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Bracketology 2011


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Posted by Priceless on USCHO:

North Dakota:

Assuming they win all four against Tech, absolutely nothing will change. Tech isn't worth enough to improve their RPI. Their fate is in the hands of other teams. Their problem is that they stand to lose 8 wins and a tie from the TUC record (UAA, Bemidji and Robert Morris).

We know what they have to do to beat Yale.

Assuming they lose the 8-0-1 TUC and lose the TUC game at the F5 would give them a 16-9-2 TUC record. That's a .630 winning percentage.

BC plays UNH twice this weekend and presumably 1 or 2 TUC games at Boston Garden. They can afford to lose one TUC game and still win the component and therefore the comparison as it is mathematically impossible for NoDak to win the COp component.

Merrimack also wins COp and cannot lose it. Odds are that MC will play Northeastern in the Hockey East playoffs, which is not a TUC. Merrimack would have to win Hockey East while playing and defeating two TUC opponents. If MC draws Maine in the QF they will need to go 3-1 or 4-0 in TUC games. They also need RIT (1-0-0) to stay above the TUC cliff. The only team that could become a TUC is Niagara, which would actually hurt Merrimack as they tied the Purple Eagles (not for nothing, but I've never seen a purple Eagle...)

Michigan needs Ohio State and Michigan State to lose out so they don't become TUC. Assuming NoDak's .630 Michigan will have to go 3-1 or better vs TUC opponents. They also have to make up .0265 in the RPI category. Good luck.

Denver has to play and beat North Dakota at the F5 to even have a chance to flip the comparison. Right now they're down 4-1. A H2H win would make it 4-2. The problem for the Pioneers is that they stand to lose 5-0-1 from their TUC record (UAA, BSU) so catching NoDak becomes even more difficult. They must go 4-1-1 or better vs TUC to catch NoDak. Oh, and if all that happens, they still have to close a .0280 gap in RPI.

UNH can flip the comparison by taking at least 3 points from BC this weekend and winning Hockey East while defeating two TUC.

North Dakota is your No. 2 or No 3 seed. They will be a #1 in the NCAA tournament.

In order for UND to be the #1 overall seed (in other words, to pass Yale):

North Dakota is #2 but the Sioux are hurt by the fact that Bemidji State (4-0), UAA (2-0-1) and Robert Morris (2-0) are on the TUC bubble. Also hurting them is that they only have one or two TUC games remaining. They will need the stars to align so that their TUC record is above that of Yale's. They need Cornell and Quinnipiac to fall off and likely will still have to win the WCHA title.
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Their problem is that they stand to lose 8 wins and a tie from the TUC record (UAA, Bemidji and Robert Morris).

Assuming they lose the 8-0-1 TUC and lose the TUC game at the F5 would give them a 16-9-2 TUC record.

Denver has to play and beat North Dakota at the F5 to even have a chance to flip the comparison. Right now they're down 4-1. A H2H win would make it 4-2. The problem for the Pioneers is that they stand to lose 5-0-1 from their TUC record (UAA, BSU) so catching NoDak becomes even more difficult. They must go 4-1-1 or better vs TUC to catch NoDak. Oh, and if all that happens, they still have to close a .0280 gap in RPI.

I think he might have been hinting at this, but Denver gaining the TUC-cliff ground and getting enough wins vs. TUCs strike me as nearly mutually exclusive. Restating the present, the TUC records right now are 23-7-3 vs. 15-7-3, so Denver quite simply needs to gain 8 wins. It can gain 1 by UAA and BSU dropping below .500, 2 more if Robert Morris drops below .500. Give them 2 vs. SCSU this weekend, they still need 3. An opening round sweep of Mankato, BSU, or AA would knock any of those three out of being a TUC, setting Denver back 1-0 or 1-0-1 vs. UND for AA or Mankato (whom UND has only played three times and twice), BUT ahead 2 for BSU (who Denver only played twice). So, Denver could probably take TUC if: they matched up with Bemidji in the opening round and swept, AA and Robert Morris also lost, UND gets bounced in the opening game of the Final Five, and Denver wins at least one game vs. a TUC.

If all that happens, they still need RPI. 2 wins vs SCSU, dropping the now negative win vs. MTech, 2 wins vs. BSU, and 1 win against (say) UND would get them up to about .569. They basically need UND to lose to MTech.

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I think he might have been hinting at this, but Denver gaining the TUC-cliff ground and getting enough wins vs. TUCs strike me as nearly mutually exclusive. Restating the present, the TUC records right now are 23-7-3 vs. 15-7-3, so Denver quite simply needs to gain 8 wins. It can gain 1 by UAA and BSU dropping below .500, 2 more if Robert Morris drops below .500. Give them 2 vs. SCSU this weekend, they still need 3. An opening round sweep of Mankato, BSU, or AA would knock any of those three out of being a TUC, setting Denver back 1-0 or 1-0-1 vs. UND for AA or Mankato (whom UND has only played three times and twice), BUT ahead 2 for BSU (who Denver only played twice). So, Denver could probably take TUC if: they matched up with Bemidji in the opening round and swept, AA and Robert Morris also lost, UND gets bounced in the opening game of the Final Five, and Denver wins at least one game vs. a TUC.

