Projected Tourny Bid

[brianvf]

SIOUX are a 4th seed and play at the Ralph while Minnesota goes to Green Bay as a # 1 seed and WISCONSIN gets placed in the Ralph because of the seeding a 1 seed can't play a 4 seed in the first round when they are both from the same confrence and the home school is MICH TECH and not WISCONSIN also Green Bay is closer then the Ralph for MINNEOTA.... now hows that for some sound perdictions.... hahahaha

So if a #1 seed can't play a #4 in the first round if they are from the same conference, then how could UW get placed at REA if the Sioux are a #4 and UW is a #1?

If things work out how you predict (with both UMN and UW getting #1 seeds and UND getting a #4 seed), then a different #1 seed would get sent to REA.

[Stack]

March 3-4

Minnesota and Duluth split

Denver and CC split

Wisconsin and StCloud split

North Dakota and Tech split

final standings

MINNESOTA

DENVER

WISCONSIN

CC

ST CLOUD

SIOUX

MANKATO

MICH TECH

UMD

ALASKA

first round of playoffs

MINNESOTA wins over ALASKA by a sweep

DENVER wins over UMD by a sweep

WISCONSIN wins over MICH TECH by a sweep

CC wins over MANKATO in 3 games

NORTH DAKOTA wins in 3 games over ST CLOUD

Final 5

play in game CC beats the SIOUX

Friday afternoon game WISCONSIN beats DENVER

Friday evening game MINNESOTA beats CC

3rd place game CC beats DENVER

Championship game WISCONSIN beats MINNESOTA

NCAAs selections WCHA gets 5 teams in the MINNESOTA,1 WISCONSIN,1 CC,2 SIOUX,4 DENVER,4

SIOUX are a 4th seed and play at the Ralph while Minnesota goes to Green Bay as a # 1 seed and WISCONSIN gets placed in the Ralph because of the seeding a 1 seed can't play a 4 seed in the first round when they are both from the same confrence and the home school is MICH TECH and not WISCONSIN also Green Bay is closer then the Ralph for MINNEOTA.... now hows that for some sound perdictions.... hahahaha

Wisconsin as a number 1 seed being placed at REA if UND is a Number 4 seed cannot happen. If UND is a Number 4 seed we would get either Miami or BU as the PWR currently stands. you can't play a team from your conference in the first round of the NCAAs if the NCAA can move another team to that region, thus we can't play Wisconsin.

Your predictions are actually pretty "predictable". You just pciked all of the top teams to win and the favored team wins every game in your scenario except when CC beats Denver for third and Wisconsin beats Minnestoa. I realize that it is more likely that the favored team wins but it's too boring to pick that.

if you went with the odds you'd have all of the home teams wining. Then a veteran CC beating us and Minnesota winning the Final five. It's probably more likely to happen than my scenario but...

Right now the teams that are playing the best are Mankato and Minnesota. Denver has defense problems and CC is up and down just like we are. Wisconsin has not played well in 4-6 weeks. So who knows what will happen.

[siouxnami]

This is not going to happen, but would be really cool.

If NE wins the HE Tournament, the would be a TUC and UND could possibly pass some teams that were unlikely before.

[siouxnami]

1. Minnesota 207.0020 23-6-5 69.0005

2. Miami 161.9020 23-7-4 58.2848

3. Wisconsin 153.7400 21-9-3 71.7454

4. Michigan State 115.3620 20-10-8 67.2944

5. Colorado College 111.6020 23-13-1 64.1119

6. Denver 100.6630 20-13-2 67.1086

7. North Dakota 100.0000 21-14-1 67.4419

8. Boston University 96.6997 19-9-4 50.6522

9. Maine 95.6115 23-10-1 42.7200

10. Michigan 90.8622 18-13-5 68.700

Wow, the cream rises to the top. Right now 5 of the top 7 according to KRACH (the fair method) are in the WCHA... PWR is crap. The Sioux would be a solid #2 seed if 4 of our best players didn't miss a 1-0 loss to Harvard.

[DLW4GOPHERS]

To STACK:

What kind of as*ho*e are you. I don't care if it would be a clean hit, anyone that wish's another teams player to get hurt has some serious mental problems. Have a nice life. Oh, you right I don't mean that. I hope your life sucks.

[Goon]

Right now Ohio State is getting beat by Ferris State 2-0. Hum, how the mighty Buckeyes have fallen.

