(PWR) PairWise Rankings - 2009

[The Whistler]

Except that we inexplicably tied and then lost to Duluth.

Not inexplicably, they had one of those "hot goalies."

Our record otherwise is better than theirs: 3 more wins, 2 more losses. They've got 6 ties while we have 3.

[Goon]

Not inexplicably, they had one of those "hot goalies."

Our record otherwise is better than theirs: 3 more wins, 2 more losses. They've got 6 ties while we have 3.

That means they have kissed their sister three more times than us

[Sioux_Hab-it]

That means they have kissed their sister three more times than us

Whose sister in Duluth are we talking about

[AZSIOUX]

i have no problem with the rankings. they are the same every season although i do agree with some points of change maybe noted above but we have about 3 losses that have really made it a uphill climb more than usual for the sioux. keep winning and we will be very nice in the end!! go sioux

[stickboy1956]

i have no problem with the rankings. they are the same every season although i do agree with some points of change maybe noted above but we have about 3 losses that have really made it a uphill climb more than usual for the sioux. keep winning and we will be very nice in the end!! go sioux

Also - the system was not designed track movement from week to week, due to factors like strength of schedule, etc. that go into the RPI formula.

What matters is the body of work for the entire season.

[siouxweet]

Hey Jim, hypothetically(sp) how high up could the Sioux finish in the pairwise 5 or 6 if we keep up our current trend.

[jimdahl]

Hey Jim, hypothetically(sp) how high up could the Sioux finish in the pairwise 5 or 6 if we keep up our current trend.

With the standard caveat that I'm only running through the end of the regular season (which is a big deal now that there are only 5 reg. season games but probably 4 post-season that will contribute to PWR).

If the Sioux win out, anywhere from #4-#7 is likely with #5-#6 most likely. #2 is possible (it occurred in 16 of 1,000,000 simulations). Clearly if winning out were the case, a 1 seed would be a realistic hope if that level of success were carried into the conference tournament (remember 6-8 weeks ago when people were guessing that the Sioux couldn't make the tourney at large?)

Win 3 of the 5 instead, and they're looking at #9-#12. A tournament berth would still be quite likely, but bad execution in the conference tournament and a little bad luck could put them on the bubble.

[farce poobah]

With the standard caveat that I'm only running through the end of the regular season (which is a big deal now that there are only 5 reg. season games but probably 4 post-season that will contribute to PWR).

If the Sioux win out, anywhere from #4-#7 is likely with #5-#6 most likely. #2 is possible (it occurred in 16 of 1,000,000 simulations). Clearly if winning out were the case, a 1 seed would be a realistic hope if that level of success were carried into the conference tournament (remember 6-8 weeks ago when people were guessing that the Sioux couldn't make the tourney at large?)

Win 3 of the 5 instead, and they're looking at #9-#12. A tournament berth would still be quite likely, but bad execution in the conference tournament and a little bad luck could put them on the bubble.

Most years, the conference champions in the big conferences are getting at-large bids and are "in" regardless of how they do at the conference tournaments. THIS year, the WCHA final five may get a lot more intense - especially if there's upsets - with a "win or season over" mentality.

Given the likelihood that CCHA, Hockey East, and ECAC also may have upset winners, I think you have to be inside #10 to really be comfortable.

[stickboy1956]

as of 11pm central time we are 12 in Pwr according to CHN

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/ncaapwcr.php

In RPI we are .0012 behind Yale and .0013 behind Miami. If we can pass those team's tonight we could move up to 10 (actually tie with Cornell and NH for 8th).

Next 2 weeks we can make up some more ground in RPI by playing top 20 teams.

[AZSIOUX]

sioux up to 11 , movin on up

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/ncaapwcr.php

[RedFrog]

Mankato is right on the cliff at #26 in the RPI. A win v UNO should get them back into TUC status. That would flip a comparison or 2 for us in our favor.

[redwing77]

I know that Yale lost and that helps us, but how did the other results affect us?

[jimdahl]

I know that Yale lost and that helps us, but how did the other results affect us?

