2014 Pairwise rankings

[scpa0305]

I was very uncomfortable when last season I heard our new conference referred to as "The Super Conference" ... "Arrogant" is what I thought. Now, more than halfway through the season the super conf has only one team in top 16 of pairwise. That team, St. Cloud had to lobby to get an invite, as I remember they were not asked at the start. Maybe Norte Dame knew something when they took a pass on their invitation. UND has been winning more of late but based on the pairwise and the natl. polls there really is little on our dance-card that will improve our standing. St. Cloud is out there for a second series so that's a good thing. If we keep winning I would think we'll crack the top 16. Who woulda thunk?

I'm blown away as well with how bad this conference has been. Hopefully this is the outlier year, I still am shocked when I see 5-6 teams with more losses than us so far ahead of us in the PW. The fact Mankato gets the nod instead of us is a crime.

[siouxweet]

I'm blown away as well with how bad this conference has been. Hopefully this is the outlier year, I still am shocked when I see 5-6 teams with more losses than us so far ahead of us in the PW. The fact Mankato gets the nod instead of us is a crime.

that is why I said earlier it is important for them to lose both games this weekend at the minnesota cup to knock their rpi down a few pegs.

[scpa0305]

that is why I said earlier it is important for them to lose both games this weekend at the minnesota cup to knock their rpi down a few pegs.

Agreed.

[petey23]

At first glance it looks like the NCHC has been terrible in non conference games and it 2nd glance it is true that it hasn't been great......but..............maybe in the future they should look at the B10(Mike Eaves) non conference scheduling strategy.

I consider and most who know college hockey would agree that the Hockey East, Big 10, NCHC, and now also the ECAC are the top 4 conferences in college hockey and the AHA and WCHA are without a doubt a notch below these 4.

When breaking down non conference schedules you will find that the Big 10 has split it's non conference games 50/50 with half their games against the lower tier conferences(30-7-4) and half against their peer conferences(16-22-3) while the NCHC has a 38/62 split going 17-7-7 against the lower tier conferences and 18-23-8 against their peer conferences. The ECAC has a similar split as the NCHC at 34/66 going 22-9-4 against the lower tier conferences and 28-28-12 against their peer conferences. Hockey East has left little doubt they are the premier conference in hockey this season by not only playing 71% of their non conference games against their per conferences, but going 42-31-15 in these games while also going 28-8-0 against the lower tier conferences.

I would currently rank our conference 3rd overall with the Big 10 4th but the problem comes in that the leagues are not balanced..... where the Big 10 has 3 pretty good teams and 1 below average team and 2 aweful teams, the NCHC has 1 pretty good team, 6 pretty average teams and 1 bad team.

Laying out the Big 10 and the NCHC you can see how top heavy the Big 10 league is.

If you were rating all the teams from both conferences you would have

Minnesota

SCSU

Bucky

Michigan

UND

WMU

UMD

DU

Miami

UNO

Ohio State

Sparty

CC

Penn State

So while the Big 10 currently has 3 of the top 4 teams between the conferences, they also have 3 of the bottom 4 between them.

[siouxweet]

At first glance it looks like the NCHC has been terrible in non conference games and it 2nd glance it is true that it hasn't been great......but..............maybe in the future they should look at the B10(Mike Eaves) non conference scheduling strategy.

I consider and most who know college hockey would agree that the Hockey East, Big 10, NCHC, and now also the ECAC are the top 4 conferences in college hockey and the AHA and WCHA are without a doubt a notch below these 4.

When breaking down non conference schedules you will find that the Big 10 has split it's non conference games 50/50 with half their games against the lower tier conferences(30-7-4) and half against their peer conferences(16-22-3) while the NCHC has a 38/62 split going 17-7-7 against the lower tier conferences and 18-23-8 against their peer conferences. The ECAC has a similar split as the NCHC at 34/66 going 22-9-4 against the lower tier conferences and 28-28-12 against their peer conferences. Hockey East has left little doubt they are the premier conference in hockey this season by not only playing 71% of their non conference games against their per conferences, but going 42-31-15 in these games while also going 28-8-0 against the lower tier conferences.

