2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

[rochsioux]

1 hour ago, Oxbow6 said:

You are a in completely unique and unfortunate situation when compared to a vast majority of healthcare systems in the nation. Mayo just predicted a $30B loss through year end. Cutting staff hours and salaries....on all levels. Ancillary, nurses, therapists, doctots. Same holds true in our area and throughout most of the nation. Systems are awaiting this "surge". Lots of hospitals beds running at 20-40% capacity just waiting. Lots of unattended medical needs not being met. Know your front line work in the most impacted area in this country is something most can't even imagine. Thank you.

I assume you made a typo here. 

Mayo Clinic loss for this year is expected to be 3 billion  

 

[Oxbow6]

7 minutes ago, rochsioux said:

I assume you made a typo here. 

Mayo Clinic loss for this year is expected to be 3 billion  

 

Correct and noted. My mistake.

[Siouxperman8]

3 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

Yup........ 2.2M potential deaths down to around 60K all in the name of social distancing???

In some states they're close to bringing in the armed guard and tanks to make sure family can't even visit family if they want.

You do realize even with FDA approved treatment options people still are dying from AIDS? 

I listened to Osterholm again yesterday.  Here is his take - don't blame the messenger here.

He said that the 60k death estimate is based on Wuhan type lock down across the entire country through the end of August.  that isn't possible in the US and we aren't locking people down at that level.  It also only estimates deaths out thru August.  The higher death estimates are based on less stringent distancing (he says more realistic here) and project out 12-18 months.    

He advises a very basic set of numbers for estimating deaths from this thing.

50% of Americans will get it = 160 million

Best estimates based on data globally are 1% of those that get it will die from it = 1.6 million deaths*.  He's still staying with that number.

*edited

[dynato]

11 minutes ago, Siouxperman8 said:

I listened to Osterholm again yesterday.  Here is his take - don't blame the messenger here.

He said that the 60k death estimate is based on Wuhan type lock down across the entire country through the end of August.  that isn't possible in the US and we aren't locking people down at that level.  It also only estimates deaths out thru August.  The higher death estimates are based on less stringent distancing (he says more realistic here) and project out 12-18 months.    

He advises a very basic set of numbers for estimating deaths from this thing.

50% of Americans will get it = 160 million

Best estimates based on data globally are 1% of those that get it will die from it = 160k deaths.  He's still staying with that number.

1% of 160 million is 1.6 million deaths, not 160k

[Siouxphan27]

I thought some were still saying 3.7% will die.  

[dynato]

2 minutes ago, Siouxphan27 said:

I thought some were still saying 3.7% will die.  

Short term with shelter in place, 3.7% are dying. No alternative facts. Current stats: 525K Positive Cases, 20.3K deaths. It's at 3.86% as of today in the good ol' USA. 
Long term death rate with studying of the virus, vaccinations, proper isolation and treatment of positive cases, and heard immunity: 1% (expert prediction).

[UND1983]

Have they ever released definitive ages of the deceased?  

[Siouxperman8]

21 minutes ago, dynato said:

1% of 160 million is 1.6 million deaths, not 160k

thanks.  i knew the number but mistyped.  I'll edit it.

 

[Oxbow6]

2000+ hospital beds in ND. 10 current COVID inpatients in the state. Sanford wants to turn Fargodome into a COVID field hospital. Healthcare systems in ND are going broke.

[dynato]

1 minute ago, UND1983 said:

Have they ever released definitive ages of the deceased?  

I posted global stats yesterday. 

Italy's numbers:

Current estimates in the USA is that 8/10 covid deaths in the USA are from people aged 60+. I could not find any clear death rates by age grouping for the USA.

[UND92,96]

I certainly can't vouch for its accuracy, but there was article yesterday (sorry, no link but it was re-printed in the Herald) whereby a Minnesota state health economist said there is reason to believe that the true number of infected in MN is actually 100 times higher than the number of positive tests. If true (a big "if"), the mortality rate so far in MN could be as low as .04%.

[SWSiouxMN]

2 minutes ago, UND92,96 said:

I certainly can't vouch for its accuracy, but there was article yesterday (sorry, no link but it was re-printed in the Herald) whereby a Minnesota state health economist said there is reason to believe that the true number of infected in MN is actually 100 times higher than the number of actual positive tests. If true (a big "if"), the mortality rate so far in MN could be as low as .04%.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/11/latest-on-covid19-in-mn

[Siouxphan27]

6 hours ago, southpaw said:

The US passed Italy today for total deaths from Covid 19, so no, we're not Italy. 

