Bracketology

[petey23]

On ‎10‎/‎24‎/‎2016 at 6:56 PM, petey23 said:

I will take a stab at the playoff picture. I am including teams that still have a chip, a chair, and a chance.

Big Sky

-8 teams fighting for possibly 5 spots, but more than likely 4 spots.

UND(6-2)...control own destiny, win out and likely have a home game and with a little help, possibly a bye. Can afford one slip up but that plummets them to the bottom of the pile, 2 losses and they need a ton of games to go their way. The committee ignored UND playing well at the end of the year last year, they won't ignore UND stumbling down the stretch. 

UND held there spot and one more win should make them a lock, but they have come this far so might as well hang a Big Sky Banner in the rafters as well!

EWU(6-1)...should handle Idaho St. and Portland State and if they beat Montana and Cal Poly they will be a top 4 seed. Lose 1 and they are still in reasonably good shape for a first round bye.

EWU solidified there position.

Weber State(5-2)...probably need to win 3 to get in. Should handle Idaho St. and they have NAU at home so need to pick off UND on the road or Cal Poly at home.

Probably need to win out at this point.

Cal Poly(5-2)...should handle Sac St. and UNC at home. tough games remaining against EWU and at Weber St. With win over Montana and at SDSU they might hang on with 4 losses but probably need to win 3 of 4 down the stretch.

In good position with 2 more victories.

NAU(4-4)...Need to win out and probably hope Western Illinois does the same.

probably reduced to spoiler role at this point.

Montana(5-2)...In good position even with a loss to EWU this weekend. Should finish 8-3 at worst.

Bad news is they have to run the table, good news is, it shouldn't be a problem.

UNC(4-3)...need to win out which would mean running out UND, Montana, and Cal Poly to finish the season.

same status as last week.

S. Utah(3-4)....need to win out and that includes upsetting FBS team BYU.

same status as last week

Big South

--should be one spot available but if Charleston Southern slips up it could cost someone else a slot.

Charleston Southern(4-2)...should run the season out and finish 8-2...finish with Liberty and Kennesaw State who are the teams that could muck things up.

Liberty(4-3)...with their losses to FBS teams SMU and Va. Tech and #2 FCS Jax State they can make a case if they beat Coastal Carolina to finish the season but if they can beat Charleston Southern the week before they will win the conference(assuming they handle their other weak conference games).

Kennesaw State(5-2)....need to run the table and hope Charleston Southern handles Liberty.

Everyone took care of their business this week.

 

Quote

 

CAA

--fighting for 4 spots and good shot at 5.

JMU(6-1)...should handle URI and Elon...2 big road games with Richmond and Villanova sandwiched between those games will determine if they are getting the first week off.

solid weekend

Stony Brook(5-2)....if they can beat UNH this weekend they would need to choke to not make playoffs and at least a share of conference title.

things get dicey now for Stony Brook.

Richmond(7-1)....Huge game with JMU will determine who gets the first week off. Will finish 10-1 or 9-2.

Villanova(6-2)....2 easy games and a matchup with JMU....8-3 probably gets them in.

UNH(5-3)....need to win out, starting with Stony Brook this weekend. Very winnable remaining games.

handled their business on Saturday

Maine(4-3)....need to run the table which includes Stony Brook, Villanova, and New Hampshire.

step one completed

Albany(4-3)....need to run the table and get some help.

step 1 completed

William & Mary(3-4).....need to run the table and have some other teams trip up.

its over

MVC

---likely getting 5 spots.

SDSU(5-2).....2-2 and they are still probably in, 3-1 and they are in a good position, 4-0 and they get a week off.

Week off probably off the table.

NDSU(6-1)....some tough games left, but they are the champs for a reason. Run it out and they are watching the first week. Interesting matchup at UNI as UNI is almost out of rope. If USD wins out to get to 7-3 it might be an interesting game in Vermillion as well. Bison are probably done with the losses part of their season.

Solid win, first round bye and top 4 seed all but assured

Youngstown(5-2)....should finish 3-1 and make the playoffs.

pulled it out again.