I would currently rank our conference 3rd overall with the Big 10 4th but the problem comes in that the leagues are not balanced..... where the Big 10 has 3 pretty good teams and 1 below average team and 2 aweful teams, the NCHC has 1 pretty good team, 6 pretty average teams and 1 bad team.

Laying out the Big 10 and the NCHC you can see how top heavy the Big 10 league is.

If you were rating all the teams from both conferences you would have

Minnesota

SCSU

Bucky

Michigan

UND

WMU

UMD

DU

Miami

UNO

Ohio State

Sparty

CC

Penn State

So while the Big 10 currently has 3 of the top 4 teams between the conferences, they also have 3 of the bottom 4 between them.

I'm not quite sure I would label scsu as a really good team compared to the other teams in the conference, they are good but not head and shoulders above the rest. they got off to a great start and have come back to the pack a little bit, we'll see how the rest of the season plays out.

[tnt]

What is the NCHC conference record against the Big Ten right now?

[petey23]

What is the NCHC conference record against the Big Ten right now?

9-6-0

[jimdahl]

Ok, I have forecasts, including the important "what does UND need to do for the rest of the season":

UND's PWR -- A look ahead

[Oxbow6]

So a potential 16-4-1 run to end the regular season gets UND squad to a solid bubble team at #13 +/- Yikes.........

[siouxweet]

So a potential 16-4-1 run to end the regular season gets UND squad to a solid bubble team at #13 +/- Yikes.........

I just can't see them winning 8 games here on out with this schedule. the 9 game unbeaten streak has come against no one except for western michigan. i see 7-5 or 7-4-1 which will leave them right where they are at in the 17-20 range. it will be win tourney or go home.

[yzerman19]

Sweep 2 of these 4: Duluth, Miami, Western, UNO (only UMD is on the road) Miami and UMD are not playing good hockey right now.

Split with DU, SCSU and 2 of the 4 above

That's 8 wins

If we can't do that, I would argue that we don't deserve to be in the tourney

[siouxweet]

i guarantee you that miami will be on some kind of roll coming into that series, they are too good.

[82SiouxGuy]

This forecast only goes through the end of the regular season. The Pairwise that counts is 2 weeks later after the league tournaments. Those game results also will figure into the final Pairwise rankings, as will the results of a lot of other games. UND will probably be fine as long as they win a few more games than they lose between now and the middle of March, which means winning somewhere between 60-70% of their games. This may be a year when a 3rd place game in the conference tournament will make a difference whether some team makes the NCAA tournament or not.

[Redneksioux]

This forecast only goes through the end of the regular season. The Pairwise that counts is 2 weeks later after the league tournaments. Those game results also will figure into the final Pairwise rankings, as will the results of a lot of other games. UND will probably be fine as long as they win a few more games than they lose between now and the middle of March, which means winning somewhere between 60-70% of their games. This may be a year when a 3rd place game in the conference tournament will make a difference whether some team makes the NCAA tournament or not.

Hopefully you are right. I'm afraid with the nchc ooc record....winning 8 to finish the regular season, 1 loss in the nchc postseason could be the dagger for und.

[SWSiouxMN]

How bout we just do better than 8-4? 9-3 sounds good to me

[siouxweet]

Hopefully you are right. I'm afraid with the nchc ooc record....winning 8 to finish the regular season, 1 loss in the nchc postseason could be the dagger for und.

if say und were to go say 8-4 the rest of the way and were sitting around 13th heading into the nchc tournament, I think if they won three games they would sneek in as a four seed.

[scpa0305]

Sweep 2 of these 4: Duluth, Miami, Western, UNO (only UMD is on the road) Miami and UMD are not playing good hockey right now.

Split with DU, SCSU and 2 of the 4 above

That's 8 wins

If we can't do that, I would argue that we don't deserve to be in the tourney

I honestly think MIami is going to make a push. I saw we sweep DU this weekend and split the Miami weekend.