If all that happens, they still need RPI. 2 wins vs SCSU, dropping the now negative win vs. MTech, 2 wins vs. BSU, and 1 win against (say) UND would get them up to about .569. They basically need UND to lose to MTech.

Stop it. You're making my head hurt.

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I personally don't think Wisconsin is going to make tourney when it's all said and done. Unless they make the Final Five and play a couple of games.

I know Minnesota has been playing decent as of late but I don't think they will make the NCAA tourney either. They may get to the final five but I am just not sure yet. We will see who they have to play.

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Stop it. You're making my head hurt.

There's a habit on some sites of anticipating that your own post was overly long and detailed, and including a one-line summary titled "tl;dr" (too long, didn't read) for those who had the good sense not to dive into your post. I've been trying to cap my PWR posts with one-line summaries, but this time split the important stuff across the last sentence of two paragraphs. More succinctly...

While Denver could take UND in PWR, they would pretty much need ALL of the following to happen: Denver draws Bemidji in the opening round and sweeps, AA and Robert Morris also lose, UND loses at least one (preferably more) games vs. MTech AND loses opening game of the Final Five, and Denver wins at least one WCHA Final Five game vs. a TUC.

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Wow, did Moy even put any thought into this weeks brackets?

USCHO Bracketology

First he makes moves to avoid a Denver vs. Duluth matchup, but after all of his moves, he ends up with Denver vs. Duluth again. Plus he has 3 WCHA teams in Green Bay.

I agree. Moy seems to be (exaggeration) A LITTLE OFF. Props to the people commenting on his article to put him in his place.

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Wow, did Moy even put any thought into this weeks brackets?

USCHO Bracketology

First he makes moves to avoid a Denver vs. Duluth matchup, but after all of his moves, he ends up with Denver vs. Duluth again. Plus he has 3 WCHA teams in Green Bay.

I'm not quite sure why he even ranked them from 1-16 to be honest. He might as well of put every team play as close to home as possible so we can re-watch the conference tournaments from the previous weekend. That sounds like fun to me. :glare::silly:

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The NCAA over the past 4 years has made an effort to group the WCHA in one bracket, mainly to avoid the scenario of having an all WCHA frozen 4 (which happened in 2005).

With that said, no team more than Nebraska-Omaha concerncs me with regards to playing the Sioux. In a one game scenario, Dean Blais has the ability to have his team moving on all cylinders. Not that any team is a given win, but I would like to see UNO moved out of the Midwest bracket.

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I don't agree with Moy's brackets, but in his defense, there is this one guideline:

Also, in 2008, they did put 3 WCHA teams in the Madison regional, but there were 6 WCHA teams that made it that year too.

But he's not preserving the integrity of the bracket to avoid matchups.

Fortunately this idiot isn't on the selection committee.

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Moy's revised Bracketology:

USCHO Bracketology

I like our chances in this bracket...the big question in this bracket is how good is Merrimack? UND worked them over a couple years ago but they have shown great improvement this year.

Midwest Regional (Green Bay):

15 Boston University vs. 2 North Dakota

11 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 7 Merrimack

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I like our chances in this bracket...the big question in this bracket is how good is Merrimack? UND worked them over a couple years ago but they have shown great improvement this year.

Midwest Regional (Green Bay):

15 Boston University vs. 2 North Dakota

11 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 7 Merrimack

I didn't have a problem with moy's first bracket and 3 wcha teams in it-what I don't like is the prospect of having to face BU in the first round.

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I didn't have a problem with moy's first bracket and 3 wcha teams in it-what I don't like is the prospect of having to face BU in the first round.

You've got to remember, if there is an upset and a team wins their conference tournament who shouldn't, away goes a team like BU. Those bubble teams need to hope that no team goes on a run and ends up in the tournament, like Duluth did a couple of years ago.

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UMD is a dangerous tournament team because of that one big line...get into penalty trouble or have a couple bounces go the way of a Connelly and you're in trouble.

I hold to the belief that we would beat them 7 outta 10, but in a one and done...anything can happen

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I like our chances in this bracket...the big question in this bracket is how good is Merrimack? UND worked them over a couple years ago but they have shown great improvement this year.

Midwest Regional (Green Bay):

15 Boston University vs. 2 North Dakota

11 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 7 Merrimack

I think Merrimack is pretty good. All of their losses have been really tight games, with the exception of the two recent blowouts in Maine (we know how that feels). Also, they haven't seemed to have lost any clunkers, to lousy teams.

IIRC Merrimack was without DaCosta when they came here last year. He was supposed to be their big stud recruit, and has turned out to be the real deal.

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UMD is a dangerous tournament team because of that one big line...get into penalty trouble or have a couple bounces go the way of a Connelly and you're in trouble.

I hold to the belief that we would beat them 7 outta 10, but in a one and done...anything can happen

Completely agree. It takes one stupid goalie playing the game of his life and you're season is over (see Adam Berkhoel..... :angry: )

I wish BC would run into a situation like that.....they always get the bounces and find their way to the frozen four. I want them to run into a goalie who makes 57 saves, and they lose 2-1.

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