(PWR) PairWise Rankings - 2009

[siouxhockeyfan11]

New Hamprshire losing we're still only 18 points behind them in RPI.

[siouxweet]

New Hamprshire losing we're still only 18 points behind them in RPI.

however if we split and they split they will still haver a better rpi than us.

[stickboy1956]

Here's what the championship handbook has to say:

I could see it going either way -- don't compare to them as a TUC because they're not .500, or count them as a TUC but just don't pick them at large. However, to me the latter seems slightly more consistent with the way the NCAA usually implements such rules.

In the face of such ambiguity, I usually just have the PWR calculation do what CHN & USCHO do on the possibility one of them got the scoop from the committee and because people like the consistency. If it occurs this year that there's a sub .500 in the top 25, there's a small chance we'll be able to tell based on who gets selected.

Using Slack.net "Do your own rankings," a win by Mankato tonight bumps our RPI to .5495 (currently .5486), UNO win drops our RPI to .5476, a tie drops the RPI to .5485.

Where we end up in the PWR depends on whether or not UMass is considered a TUC, because their record is below .500.

Slack.net default calculation settings do not include teams below .500 and their PWR rankings are different than UCHO/CHN.

Without UMass as a TUC we are currently 10 in the PWR (via Slack.net)

http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2009

1 Boston Univ 23 .5970

2 Notre Dame 22 .5828

3 Michigan 21 .5706

4 Denver U 19 .5595

5 NorthEastern 18 .5675

6 Vermont 18 .5582

7 Princeton 17 .5546

8 Cornell 15 .5508

9 New Hampshire 15 .5504

10 North Dakota 15 .5486

11 Miami 14 .5477

12 Yale 13 .5476

13 Minn-Duluth 11 .5424

14 Ohio State 9 .5386

15 CO College 8 .5333

16 St Lawrence 8 .5306

With Mass as a TUC we are 11 in the PWR (via USCHO)

1 Boston University 24 .5970*

2t Notre Dame 22 .5828*

2t Michigan 22 .5706

4t Denver 20 .5595

4t Vermont 20 .5582

6 Princeton 18 .5546*

7 Northeastern 17 .5675

8t Cornell 16 .5508

8t New Hampshire 16 .5504

8t Miami 16 .5477

11 North Dakota 15 .5486

12 Yale 14 .5476*

13 Minnesota-Duluth 12 .5424

14 St. Lawrence 11 .5306

15 Ohio State 10 .5386

16 Colorado College 9 .5333

You see how this could be a big deal for teams on the bubble (12-14) and would impact the seedings.

[siouxweet]

Using Slack.net "Do your own rankings," a win by Mankato tonight bumps our RPI to .5495 (currently .5486), UNO win drops our RPI to .5476, a tie drops the RPI to .5485.

Where we end up in the PWR depends on whether or not UMass is considered a TUC, because their record is below .500.

Slack.net default calculation settings do not include teams below .500 and their PWR rankings are different than UCHO/CHN.

Without UMass as a TUC we are currently 10 in the PWR (via Slack.net)

http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2009

1 Boston Univ 23 .5970

2 Notre Dame 22 .5828

3 Michigan 21 .5706

4 Denver U 19 .5595

5 NorthEastern 18 .5675

6 Vermont 18 .5582

7 Princeton 17 .5546

8 Cornell 15 .5508

9 New Hampshire 15 .5504

10 North Dakota 15 .5486

11 Miami 14 .5477

12 Yale 13 .5476

13 Minn-Duluth 11 .5424

14 Ohio State 9 .5386

15 CO College 8 .5333

16 St Lawrence 8 .5306

With Mass as a TUC we are 11 in the PWR (via USCHO)

1 Boston University 24 .5970*

2t Notre Dame 22 .5828*

2t Michigan 22 .5706

4t Denver 20 .5595

4t Vermont 20 .5582

6 Princeton 18 .5546*

7 Northeastern 17 .5675

8t Cornell 16 .5508

8t New Hampshire 16 .5504

8t Miami 16 .5477

11 North Dakota 15 .5486

12 Yale 14 .5476*

13 Minnesota-Duluth 12 .5424

14 St. Lawrence 11 .5306

15 Ohio State 10 .5386

16 Colorado College 9 .5333

You see how this could be a big deal for teams on the bubble (12-14) and would impact the seedings.

will a mankato win be enough to get them to be a TUC and ifso how many spots would we move up?

