2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

[jdub27]

12 hours ago, Cratter said:

This was from today...

The most likely amount of deaths in Minnesota according to the experts Walz is listening to say 20,000 Minnesotans will die. 

So his worst case is now 35k deaths?

https://www.fox9.com/news/gov-walz-extends-minnesotas-stay-at-home-order-to-may-4-includes-exemptions

Does this mean there are many differing expert opinions on 5G too?

Middle range, or median, does not necesarrily equal most likely. If it did, than they would have stated it that way. 

 

 

16 minutes ago, Siouxperfan7 said:

Maybe this has been said before, don't have time to scroll thu all the pages, but here is my take:

These numbers of people dying from COVID-19 are grossly over inflated.  The biggest reason why is they are counting everyone that dies WITH COVID-19 ad a Coronavirus death.  Not necessarily people who died FROM COVID-19.  See the difference?  If a stage 4 cancer patient who was given 2 moths to live in February dies today and they do a test and find out they have COVID-19, that goes as a coronavirus death.  If an 80 year old man in a nursing home dies from a heart attack today and they run a test and find out he had COVID-19, it goes a coronavirus death.  These hospitals are doing a disservice to everyone reporting these deaths as Coronavirus deaths.  The overwhelming majority of COVID-19 deaths are people with some other pre existing conditions.  Hospitals need to report the primary cause of death.  If they did, the number of actual COVID-19 deaths would be drastically lower.

There can be up to 20 "causes of death" listed on a medical certificate. Those filling them out are using their best judgements as to what contributed to the death of someone. This is absoltely no different than it has been in the past. If someone has the flu and dies under you exact same scenario, they are counted in the flu death totals. Other than people spreading misinformation about this (looking at you Chris Berg), nothing has changed from how deaths are recorded.

But as long as we're down that path, a Reuters article stated that NY is probably understating COVID-19 deaths because people who are dying at home aren't being tested for the virus and they have seen a significant uptick in the amount of people dying at home. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fdny/at-home-covid-19-deaths-may-be-significantly-undercounted-in-new-york-city-idUSKBN21P3KF

[Nodak78]

it appears both Italy and Spain has turned the corner.  Daily cases have been decreasing and about a week later daily deaths started to decrease.

50% of the deaths in the USA occur in NY, NJ and Michigan.   hopefully these 3 states flatten the curve soon.

[Oxbow6]

1 hour ago, jdub27 said:

There can be up to 20 "causes of death" listed on a medical certificate. Those filling them out are using their best judgements as to what contributed to the death of someone. This is absoltely no different than it has been in the past. If someone has the flu and dies under you exact same scenario, they are counted in the flu death totals. Other than people spreading misinformation about this (looking at you Chris Berg), nothing has changed from how deaths are recorded.

Laura Ingraham is on hold....line 2.

Dr. Scott Jensen is on hold as well....line 3.

Misinformation?? Go ahead and discredit a doctor that goes on the record locally and nationally but make sure you reference an article that basically says if you have a fever, a cough or shortness of breath and you die at home it has to be from COVID. 

[UND1983]

7 minutes ago, keikla said:

Narrator:  It was not, in fact, trending the right way.

Didn't they just say the other day it was?  Maybe I made that up

[MDtoGF]

Since the old thread was locked, I will post this here, I moved my family to Fargo (thankfully wife is still working) for a job that i did remotely and then got laid off from one full day after working in Fargo remotely(office is still closed and job involved b2b selling). If you have read our work it is Seamore Sports. We love covering UND but hope to expand that to cover UND+other under represented sports starting with mens college hockey teams and branching out as we can. I am looking for jobs daily and hope to be employed again soon so we can cover more things with Seamore when things get back to the new normal. If you have not seen our site before I will link it below. Also I will list our paypal.. if you want to see some research or sponsored stories with your name/business on the title and social media coverage, send a donation to the paypal link in the article, and send us a DM. In four years of existence writing on irregular schedules, we have managed to get a fair amount of views (close to or over 10000 views a year), only promoting one article at all. 

https://twitter.com/SeamoreSports

Our article explaining how we started and what's next. We wrote this in October. 

https://seamoresports.com/2019/10/23/looking-ahead-support-independent-journalism/ 

 

 

 

[UNDBIZ]

1 minute ago, UND1983 said:

Didn't they just say the other day it was?  Maybe I made that up

I'd imagine it's a difference of official reports vs what keikla is experiencing.