Yale defeating Princeton would have helped if Brown also had. We definitely came out on the bottom end of my forecast this week. Here are the games that I noted would swing the PWR the most and their outcomes, in order of importance:

Cornell to lose swept by Rennselaer/Union (boosts UND’s PWR 1.04)

Princeton to lose swept by Brown/Yale (boosts UND’s PWR .84)

Michigan Tech (at least 1) over Minnesota-Duluth (boosts UND’s PWR .48; .64 with a sweep)

Michigan (at least 1) over Ohio State (boost UND’s PWR .50; .62 with a sweep)

Colorado College (at least 1) over Minnesota (boosts UND’s PWR .43; .50 with a sweep)

Northern Michigan (sweep) over Miami (boosts UND’s PWR .45; UND harmed .02 with a single win)

Boston College (at least 1) over New Hampshire (boosts UND’s PWR .38; .43 with a sweep)

Wisconsin (at least 1) over Denver (boosts UND’s PWR .33; .41 with a sweep)

UND did their job, but didn't get much help.

[AZSIOUX]

Yale defeating Princeton would have helped if Brown also had. We definitely came out on the bottom end of my forecast this week. Here are the games that I noted would swing the PWR the most and their outcomes, in order of importance:

UND did their job, but didn't get much help.

then its even more imporant we did our job. cant wait to see the projections for this week. thanks jim

[SiouxFanInBoston]

Boston College (at least 1) over New Hampshire (boosts UND

[siouxweet]

Yale defeating Princeton would have helped if Brown also had. We definitely came out on the bottom end of my forecast this week. Here are the games that I noted would swing the PWR the most and their outcomes, in order of importance:

UND did their job, but didn't get much help.

we did move up one spot, it wasn't that bad. as if you look over the course of the past few weeks UND hasn't gotten much help at all and we still have moved up. hey if msu wins on tues maybe we'll move up another spot or two.

[jimdahl]

BC actually got swept by UNH, so that didn't help either (although I can't feel that badly about BC being swept).

Thanks -- post fixed.

[rochsioux]

The current pairwise from SS.com:

1 Boston University 24 0.5967 23-5-4 0.7812

2 Notre Dame 22 0.5830 25-5-3 0.8030

3 Michigan 22 0.5706 24-10-0 0.7059

4 Denver 20 0.5595 19-9-4 0.6562

5 Vermont 20 0.5584 17-8-5 0.6500

6 Princeton 18 0.5545 20-7-0 0.7407

7 Northeastern 17 0.5677 20-8-4 0.6875

8 Cornell 16 0.5508 17-6-4 0.7037

9 New Hampshire 16 0.5506 16-9-5 0.6167

10 Miami 16 0.5477 18-9-5 0.6406

11 North Dakota 15 0.5486 20-11-3 0.6324

12 Yale 14 0.5476 19-6-2 0.7407

13 Minnesota-Duluth 12 0.5424 16-9-7 0.6094

14 St. Lawrence 11 0.5305 17-11-4 0.5938

15 Ohio State 10 0.5386 19-11-4 0.6176

16 Colorado College 9 0.5333 16-9-8 0.6061

17 Wisconsin 8 0.5298 16-13-3 0.5469

18 Air Force 8 0.5297 22-8-2 0.7188

19 Minnesota 6 0.5284 13-11-6 0.5333

20 St Cloud St 6 0.5257 17-13-2 0.5625

21 Mass.-Lowell 4 0.5254 15-13-2 0.5333

22 Boston College 3 0.5257 13-12-5 0.5167

23 Alaska 2 0.5219 15-11-6 0.5625

24 Massachusetts 1 0.5098 14-15-3 0.4844

25 RIT 0 0.5087 20-10-2 0.6562

UMass has entered the top 25 this w/e.

Should UMass be in the top 25? I realize that their RPI is in the top 25 but this year the NCAA also added:

Selection Requirements. To be considered during the at-large selection process, a team must have an overall won-lost record of .500 or better.

UMass is currently 14-15-3 and thus ineligible to be in the tourny. If they can't be in the tourny should they still be a TUC ?

[siouxweet]

The current pairwise from SS.com:

1 Boston University 24 0.5967 23-5-4 0.7812

2 Notre Dame 22 0.5830 25-5-3 0.8030

3 Michigan 22 0.5706 24-10-0 0.7059

4 Denver 20 0.5595 19-9-4 0.6562

5 Vermont 20 0.5584 17-8-5 0.6500

6 Princeton 18 0.5545 20-7-0 0.7407

7 Northeastern 17 0.5677 20-8-4 0.6875

8 Cornell 16 0.5508 17-6-4 0.7037

9 New Hampshire 16 0.5506 16-9-5 0.6167

10 Miami 16 0.5477 18-9-5 0.6406

11 North Dakota 15 0.5486 20-11-3 0.6324

12 Yale 14 0.5476 19-6-2 0.7407

13 Minnesota-Duluth 12 0.5424 16-9-7 0.6094

14 St. Lawrence 11 0.5305 17-11-4 0.5938

15 Ohio State 10 0.5386 19-11-4 0.6176

16 Colorado College 9 0.5333 16-9-8 0.6061

17 Wisconsin 8 0.5298 16-13-3 0.5469

18 Air Force 8 0.5297 22-8-2 0.7188

19 Minnesota 6 0.5284 13-11-6 0.5333

20 St Cloud St 6 0.5257 17-13-2 0.5625

21 Mass.-Lowell 4 0.5254 15-13-2 0.5333

22 Boston College 3 0.5257 13-12-5 0.5167

23 Alaska 2 0.5219 15-11-6 0.5625

24 Massachusetts 1 0.5098 14-15-3 0.4844

25 RIT 0 0.5087 20-10-2 0.6562

UMass has entered the top 25 this w/e.

Should UMass be in the top 25? I realize that their RPI is in the top 25 but this year the NCAA also added:

Selection Requirements. To be considered during the at-large selection process, a team must have an overall won-lost record of .500 or better.

UMass is currently 14-15-3 and thus ineligible to be in the tourny. If they can't be in the tourny should they still be a TUC ?

I don't think that matters as you can still be a TUC but just won't be able to make the tournament with a losing record. plus i don't think they'llbe one for long as BU should take care of them this weekend.

[squirtcoach]

The UMass situation is an interesting one. If a team is not eligible then they are not under consideration, no? Granted, the PWR before the end of the season is an excercise of fantasy, but if you trying to mimic the end of the season 'today', I would venture the NCAA would not have UMass as a TUC.

[jimdahl]

Here's what the championship handbook has to say:

To be considered during the at-large selection process, a team must have an overall won-lost record of .500 or better.

Results versus teams under consideration (“teams under consideration” defined as those teams that finish in the Top 25 of the final RPI, does not automatically include conference automatic qualifiers, unless those teams meet this criteria). This category if used only if the two teams being compared have played a minimum of ten games versus “teams under consideration”.

I could see it going either way -- don't compare to them as a TUC because they're not .500, or count them as a TUC but just don't pick them at large. However, to me the latter seems slightly more consistent with the way the NCAA usually implements such rules.

In the face of such ambiguity, I usually just have the PWR calculation do what CHN & USCHO do on the possibility one of them got the scoop from the committee and because people like the consistency. If it occurs this year that there's a sub .500 in the top 25, there's a small chance we'll be able to tell based on who gets selected.

[nodakvindy]

A lot still depends on whether Dartmouth can regain TUC status. If they don't then it's highly likely that none of Cornell (at least against UND), Yale or Princeton will make the 10 game TUC requirement and that category will get thrown out of the comparisons. In that case, those comparisons will essentially be RPI only.

Yale losing to Princeton was better, because the Princeton comparison is still flippable, but a Yale win would have made the Yale-UND comparison almost impossible to flip, especially if Dartmouth is a TUC.

While UND did not appear to move up a great deal, when you look at the RPIs now, the Sioux could make up a great deal of ground with a sweep of CC and just a little help. Remember that this is the last weekend for the top CCHA and ECAC clubs, and they will be off when UND travels to Madison. Should the Sioux win their last four games, a move up to even 5 is possible.

Teams to root for next weekend

Michigan State - (2 vs Notre Dame), will help RPI and help Sioux in COP comparison with Irish

Air Force - (2 vs RIT) sweep would knock RIT from TUC status, allowing Dartmouth or Mankato to potentially move up.

Boston U - (2 vs UMass) will knock UMass from TUC status, doubly beneficial

Ohio State/Miami - split will keep either from gaining ground in RPI

Harvard - win vs. Princeton will help UND in COP comparison with Tigers

Cornell - win vs Yale will help UND in COP comparison with Bulldogs. UND should pass Cornell in RPI with sweep of CC, since win over Brown would be thrown out for RPI purposes.

Merrimack - even if UNH sweeps them, UND can possibly pass them in RPI with sweep of CC

St. Cloud - besides helping to give some breathing room in the league standings. A DU loss along with sweep of CC will flip COP and overall comparison to UND.

[mikejm]

Just win, baby.

[Speez]

Just win, baby.

Looks just like your avatar aged about 40 years.

Must be the Sioux early season starts wearing on you.

[RedFrog]

What would be our preferred outcome of the Vermont/New Hampshire series this weekend?