2025-26 University of North Dakota Hockey Season

[Oxbow6]

Someone help me out. What season was it, a few back, where the team was just dreadful offensively but every game Schloss posted out their xG was high. Of course that team missed the NCAAs but in the world of a unicorn riding on a rainbow they were so much better than their record and failed season. Kind off the lipstick on a pig scenario.

[Wilbur]

1 hour ago, Oxbow6 said:

I hit 13 of 14 fairways off the tee yesterday. Analytics would suggest I should have scored way better that I did. A scorecard doesn't have any pictures or a what could have been number. Just one number per hole.

....or in @Wilbur's case sometimes 2 numbers per hole.

At some point I get to move up to the red tees I'm told.  There is hope down the road. 

[hockeytherapy13]

1 hour ago, Oxbow6 said:

Someone help me out. What season was it, a few back, where the team was just dreadful offensively but every game Schloss posted out their xG was high. Of course that team missed the NCAAs but in the world of a unicorn riding on a rainbow they were so much better than their record and failed season. Kind off the lipstick on a pig scenario.

Feels like it's been quite a few but 2018-19 was brutal with how they couldn't finish the job getting the puck in the net. But I think Shloss started bringing up xG  during 2022-2023 season but I can't say for sure; it was within the last few years.

[Walsh Hall]

1 hour ago, Oxbow6 said:

I hit 13 of 14 fairways off the tee yesterday. Analytics would suggest I should have scored way better that I did. A scorecard doesn't have any pictures or a what could have been number. Just one number per hole.

....or in @Wilbur's case sometimes 2 numbers per hole.

Nice job with the driver, but that's not at all how analytics work.  Macro, not micro...  You may be cumulatively losing strokes from 120-129 yards when the pin is tucked relative to similar situated golfers.  You may be statistically inconsistent with your spin rate with your hybrids.  You may be being too aggressive on 25-30 ft putts.  It may be beneficial to speed train to gain some distance off the tee as distance trumps accurately over the long run.  (scoring average is less from 130 in the rough than 150 in the fairway even after being adjusted for the increase in penalty shots...)

I can guarantee you that every D1 golfer uses advanced analytics as do every college and NHL team.    I just checked and NHL teams have between 8-12 staff members dedicated just to analytics.  

Literally no one is saying that the winner of a game should be determined by advanced metrics, but to say they are not useful tools for identifying strengths and weaknesses is rather short-sighted.

[Oxbow6]

If your xG "analytics " tell you you should be winning games and you're not you're still losing those games.

The xG for the ASU game Saturday that UND lost had UND 3.7-1.9.....of course it did.

[mygarske]

https://www.instagram.com/p/DRKimSbETx2/?igsh=MWJkZnpjbW04NzhkdA%3D%3D

Post from a guy who only writes about college hockey. Take it for what it's worth.  

If you look at the other players being compared to #9 and #6 - our guys are ahead of the pack in a lot of categories. Sadly, he doesn't include #7 or #13.

With the exception of Plante & Horcoff, 9 has more goals than the rest. Even ahead of the overhyped Ryker Lee, who has 2 goals on the #1 ranked team in the country??

If you look at the dmen #6 is the only 'offensive' defenseman next to Hutson. Not that he's a scoring juggernaut, But Kleber, Groenwald, & Osborn are not going to light the lamp.

It will be interesting to see how Coach Bob handles this, especially with Gopher Nation not exactly rowing the boat for him lately. 

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

42 minutes ago, Walsh Hall said:

Nice job with the driver, but that's not at all how analytics work.  Macro, not micro...  You may be cumulatively losing strokes from 120-129 yards when the pin is tucked relative to similar situated golfers.  You may be statistically inconsistent with your spin rate with your hybrids.  You may be being too aggressive on 25-30 ft putts.  It may be beneficial to speed train to gain some distance off the tee as distance trumps accurately over the long run.  (scoring average is less from 130 in the rough than 150 in the fairway even after being adjusted for the increase in penalty shots...)

I can guarantee you that every D1 golfer uses advanced analytics as do every college and NHL team.    I just checked and NHL teams have between 8-12 staff members dedicated just to analytics.  

Literally no one is saying that the winner of a game should be determined by advanced metrics, but to say they are not useful tools for identifying strengths and weaknesses is rather short-sighted.

Some guys named like Tiger, Spieth, McIlroy and Dechambeau have used Strokes Gained to inform their training and improve their strategy but I'm sure it's all fluff. 

[Green Banner]

4 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

Someone help me out. What season was it, a few back, where the team was just dreadful offensively but every game Schloss posted out their xG was high. Of course that team missed the NCAAs but in the world of a unicorn riding on a rainbow they were so much better than their record and failed season. Kind off the lipstick on a pig scenario.

Believe it was 18-19. They were dominate on SOG but put everything in the breadbasket 

[cowboys5xsbs]

5 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

Someone help me out. What season was it, a few back, where the team was just dreadful offensively but every game Schloss posted out their xG was high. Of course that team missed the NCAAs but in the world of a unicorn riding on a rainbow they were so much better than their record and failed season. Kind off the lipstick on a pig scenario.

It was the year we lost to saint cloud in the Frozen Four 

 

https://www.grandforksherald.com/sports/und-hockey/what-advanced-analytics-tell-us-about-the-und-hockey-team

[AlphaMikeFoxtrot]

49 minutes ago, cowboys5xsbs said:

It was the year we lost to saint cloud in the Frozen Four 

 

https://www.grandforksherald.com/sports/und-hockey/what-advanced-analytics-tell-us-about-the-und-hockey-team

Frozen Faceoff*

[brucespook]

Who determines expected goals? 
 