We're #1!

If New York was a country, it would have the 6 most deaths in the world.

Having almost 6 times the population of Italy is a pretty important factor I would think.

[homer]

1 hour ago, Siouxphan27 said:

Having almost 6 times the population of Italy is a pretty important factor I would think.

Graph flips if you go by percentage of population.  

[dynato]

3 hours ago, UND92,96 said:

I certainly can't vouch for its accuracy, but there was article yesterday (sorry, no link but it was re-printed in the Herald) whereby a Minnesota state health economist said there is reason to believe that the true number of infected in MN is actually 100 times higher than the number of positive tests. If true (a big "if"), the mortality rate so far in MN could be as low as .04%.

3 hours ago, SWSiouxMN said:

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/11/latest-on-covid19-in-mn

There's a lot of ifs about the unknowns here, but the premise is right. CDC estimates that twice the people who have the flu never go in to get seen for it. This easily cuts the current COVID mortality rate that we are experience in half. I would like to think people would behave similar, if not lean towards a tendency to go get tested since we are in a pandemic, rather than stay at home. Proposing 99 out of 100 people in MN are staying at home and not getting tested if they have symptoms is a little extreme. Though more widespread testing would help validate this and position the USA to open up sooner. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

[UNDlaw80]

To add to that....

Since this country still doesn't have adequate testing available for everybody, some researchers have been analyzing sewage a method of tracking Covid rates.  Some interesting initial findings: 

 

Sewage analysis suggests a New England metro area with fewer than 500 COVID-19 cases may have exponentially more

https://abcnews.go.com/US/sewage-analysis-suggests-england-metro-area-fewer-500/story?id=70068740

[UND1983]

9 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:

To add to that....

Since this country still doesn't have adequate testing available for everybody, some researchers have been analyzing sewage a method of tracking Covid rates.  Some interesting initial findings: 

 

Sewage analysis suggests a New England metro area with fewer than 500 COVID-19 cases may have exponentially more

https://abcnews.go.com/US/sewage-analysis-suggests-england-metro-area-fewer-500/story?id=70068740

So the majority of the people (anywhere from 2,300 to 115,000 - lmfao) didn't even know they had it or fought it off like a typical flu/illness?  

[Oxbow6]

Sounds like the DOJ is starting to see some around the country giving civil liberties the middle finger.........

[UNDlaw80]

27 minutes ago, UND1983 said:

So the majority of the people (anywhere from 2,300 to 115,000 - lmfao) didn't even know they had it or fought it off like a typical flu/illness?  

It's only an initial finding, but the results seem feasible.  With limited testing, common sense should tell you that Covid is more prevalent than numbers indicate. 

[Nodak78]

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/coronavirus-in-five-states.php

 

[UNDlaw80]

58 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

Sounds like the DOJ is starting to see some around the country giving civil liberties the middle finger.........

Unfortunately, that's all political.    

[Nodak78]

1 minute ago, UNDlaw80 said:

Unfortunately, that's all political.    

Or relating to the constitution.

[UND1983]

2 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:

Unfortunately, that's all political.    

This entire thing is political.  Been tryin to say that since early March.  Stinks.

[UNDlaw80]

1 hour ago, Nodak78 said:

Or relating to the constitution.

 

What Constitution?  I live in Milwaukee.  I was among the tons of people who were, for all intents and purposes, denied the right to vote recently.  Literally.  The DOJ ain't stepping in on our behalf.   

Yes, it's all politically motivated.  Everything, on both sides.  Unfortunately.  

 

[dynato]

4 minutes ago, Nodak78 said:

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/coronavirus-in-five-states.php

 

It is worth noting that the governor's model, is actually a team of PhD. infectious diseases professors from the U of MN twin cities. One member of that team is Michael Osterholm.

Models become invalid after two days without continuous updates of the developing situation. Take the IHME model, which is where the 60k deaths is being pulled from. They estimate that peak NY deaths will happen on April 15th, and that they will have half the deaths of April 15th, just two days afterwards on April 17th. Their model assumes a sharp decrease in daily deaths after the peak has been reached. Their model assumes that there is not going to be a plateau at the peak and a slow trail-off reduction in deaths.