[Shawn-O]

1 hour ago, UND1983 said:

The Airports are also getting hit hard with very few landing/takeoffs.  This is a tragedy.  

There will be permanent shifts coming out of this as to how business travel is conducted.  

A: Commercial real estate, commercial air transportation, hospitality.

Q: Name three industries I wouldn't want to go near in the foreseeable future.   

https://thepointsguy.com/news/critical-points-future-of-business-travel-coronavirus/

[Oxbow6]

28 minutes ago, UNDBIZ said:

I'd imagine it's a difference of official reports vs what keikla is experiencing.

Somebody better let Cuomo know what really going on then.

[UNDBIZ]

59 minutes ago, keikla said:

Narrator:  It was not, in fact, trending the right way.

I guess I'm not sure where you are in the chain, but is it possible the difference between your experience and official reporting is due to the lag between contraction of the virus, positive test result, hospitalization, and death?  Official reports may be seeing a leveling off of the first 2, but the lag is resulting in you still experiencing an increase in the latter 2?  Sincere question and I'm not meaning to offend at all.  I can't imagine how terrible your job has been the last month.

[UNDBIZ]

36 minutes ago, Shawn-O said:

There will be permanent shifts coming out of this as to how business travel is conducted.  

A: Commercial real estate, commercial air transportation, hospitality.

Q: Name three industries I wouldn't want to go near in the foreseeable future.   

https://thepointsguy.com/news/critical-points-future-of-business-travel-coronavirus/

Also time to adopt some Japanese traditional business greetings/openings.  No to shaking hands.  Yes to opening the meeting with a shot of +62% alcohol 

[jdub27]

49 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

Laura Ingraham is on hold....line 2.

Dr. Scott Jensen is on hold as well....line 3.

It absolutely goes both ways. A lot of clueless people trying to rile people up and also misleading others on what is actually going on.

 

Here's the document Jensen was citing in his commentary. Under the scenario laid out, it is pretty obvious that CoVID was a contributing factor and such is listed as "Probable" based on the information in the scenario. This is in line with how medical experts filling out these forms are directed to do it. On top of that, they regularly go back once information is more clear and more is known, and adjust death totals appropriately, which is why all relevant info is put in these forms. Same thing is done for flu and other viruses. 

 

Here's the guidance from the CDC on how to handle it. Again direct to medical professionals who are trained to use their judgement on what caused people to die.

Quote

Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?
COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II. (See attached Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths)

 

[UND1983]

You can't make this stuff up.  They just stated "two weeks" AGAIN!  How many times is that now?

https://www.inforum.com/newsmd/coronavirus/5036200-Fargodome-eyed-as-field-hospital-site-to-handle-coronavirus-surge

[Shawn-O]

1 minute ago, keikla said:

Yeah, I'm not quite sure.  I don't know how much lag there is between the hospital and state.  That's a very valid question.  We did notice a bit of a leveling off for a few days, but it is increasing again.

Don't get me wrong, we are undoubtedly seeing the benefit of the lockdown.  But while that has slowed the rate of increase, there is still an increase.

Yesterday, we discharged 20% of the current hospital census and admitted new patients equal to 25%.  That kind of turnover, day after day, is an obsurd workload.  And it's not just beds.  Our daily active vent numbers went up minimally, but again, it's the rate of turnover.  20% of those vented today are patients who weren't vented the day before.

God help us if people choose to ignore the lockdown for the sake of Easter or Passover...

Thank you for what you do and for lending your perspective here.  Please keep posting if time permits.   

[Oxbow6]

25 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

It absolutely goes both ways. A lot of clueless people trying to rile people up and also misleading others on what is actually going on.

 

Here's the document Jensen was citing in his commentary. Under the scenario laid out, it is pretty obvious that CoVID was a contributing factor and such is listed as "Probable" based on the information in the scenario. This is in line with how medical experts filling out these forms are directed to do it. On top of that, they regularly go back once information is more clear and more is known, and adjust death totals appropriately, which is why all relevant info is put in these forms. Same thing is done for flu and other viruses. 

 

Here's the guidance from the CDC on how to handle it. Again direct to medical professionals who are trained to use their judgement on what caused people to die.

 

So you have not been feeling well for a few day. Headache, occasional cough and mild fever but on the way to the grocery store you are involved in an auto accident, severely injured. Rushed to hospital. You report your "not feeling well" symptoms plus your symptoms from the accident to hospital staff on admission . They record a fever during your work up. Blood work done. You have COVID. You die in the hospital. What's put on the death certificate as cause of death?

