2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

[Nodak78]

2 minutes ago, wasmania said:

ok lets just put you in the bucket of people not looking for the truth, only a win for your 'team'.

When this is done we can check the model and get the truth.  You refuse to look objectively just like the people putting the model.  One size doesn't fit all the states.  The variables do not correctly measure differences between the states.

[dynato]

47 minutes ago, Nodak78 said:

ND 2 of 6. Social distance Total of 9 deaths.  Total cases. 439

MN 4 of 6.  Social distance total deaths 111. Total cases. 2,071

The model is $%#!(&*#. Like I said before.

34 minutes ago, Cratter said:

Up down up down up down.

25 minutes ago, Nodak78 said:

More data.   they need to keep twisting variable until it fits the model.  Or the person doing model must be on a 3 day drunk.  

ND has a positive testing increase of 46 people in a single day, that is a 12% increase.
MN has a positive testing increase of 159 people in a single day, that is an 8% increase.

ND is trending uppies and MN is trending downies. Models are adjusted similarly.

 Find a model that fits your assumptions about the future impact of the coronavirus and share it with us. Calling a model crap with no justifications other than you not fully understanding it is just silly. Most of the US government chose the IHME model for a reason, it obviously has some merit to it and is useful for them to make decisions.

For me, the IHME is not a good model for total deaths because it forecasts zero deaths in July and August and assumes that appropriate measures are put in place to guard against the reintroduction of COVID-19 from another state or country. I see this as being irrational and completely unrealistic in the long term.

[dynato]

11 minutes ago, Nodak78 said:

When this is done we can check the model and get the truth.  You refuse to look objectively just like the people putting the model.  One size doesn't fit all the states.  The variables do not correctly measure differences between the states.

You are right, one size likely does not fit all in comparing one state to another.
Tell me, why would a pandemic not wreak havoc on ND?
Do you think ND is special, and that the virus will magically avoid impacting our major cities because the population is less than 110k people? 
What reasonable evidence do you have to suggest otherwise, when majority of our citizens are condensed to basically 5 cities?

[Nodak78]

12 minutes ago, dynato said:

You are right, one size likely does not fit all in comparing one state to another.
Tell me, why would a pandemic not wreak havoc on ND?
Do you think ND is special, and that the virus will magically avoid impacting our major cities because the population is less than 110k people? 
What reasonable evidence do you have to suggest otherwise, when majority of our citizens are condensed to basically 5 cities?

Damn right where special we don't pack into a subway like sardines.  ND doesn't have a gazillion apartments right on top another.  ND is natural for social distancing.  NY not so much.  Twin cities not so much.

[wasmania]

23 minutes ago, Nodak78 said:

When this is done we can check the model and get the truth.  You refuse to look objectively just like the people putting the model.  One size doesn't fit all the states.  The variables do not correctly measure differences between the states.

 I have been trying to explain to you and others that models vary widely as data changes rapidly, which it has been doing.  models can be  both objective (built using statistical theory and proper data management) and wrong (missing key data points or dimensions that have not been capture or are unavailable at the time the model was developed).  It is only way after the fact in a post mortem of the pandemic and full examination of the data over the entire time period can you fully understand what drove the pandemic and why.   you want to kill these messengers who are trying to model chaos for reasons I still don't grasp.  

[wasmania]

1 minute ago, Nodak78 said:

Damn right where special we don't pack into a subway like sardines.  ND doesn't have a gazillion apartments right on top another.  ND is natural for social distancing.  NY not so much.  Twin cities not so much.

Pretty sure those pork plant workers were pretty tightly situated so there is something of an apples to apples comparison.  And yes, I know the Smithfield plant is in South Dakota not North Dakota, because that makes a big difference...

[UND1983]

10 minutes ago, wasmania said:

Pretty sure those pork plant workers were pretty tightly situated so there is something of an apples to apples comparison.  And yes, I know the Smithfield plant is in South Dakota not North Dakota, because that makes a big difference...

It all happened at work?

[dynato]

11 minutes ago, Nodak78 said:

Damn right where special we don't pack into a subway like sardines.  ND doesn't have a gazillion apartments right on top another.  ND is natural for social distancing.  NY not so much.  Twin cities not so much.

Funny you mention the Twin Cities in your counter argument.

Minnesota has a lower ratio of cases/1M population than ND, despite MN having the 16th largest metropolitan population in the USA. ND has the 194th largest metropolitan population. 

 

[tnt]

Altru is worried about getting overwhelmed with the LM Windpower outbreak.  What they are seeing behind the scenes must concern them.  

