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2018 Season


Dustin

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Nice job so far in conference play.  I don’t know how the Hawks will finish the season, but I wouldn’t be too concerned that you didn’t dominate NDSU or ORU.  Both of those teams are better than their records would suggest, especially in their home gyms.  I don’t think either of those two will win the conference, but I’ll bet they pull an upset or three, and ruin someone’s season.

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3 hours ago, kiyoat said:

Nice job so far in conference play.  I don’t know how the Hawks will finish the season, but I wouldn’t be too concerned that you didn’t dominate NDSU or ORU.  Both of those teams are better than their records would suggest, especially in their home gyms.  I don’t think either of those two will win the conference, but I’ll bet they pull an upset or three, and ruin someone’s season.

In order to have the least bit of hope in NCAA postseason, need to be absolutely smoking bottom Summit teams, and last year there were many Big Sky teams that were obliterated.  Women’s Volleyball is one of the least upset prone sports there is - things can change over the season as the timing, personnel and strategy gets better, but the ratings generally are very good predictors.  Generally, a team within 50 rankings of you (out of 330 DI schools) should be very competive, but outside that the match should be a pushover unless there is a major change in strategy or personnel.  It’s not like Basketball where in one game a team can shoot very efficiently or football, where in one game the QB throws a ton of INT’s.  To play a poor team close almost always means that your team is also poor.

But of course it probably doesn’t matter as we’d get the gophers in the NCAA first round and USD would get Nebraska.  Those two schools would have to fall from the power teams (top 16) for that to change.

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On 9/29/2018 at 10:38 PM, SiouxVolley said:

In order to have the least bit of hope in NCAA postseason, need to be absolutely smoking bottom Summit teams, and last year there were many Big Sky teams that were obliterated.  Women’s Volleyball is one of the least upset prone sports there is - things can change over the season as the timing, personnel and strategy gets better, but the ratings generally are very good predictors.  Generally, a team within 50 rankings of you (out of 330 DI schools) should be very competive, but outside that the match should be a pushover unless there is a major change in strategy or personnel.  It’s not like Basketball where in one game a team can shoot very efficiently or football, where in one game the QB throws a ton of INT’s.  To play a poor team close almost always means that your team is also poor.

But of course it probably doesn’t matter as we’d get the gophers in the NCAA first round and USD would get Nebraska.  Those two schools would have to fall from the power teams (top 16) for that to change.

I agree with you , but I am saying that both ORU and NDSU have had very challenging non-conference slates, as well as front-loaded league schedules.  As such their overall W/L record will not tell you the whole story.  USD went' 5 sets with NDSU in front of 1,500+ fans.  Statistically NDSU had an atypical block-a-palooza, but in the end the better team did win, which proves your point about the sport.  Although the Yotes won in four sets in Tulsa, ORU scored 20+ points in each set.  Both ORU and NDSU have taken sets from Denver as well, which is impressive.  To me, the only "bottom feeder" teams right now are SDSU and WIU.  The rest have a pulse, and a chance at an upset.

I'll make a bet with you, and say that either ORU or NDSU will at some point in the season win a match against one of the following teams: Denver, USD, PFW, or Omaha.  A win like that should be considered an upset.  No money, just a "bold prediction." with crow-eating potential.  What's your prediction?

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18 hours ago, kiyoat said:

I agree with you , but I am saying that both ORU and NDSU have had very challenging non-conference slates, as well as front-loaded league schedules.  As such their overall W/L record will not tell you the whole story.  USD went' 5 sets with NDSU in front of 1,500+ fans.  Statistically NDSU had an atypical block-a-palooza, but in the end the better team did win, which proves your point about the sport.  Although the Yotes won in four sets in Tulsa, ORU scored 20+ points in each set.  Both ORU and NDSU have taken sets from Denver as well, which is impressive.  To me, the only "bottom feeder" teams right now are SDSU and WIU.  The rest have a pulse, and a chance at an upset.

I'll make a bet with you, and say that either ORU or NDSU will at some point in the season win a match against one of the following teams: Denver, USD, PFW, or Omaha.  A win like that should be considered an upset.  No money, just a "bold prediction." with crow-eating potential.  What's your prediction?

Didn’t explain myself well enough.  The volleyball ranking # is much more precise than the rating #.  Stanford is #1 now, but anyone 0.5 points behind doesn’t have much chance, which takes down to #17.  It’s a bell curve and there not many at the top.  Going down another 0.5 ranking pts takes us to a rating of 84.  Another 0.5 ranking goes down another 140 spots to a ranking of 220.  UND, IPFW, USD and even Omaha are all in that range, but Denver is way ahead at #34.  NDSU, SDSU, and ORU are sub 1.00 teams. WIU is sub 0.500 team. 

 https://masseyratings.com/cvol/ncaa-d1/ratings

Below 1.000 is OK for a DII school.

Denver probably won’t loose to any Summit school as their ranking is higher than any USD or UND has ever seen.  

With the way UND has played, the timing and concentration seems to be off, would expect a loss at ORU or NDSU.

With last year’s team, I would have taken that bet.

 

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5 hours ago, Smoggy said:

Interesting that Chwialkowski played because I was told she was going to be redshiritng.  Hadn't played yet this year.

I would guess she only played because Williams didn't.  Williams was on the bench and didn't appear hurt but she may have been....

Too bad we had to pull Chwialkowski's shirt!!

 

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12 hours ago, SWSiouxMN said:

I still think they put it together and make a run come tourney time. 

Their defense HAS to improve if that is going to happen.  Our setter is running around all over the place, often making bump sets behind her back.  She was visibly exhausted in the 4th set on Sunday.  It all starts with defense. We are missing a lot of blocks.  That makes the bump more erratic, and the setter has to run to play that, and not get an ideal set.  Without a good set, we cannot attack forcefully and accurately.  That is no formula for a successful offensive attack.  A lot of it comes down to youth and inexperience, which can improve throughout the season, as you allude to.  But, we also talent deficient compared to years past as well.

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On 10/6/2018 at 3:10 PM, UND Fan said:

I would guess she only played because Williams didn't.  Williams was on the bench and didn't appear hurt but she may have been....

Too bad we had to pull Chwialkowski's shirt!!

 

There is no rule for sports other than football where you can play so many games without losing your redshirt status?

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3 hours ago, Dustin said:

Their defense HAS to improve if that is going to happen.  Our setter is running around all over the place, often making bump sets behind her back.  She was visibly exhausted in the 4th set on Sunday.  It all starts with defense. We are missing a lot of blocks.  That makes the bump more erratic, and the setter has to run to play that, and not get an ideal set.  Without a good set, we cannot attack forcefully and accurately.  That is no formula for a successful offensive attack.  A lot of it comes down to youth and inexperience, which can improve throughout the season, as you allude to.  But, we also talent deficient compared to years past as well.

When your setter is the most active player on the floor you're screwed offensively.

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