jimdahl Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 After my first post on PWR predictions this year, in which I predicted doom if UND got swept, UND managed to inch slightly up despite only taking 1 point from the weekend. Look back at the chart, UND did land well within it's "win 1" possibilities curve. It landed near the top thanks to a convincing St. Cloud sweep of Denver, which KRACH gave only about a 12% chance of occurring. That gave North Dakota the comparison with Denver on the basis of RPI. In future weeks I'll again start to include the key games to watch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 UND still with much more downside potential than upside going into this weekend. Weekly rankings analysis Upside potentialCornell and/or Colgate wins over Yale could help UND take the comparison with Yale as TUC comes into play when Yale reaches 10 games vs. TUCs. Downside potential A Bentley win over Holy Cross could knock Holy Cross out of consideration. This would considerably harm UND’s winning percentage vs. TUCs.A Clarkson win over Dartmouth would be enough to give Dartmouth the edge over UND’s current RPI. A St. Lawrence win over Dartmouth would have a slightly smaller effect.A pair of Wisconsin wins over Alaska Anchorage could be enough to take RPI and COP, and thus the comparison with UND.A Mass.-Lowell win over Northeastern would give Mass.-Lowell the edge over UND’s current RPI and the comparison with UND. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 UND settling into a more natural rating for its performance. If they win they climb, if they lose they fall. But, UND is still the single most volatile team in the PWR this weekend. The season outlook continues to track the original prediction from a couple weeks ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagies Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Just win, baby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Just win, baby. Usually good advice. My favorite exception is still this one, where BC is guaranteed to finish #1 or #2 if they lose, but could fall to #3 with a tie. Silly PWR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagies Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 WOW! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frozen4sioux Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Uffda down to 12 but going into the last few games last year they were around 12 and then end up a 1seed so..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Chart of the year. And yes, they are playing this weekend. From Small rankings moves likely for UND in bye week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoggy Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I really thought you had a mix up and nothing was on that graph the first time I saw it. Has anyone seen Quinnipiac? Legit? Product of who they play? I'm not going to deny that they obviously are good, but I'm curious how they'd do in the WCHA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianvf Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Has anyone seen Quinnipiac? Legit? Product of who they play? I'm not going to deny that they obviously are good, but I'm curious how they'd do in the WCHA. I haven't seen them play, but their schedule is definitely a bit lacking. They're obviously the class of the ECAC, and they've beaten a few lower-mid level CCHA and HEA teams...the best indicator was their sweep of UNO at Quinnipiac, which is impressive. That said, like others have mentioned above, I would love UND to be the #2 seed put in #1 Quinnipiac's bracket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big A HG Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I haven't seen them play, but their schedule is definitely a bit lacking. They're obviously the class of the ECAC, and they've beaten a few lower-mid level CCHA and HEA teams...the best indicator was their sweep of UNO at Quinnipiac, which is impressive. That said, like others have mentioned above, I would love UND to be the #2 seed put in #1 Quinnipiac's bracket. Be careful what you wish for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
802Sioux Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 http://www.quinnipiacbobcats.tv/ If you want a peek at Quinnipiac you can catch a free stream here in a few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snake Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Chart of the year. And yes, they are playing this weekend. From Small rankings moves likely for UND in bye week I realize this forecast is for just this weekend, but how volatile are they for the rest of the season (Win 0 vs. Win 6)? Thanks for your analysis, Jim! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GFG Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I realize this forecast is for just this weekend, but how volatile are they for the rest of the season (Win 0 vs. Win 6)? Thanks for your analysis, Jim! Someone did that on GPL and found it's EXTREMELY difficult for anyone to overtake them. I believe the most they could win is 2 of their last 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Someone did that on GPL and found it's EXTREMELY difficult for anyone to overtake them. I believe the most they could win is 2 of their last 6. That's pretty close to right. .500 is the first measurable risk of dropping to #2. Winning only 2 of the 6 makes it a very real possibility. Less than that makes it very likely. It's tough to imagine QU not being a 1 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frozen4sioux Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's tough to imagine QU not being a 1 seed. Its tough to imagine QU. Being a 1 seed !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Its tough to imagine QU. Being a 1 seed !! I want to be in their region no matter what it takes, even if it means we don't win a fourth wcha final title in a row. I know that will upset most on this board, but what's a more managle path to the frozen four, going through QU or the likes of miami, bc or minny? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakotaNation Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I want to be in a regional with no WCHA members. In the past two years playing Denver and Minny at the Final Five then being placed in the same regional as them, not a fan of that, but who is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tho0505 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I want to be in a regional with no WCHA members. In the past two years playing Denver and Minny at the Final Five then being placed in the same regional as them is, not a fan of that, but who is. Completely agree, I get that the Pairwise and RPI are computer generated and that is the last call. But if QU is in the WCHA they'd be in the middle of the pack. When you play the best, you beat up the best. And down the stretch it hurts the WCHA come tournament time. We saw this with Union last year as well. I read recently that QU has 11 seniors, that seems to be the answer in making a good run in a conference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZSIOUX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Mankato putting themselves in a nice spot come this last month. Tied 8th with Scsu in pairwise as of now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 You guys above anyone should know better than to discount no-name eastern schools. Whether is cheer on HC or getting beaten by Yale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Mankato putting themselves in a nice spot come this last month. Tied 8th with Scsu in pairwise as of now. Their record against the TUC's "could" hurt them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Their record against the TUC's "could" hurt them. what 8-9-1 isn't going to cut it? that being said when it is all said and done I think msum will end up being a 3-4 seed, minny will be a one seed, und will be a two and scsu will be a two as well and denver a three. I've said it before I would love to end up being an 8 seed paired up in qu's bracket. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scpa0305 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 what 8-9-1 isn't going to cut it? that being said when it is all said and done I think msum will end up being a 3-4 seed, minny will be a one seed, und will be a two and scsu will be a two as well and denver a three. I've said it before I would love to end up being an 8 seed paired up in qu's bracket. I would too....but I would rather have have a 1/2 seed and get that first win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I agree with sagard on this one. I don't need to replay the sad effort against Yale a few years ago as a reminder. I still remember BC hanging 8 or 9 on the Bulldogs day later. Groan... QU might surprise some people... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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