USD(4-3)....definitely some meat on the bone left for the Yotes. Need to go 3-1 to have a shot which includes home games with WIU and NDSU and a roadtrip to Brookings.

all but over, however if they beat the teams left on their schedule they will get in....good luck

UNI(3-4).....with NDSU, WIU, and SDSU still on their schedule they probably need to win out although if a 6-5 team was to get in it would probably be them, especially if EWU, Montana, USD, and Youngstown finish strong as 3 of them will likely be in the playoffs.

should be over but we know the committee loves UNI

Indiana State(4-4)....just need to beat NDSU, UNI, and Youngstown......so your telling me their is a chance!

finished

Missouri St.(3-4)....need to win out and get help.

won so I guess they are still kicking

 

NEC

conference winner is in, that should be it.*

St. Francis(5-3)....still have Sacred heart and Wagner on schedule

probably have this in hand

Wagner(4-3)....need to win out.

it's over

Bryant(3-4)....need to win conference games and hope St. Francis loses twice...would probably be in playoffs with a 6-5 record as they have a non conference game with C. Carolina.

finished

Sacred Heart(6-1)....*probably need to win out to win the conference, but if they finish 9-2 with a win over the CAA champion does that give them consideration?

if the loss didn't kill their chances, Stony Brook's loss did

Duquesne(4-3)....need to win out and need St. Francis to dump 2.

won, but didn't get any help

OVC

Should be a 1 bid conference.*

Jacksonville State(6-1)...should run out the season to finish 10-1 and have a weekend off. If they lose a game it could create a quagmire.

handled their business

Tennessee-Martin(4-4)...*.run the table including the finale against Jacksonville State and win the conference and another at large bid disappears.

it's over

Tennessee State(5-2)...*need the above to happened and run the table creating a 3 way tie for first in conference.

it's over

Eastern Illinois(5-3)....*need to run the table and a Tenn-Martin win over Jax  and create a 3 way tie for first.

all done

Patriot

should be a 1 bid conference

Lehigh(6-2)...win out and win conference. lose a game and it gets messy

took care of business on saturday

Fordham(5-2)....need to run the table to win conference.

it's over

Bucknell(3-4)....need to run table to win conference. have Lehigh and Fordham on the schedule.

all done

Georgetown(3-4)....need to run the table and need Bucknell to run the table and the winner of Lehigh and Fordham to lose an additional game.

all done

Pioneer

1 bid conference

San Diego(6-1)...

big win on Saturday

Marist(4-3)...

big loss on Saturday

Dayton(6-2)...

won, so still alive

Jacksonville(3-3)...

won, still in it kind of

Stetson(4-3)....

it's over

Drake(3-4)....

won, on life support

Campbell(3-3)...

all done

 

Quote

San Diego, Marist, and Dayton should control who wins this unless they fall apart and open the door for the rest.

Southern

2 maybe 3 playoff spots.

The Citadel(7-0)...a win against Samford should wrap up the conference...should finish 10-1(loss to FBS North Carolina to finish season)

moving forward

Chattanooga(7-1)...should finish 9-2(finish with Alabama)...if Samford can knock off The Citadel you could have a 3 way tie and a possible 3rd playoff team.

took care of their business

Samford(6-1)...should lose to Mississippi St. this weekend and then have a chance at conference title the following weekend against The Citadel. could finish 9-2 or 8-3. Are they in at 8-3?

next week is all or nothing?

Mercer(4-3)...need to run table and get help....not even sure if they are playoff eligible yet?

done

Wofford(4-3)....if they run table and get to 8-3 with a win over Chattanooga to do it, are they in?

on life support, need help

Southland

probably 2 playoff spots, outside shot at a 3rd.

SHSU(7-0)....should be 10-0 going into season finale against Central Arkansas...possible #1 seed and home playoffs throughout.

won big

Central Arkansas(6-1)....unbeaten in conference and are fairly secure for a playoff spot as long as they win 3 of 4.

moved forward

SE Louisiana(4-3)....cold make things interesting if they run the table including a win over C. Arkansas this weekend. would 8-3 get them in or would they need C. Arkansas to beat SHSU to create a 3 way conference tie?

it's over

 

 

My Prediction on how it shakes out.

