54 replies to this topic

[jimdahl]

Here's what still seems possible to me (it's been years since I've tried doing this, so point out any mistakes):

Team	Current Points	Conference Series Remaining	Possible Final Rankings
UND	32	3	1st-6th
Has secured home ice in WCHA playoffs Can clinch T-5th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch 5th with 2 points this weekend Can clinch T-4th with 4 points this weekend
Denver	31	3	1st-6th
Has secured home ice in WCHA playoffs Can clinch T-5th with 2 points this weekend Can clinch 5th with 3 points this weekend
UMD	30	3	1st-7th
Can clinch 6th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch T-5th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch 5th with 4 points this weekend
Nebraska-Omaha	30	3	1st-7th
Can clinch 6th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch T-5th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch 5th with 4 points this weekend
UW	24	3	1st-11th
Can clinch 10th with 1 point this weekend Can clinch 9th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch T-8th with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 1 point this weekend
CC	22	3	1st-11th
Can clinch 10th with 3 points this weekend Can clinch 9th with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish 1st with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 1 point this weekend
UMN	21	3	T1st-11th
Can clinch 10th with 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-1st with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-2nd with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-4th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
AA	20	2	5th-11th
Can no longer finish 5th with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-5th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
SCSU	19	3	T3rd-11th
Can no longer finish T-3rd with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-4th with fewer than 3 points this weekend
Mankato	18	2	5th-11th
Can no longer finish 5th with fewer than 4 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-5th with fewer than 3 points this weekend Can no longer finish 6th with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish T-6th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
Bemidji State	17	3	5th-11th
Can no longer finish 5th with fewer than 2 points this weekend Can no longer finish 6th with fewer than 1 point this weekend
MTech	4	3	12th-12th
Can no longer earn home ice in WCHA playoffs

[jimdahl]

As to what's actually likely, using the

What-If Calculator

If I give UND two sweeps and a split, the Sioux end with 42. With a sweep and two splits, 40.

Only Denver, Duluth, and UNO would then be within striking distance. BUT, UNO plays Denver and UMD, so there have to be some losses there. It's pretty easy to come up with a three-way tie at the top, (e.g. a scenario like this):

UND 28 40
UMD 28 40
Nebraska-Omaha 28 40
Denver 28 39
UW 28 32
CC 28 28

[Upper Deck]

jimdahl, on 17 February 2011 - 01:38 PM, said:

As to what's actually likely, using the

What-If Calculator

If I give UND two sweeps and a split, the Sioux end with 42. With a sweep and two splits, 40.

Only Denver, Duluth, and UNO would then be within striking distance. BUT, UNO plays Denver and UMD, so there have to be some losses there. It's pretty easy to come up with a three-way tie at the top, (e.g. a scenario like this):

UND 28 40
UMD 28 40
Nebraska-Omaha 28 40
Denver 28 39
UW 28 32
CC 28 28

How are tie-breakers determined?

[GoalieMask]

Upper Deck, on 17 February 2011 - 02:31 PM, said:

How are tie-breakers determined?

That's my question too. I believe there would be a "shared conference champion" like they did with Big 10 Football this year. But the question is, who would get the #1 seed (and the luxury of playing Michigan Tech in the 1st round). Who gets the MacNaughton Cup at season's end?

I think this has happened before. Denver and CC tied and it might have been 1997 (? forgive me if I'm wrong here) when the Sioux and Gophers were co-champs.

Might be a good question for Brad Schlossman.

[Big A HG]

I'm almost positive everyone gets credit as Conference Champion in the event of a tie.

[LeftyZL]

Upper Deck, on 17 February 2011 - 02:31 PM, said:

How are tie-breakers determined?

a) If two or more teams are tied, head-to-head competition during the regular (conference) season will be used to break the
tie.
b) If two or more teams are still tied after (a), the highest seed will go to the team with the most WCHA (conference) wins during
the regular season.
c) If two or more teams played a four-game series during the regular season and the teams have the same win-loss records for
those series and the same number of WCHA wins, the team having the least number of goals scored against it in the four-game series
shall have the higher rank. If two or more teams played a two-game series during the regular season procede to tie-breaker d).
d) If two or more teams are still tied after applying the provisions of (a), (b) and ©, the team having the greatest ‘winning margin’
during the regular season will have the higher rank. Winning margin = WCHA goals for during the regular season minus WCHA goals
against.

