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jimdahl

Pairwise Rankings

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jimdahl   

After my first post on PWR predictions this year, in which I predicted doom if UND got swept, UND managed to inch slightly up despite only taking 1 point from the weekend.

Look back at the chart, UND did land well within it's "win 1" possibilities curve. It landed near the top thanks to a convincing St. Cloud sweep of Denver, which KRACH gave only about a 12% chance of occurring. That gave North Dakota the comparison with Denver on the basis of RPI. In future weeks I'll again start to include the key games to watch.

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jimdahl   

UND still with much more downside potential than upside going into this weekend.

Weekly rankings analysis

20130124UNDoneweek.png

Upside potential

  • Cornell and/or Colgate wins over Yale could help UND take the comparison with Yale as TUC comes into play when Yale reaches 10 games vs. TUCs.

    Downside potential

    • A Bentley win over Holy Cross could knock Holy Cross out of consideration. This would considerably harm UND’s winning percentage vs. TUCs.
    • A Clarkson win over Dartmouth would be enough to give Dartmouth the edge over UND’s current RPI. A St. Lawrence win over Dartmouth would have a slightly smaller effect.
    • A pair of Wisconsin wins over Alaska Anchorage could be enough to take RPI and COP, and thus the comparison with UND.
    • A Mass.-Lowell win over Northeastern would give Mass.-Lowell the edge over UND’s current RPI and the comparison with UND.

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jimdahl   

UND settling into a more natural rating for its performance. If they win they climb, if they lose they fall. But, UND is still the single most volatile team in the PWR this weekend.

20130129UNDoneweek.png

The season outlook continues to track the original prediction from a couple weeks ago.

20130129UNDendofyear.png

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Smoggy   

I really thought you had a mix up and nothing was on that graph the first time I saw it.

Has anyone seen Quinnipiac? Legit? Product of who they play? I'm not going to deny that they obviously are good, but I'm curious how they'd do in the WCHA.

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brianvf   

Has anyone seen Quinnipiac? Legit? Product of who they play? I'm not going to deny that they obviously are good, but I'm curious how they'd do in the WCHA.

I haven't seen them play, but their schedule is definitely a bit lacking. They're obviously the class of the ECAC, and they've beaten a few lower-mid level CCHA and HEA teams...the best indicator was their sweep of UNO at Quinnipiac, which is impressive.

That said, like others have mentioned above, I would love UND to be the #2 seed put in #1 Quinnipiac's bracket. :)

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Big A HG   

I haven't seen them play, but their schedule is definitely a bit lacking. They're obviously the class of the ECAC, and they've beaten a few lower-mid level CCHA and HEA teams...the best indicator was their sweep of UNO at Quinnipiac, which is impressive.

That said, like others have mentioned above, I would love UND to be the #2 seed put in #1 Quinnipiac's bracket. :)

Be careful what you wish for. ;)

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GFG   

I realize this forecast is for just this weekend, but how volatile are they for the rest of the season (Win 0 vs. Win 6)?

Thanks for your analysis, Jim!

Someone did that on GPL and found it's EXTREMELY difficult for anyone to overtake them. I believe the most they could win is 2 of their last 6.

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jimdahl   

Someone did that on GPL and found it's EXTREMELY difficult for anyone to overtake them. I believe the most they could win is 2 of their last 6.

That's pretty close to right.

original.jpg

.500 is the first measurable risk of dropping to #2. Winning only 2 of the 6 makes it a very real possibility. Less than that makes it very likely.

It's tough to imagine QU not being a 1 seed.

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Its tough to imagine QU. Being a 1 seed !!

I want to be in their region no matter what it takes, even if it means we don't win a fourth wcha final title in a row. I know that will upset most on this board, but what's a more managle path to the frozen four, going through QU or the likes of miami, bc or minny?

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tho0505   

I want to be in a regional with no WCHA members. In the past two years playing Denver and Minny at the Final Five then being placed in the same regional as them is, not a fan of that, but who is.

Completely agree, I get that the Pairwise and RPI are computer generated and that is the last call. But if QU is in the WCHA they'd be in the middle of the pack. When you play the best, you beat up the best. And down the stretch it hurts the WCHA come tournament time.

We saw this with Union last year as well. I read recently that QU has 11 seniors, that seems to be the answer in making a good run in a conference.

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Goon   

Mankato putting themselves in a nice spot come this last month. Tied 8th with Scsu in pairwise as of now.

Their record against the TUC's "could" hurt them.

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Their record against the TUC's "could" hurt them.

what 8-9-1 isn't going to cut it? :D that being said when it is all said and done I think msum will end up being a 3-4 seed, minny will be a one seed, und will be a two and scsu will be a two as well and denver a three. I've said it before I would love to end up being an 8 seed paired up in qu's bracket.

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scpa0305   

what 8-9-1 isn't going to cut it? :D that being said when it is all said and done I think msum will end up being a 3-4 seed, minny will be a one seed, und will be a two and scsu will be a two as well and denver a three. I've said it before I would love to end up being an 8 seed paired up in qu's bracket.

I would too....but I would rather have have a 1/2 seed and get that first win.

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MafiaMan   

I agree with sagard on this one. I don't need to replay the sad effort against Yale a few years ago as a reminder. I still remember BC hanging 8 or 9 on the Bulldogs day later. Groan...

QU might surprise some people...

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