Big Sky(4)--UND, EWU, Cal Poly, and Montana

Big South(2)--Charleston Southern and Liberty

CAA(4)--JMU, UNH Richmond, and Villanova(updated)

MVFC(4)--SDSU, NDSU, Youngstown State, and Western Illinois(updated)

NEC(1)-- St. Francis(updated)

OVC(1)---Jacksonville St.

Patriot(1)--Lehigh(updated)

Pioneer(1)--San Diego(updated)

Southern(2)--The Citadel and Chattanooga

Southland(2)--SHSU and Central Arkansas

 

That is 22 spots.

Others in contention

Maine

Stony Brook(updated)

USD and/or UNI(updated)

Samford

Weber State

Kennesaw State

 

 

 

 

Update

[bincitysioux]

It has been around 8 years or so since we could seriously talk about North Dakota's position in a playoff bracket before the season ended, so I figured this topic was worthy of its own thread.  

 

 

 

[bincitysioux]

nobowls.com bracket

 

 

[bincitysioux]

CollegeSportsMadness bracket also has UND vs SDSU with the winner going to Fargo.

[shep]

Playoffs? Talking about playoffs?

[UNDColorado]

Regionalization sucks. 

[bincitysioux]

If the NoBowls bracket held true, I'm not quite sure why they wouldn't send San Diego to Cal Poly...........

[UND-1]

We are going to get hosed by the fact San Diego won the Pioneer and Poly is going to make the playoffs (they will play each other cause of travel).  Last year Western Illinois got spoon fed Dayton in the first round.  That would have been our home game this year, potentially, if any other Pioneer team had won the league.  

They are not flying Maine to San Luis Obispo.  How idiotic is that?  LONGEST FLIGHT EVER.  

[UNDBIZ]

6 minutes ago, UND-1 said:

We are going to get hosed by the fact San Diego won the Pioneer and Poly is going to make the playoffs (they will play each other cause of travel).  Last year Western Illinois got spoon fed Dayton in the first round.  That would have been our home game this year, potentially, if any other Pioneer team had won the league.  

They are not flying Maine to San Luis Obispo.  How idiotic is that?  LONGEST FLIGHT EVER.  

It actually could work out in our favor.  San Diego --> Cal Poly; SDSU --> Montana; WIU --> UND.

[UND-1]

16 minutes ago, UNDBIZ said:

It actually could work out in our favor.  San Diego --> Cal Poly; SDSU --> Montana; WIU --> UND.

SDSU is getting a home game, no doubt about it - Big bid.  

Montana will bid big.  

Poly will bid fairly big cause they are getting around 9-10K for some games and it's too easy for the committee to bus the Torero Nation up there.

We have to hope for Western Illinois, like you said, and for there to be enough opponents left over for Montana and SDSU to play at home also.  

[UND-1]

Where I hope we don't get screwed is having to play at Montana first round because we didn't play them in regular season.  It's still a flight but would be easy for them to do.  

If Faison bids big enough it will pay for a flight from anywhere.  

[UNDColorado]

We need to win this Saturday before we get too deep into speculation! We got left out with 7 wins last year and I wouldn't put it past the committee this year. 

[UND-FB-FAN]

IF UND WINS THEIR NEXT TWO GAMES, Faison needs to bid appropriately, which means UND should be hosting a home playoff game (vs WIU or whoever). No excuse Faison if you understand the importance of football to a college athletic program. IAC said to increase funding to all programs so why not start here? 

[siouxfan512]

7 minutes ago, UND-FB-FAN said:

IF UND WINS THEIR NEXT TWO GAMES, Faison needs to bid appropriately, which means UND should be hosting a home playoff game (vs WIU or whoever). No excuse Faison if you understand the importance of football to a college athletic program. IAC said to increase funding to all programs so why not start here? 

