2014 Pairwise rankings

[siouxweet]

I guess with where things sit this season it will be a little different going into this weekend as we won't be complaining about where we might ot might not be sent or anyone else for that matter as we just hope to make thing.

[Oxbow6]

So if I read things correctly a sweep of CC would have had UND at 9 or 10 vs. 13 as of now?

[siouxweet]

So if I read things correctly a sweep of CC would have had UND at 9 or 10 vs. 13 as of now?

probably 11th but in a much safer positon entering this weekend.

[yelo09]

Assuming UND gets in to the tournament, what are the odds of a first round match up against the Gophers in St Paul ?

[siouxweet]

Assuming UND gets in to the tournament, what are the odds of a first round match up against the Gophers in St Paul ?

I will say zero as minny will be the number one overall seed and will play the atlantic hockey champion whoever that is in the first round. there would be a better chance of UND playing BC in the first round.

[yelo09]

I will say zero as minny will be the number one overall seed and will play the atlantic hockey champion whoever that is in the first round. there would be a better chance of UND playing BC in the first round.

I forgot about the AHA, I believe your scenario is more correct

[SJHovey]

Assuming UND gets in to the tournament, what are the odds of a first round match up against the Gophers in St Paul ?

I would think it's unlikely, notwithstanding the conspiracy theorists.

If UND sneaks in as an at-large bid (wins one of two games and has the other games break right) we'll likely be the #14 team. I don't think they'll do that to MN. They'll give MN the AHA team, or possibly even the NCHC champion.

If we get in as the NCHC champ, we'll probably be somewhere between the #10 and #13 team, so again, a first round matchup with the number one seeded MN won't occur.

Might find ourselves playing someone like Wisconsin though, with a MN matchup looming in the second round.

[siouxweet]

I would think it's unlikely, notwithstanding the conspiracy theorists.

If UND sneaks in as an at-large bid (wins one of two games and has the other games break right) we'll likely be the #14 team. I don't think they'll do that to MN. They'll give MN the AHA team, or possibly even the NCHC champion.

If we get in as the NCHC champ, we'll probably be somewhere between the #10 and #13 team, so again, a first round matchup with the number one seeded MN won't occur.

Might find ourselves playing someone like Wisconsin though, with a MN matchup looming in the second round.

with wisconsin and scsu lokking to be 2 and 3 seeds(most likely) I don't hink they put extra effort into getting UND there. IF UND makes the tourney look fo them to travel east somewhere.

[GFG]

Agreed. I'm pretty sure if UND gets in it's almost 0% that they end up in St. Paul now.

I say almost because:

1. It's a new PWR formula and nobody is 100% sure if they have it correct yet.

2. You never know if the committee will put UND in St. Paul if they end up as the #15 seed.

This is from Nate Wells on Twitter earlier:

@gopherstate 4h

@ChrisDilks The only time I can think recently where 1 didn't play 16 is MN getting 15 Air Force in Denver while 2 ND got 16 Huntsville.

But he also pointed out that since the CHA dissolved it's been 1v16 every year

[GFG]

I saw this post on GPL that was taken from USCHO (and now being passed on to SS ). Extremely unlikely that it happens.

St Cloud is out in the following scenario:

Mercyhurst defeats Robert Morris

Ohio State defeats Michigan

Cornell defeats Quinnipiac

New Hampshire defeats Notre Dame

Denver defeats North Dakota (3rd place game)

Western Michigan defeats Miami

Minnesota State defeats Alaska-Anchorage

[Dave Berger]

I saw this post on GPL that was taken from USCHO (and now being passed on to SS ). Extremely unlikely that it happens.

St Cloud is out in the following scenario:

Mercyhurst defeats Robert Morris

Ohio State defeats Michigan

Cornell defeats Quinnipiac

New Hampshire defeats Notre Dame

Denver defeats North Dakota (3rd place game)

Western Michigan defeats Miami

Minnesota State defeats Alaska-Anchorage

Crazy to think that in this (very unlikely) scenario, Western Michigan would be the only team from the NCHC to make the NCAA tournament.

Dave

[jimdahl]

1. It's a new PWR formula and nobody is 100% sure if they have it correct yet.

There are people who are sure, but as you might imagine there are just reasons they can't say so too loudly.

In terms of possibilities....

A (somewhat) plain English explanation

and

Raw data on PWR/tournament possibilities

[Frozen4sioux]

The games that defined the season( so far) are the games one is "supposed" to win:

The Vermont tie

The BU tie

The BU loss

The St. Lawrence loss

The Bermidgchee tie

And the CC first round loss

Those games, the ones that had to be won and should have been won.

The difference between a 1 seed lock (3 or 4 overall) and this very precarious situation.