[RedFrog]

will a mankato win be enough to get them to be a TUC and ifso how many spots would we move up?

When I ran it, Mankato moved up to #24 in the RPI, making them a TUC, thus moving us to #10 in the Pairwise(tied for 8th w/ Cornell and New Hampshire). Miami would be the team to suffer the most(falling to 12), having 3 comparison's flipped against them (UND/DU/Yale).

Now take into consideration what stickboy said about the sub .500 team not being a TUC as Mankato would only be 14-15-3. I'm not sure how this would affect Mankato's position as a TUC.

[stickboy1956]

will a mankato win be enough to get them to be a TUC and ifso how many spots would we move up?

We move up to 10 with a MSU win (even if -500 teams are not TUC's).

[jimdahl]

You see how this could be a big deal for teams on the bubble (12-14) and would impact the seedings.

Thanks for the info, it seems like we'll definitely be able to tell which it way is if the situation arises.

UMass, 0.5097 (#24), 14-15-3

Too many wins will push them over .500, too many losses will push them out of the top 25 RPI. It'll be difficult for them to thread the needle, but it's certainly possible. In addition to Mankato, NMU or Maine could conceivably also get into the same situation.

[stickboy1956]

Thanks for the info, it seems like we'll definitely be able to tell which it way is if the situation arises.

UMass, 0.5097 (#24), 14-15-3

Too many wins will push them over .500, too many losses will push them out of the top 25 RPI. It'll be difficult for them to thread the needle, but it's certainly possible. In addition to Mankato, NMU or Maine could conceivably also get into the same situation.

If I recall, doesn't the "committee" have some sort of presser the week before selection Sun (the week of the F5)? I seem to recall USCHO/CHN covering this.

If so this question would be an important one to ask.

[brianvf]

Thanks for the latest PWR blog post, Jim!

Always informative...

[jimdahl]

Thanks for the latest PWR blog post, Jim!

Always informative...

You beat me to posting in this thread

There's a lot more prose than usual, including some inspired by the discussions in this thread, so I'll actually link to the post instead of just including the charts...

Feb. 25 PWR forecast

I was waiting until today so last night's result would be included. Given the small number of games next weekend, I also did a two week run. UND's chart from that run is included in the post, but the "who to cheer for" was not noticeably superior to the one-week version and a little harder to interpret so I didn't do anything with it.

[AZSIOUX]

SWEEP THESE DAMN TIGERS!!

[mikejm]

I think jim's charts point out how volatile this whole thing is now. The Sioux really don't have a luxury of phoning in a game or two in these next two weeks. They might need to win out to be really "safely in" the tournament.

Damn those losses out east in October and that doggone GLI stinker really came back to haunt them...

[RedFrog]

One thing I think we all need to remember too is that the battle for PWR positioning is not over after the regular season ends. There are still 2 weeks of games that will count towards the PWR. This thing is long from over and a loss or 2 will not be life threatening. What will really be big is the 1st round WCHA playoff series. We won't be able to afford to drop one there if we lose 2 or more prior to that.

Losses hurt a lot more than wins help at this point.

[AZSIOUX]

One thing I think we all need to remember too is that the battle for PWR positioning is not over after the regular season ends. There are still 2 weeks of games that will count towards the PWR. This thing is long from over and a loss or 2 will not be life threatening. What will really be big is the 1st round WCHA playoff series. We won't be able to afford to drop one there if we lose 2 or more prior to that.