 

[dustnyou]

Of course analytics are valuable. I was referring to xG specifically. It has too many holes for me. Or uncharted variables imo. 

[brianvf]

https://thehockeynews.com/ncaa/latest-news/five-top-underrated-players-in-college-hockey

Both Mac and Spoons listed on their top 5 underrated players in college.

[sioux rube]

2. Keaton Verhoeff, RHD (University of North Dakota, NCAA)

Many scouts are starting to give Ivar Stenberg the No. 2 spot, but I’m sticking with Verhoeff – for now. I still think his unique blend of size, mobility and offensive awareness will take him far in the NHL. His ice time has fluctuated a bit and his offense has quieted down, but he’s still playing a ton of quality hockey against much older competition. I appreciate that he jumped to the NCAA to push himself, and I think it’ll have positive long-term effects. I’m not sure he’ll be able to exploit opponents with the puck in the NHL like he did in the WHL, but I have full confidence he’ll find multiple ways to be extremely impactful.

 

 

[Fratt Mattin]

15 minutes ago, sioux rube said:

 

2. Keaton Verhoeff, RHD (University of North Dakota, NCAA)

Many scouts are starting to give Ivar Stenberg the No. 2 spot, but I’m sticking with Verhoeff – for now. I still think his unique blend of size, mobility and offensive awareness will take him far in the NHL. His ice time has fluctuated a bit and his offense has quieted down, but he’s still playing a ton of quality hockey against much older competition. I appreciate that he jumped to the NCAA to push himself, and I think it’ll have positive long-term effects. I’m not sure he’ll be able to exploit opponents with the puck in the NHL like he did in the WHL, but I have full confidence he’ll find multiple ways to be extremely impactful.

 

 

One thing that I think a lot of evaluators are underrating with Verhoeff is his age. He's not just a 17 year old freshman, but an extremely young one at that. I know he hasn't made a ton of eye popping plays, but he also has made very few errors in my opinion. I think the fact that he has been able to play well in top 4 minutes, in college hockey's toughest conference, against guys who are up to 7 years older than him, says a lot. Playing defense is about a lot more than racking up points and I've been impressed by his body of work so far

[nascar99]

2 minutes ago, Fratt Mattin said:

One thing that I think a lot of evaluators are underrating with Verhoeff is his age. He's not just a 17 year old freshman, but an extremely young one at that. I know he hasn't made a ton of eye popping plays, but he also has made very few errors in my opinion. I think the fact that he has been able to play well in top 4 minutes, in college hockey's toughest conference, against guys who are up to 7 years older than him, says a lot. Playing defense is about a lot more than racking up points and I've been impressed by his body of work so far

He's also gotten better week to week, which is super impressive as a 17 year old in the NCAA

[brianvf]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/scouts-analysis-why-keaton-verhoeff-is-the-no-1-nhl-draft-prospect/

[Fratt Mattin]

31 minutes ago, nascar99 said:

He's also gotten better week to week, which is super impressive as a 17 year old in the NCAA

I think back to Sanderson and how he looked good, but not great until the last few months of his freshman year. When you remember that Verhoeff is a full year younger than Sanderson was, I think it really puts into perspective how well he is doing with the adjustment to college

[AlphaMikeFoxtrot]

2 hours ago, Fratt Mattin said:

I think back to Sanderson and how he looked good, but not great until the last few months of his freshman year. When you remember that Verhoeff is a full year younger than Sanderson was, I think it really puts into perspective how well he is doing with the adjustment to college

90% of opponents are in awe of him but also thinking how playing against him will be an anecdote for the rest of their lives just like Eichel, Celebrini, etc.

What is really impressive is when he makes a mistake he is always poised and calm, usually recovering the puck. No panic in his game as a 17 year old.

[Wilbur]

On 11/18/2025 at 8:12 PM, brucespook said:

Who determines expected goals? 
 

 

This is what I want to know.  In the world of analytics there is definitely some grey area there.  

[Walsh Hall]

9 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

This is what I want to know.  In the world of analytics there is definitely some grey area there.  

For the better models there is not much grey area.  That's kinda the whole point, to just use objection measurements instead of the fallible subjective.

Factors considered include:

Shot location, distance from net, angle to net, shot type (Wrist shot, slap shot, snap shot, backhand, tip-in, wrap-around)., shot trajectory,  even strength (5v5), power play, penalty kill, empty net, rush shot, rebound, preceding events, rebound (yes/no), rush (speed of entry), zone entry type, pass type (e.g., cross-slot), scoring chance including screen in front, defensive pressure, net-front presence, one-timer, Goaltender factors including positioning, historical save % from similar locations, etc.

From an online site - "Doorstep one-timer on the power play might be 0.35 xG, while a blue-line slap shot through traffic is often just 0.02–0.03.

[cberkas]

 

[Fratt Mattin]

35 minutes ago, cberkas said:

 

Looks about right

[brianvf]

https://www.grandforksherald.com/sports/und-hockey/new-mock-drafts-show-unds-keaton-verhoeff-as-no-1-overall-pick

Quote

Has UND freshman Keaton Verhoeff overtaken Penn State's Gavin McKenna has the top prospect for the 2026 NHL Draft?

A couple of Canadian prospect analysts think so.

Quote

"Verhoeff has the potential to become a cornerstone piece for whichever team is lucky enough to draft him next June," Bukala wrote. "In time he will kill penalties at North Dakota, and when he does it will round out his game even more. He projects to be a complete player in time. Verhoeff’s journey towards next June’s NHL Draft will no doubt include some twists and turns as he continues to evolve at North Dakota. But as of today, he is my top-rated prospect."