[Nodak78]

30 minutes ago, keikla said:

Yeah, I'm not quite sure.  I don't know how much lag there is between the hospital and state.  That's a very valid question.  We did notice a bit of a leveling off for a few days, but it is increasing again.

Don't get me wrong, we are undoubtedly seeing the benefit of the lockdown.  But while that has slowed the rate of increase, there is still an increase.

Yesterday, we discharged 20% of the current hospital census and admitted new patients equal to 25%.  That kind of turnover, day after day, is an obsurd workload.  And it's not just beds.  Our daily active vent numbers went up minimally, but again, it's the rate of turnover.  20% of those vented today are patients who weren't vented the day before.

God help us if people choose to ignore the lockdown for the sake of Easter or Passover...

First of all thank you all you are doing to help in this recovery.  My observation is the NY state stats depicts a peak of new daily cases and deaths.  Your observation is real time and local to your hospital.  If I understand correctly.  Hopefully your conditions improve soon as well.  Prayers for you.

[jdub27]

3 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

So you have not been feeling well for about a week. Headache and mild fever but on the way to the grocery store you are involved in an auto accident, severely injured. Rushed to hospital. You report your "not feeling well" symptoms plus your symptoms from the accident to hospital staff on admission . Blood work done. You have COVID. You die in the hospital. What's put on the death certificate as cause of death?

It would be determined the same way it always has, whatever the medical professional, who's a trained expert, determines contributed to the death and to what degree. Nothing has changed when people fill out these forms.

[Oxbow6]

2 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

It would be determined the same way it always has, whatever the medical professional, who's a trained expert, determines contributed to the death and to what degree. Nothing has changed when people fill out these forms.

 

[jdub27]

2 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

 

Feel free to read the actual CDC guidelines I posted. If it is considered a contributing factor to the death, it will be listed as such. Which is how it has always been done. Just because people didn't pay attention before doesn't mean it was different.

Are we taking everything that everyone says in those press conferences as 100% accurate now?

[Oxbow6]

28 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

Feel free to read the actual CDC guidelines I posted. If it is considered a contributing factor to the death, it will be listed as such. Which is how it has always been done. Just because people didn't pay attention before doesn't mean it was different.

Are we taking everything that everyone says in those press conferences as 100% accurate now?

Wow......didn't know she was now not an "expert" when addressing the nation. 

So to recap.......

Dr. Birx......fake news

Dr. Jensen......fake news.

[Cratter]

3 hours ago, jdub27 said:

Middle range, or median, does not necesarrily equal most likely. If it did, than they would have stated it that way. 

The middle range (20k) is definately the most likely.

Most likely certainly isn't the upper limit or the bottom limit.

The most likely amount of deaths in Minnesota according to their model is 20k.

Or to put it another way...their best guess is 20k Minnesota deaths.

 

[jdub27]

42 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

Wow......didn't know she was now not an "expert" when addressing the nation. 

So to recap.......

Dr. Birx......fake news

Dr. Jensen......fake news.

Never said either of those things. However I will say that there is plenty of "fake news" or at least plenty of very misleading news from Chris Berg/VNL/POV coming from both ends of the politcal spectrum.

Again, feel free to read the actual source documents yourself and explain to me what they actually say and what has actually changed in how death's are reported compared to the past.

 

26 minutes ago, Cratter said:

The middle range (20k) is definately the most likely.

Most likely certainly isn't the upper limit or the bottom limit.

The most likely amount of deaths in Minnesota according to their model is 20k.

Or to put it another way...their best guess is 20k Minnesota deaths.

You understand what a median is correct (i.e. the middle)? That is not the average and nor is it by definition the most likely. There was zero context that backs up the statement that 20k is the most likely scenario.

[MafiaMan]

Are we Italy yet?  I’m now unemployed and waiting patiently.  My work laptop was disconnected immediately after my meeting with HR and now I’m forced to use my 5G phone too.  Is it any wonder that my testicles, er, tentacles hurt?

[Cratter]

26 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

There was zero context that backs up the statement that 20k is the most likely scenario.

Smh.

According to the IMHE models what is the projected death count for North Dakota?

Is it fair to say that is the median number?

That answer is yes.

Is the projected death count also the most likely scenario based on their projections?

That answer is yes.

[Cratter]

Walzs experts are still projecting 20K deaths in Minnesota.

[Nodak78]

What is the over/under on the IHME model being revised downward in the next 10 days.  My guess is 3 times.