Losses hurt a lot more than wins help at this point.

yes, many games left for all to tank or keep improving

[jimdahl]

One thing I think we all need to remember too is that the battle for PWR positioning is not over after the regular season ends. There are still 2 weeks of games that will count towards the PWR. This thing is long from over and a loss or 2 will not be life threatening. What will really be big is the 1st round WCHA playoff series. We won't be able to afford to drop one there if we lose 2 or more prior to that.

Good reminder. I was pondering the likely impact of the conference tournament the other day and it occurred to me that one problem is that due to our success, the first round opponent will be weak so the games won't be worth nearly as much as the CC and UW games. Looking at UND's RPI breakdown, you can see that our win over UW gives us .6530, a win over CC is .6385, but a win over MTech is only .5848. That's slightly higher than our likely RPI of .54-.55 and there will be some COP benefit, but those games might present significantly more downside potential than upside. As you said...

Losses hurt a lot more than wins help at this point.

It's conceivable that going 2-1 in the opening round then splitting the Final Five games would leave us about where we were going in.

[mikejm]

It's conceivable that going 2-1 in the opening round then splitting the Final Five games...

Hey!

I don't care if this is your board.

There will be no talk like this around here, young man...

[stickboy1956]

Good reminder. I was pondering the likely impact of the conference tournament the other day and it occurred to me that one problem is that due to our success, the first round opponent will be weak so the games won't be worth nearly as much as the CC and UW games. Looking at UND's RPI breakdown, you can see that our win over UW gives us .6530, a win over CC is .6385, but a win over MTech is only .5848. That's slightly higher than our likely RPI of .54-.55 and there will be some COP benefit, but those games might present significantly more downside potential than upside. As you said...

It's conceivable that going 2-1 in the opening round then splitting the Final Five games would leave us about where we were going in.

That is why it is important to finish the reg season strong, 3-1 at least. That would build up our RPI to a point where 2-1/1-1 would still get us in the NCAA.

I would like to see what would happen if we run the table - could we crack the top 4 and get a #1 seed? I suppose if one of those wins is against Denver that would help.

The Final 5 is going to be huge for the 3-5 seeds. One team at the Final 5 could lose 2 games (I think the 3rd place game can end in a tie) - that could be enough to push them out of the tournament.

[brianvf]

The latest brackets from USCHO:

Minneapolis

Minn.-Duluth vs. Michigan

North Dakota vs. Princeton

Grand Rapids

Air Force vs. Notre Dame

Miami vs. Northeastern

Bridgeport

St. Lawrence vs. Denver

Yale vs. Vermont

Manchester

Bemidji State vs. Boston University

New Hampshire vs. Cornell

Bridgeport looks to be the easiest bracket...I think DU could easily advance out of there (especially with Bozak back).

I'm not really a fan of the UND bracket. I like that they are in Minneapolis, but a rematch against a tough Princeton team, and then a potential showdown against UMD or UM.

[stickboy1956]

The latest brackets from USCHO:

Bridgeport looks to be the easiest bracket...I think DU could easily advance out of there (especially with Bozak back).

I'm not really a fan of the UND bracket. I like that they are in Minneapolis, but a rematch against a tough Princeton team, and then a potential showdown against UMD or UM.

That's what you get when you are a 3 seed. Would be great to run the table and end up #1 at the Mooch.

[jimdahl]

There will be no talk like this around here, young man...

Sorry -- just grabbed last year's outcome. Consider that a worst case if you'd like. For the record, last year's two losses were the worst in Hakstol's career, but UND also hasn't swept through the tourney since before SiouxSports has been keeping records (1998).

I would like to see what would happen if we run the table - could we crack the top 4 and get a #1 seed?

Fun question, and definitely possible.

I tried to permute enough matchups to give a good overall guide. All assume a sweep of the reg. season:

Two wins against MTech, a win over UMD, and a win over Denver: ~70% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over UW, and a win over Denver: ~80% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over UMD, and a loss to Denver: ~20% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins/one loss against MTech, a win over UMD, and a win over Denver: ~50% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over UW, and a win over Minnesota: ~70% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over SCSU, and a loss to Minnesota: ~30% chance of being #4 or higher

You get the idea...

