UND-RedSox fan Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 With two weeks to go there are a couple of close battles for playoff positioning. UND and SCSU still tied for 1st and there is a 3 way tie for the last home playoff spot. T1) UND 15-4-1-1 47 points @Omaha and Home vs WMU T1) SCSU 15-4-1-1 47 points Home vs Duluth and @CC 3) Denver 13-5-2-0 41 points @WMU and vs Omaha T4) Miami 7-11-2-2 25 points vs CC and @Duluth T4) Duluth 7-10-3-1 25 points @SCSU and vs Miami T4) Omaha 8-11-1-0 25 points vs UND and @Denver 7) WMU 5-14-1-1 16 points vs Denver and @UND 8) CC 4-15-1-0 13 points @Miami and vs SCSU UND can finish with a maximum of 59 points and finish anywhere from 1st to 3rd. Falling behind Denver is unlikely but possible. They have a slightly more difficult remaining schedule than SCSU in my opinion. SCSU can finish with a maximum of 59 points and finish anywhere from 1st to 3rd. Again falling behind Denver is unlikely and they have a slightly more favorable schedule than UND. It is very unlikely a situation will occur where UND and SCSU finished tied and SCSU doesn't win the tiebreaker for seeding. They are probably the favorite to finish with the 1 seed at this point. Denver can finish with a maximum of 53 points and finish anywhere from 1st to 3rd. Finishing 1st will be a long shot as making up two games on two teams with only 4 games remaining is very unlikely. Most likely will finish 3rd. Miami can finish with a maximum of 37 points and finish anywhere from 4th to 8th. CC would need to win out and they would need to lose out to finish in last. It is also very unlikely that WMU will be able to catch them. They have the most favorable remaining schedule of the 3 teams fighting for 4th. Duluth can finish with a maximum of 37 points and finish anywhere from 4th to 8th. CC would need to win out and they would need to lose out to finish in last. It is also very unlikely that WMU will be able to catch them. They have the second most favorable remaining schedule of the 3 teams. Omaha can finish with a maximum of 37 points and finish anywhere from 4th to 8th. CC would need to win out and they would need to lose out to finish in last. It is also very unlikely that WMU will be able to catch them. They have the most difficult remaining schedule of the teams fighting for 4th. WMU can finish with a maximum of 28 points and finish anywhere from 5th to 8th. They cannot finish 4th since Miami and Duluth play against each other and one of those teams will have to take 3 points. CC can finish with a maximum of 25 points and finish anywhere from 5th to 8th. Agains since Miami and Duluth play against each other, it will be impossible for them to finish in the top four. This is the most top heavy the NCHC has been in the first 3 years. Both UND and SCSU have already matched the point total of the conference champion two years ago and will match the highest point total in conference history with one win in their last 4 games. It is possible that Denver will finish 3rd in the conference and have the 3rd best NCHC record in the conference's short history. Last year it took 41 points to have a home playoff series and it took 37 two years ago. Last year SCSU finished 6th in the conference with 34 points. It is likely a team will finish in 4th this year with fewer than 34 points. Quote
siouxfaninseattle Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 And they dropped to 4th in the Pairwise?? Quote
UND-RedSox fan Posted February 21, 2016 Author Posted February 21, 2016 7 minutes ago, siouxfaninseattle said: And they dropped to 4th in the Pairwise?? I thought that was weird as well but currently UND and BC are separated by .0002 in RPI, and I think it was extremely close coming into the weekend, so we are pretty much tied with them. If we sweep UNO and BC sweeps UMass-Lowell next week, we will move back ahead of them according to the game modifier on College Hockey News. Quote
brianvf Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 I think UND wins 3 of their last 4 and SCSU wins out. SCSU with the #1 seed, UND with the #2 seed and play WMU on back to back weekends to end the regular season and for the first round of the playoffs. I'd love to be proven wrong though and to have SCSU drop one (or two) against UMD next weekend. 1 Quote
Oxbow6 Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 5 hours ago, brianvf said: I think UND wins 3 of their last 4 and SCSU wins out. SCSU with the #1 seed, UND with the #2 seed and play WMU on back to back weekends to end the regular season and for the first round of the playoffs. I'd love to be proven wrong though and to have SCSU drop one (or two) against UMD next weekend. Agree on how the top 2 will shake out.......and I see UMD making the NCHC tournament in MSP. They are a slepper to win the tournament and get the auto bid. I also think DU is a team to be avoided moving forward. 1 Quote
burd Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 7 hours ago, brianvf said: I think UND wins 3 of their last 4 and SCSU wins out. SCSU with the #1 seed, UND with the #2 seed and play WMU on back to back weekends to end the regular season and for the first round of the playoffs. I'd love to be proven wrong though and to have SCSU drop one (or two) against UMD next weekend. Agree Quote
southpaw Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 There is a chance all of the playoff matchups are the same as the final week of the regular season. Quote
