jimdahl Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 In PWR news, USCHO seems to have changed their PWR tables to match those on this site and CHN, so all three sources should now be identical (except for the occasional data differences, particularly while game results are coming in). Nice to have that controversy cleared up, so there's no confusion which are the right numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoggy Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 In PWR news, USCHO seems to have changed their PWR tables to match those on this site and CHN, so all three sources should now be identical (except for the occasional data differences, particularly while game results are coming in). Nice to have that controversy cleared up, so there's no confusion which are the right numbers. I feel like my first question has been answered but I can't remember. What was the difference in calculations that CHN was using? Any idea why CHN knew to make change that you and USCHO didn't? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snake Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm not directly quoting anybody...but the naysayers are awfully quiet tonight. #12 in the current PRI? Keep winning and UND is right where it wants to be...in the hunt. What's the PRI? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 What's the PRI? Well, duh, it's the acronym for the Institutional Revolutionary Party of Mexico, sheesh. Fixed my post, LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snake Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ha ha, whew! I'm usually on top of this stuff, so I thought I may have missed something with the RPI changes. Wouldn't surprise me if thy decided to throw a new ranking system in the mix and involve Mexico somehow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 I feel like my first question has been answered but I can't remember. What was the difference in calculations that CHN was using? Any idea why CHN knew to make change that you and USCHO didn't? The NCAA announcement said this: The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) is calculated using three factors with weightings as follows: 25% Winning Percentage, 21% Opponents’ Winning Percentage, and 54% Opponents’ Opponents’ Winning Percentage. In calculation of the index, wins on the road and losses at home shall have a weighting factor of 1.2. Wins at home and losses on the road shall have a weighting factor of 0.8. All neutral-site games have a weighting factor of 1.0. A tie is one-half of a win and one-half of a loss, so home/road ties are treated accordingly for the teams involved. There are two legitimate ways to interpret that description of the weightings: apply them to the win%, or apply them to all three components (the entire game). USCHO applied the weights to just the win% (based on comments they made on their forum, primarily because that's what basketball does), whereas CHN applied them to all three components. I decided I preferred the CHN implementation, so adopted it. I think it's a very good sign that USCHO has come to agree. I don't think they would make this change, and thus reveal they were wrong, unless they had pretty good evidence that the CHN implementation was correct. So, I think we can now have pretty good confidence that this PWR matches what the committee will do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 According to your predictions Jim it would appear that UND had a lot go their way this weekend(outside of the sweep) as you showed only about an 8% chance they'd end up at #12 with two wins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 According to your predictions Jim it would appear that UND had a lot go their way this weekend(outside of the sweep) as you showed only about an 8% chance they'd end up at #12 with two wins Yep, and most surprisingly the things that I would have claimed would have helped them the most (Denver and Maine getting swept) did not occur. Not much to say other than that the 8% chance events do occur sometimes (I suppose about 1 out of 12 times, right?) I'm curious whether this "over achieving" means the 12 spot is particularly precarious, and should have that info within a day or so. If I get a chance I might try to look into why UND ended up at the upper end of its likely outcomes this week, but it wasn't immediately obvious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big A HG Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siouxphan27 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I miss the days when a pair wise ranking simply involved going to Hooters with a few pals and the judging was done over a few cold ones. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 I miss the days when a pair wise ranking simply involved going to Hooters with a few pals and the judging was done over a few cold ones. There is definitely still beer involved. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yep, and most surprisingly the things that I would have claimed would have helped them the most (Denver and Maine getting swept) did not occur. Not much to say other than that the 8% chance events do occur sometimes (I suppose about 1 out of 12 times, right?) I'm curious whether this "over achieving" means the 12 spot is particularly precarious, and should have that info within a day or so. If I get a chance I might try to look into why UND ended up at the upper end of its likely outcomes this week, but it wasn't immediately obvious. Yup looks like we got lucky. I was thinking the exact thing about the ranking being precarious so if you made me guess I would say 9-10 with a sweep 14-15 with a split and 18-19 if getting swept. However you need to understand that there is absolutely no math behind these predictions, just guessing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 It didn't take much digging to find out that the teams just ahead of UND in the PWR really paved the path for UND last weekend: Cornell (got swept) Vermont (got swept) Duluth (got swept) Colgate (two ties) Providence (lost and tied) KRACH had put the combined odds of enough of that happening to let UND jump to #12 around 8%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 UNH at BU today, jimdahl. I'd have to think this game affects UND's current ranking as well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 There is definitely still beer involved. Diiidd someone say Bbeer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 UNH at BU today, jimdahl. I'd have to think this game affects UND's current ranking as well... I would think we want BU to win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I would think we want BU to win? I would agree...fire Hak if Dick Umile and UNH win at Agganis? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 I would think we want BU to win? In the long run, yes. I don't actually see it affecting the ranking today (though I'm not really well set up to do one offs like this, so its possible I messed up). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willythekid Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Tis the season when wins don't help much but losses can bury you... hang on, it about to get interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squirtcoach Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I was looking at conference races this AM. Top 1-5 in NCHC played in the WCHA last year. #1&2 in pig ten, Minnesota and Wisconsin. 3 of top 4 in current WCHA are from the 'old' WCHA. What a solid conference that was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I was looking at conference races this AM. Top 1-5 in NCHC played in the WCHA last year. #1&2 in pig ten, Minnesota and Wisconsin. 3 of top 4 in current WCHA are from the 'old' WCHA. What a solid conference that was. That sure is a telling stat, isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackheart Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Too bad we couldn't have kept the old band (WCHA) together...really miss those trips to Mettlers, I mean Mankato... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Too bad we couldn't have kept the old band (WCHA) together...really miss those trips to Mettlers, I mean Mankato... Mettlers...I still thank them for easing some of the pain after the Sioux got pounded by Mankato in a sweep there...I think that was 2004 or 2005... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nodak651 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 10! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackheart Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Mettlers...I still thank them for easing some of the pain after the Sioux got pounded by Mankato in a sweep there...I think that was 2004 or 2005... I was there for that one...I think MSU had Backes and Grant Stephenson? playing for them then...it was an ugly crowd...literally...my brother got challenged to a fight in the bathroom there waiting to take a piss...just standing there waiting with his 7 year old son...I prefer to remember the 10 spot UND put on them one year or the Vande Velde goal at the end of the 3rd beating 2 defenseman and the goalie with 10 seconds to go... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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