[Big A HG]

To be honest, if the Sioux don't win the MacNaughton this year, it will be a bit disappointing. We have, hands down, the most talented team in the WCHA...even the country. Denver has over-achieved, but are still pretty good, so to lose to them would be a bit shocking. Duluth is a real good team, so losing to them wouldn't be as painful, but we are still the better team.

We just have to take care of business.

[Blackheart]

GoalieMask, on 17 February 2011 - 02:36 PM, said:

That's my question too. I believe there would be a "shared conference champion" like they did with Big 10 Football this year. But the question is, who would get the #1 seed (and the luxury of playing Michigan Tech in the 1st round). Who gets the MacNaughton Cup at season's end?

I think this has happened before. Denver and CC tied and it might have been 1997 (? forgive me if I'm wrong here) when the Sioux and Gophers were co-champs.

Might be a good question for Brad Schlossman.

I know that I have read on here before (Sicatoka?) about the Sioux and Gofers tying for the league in 1997 and it came down to the third tie-breaker (goals against between the two teams). The Sioux won the goals against by 1 (I believe) and got the higher seed for the WCHA home playoffs. The Sioux end up meeting the Gofers in the Final 5 title game as the higher seed and accordingly got the last line change. The Sioux won that game on a great play be Peter Armbrust coming off the bench in OT and picking up a deflected shot and putting it past Steve DeBus. As a result, the Sioux got a higher seed in the NCAA's and had to win only 1 game to get to the Frozen Four (beat Cornell 4-2). Minnesota ended up playing Michigan St (Gofs win) and then top seeded Michigan (Gofs lost) in Grand Rapids. So getting that higher seed in the WCHA definitely ended up being an advantage for the NCAAs. I apologize if I didn't capture all the details but it was14 years ago...

[Runninwiththedogs]

Big A HG, on 17 February 2011 - 03:12 PM, said:

To be honest, if the Sioux don't win the MacNaughton this year, it will be a bit disappointing. We have, hands down, the most talented team in the WCHA...even the country. Denver has over-achieved, but are still pretty good, so to lose to them would be a bit shocking. Duluth is a real good team, so losing to them wouldn't be as painful, but we are still the better team.

We just have to take care of business.

I wouldn't worry about Duluth. Blah. I'm very depressed about the team right now. tUMD threw in the towel and now I'm like praying for 3rd place.

[dagies]

Big A HG, on 17 February 2011 - 03:12 PM, said:

To be honest, if the Sioux don't win the MacNaughton this year, it will be a bit disappointing. We have, hands down, the most talented team in the WCHA...even the country. Denver has over-achieved, but are still pretty good, so to lose to them would be a bit shocking. Duluth is a real good team, so losing to them wouldn't be as painful, but we are still the better team.

We just have to take care of business.

As things shape up right now I agree with you. The Sioux have their destiny in their own hands and an easier on paper schedule than their rivals for the top spot.

[mikejm]

dagies, on 17 February 2011 - 04:14 PM, said:

...The Sioux have their destiny in their own hands and an easier on paper schedule than their rivals for the top spot.

UND has one tough series left; Bemidji and Tech are 11th and 12th in the league for crying out loud.
Heck, Jan State is 9th.

There shouldn't be any question of the Sioux winning the league.

[Goon]

Runninwiththedogs, on 17 February 2011 - 03:51 PM, said:

I wouldn't worry about Duluth. Blah. I'm very depressed about the team right now. tUMD threw in the towel and now I'm like praying for 3rd place.

You my friend are sandbagging...

[Runninwiththedogs]

Goon, on 17 February 2011 - 04:39 PM, said:

You my friend are sandbagging...

Meh, you'd feel the same way I did if your team had been freaking blown out by St. Cloud.

[jimdahl]

Runninwiththedogs, on 17 February 2011 - 05:50 PM, said:

Meh, you'd feel the same way I did if your team had been freaking blown out by St. Cloud.

Could still happen

Anyway, my real point in posting was just to confirm that Lefty is, of course, right on the tie-breakers for seeding. Note that there is no tie-breaker for the actual championship, both teams are champs. That question comes up every year... I'm starting a FAQ.