[siouxweet]

Sorry -- just grabbed last year's outcome. Consider that a worst case if you'd like. For the record, last year's two losses were the worst in Hakstol's career, but UND also hasn't swept through the tourney since before SiouxSports has been keeping records (1998).

Fun question, and definitely possible.

I tried to permute enough matchups to give a good overall guide. All assume a sweep of the reg. season:

Two wins against MTech, a win over UMD, and a win over Denver: ~70% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over UW, and a win over Denver: ~80% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over UMD, and a loss to Denver: ~20% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins/one loss against MTech, a win over UMD, and a win over Denver: ~50% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over UW, and a win over Minnesota: ~70% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over SCSU, and a loss to Minnesota: ~30% chance of being #4 or higher

You get the idea...

when you say #4 do you mean the #4 overall seed?

[jimdahl]

when you say #4 do you mean the #4 overall seed?

Sorry, yes. #4 in PWR, so a 1 seed.

[stickboy1956]

Sorry -- just grabbed last year's outcome. Consider that a worst case if you'd like. For the record, last year's two losses were the worst in Hakstol's career, but UND also hasn't swept through the tourney since before SiouxSports has been keeping records (1998).

Fun question, and definitely possible.

I tried to permute enough matchups to give a good overall guide. All assume a sweep of the reg. season:

Two wins against MTech, a win over UMD, and a win over Denver: ~70% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over UW, and a win over Denver: ~80% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over UMD, and a loss to Denver: ~20% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins/one loss against MTech, a win over UMD, and a win over Denver: ~50% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over UW, and a win over Minnesota: ~70% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over SCSU, and a loss to Minnesota: ~30% chance of being #4 or higher

You get the idea...

Thanks Jim, great work.

Safe to say beating higher ranked (RPI) teams the rest of the year give us a chance to get a #1 seed. In some ways, we should be rooting for the higher ranked WCHA teams to be winning the rest of the way (including Denver), except when they play us.

For example, it would be better for us to face/beat Denver in the Final5 final than see them upset in the semis by Wisco/CC.

[Old Time Hockey]

The latest brackets from USCHO:

Bridgeport looks to be the easiest bracket...I think DU could easily advance out of there (especially with Bozak back).

I'm not really a fan of the UND bracket. I like that they are in Minneapolis, but a rematch against a tough Princeton team, and then a potential showdown against UMD or UM.

I love that bracket! Bring on the Ivy Leaguers! Pay back to UMD for the beating we took at the DECC. Michigan is to us as we are to BC! Michigan would have to play in a hostile (yet not abusive) environment as the Bulldogs would have a great fan base!

[siouxweet]

Sorry -- just grabbed last year's outcome. Consider that a worst case if you'd like. For the record, last year's two losses were the worst in Hakstol's career, but UND also hasn't swept through the tourney since before SiouxSports has been keeping records (1998).

Fun question, and definitely possible.

I tried to permute enough matchups to give a good overall guide. All assume a sweep of the reg. season:

Two wins against MTech, a win over UMD, and a win over Denver: ~70% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over UW, and a win over Denver: ~80% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over UMD, and a loss to Denver: ~20% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins/one loss against MTech, a win over UMD, and a win over Denver: ~50% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over UW, and a win over Minnesota: ~70% chance of being #4 or higher

Two wins against MTech, a win over SCSU, and a loss to Minnesota: ~30% chance of being #4 or higher

You get the idea...

while we go to bed with thoughts of a one seed in our heads. that could bring up an interesting scenario should that happen(which I don't think as we probably won't go 4-0 over the next two weekens). anyway should the top 4 seeds end up being bu,notre dame,michigan and und in that order. would us or michigan get sent out east and the other end up at marriuci? granted should the gophers be a 4 seed that answers that question. I say when its all said an done we'll be the 6 seed.