[Redneksioux]

if say und were to go say 8-4 the rest of the way and were sitting around 13th heading into the nchc tournament, I think if they won three games they would sneek in as a four seed.

It's really a crapshoot. Reality is wins against most nchc teams won't flip too many comparisons in und's way. Losses will really hurt. From here on out if und wins 3 out of 4 they might make it, yet they might not.

[Mariucci]

if say und were to go say 8-4 the rest of the way and were sitting around 13th heading into the nchc tournament, I think if they won three games they would sneek in as a four seed.

That could set up a possible match up against the Gophers in St Paul assuming the Gophers hold onto one of the top seeds. Not a conference foe anymore so we can play in the first round.

[siouxweet]

It's really a crapshoot. Reality is wins against most nchc teams won't flip too many comparisons in und's way. Losses will really hurt. From here on out if und wins 3 out of 4 they might make it, yet they might not.

the biggest thing hurting und right and preventing it from getting into those "bubble" postions is its rpi. the biggest cure for that problem is wins and it won't matter too much who they beat as long as they beat them. so winning eight of the next 12 and three in the nchc tourney "should" get them in.

in reference to marriucci and his thinking that und would or could play minny inthe first round is absolutely correct. my only thinking otherwise would be if minny is the number 1 overall seed and would be slated to playthe 16 seed which could be like air force or someone else from atlantic hockey as they would have earned that right to play the lowest seed. if minny is the number 2-4 seed and und is a 13-15 seed then yes I can't see any other scenario in which they wouldn't under those circumstances.

[scpa0305]

That could set up a possible match up against the Gophers in St Paul assuming the Gophers hold onto one of the top seeds. Not a conference foe anymore so we can play in the first round.

Very true....I would like that a lot.

[jimdahl]

the biggest thing hurting und right and preventing it from getting into those "bubble" postions is its rpi. the biggest cure for that problem is wins and it won't matter too much who they beat as long as they beat them.

And the new wrinkle -- RPI now cares where you win/lose. So, it still doesn't matter who you beat, it matters who you play against (stronger opponents are better) and it matters how much and where you win.

Though it is already factored into the PWR forecast I posted earlier, I will try to put together some more detailed "what can happen to RPI" stats in coming weeks on the RPI details pages (which I used to have there, but have yet to redo with the new formulas).

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

And the new wrinkle -- RPI now cares where you win/lose. So, it still doesn't matter who you beat, it matters who you play against (stronger opponents are better) and it matters how much and where you win.

Though it is already factored into the PWR forecast I posted earlier, I will try to put together some more detailed "what can happen to RPI" stats in coming weeks on the RPI details pages (which I used to have there, but have yet to redo with the new formulas).

Jim, does that put a much larger emphasis on the away games UND has left on the schedule, like Denver, Duluth, and SCSU? I thought I read somewhere that the Bemidji away game(of course the one we tied) would have meant twice as much as a home win in regards to our ranking. If this is true, I would think the St. Cloud series is head and shoulders above the rest of the series in importance, followed closely by Denver and Duluth.

[siouxweet]

Jim, does that put a much larger emphasis on the away games UND has left on the schedule, like Denver, Duluth, and SCSU? I thought I read somewhere that the Bemidji away game(of course the one we tied) would have meant twice as much as a home win in regards to our ranking. If this is true, I would think the St. Cloud series is head and shoulders above the rest of the series in importance, followed closely by Denver and Duluth.

it did because bemidji was non conference so und would have gotten a few extra rpi points if they would have won on friday., scsu, denver and duluth are in conference so you don't get the extra points.

[jimdahl]

it did because bemidji was non conference so und would have gotten a few extra rpi points if they would have won on friday., scsu, denver and duluth are in conference so you don't get the extra points.

The memo USCHO posted didn't say anything about treating conference games differently, but I don't know anything more than what I pieced together from that and CHN's article. Neither USCHO nor I treat conference games differently in our current PWR tables; but, there's no way to be sure any of us have it right until we see what matches up with the actual selections.