yzerman19 Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 Not sure who is a better playoff draw: WMU or CC...very different styles...both able to steal a game. I think CC is more skilled, but WMU is better coached. Short of a complete collapse, and a bunch of out of the top 16 teams winning their conference tourneys, we are a lock for the NCAAs. We need to be working on the things that work in the NCAAs: special teams, top lines logging a ton of ice, tight officiating Our key to making a nice run at #8 is to make sure CBS is healthy, Cam getting super hot again, getting a timely goal or two from depth players and dmen, winning draws, unveiling a new PP look that teams will not have seen on tape. I'd consider a resurrection of the DOT powerplay, with Boeser setting up shop in Duncs' old office... 3 Quote
burd Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 I found myself thinking of Travis Roche recently, watching the PP struggle. We have some great defense men, but when we do gain possession in the zone, opponents seem to have success by applying pressure on the point. I was remembering how Roche was so good at handling PK pressure on the blue line, often by faking the shot and holding the puck while the defender went down or committed. We have better defenders than Roche was, but we could use a few of his moves to get them to back off the pressure at the blue line. 2 Quote
iluvdebbies Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 (edited) BOLD PREDICTION: SCSU loses two of the last four. UND goes 2-1-1(s/o win) NCHC Standings Team GP Pts North Dakota 24 55 St Cloud St 24 53 Denver 24 50 Miami 24 31 Minnesota-Duluth 24 31 Nebraska-Omaha 24 29 Western Michigan 24 20 Colorado College 24 19 Edited February 22, 2016 by iluvdebbies Quote
fightingsioux4life Posted February 21, 2016 Posted February 21, 2016 3 hours ago, burd said: I found myself thinking of Travis Roche recently, watching the PP struggle. We have some great defense men, but when we do gain possession in the zone, opponents seem to have success by applying pressure on the point. I was remembering how Roche was so good at handling PK pressure on the blue line, often by faking the shot and holding the puck while the defender went down or committed. We have better defenders than Roche was, but we could use a few of his moves to get them to back off the pressure at the blue line. Roche was one of the best skaters we have ever had on the blue line. His skating looked almost effortless, like he was gliding on the ice almost at will. I miss that guy. Quote
Goon Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 3 hours ago, iluvdebbies said: BOLD PREDICTION: SCSU loses two of the last four. UND goes 2-1-1(s/o win) That would be awesome, but I see them winning 3/4 or 4/4. Quote
Blackheart Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 3 hours ago, Goon said: That would be awesome, but I see them winning 3/4 or 4/4. But what about the swoon? 1 Quote
Goon Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 7 hours ago, Blackheart said: But what about the swoon? I don't see it coming this year, unless they play Miami in the playoffs. Quote
UND1981 Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 St. Cloud hasn't faced any adversity this year compared to our squad. I could see UMD taking at least 1 game this weekend if they figure out how to score goals or Lindgren has a bad game. Quote
The Sicatoka Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 Control what's yours to control. UND has an ugly challenge ahead this weekend. That's all that matters. 1 Quote
UND1981 Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 Limit Guentzel and Ortega will be the key. Cags and Nick S. get back on their A game with Boeser this weekend. Quote
GoalieMask Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 This thing ends in a tie, co-champs as both win 3 of 4. Another white banner hung in The Ralph and a first round date with CC for the third straight year. Quote
iluvdebbies Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 3 minutes ago, GoalieMask said: This thing ends in a tie, co-champs as both win 3 of 4. Another white banner hung in The Ralph and a first round date with CC for the third straight year. So you have CC finishing 7th? Quote
UND-RedSox fan Posted February 22, 2016 Author Posted February 22, 2016 I know St. Cloud looked pretty good this weekend, whooping up on UNO, but they split with Miami the previous time out and lost to CC earlier this year. I don't think they are as hot as everyone else says. Quote
burd Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 11 minutes ago, GoalieMask said: This thing ends in a tie, co-champs as both win 3 of 4. Another white banner hung in The Ralph and a first round date with CC for the third straight year. Id rather draw western mich, actually. Quote
iluvdebbies Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 Just now, burd said: Id rather draw western mich, actually. If we end up co-champs with St. Cloud....that's more than likely who we will get. Quote
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 48 minutes ago, burd said: Id rather draw western mich, actually. Purely from a health standpoint I'd prefer CC. Quote
burd Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 27 minutes ago, InHeavenThereIsNoBeer said: Purely from a health standpoint I'd prefer CC. I totally understand that, and almost added a comment about it. They are big and play physical. Quote
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