Its all subjective but those games in particular really made impact.

But who knows 2 games left for sure and maybe 6....their fate is in their own hands and there are many many many teams who wish they had that luxury.

[siouxweet]

The games that defined the season( so far) are the games one is "supposed" to win:

The Vermont tie

The BU tie

The BU loss

The St. Lawrence loss

The Bermidgchee tie

And the CC first round loss

Those games, the ones that had to be won and should have been won.

The difference between a 1 seed lock (3 or 4 overall) and this very precarious situation.

Its all subjective but those games in particular really made impact.

But who knows 2 games left for sure and maybe 6....their fate is in their own hands and there are many many many teams who wish they had that luxury.

I'd even add the sat night debacle against omaha at the ralph.

[scpa0305]

The games that defined the season( so far) are the games one is "supposed" to win:

The Vermont tie

The BU tie

The BU loss

The St. Lawrence loss

The Bermidgchee tie

And the CC first round loss

Those games, the ones that had to be won and should have been won.

The difference between a 1 seed lock (3 or 4 overall) and this very precarious situation.

Its all subjective but those games in particular really made impact.

But who knows 2 games left for sure and maybe 6....their fate is in their own hands and there are many many many teams who wish they had that luxury.

The SLU, CC and BU losses killed us. Forget the rest, if we win those three games we're top 7 in the PW.

[siouxweet]

The SLU, CC and BU losses killed us. Forget the rest, if we win those three games we're top 7 in the PW.

if we even win just one of those games we are in a much different position than we are right now.

[I Ranger]

The games that defined the season( so far) are the games one is "supposed" to win:

The Vermont tie

The BU tie

The BU loss

The St. Lawrence loss

The Bermidgchee tie

And the CC first round loss

Those games, the ones that had to be won and should have been won.

The difference between a 1 seed lock (3 or 4 overall) and this very precarious situation.

Its all subjective but those games in particular really made impact.

But who knows 2 games left for sure and maybe 6....their fate is in their own hands and there are many many many teams who wish they had that luxury.

The Bemidji tie is the one I'm most curious about. Would anyone have an idea of what a win instead of a tie would have done for our pairwise currently?

[siouxweet]

The Bemidji tie is the one I'm most curious about. Would anyone have an idea of what a win instead of a tie would have done for our pairwise currently?

probably sitting in 11th and having only to win one game this weekend instead of maybe having to win two.

[SJHovey]

There are people who are sure, but as you might imagine there are just reasons they can't say so too loudly.

In terms of possibilities....

A (somewhat) plain English explanation

and

Raw data on PWR/tournament possibilities

Jim, does the possibility of a tie by UND in the third place game change any of these possibilities? When playing around with USCHO's pwr predictor there were some instances where a UND-DU tie in the third place game still got us in.

[jimdahl]

Jim, does the possibility of a tie by UND in the third place game change any of these possibilities? When playing around with USCHO's pwr predictor there were some instances where a UND-DU tie in the third place game still got us in.

Yeah, UND advances in about 1% of the scenarios in which they lose then tie.

You'd think I'd have learned to be more careful with my language. While my notes actually say "UND can't advance with two losses" I have occasionally misspoken and said that UND needs a win.

To derive the 1%, as you can see from the table here, UND advances about .5% of the time they get 0 wins. Since there are only two zero win scenarios (lose then lose, or lose then tie), we can deduce that UND makes it about 1% of the time that they lose then tie.

[scpa0305]

if we even win just one of those games we are in a much different position than we are right now.

Very true.

[Siouxperfan7]

Just win baby!!

[SJHovey]

Yeah, UND advances in about 1% of the scenarios in which they lose then tie.

You'd think I'd have learned to be more careful with my language. While my notes actually say "UND can't advance with two losses" I have occasionally misspoken and said that UND needs a win.

To derive the 1%, as you can see from the table here, UND advances about .5% of the time they get 0 wins. Since there are only two zero win scenarios (lose then lose, or lose then tie), we can deduce that UND makes it about 1% of the time that they lose then tie.

Thanks Jim. I should have been able to figure that out.

[UNDBIZ]

That Boston trip was a nightmare.

[Frozen4sioux]

The Bemidji tie is the one I'm most curious about. Would anyone have an idea of what a win instead of a tie would have done for our pairwise currently?

the win instead of tie vs Bermidgchee would have moved UND to 11 still not a lock.

Same result as if only the SLU loss where flipped

and as if the BU tie was flipped

its the combination of those three games flipping would land UND 7th and a lock.

Combining those three with beating CC in the playoffs on Saturday puts UND 4th overall tied for 3rd

the ability to CLOSE THE DEAL make all the difference

of note UNOs loss to Bently also cost UND a comparison