[nodakvindy]

Alaska Fairbanks defeated Notre Dame, knocking them out from being a TUC. This hurts many of the CCHA teams who had picked up some cheap TUC wins. The updated Pair Wise with bonus now has UND at #8, the final 2 seed. A win tomorrow night and a sweep of St. Cloud would almost certainly lock up a tourney bid. Now it's just up to the team to go out and do it.

[farce poobah]

This was pretty much a perfect night - Sioux win, St Cloud loses, Bemidji winning, Notre Dame drops out of TUC land ...

Seems that IF UND can win Saturday and win the 1st round WCHA series, that we're into the NCAA. Lose tomorrow and all bets are off - we could fall out of the top 16 entirely. Very very tight.

Other things that can help UND:

New Hampshire is now #16 in the RPI. If they win a couple more, and if they move into #15 or better, UND gets a quality road win bonus (.003 or maybe a bit more), which would be huge.

If Bemidji wins the CHA autobid, they become a TUC, and UND picks up 2 wins vs TUC and wins a couple more comparisons.

====================

Weird that we could still get a high #2 seed OR miss the NCAA entirely, this late in the season.

[Slap Shot]

PWR is crap. The Sioux would be a solid #2 seed if 4 of our best players didn't miss a 1-0 loss to Harvard.

In the latest Bracketology from USCHO (with bonuses), the Sioux sit at #7, so if the season ended today, they would be a #2 seed.

http://www.uscho.com/pdf/general/2006bracket.pdf

[Goon]

I am going to love watching UND knock the snot out of Cornell.

[Smoggy]

It's starting to play out a bit in the PWR, but I think the CCHA is overrated and the WCHA is being underrated nationally.

I feel the MN is the only true #1 seed with possibly Miami. BU and Mich. St. have come on strong, but can they keep it up?

I think the WCHA gets 5 in and if the NCAA spaces us between all 4 regions we'll see a WCHA Frozen Four again.

[siouxnami]

I think the WCHA gets 5 in and if the NCAA spaces us between all 4 regions we'll see a WCHA Frozen Four again.

Oh, they won't make that mistake again.

[siouxnami]

Looks like the Sioux would be a #2 seed right now:

1 Minnesota 30 1 25-6-5 .7639 1 .5861

2 Wisconsin 29 4 23-9-3 .7000 2 .5780

3 Miami 28 2 23-7-4 .7353 3 .5641

4t Boston University 26 7 21-9-4 .6765 4 .5626

4t Michigan State 26 10t 20-10-8 .6316 5 .5603

6 Colorado College 25 10t 23-13-2 .6316 7 .5489

7 Nebraska-Omaha 23 16 20-12-6 .6053 11 .5441

8t Harvard 22 13 17-10-2 .6207 9 .5454

8t North Dakota 22 14 23-14-1 .6184 6 .5514

10t Denver 21 17t 20-13-3 .5972 10 .5443

10t Cornell 21 6 17-7-4 .6786 12 .5436

Tie breaker is RPI and the Sioux beat Harvard.

[redwing77]

Looks like the Sioux would be a #2 seed right now:

1 Minnesota 30 1 25-6-5 .7639 1 .5861

2 Wisconsin 29 4 23-9-3 .7000 2 .5780

3 Miami 28 2 23-7-4 .7353 3 .5641

4t Boston University 26 7 21-9-4 .6765 4 .5626

4t Michigan State 26 10t 20-10-8 .6316 5 .5603

6 Colorado College 25 10t 23-13-2 .6316 7 .5489

7 Nebraska-Omaha 23 16 20-12-6 .6053 11 .5441

8t Harvard 22 13 17-10-2 .6207 9 .5454

8t North Dakota 22 14 23-14-1 .6184 6 .5514

10t Denver 21 17t 20-13-3 .5972 10 .5443

10t Cornell 21 6 17-7-4 .6786 12 .5436

Tie breaker is RPI and the Sioux beat Harvard.

I thought we split vs. Harvard?

To prevent a double post:

Just to get my facts straight, we MUST sweep MSUM to get into the tourney right? Or maybe we just need to get to the Final 5 swweep or not?

[brianvf]

I thought we split vs. Harvard?

To prevent a double post:

Just to get my facts straight, we MUST sweep MSUM to get into the tourney right? Or maybe we just need to get to the Final 5 swweep or not?

