UND @ South Dakota 11/1/25

[Roger S.]

3 hours ago, Sioux94 said:

Part of that may be due to our 2nd string being in the 4th quarter and teams getting late TD'S. 

Definitely 

[Nodak78]

If the turf is a problem.  Coach will have them take their shoes and play barefoot and the Hawks will win by 17 points.  They have a good rusher, but UND gives up less than 90 yards a gene.  basically, tied with NDSU and about 6th place in the country.  I think 35-17 is about right.  UND is a handful of plays from being undefeated.  UND may lose one more game, but I doubt it.

[forksandspoons]

Hope to see lots of green in Vermillion! 

[GDPritch]

3 hours ago, Nodak78 said:

If the turf is a problem.  Coach will have them take their shoes and play barefoot and the Hawks will win by 17 points.  They have a good rusher, but UND gives up less than 90 yards a gene.  basically, tied with NDSU and about 6th place in the country.  I think 35-17 is about right.  UND is a handful of plays from being undefeated.  UND may lose one more game, but I doubt it.

S Dak has an inconsistent passing game and UND has a stout run defense.  That bodes well for UND.  34-24 UND.

[siouxfan512]

7 minutes ago, GDPritch said:

S Dak has an inconsistent passing game and UND has a stout run defense.  That bodes well for UND.  34-24 UND.

You do have to wonder if UND will give up some more points in one of these games. We have only given up 24 points twice this season. K State and Montana. South Dakota isn't in the neighborhood of either. Doesn't mean they couldn't click on a few big plays though. 

[Und Princess]

Good Morning and Happy Tuesday prior to the South Dakota game!!! I have new blog up regarding this  week's Football rankings. Check it out!!!

https://ftstspotlight.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-new-football-weekly-poll-results.html?m=1

Have a great day!!!

Und Princess 

[forksandspoons]

Back to the turf.. I would hope at this point they’re bringing many types of shoes for each guy to every road game do they can test things out pregame 

[Siouxperbb32]

Early lines for game

[Dustin]

So, basically UND 31, USD 20.  That sounds about right.

[ND11]

UND 35-17

[Nodak78]

2 hours ago, Siouxperbb32 said:

Early lines for game

hammer it.  UND will pound them.

[siouxfan512]

So, what do you do when you are at work and there is no new reading material leading up to a Saturday game against USD. You sift stats and come up with your own stuff.

I think there is always some apprehension with USD because it is a familiar foe. There is a lot of history between these teams and history states the location and venue will play a factor in this matchup. Though the same could have been said last year and the bottom line is that UND was not a good enough football team last year. I think that will be the same case for USD this year.

The biggest offensive factors to look at are RB and QB.

QB - Aidan Bouman has shown what he is capable of in the past but has not played up to that level this season. He gets it done, but we have the far greater QB based on play this season. Defense needs to limit big passing plays, avoid PI penalties and create some turnovers. QB threw several interceptions to start the season but has not thrown one in a few weeks.

RB - LJ Phillips has stepped in to the starting role and played at a very high level; currently #2 in the FCS for rushing yards (2 spots ahead of Beau Brungard). That being said, lets add some context to the numbers. In 9 games, Phillips has gone over 100 yards 5 times (with some real monster games). Of those 5 opponents 3 rank at the very bottom of the FCS in rushing D (#116 UNC, #123 Indiana St, #126 Murray St), Illinois St. is at #59 in rushing D and gave up 123 yards to Phillips but no TDs, while Drake comes in at a respectable #18 but has only played 7 games and plays in the Pioneer League which must be considered. 

Other notable stats:

Scoring Offense: #9 UND (40 PPG) / #81 USD (21.9 PPG)

Scoring Defense: #17 UND (18.62 PPG) / #53 USD (26.33 PPG)

3rd Down Conversion %: Slight edge to USD, but both teams about 40-41%

4th Down Conversion %: UND at 67% on 12 attempts / USD at 33% on 9 attempts

Fewest Penalties: #7 UND (32 for 296 yds) / #75 USD (51 for 477 yds) *USD has played 1 extra game

Turnover Margin: UND is +7 / USD is -2 (UND has more interceptions, but USD has fewer fumbles lost)

Redzone efficiency: UND is #78 with .795 (44 Att; 35 Scores; 14 Rush TD; 17 Pass TD; 4 FGM) / USD is #11 with .926 (27 Att; 25 Scores; 10 Rush TD; 6 Pass TD; 9 FGM)

Redzone Defense: #58 UND / #91 USD

KO Returns: #4 UND (13 for 367 yds and 1 TD) / #67 USD (17 for 333 and 0 TD)

 

To win the game you follow a similar formula to what we have already seen. Shut down their key playmaker in Phillips. Get an early lead and force them to throw the ball. I don't trust that Bouman is going to win this game for them with his arm. Philips has been dominant, but more so against terrible run D teams. We know NDSU is elite, but they held him to 38 yards and 0 TDs. Continue to spread the ball around ... they cannot cover everyone. Get SS going early, use X on passing plays but limit touches ... I'd rather see Langama get the ball and a healthy dose of Brunell in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Let Jerry do his thing ... take your shots on short yardage situations. Can we put together 4 full quarters? Can we capitalize in the red zone?  Can we limit big plays?