[dynato]

Just now, tnt said:

Altru is worried about getting overwhelmed with the LM Windpower outbreak.  What they are seeing behind the scenes must concern them.  

Their worries are justified, they only have hospitalization rates from other impacted cities to go off of. The good news is if Altru becomes overwhelmed, they should be able to move the sick down to the Fargodome.

[UND1983]

Does everyone who gets it end up in the hospital once diagnosed?  I honestly don't know....

[Oxbow6]

Would be interesting to get a large sample poll of people who are over 75 that have grand/great grandchildren and ask them at this point would you be willing to take the risk of going to see a grand or great grandchild graduate from HS in another 6-7 weeks....basically making it 3+ months you have been locked up?

What percentage do you think would say "yes" I'd personally take that risk?  

 

[Nodak78]

3 minutes ago, UND1983 said:

Does everyone who gets it end up in the hospital once diagnosed?  I honestly don't know....

So far in ND 47 out of 439 hospitalized

[wasmania]

2 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

Would be interesting to get a large sample poll of people who are over 75 that have grand/great grandchildren and ask them at this point would you be willing to take the risk of going to see a grand or great grandchild graduate from HS in another 6-7 weeks....basically making it 3+ months you have been locked up?

What percentage do you think would say "yes" I'd personally take that risk?  

 

If they are anywhere near as smart as the armchair blowhards on this site, I think they would be lined up at the high school auditorium tighter than sardines in a can. 

[Nodak78]

36 minutes ago, wasmania said:

 I have been trying to explain to you and others that models vary widely as data changes rapidly, which it has been doing.  models can be  both objective (built using statistical theory and proper data management) and wrong (missing key data points or dimensions that have not been capture or are unavailable at the time the model was developed).  It is only way after the fact in a post mortem of the pandemic and full examination of the data over the entire time period can you fully understand what drove the pandemic and why.   you want to kill these messengers who are trying to model chaos for reasons I still don't grasp.  

Yes good models and bad models can change rapidly.  This is a bad model that changes rapidly.

[wasmania]

1 minute ago, Nodak78 said:

Yes good models and bad models can change rapidly.  This is a bad model that changes rapidly.

I have basically been agreeing with you on the current model quality.  might you do me the honor of explaining what your motivations are to be such a blowhard against the epidemiology process?

 

[Oxbow6]

7 minutes ago, Nodak78 said:

So far in ND 47 out of 439 hospitalized

With 16 currently hospitalized.

[wasmania]

11 minutes ago, UND1983 said:

Does everyone who gets it end up in the hospital once diagnosed?  I honestly don't know....

I think there might be a future for you in the current administration

[Nodak78]

2 minutes ago, wasmania said:

I have basically been agreeing with you on the current model quality.  might you do me the honor of explaining what your motivations are to be such a blowhard against the epidemiology process?

 

I missed where you agreed that the model was $$##%&!.  

[Nodak78]

3 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

With 16 currently hospitalized.

Correct

[dynato]

6 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

Would be interesting to get a large sample poll of people who are over 75 that have grand/great grandchildren and ask them at this point would you be willing to take the risk of going to see a grand or great grandchild graduate from HS in another 6-7 weeks....basically making it 3+ months you have been locked up?

What percentage do you think would say "yes" I'd personally take that risk?  

 

I'd think low percentages since this virus targets the elderly. My grandparents have told me they have signed a DNR and have already paid for their funerals and plots. I'm on standby as POA. Texting and facetime it is for the indefinite future. They have voted red their entire life for context since I know that matters. 

[wasmania]

2 minutes ago, Nodak78 said:

I missed where you agreed that the model was $$##%&!.  

I used to much science in my explanation - I said the the early models are missing dimensions  and I gave an example of the lack of knowledge in early models about the impact of asymptomatic people spreading the virus that caused the  less dense areas to be over forecast, I said that the modelers are modeling chaos, that they are objective but wrong. that they improve as the data improves but  a true post mortem takes a long time - how many different F$%cking ways do you need it told to you. 

[Cratter]

3 hours ago, UNDlaw80 said:

Any other conspiracy theories you need debunking?  

The first coronavirus case came out of a Wuhan lab.

[Cratter]

1 hour ago, dynato said:

New York lost 1000 people to COVID today.

Well they have came out and admitted they are guessing some of them died from Coronavirus.

[UND1983]

21 minutes ago, wasmania said:

I think there might be a future for you in the current administration

I was honestly asking, I don't know how it works for hospitilization.  Take your TDS.