We split with Harvard, but the tiebreaker for PWR is RPI, and the Sioux have a better RPI, so they win the tiebreaker.

I don't necessarily think that we need to sweep Mankato to get into the tourney. I think just winning the series would be enough to get in...but I could be wrong.

[siouxnami]

We split with Harvard, but the tiebreaker for PWR is RPI, and the Sioux have a better RPI, so they win the tiebreaker.

I don't necessarily think that we need to sweep Mankato to get into the tourney. I think just winning the series would be enough to get in...but I could be wrong.

Yup, RPI

[Siouxhockey78]

What if the Sioux loss to the Mavericks? Are the chances of making slim to none or what..

[siouxguyinstpaul]

What if the Sioux loss to the Mavericks? Are the chances of making slim to none or what..

Don't say that.

[sagard]

What if the Sioux loss to the Mavericks? Are the chances of making slim to none or what..

I think if they lost in three they'd squeak in, but I'm going to take a much closer look later this evening after the SLU/Brown game.

[yzerman19]

I believe that the pressure will be on the NCAA to not want 5 WCHA teams to get in, no matter what the PWR says. With that in mind, we will need to make a strong case by winning the Mankato series and by winning at least 1 game in the Final Five. Right now, IMO, the WCHA has to look like this for favorites to win the Final 5:

1. MN

2. UND

3. Denver

4. Wisconsin

5. CC

The emergence of the Toews, Stafford, Duncan line as our top line is great, I expect the Oshie, Zajac, Sparky line to give a lot of teams nightmares. I put our third line up against anyone, that Porter, Watkins, Kozek line is a very formidable third line talent and hitting wise. Defense is our achilles heal, the D corps has to keep up the way they've been playing. I like Parise getting 2 shutouts to end the season (that is great for his confidence). The 1-2 PK punch of Stafford and Zajac is as good as we've had since Hrkac and Joyce on the PK.

I have little doubt that we will play MN to go to the Frozen Four. I think it is exactly what the NCAA wants for attendence too. I don't look forward to playing the Gophers, but I like the fact that the road to another title goes through GF. MN is the best team right now, and I believe that we are one of only a couple of teams (Denver, BU and Michigan State)that can handle them, and any advantage we can get (home ice) is huge. I don't like how Irmen and Potulny always play big in GF. I also don't like how our D men stack up against that line physically. Both Irmen and Potlny are strong kids who've succeeded at every level of hockey they've been at. They were a force in the USHL. I predict a close game with the first goal being huge.

[southpaw]

what happens if UND beats the gophers in the final five? does that then become another "pointless game" that the gophers weren't trying in?

[Smoggy]

Right now, IMO, the WCHA has to look like this for favorites to win the Final 5:

1. MN

2. UND

3. Denver

4. Wisconsin

5. CC

I would have to put DU ahead of us. They seem to have a switch they turn on when they want to play well. If we were to meet them it would be for the title (barring upsets) and that would be our third game in three days.

[yzerman19]

You make a valid point on Denver, however, I think that when we faced them in Denver a week ago we took the play to them. We had a legitimate shot at sweeping the series, but you play shorthanded in the 6th period of a series at that elevation on their home rink in what has become a true rivalry series you are going to lose. Denver desrved to win that second game, but the officiating certainly didn't hurt their cause in the third period last Saturday. I like our chances with Denver in a one game series on neutral ice. I don't like our chances against the Gophs at the X, but I would prefer the scenario of us losing to them in the Final 5 title game to really want some payback in Grand Forks the following weekend.

[sagard]

I would have to put DU ahead of us. They seem to have a switch they turn on when they want to play well. If we were to meet them it would be for the title (barring upsets) and that would be our third game in three days.

I like this list if it's NCAA title chances, but as far as the WCHA title goes UM/DU/UW have to be considered far more likely than UND. It's simply a numbers game. By being stuck in the playin game a teams chances are theoretically cut in half. Realistically I think it's probably far worse.

[I Ranger]

I like this list if it's NCAA title chances, but as far as the WCHA title goes UM/DU/UW have to be considered far more likely than UND. It's simply a numbers game. By being stuck in the playin game a teams chances are theoretically cut in half. Realistically I think it's probably far worse.

I totally agree with this statement. UND's odds of winning the Final Five have to be much worse than that of Denver's or Wisconsin's simply because of the fact that some are predicting UND not getting by MSU and if they do and barring upsets they would have to play in the play-in game and then Minny on Friday night.