If you showed me stats, rankings, scores, opponents, etc. (without telling me the team) I would say that this should be a dominant win by the boys in green, comparable to UNI, but certainly not as difficult as Southern Illinois. That being said, it is USD on the road and we can all attest that there have been some strange matchups in the past. Even so, this is a new team under new leadership. They have shown they can compete consistently on the road and have bucked the road loss issue; so why not roll into Vermillion and dominate? I really do expect to see backups playing back the 4th quarter, but hopefully we see them in the mid to late 3rd. Should be a fun game to watch ... WIN BIG and STAY HEALTHY!!! JYD!!!

[Dustin]

Glad someone put together a worthwhile read of new material.  Thanks @siouxfan512

[siouxfan512]

11 minutes ago, Dustin said:

Glad someone put together a worthwhile read of new material.  Thanks @siouxfan512

mid-week struggles during a great football season. Fortunately, by tomorrow there will be a new podcast to entertain me. Let's keep it going! haha

[Und Princess]

58 minutes ago, siouxfan512 said:

mid-week struggles during a great football season. Fortunately, by tomorrow there will be a new podcast to entertain me. Let's keep it going! haha

My blog will be updated with  Football content on Saturday on https://ftstspotlight.blogspot.com/?m=1

 

[sioux24/7]

Great work @siouxfan512! I feel like Bouman is a bit overrated. He’s good, don’t get me wrong but I take Jerry over him 10/10 times. I would compare Bouman to Tommy a bit. Maybe a bit more of an arm but their #s are fairly comparable. 

I have very little concerns with their offense. They’re not going to light up the scoreboard on any respectable team and definitely not on us. My concern is with their defense. It’s their strength and was last year as well. But I still go back to having confidence in Jerry and he should be able to guide this offense to outscore them. 

I think you are spot on that if you look at this as a blind resume, this should be a similar result to the UNI game but the DakotaDome is a factor. Not because of their stellar attendance or anything but it’s just a weird place to play I think. I haven’t been to the UNI Dome but probably similar to that so we should be prepared. 

[forksandspoons]

Anyone heading down to Vermillion for this one?

[gfhockey]

Thought about it but have an ole friend coming to town from Duluth 

[GDPritch]

On 10/28/2025 at 9:37 AM, siouxfan512 said:

You do have to wonder if UND will give up some more points in one of these games. We have only given up 24 points twice this season. K State and Montana. South Dakota isn't in the neighborhood of either. Doesn't mean they couldn't click on a few big plays though. 

Make a good point. S Dak not quite S Illinois or Youngstown offensively but giving them an extra 7-10 points as they can be tough in the Dakota Dome.

[Dustin]

13 minutes ago, GDPritch said:

Make a good point. S Dak not quite S Illinois or Youngstown offensively but giving them an extra 7-10 points as they can be tough in the Dakota Dome.

Which games did we give up a late TD due to backups getting reps?  PSU, UNI, SIU, ISU-blue.  Any others?  If our starters stay in against USD, I would be a little surprised if we give up more than 24.  And I think our offense, which may be stunted a little because of USD/DakotaDome, should still be able to score more than 24.

[geaux_sioux]

46 minutes ago, Dustin said:

Which games did we give up a late TD due to backups getting reps?  PSU, UNI, SIU, ISU-blue.  Any others?  If our starters stay in against USD, I would be a little surprised if we give up more than 24.  And I think our offense, which may be stunted a little because of USD/DakotaDome, should still be able to score more than 24.

This has been bothering me every game. Our scoring d average is very misleading. The 2 deep has been great. Big picture, the young guys getting those reps is more valuable than the box score though. I want to see them start to bow up though. Murray St is their next opportunity.

[Dustin]

If you take 28 points away from opponents, UND's starting defense is giving up 15.1 PPG (vs. 18.6 PPG when including all points).

[FSSD]

I will take the roster development every time.  You have to continuously build in the portal era.

[Wilbur]

Yotes sitting at 5-4 means this and every game after is a playoff game for them.  I expect a very hungry home team, and another good road test for our kids to prove that the old road woes are a thing of the past. 

[Dustin]

AI Overview

 

In college football, an elite defense typically has a points allowed per game (PPG) average of under 16 points, and the very best units often allow closer to 12-14 PPG. 

For perspective, here are the PPG numbers for top defenses from recent seasons:

• Top 3 (2024 Season): The top scoring defenses allowed approximately 12.9 to 15.3 PPG (Ohio State: 12.9 PPG, Ole Miss: 14.4 PPG, Texas: 15.3 PPG).
• Top 3 (Current 2025 Season as of late October): The leading defenses are currently allowing around 5.9 to 10.9 PPG, though these numbers may fluctuate as the season progresses.
• Historical Benchmark: A historically strong defense, such as Alabama's 2011 unit, allowed a remarkable 8.2 PPG throughout the entire season. 

Achieving a PPG average below the 16-point mark consistently places a team among the nation's elite defensive units in a given year.