[farce poobah]

Blackheart, on 17 February 2011 - 03:26 PM, said:

I know that I have read on here before (Sicatoka?) about the Sioux and Gofers tying for the league in 1997 and it came down to the third tie-breaker (goals against between the two teams). The Sioux won the goals against by 1 (I believe) and got the higher seed for the WCHA home playoffs. The Sioux end up meeting the Gofers in the Final 5 title game as the higher seed and accordingly got the last line change. The Sioux won that game on a great play be Peter Armbrust coming off the bench in OT and picking up a deflected shot and putting it past Steve DeBus. As a result, the Sioux got a higher seed in the NCAA's and had to win only 1 game to get to the Frozen Four (beat Cornell 4-2). Minnesota ended up playing Michigan St (Gofs win) and then top seeded Michigan (Gofs lost) in Grand Rapids. So getting that higher seed in the WCHA definitely ended up being an advantage for the NCAAs. I apologize if I didn't capture all the details but it was14 years ago...

Good memory there, Blackheart.

Let's take that "Never Say Die" attitude a bit further. In the first of those 4 regular season games, in November in Minneapolis, the Gophers had a 10-3 lead. The Sioux scored three goals in the last 2 minutes to make the final 10-6. Without those three "meaningless" goals, the Sioux lose the tiebreaker.

A great object lesson for the kids ... Never give up, don't ever give up.

[Runninwiththedogs]

jimdahl, on 17 February 2011 - 08:42 PM, said:

Could still happen

Anyway, my real point in posting was just to confirm that Lefty is, of course, right on the tie-breakers for seeding. Note that there is no tie-breaker for the actual championship, both teams are champs. That question comes up every year... I'm starting a FAQ.

I appreciate your attempt to lift my spirits, but really the only thing that will work is two big fat wins this weekend. Eek.

[Oxbow6]

mikejm, on 17 February 2011 - 04:35 PM, said:

UND has one tough series left; Bemidji and Tech are 11th and 12th in the league for crying out loud.
Heck, Jan State is 9th.

There shouldn't be any question of the Sioux winning the league.

You nailed it...really couldn't have lined up any better for UND down the stretch. If UND doesn't win the Cup...FIRE HAK!

[Blackheart]

farce poobah, on 17 February 2011 - 09:07 PM, said:

Good memory there, Blackheart.

Let's take that "Never Say Die" attitude a bit further. In the first of those 4 regular season games, in November in Minneapolis, the Gophers had a 10-3 lead. The Sioux scored three goals in the last 2 minutes to make the final 10-6. Without those three "meaningless" goals, the Sioux lose the tiebreaker.

A great object lesson for the kids ... Never give up, don't ever give up.

Thank you. That was exactly the type of detail I felt I left out...

Sioux Pride! Never dies, it multiplies!

[duluthSioux]

Runninwiththedogs, on 17 February 2011 - 05:50 PM, said:

Meh, you'd feel the same way I did if your team had been freaking blown out by St. Cloud.

I agree, that was totally disgusting to see.

[fightingsioux4life]

Blackheart, on 17 February 2011 - 03:26 PM, said:

I know that I have read on here before (Sicatoka?) about the Sioux and Gofers tying for the league in 1997 and it came down to the third tie-breaker (goals against between the two teams). The Sioux won the goals against by 1 (I believe) and got the higher seed for the WCHA home playoffs. The Sioux end up meeting the Gofers in the Final 5 title game as the higher seed and accordingly got the last line change. The Sioux won that game on a great play be Peter Armbrust coming off the bench in OT and picking up a deflected shot and putting it past Steve DeBus. As a result, the Sioux got a higher seed in the NCAA's and had to win only 1 game to get to the Frozen Four (beat Cornell 4-2). Minnesota ended up playing Michigan St (Gofs win) and then top seeded Michigan (Gofs lost) in Grand Rapids. So getting that higher seed in the WCHA definitely ended up being an advantage for the NCAAs. I apologize if I didn't capture all the details but it was14 years ago...

To go back even further and put even more detail into this, in October 1996, the Rodents swept our Fighting Sioux in Minneapolis. The first game was a 3-2 final, the second game was a 10-6 blowout. On Saturday night (which was the same night of the now-defunct Sioux-Bison football tilt in the Fargodome), the Gophers held a 10-2 lead going into the third. The Sioux outscored the Gophers 4-0 in that period. At the time, it didn't look like much of anything, but it ended up giving us the #1 seed in the WCHA tournament. That helped us beat the Gophers in OT in the title game in the old St. Paul Civic Center and helped us get one of those first round byes in the West Regional, which helped us get to Milwaukee and the Frozen Four, where we won our 6th NCAA title. It's amazing how small, unforgotten details can have huge, unforseen impacts later on.