Won't outbid Montana. Might not outbid SDSU. But there is zero reason that we still shouldn't be able to outbid and host Western Ill. 

Question .... IF, and its a big if, UND is able to position themselves for a seed, with 2 more wins, and probably some help, how does that affect the bidding process? Do they still need to place a competitive bid, as though they will not be seeded and wait to see?

[UND-1]

Just now, siouxfan512 said:

Won't outbid Montana. Might not outbid SDSU. But there is zero reason that we still shouldn't be able to outbid and host Western Ill. 

Question .... IF, and its a big if, UND is able to position themselves for a seed, with 2 more wins, and probably some help, how does that affect the bidding process? Do they still need to place a competitive bid, as though they will not be seeded and wait to see?

Yes.  Bids are submitted by Nov. 14th.  UND will have no way of knowing if they are a seed or not so they bid on first round games, regardless.  

[UND-FB-FAN]

3 minutes ago, siouxfan512 said:

Won't outbid Montana. Might not outbid SDSU. But there is zero reason that we still shouldn't be able to outbid and host Western Ill. 

Question .... IF, and its a big if, UND is able to position themselves for a seed, with 2 more wins, and probably some help, how does that affect the bidding process? Do they still need to place a competitive bid, as though they will not be seeded and wait to see?

Well, if seeded, great - no worries. If UND isn't seeded, then UND needs to LEAVE NO DOUBT and make sure to outbid teams like Western Illinois and potentially SDSU, whose pockets are being just speculated on at this point. 

[siouxfan512]

1 minute ago, UND-FB-FAN said:

Well, if seeded, great - no worries. If UND isn't seeded, then UND needs to LEAVE NO DOUBT and make sure to outbid teams like Western Illinois and potentially SDSU, whose pockets are being just speculated on at this point. 

But we wouldn't know if we were seeded, until after the fact anyway, right? So does UND have to just bid, assuming they are not seeded?

[siouxfan512]

[UND-FB-FAN]

Just now, siouxfan512 said:

But we wouldn't know if we were seeded, until after the fact anyway, right? So does UND have to just bid, assuming they are not seeded?

Yes. 

[Dustin]

8 minutes ago, siouxfan512 said:

That would be something if two Big Sky teams were seeded, but only one Missouri Valley. 

[siouxfan512]

8 minutes ago, siouxfan512 said:

Would be thrilled to have a seed, but I'll still admit MT scares me a bit. I think we would play them tough, especially at home, but their pass attack is can really hurt if they are clicking. Wouldn't mind hosting San Diego ... I believe that would be an Arnell vs. Arnell matchup, correct? You heard it hear first, the fix is in ... its all about story lines.

[siouxfan512]

1 minute ago, Dustin said:

That would be something if two Big Sky teams were seeded, but only one Missouri Valley. 

Craig Haley was tweeting that this is very possible this year. The Big Sky had a better out of conference year than the Valley did. MVFC still had a nice year, especially with FBS games, but BSC had a nice year, especially head to head with MVFC teams.

[Oxbow6]

I saw Montana play in Missoula earlier this year.....good not great.  If UND can get anything that resembles a viable offense on the field UND can win that matchup IMO...especially in GF.

[gundy1124]

21 minutes ago, siouxfan512 said:

Won't outbid Montana. Might not outbid SDSU. But there is zero reason that we still shouldn't be able to outbid and host Western Ill. 

Question .... IF, and its a big if, UND is able to position themselves for a seed, with 2 more wins, and probably some help, how does that affect the bidding process? Do they still need to place a competitive bid, as though they will not be seeded and wait to see?

In theory, we can outbid Montana with private funds.  But yes, Montana will bid high.  With us in the picture, these other schools are not real excited about the open bid process.

[jdub27]

29 minutes ago, siouxfan512 said:

But there is zero reason that we still shouldn't be able to outbid and host Western Ill. 

Western Illinois is broke and working just to keep the doors open. They got outbid by Dayton in last year's first round to play in front of 997 people. No one is concerned about having to travel to Macomb.