar defense. (3-3-5, actually).

 

[geaux_sioux]

1 minute ago, SooToo said:

Maybe stats need to be interpreted in the context of your opponents. I can't comment on the strength of other conferences, but I think most would agree the Big Sky and the Valley are among the strongest. You noted UND did relatively well defensively 2019-21. (I can't find the stats from spring 2021 season.) In 2021, UND ranked 4th in scoring defense in the Valley at 20.3 ppg (7th vs run but 3rd vs pass), but we were 8th in scoring offense. This year, we were 4th in scoring offense at 30.9 ppg but 9th in scoring defense, giving up 30.8 ppg. Same coaches, same schemes.

Certainly room for improvement, and recruiting definitely open to criticism, but  it's difficult to fault defensive scheme or coaching decisions with such big swings in performance year-to-year. Looks more like a personnel issue: What/who changed for UND from 2021 to 2022?

For those who question the effectiveness of 3-4, interesting that Montana topped the Big Sky defensively this year at 19 ppg and was 2nd in 2021 at 16.3 ppg running a very similar defense. (3-3-5, actually).

 

We’ve had varying levels of personnel in D1 but the results have never been good enough. That’s enough for me to suggest the scheme ain’t working. 

[Dustin]

13 minutes ago, SooToo said:

What/who changed for UND from 2021 to 2022?

There actually were a number of big names missing from the defense from '21 to '22:  Holm (grad/retired), Fort (on roster, but injured), Nelson (transfer), Canady (grad/retired), Seguin, Pierre, and Lickfeldt (Can't remember the various scenarios with those last 3 guys).  So maybe I've overreacted on calling for a new DC.  Still need something big to happen on defense.  It'd be nice if it were to happen under Tommy's offense.

[Midwestern Hawk]

4 minutes ago, Dustin said:

There actually were a number of big names missing from the defense from '21 to '22:  Holm (grad/retired), Fort (on roster, but injured), Nelson (transfer), Canady (grad/retired), Seguin, Pierre, and Lickfeldt (Can't remember the various scenarios with those last 3 guys).  So maybe I've overreacted on calling for a new DC.  Still need something big to happen on defense.  It'd be nice if it were to happen under Tommy's offense.

Jaxson Turner, Noah Larson and Ty Shannon.  I knew the defense would take some time to rebuild, but it just never came together.

[geaux_sioux]

6 minutes ago, Dustin said:

There actually were a number of big names missing from the defense from '21 to '22:  Holm (grad/retired), Fort (on roster, but injured), Nelson (transfer), Canady (grad/retired), Seguin, Pierre, and Lickfeldt (Can't remember the various scenarios with those last 3 guys).  So maybe I've overreacted on calling for a new DC.  Still need something big to happen on defense.  It'd be nice if it were to happen under Tommy's offense.

Lol, says big names, forgets Turner and Larson adds Lickfeldt.

[Dustin]

4 minutes ago, geaux_sioux said:

Lol, says big names, forgets Turner and Larson adds Lickfeldt.

Haha, trying to do this while attending a work meeting.  Point is, we were a lot more depleted than I was remembering throughout the season.

[geaux_sioux]

5 minutes ago, Dustin said:

Haha, trying to do this while attending a work meeting.  Point is, we were a lot more depleted than I was remembering throughout the season.

We did lose a lot but not enough to give up 30+ a game. No excuse for that. 

[The Sicatoka]

Let's look at this slightly differently:

Same coaches, same schema, different personnel, and the results getting worse.

Might it not be any of those but the combination (coach/schema/personnel) meaning ...
 

Has UND become predictable on defense and teams know what to run in various situations? 

[SooToo]

10 minutes ago, geaux_sioux said:

We did lose a lot but not enough to give up 30+ a game. No excuse for that. 

So what's the explanation then? Why did points allowed jump by roughly 50% in one year if not due to personnel changes?

Seems pretty clear the problem has been failure to recruit and/or development replacements for some very strong talent that left after 2021, including Canady, Turner, Larson and others -- all of whom were recruited by this same staff that's too old, too D-II, too satisfied with mediocrity.  

 

[Irish]

1 hour ago, Sioux>Bison said:

With all SDSU’s success they still haven’t won a national title. If Bubba had that roster he would have the same success. Is Bubba the reason we don’t have that roster? Maybe so but maybe not the main reason. I see no issue with making a big change once Bubba contract is over. 

And that's the rub - a problem created by Chaves' bizarre decision to extend a 5-6 coach whose coaching that season could only charitably be described as sup-par.