175 replies to this topic

[Chuck Schwartz]

Goon, on 23 February 2011 - 02:11 PM, said:

I personally don't think Wisconsin is going to make tourney when it's all said and done. Unless they make the Final Five and play a couple of games.

Why? They have two for sure series (SCSU and (CC) who are both TUC's and most likely a first round WCHA play off match up against a team who will be a TUC (most likely CC). So that's 6 games against average at best teams that will boost our PWR with wins. Sure, we haven't had success against the top end teams, but we have had succes with teams like St. Cloud and CC. Wisconsin has a real good opportunity to improve their stock the next three weekends.

And what does making the Final Five have to do with anything? it's not like those games count for more than games this weekend. Especially if we dont' do well at the FF.

[jimdahl]

Funny timing, UND's own PWR situation is so boring that I just wrote a blog post on UW's this morning -- Minnesota and Wisconsin tournament watch

I initially only focused on this weekend, but just added a chart for all four remaining regular season games. Looks like UW really needs to win 3 to stay in a holding pattern, while sweeping would put them in the driver's seat. From the former position, a strong showing in the play-in round and tournament would probably be required to climb. From the latter, a respectable play-in and early exit would likely suffice. That will all become much more certain once the matchups are determined.

[SJHovey]

I think another thing that might work in Minnesota's, Wisconsin's, or even CC's favor, is that we might see less likelihood of a non-pwr qualifying team winning an upset automatic qualifier bid. We don't have the CHA anymore, with BSU making it on numbers but a team like UAH winning the tournament. Only the auto qualifier in the AHA will make it. Plus, with the better showing by ECAC teams in the regular season this year, it's more likely the winner of their tournament would already be in anyways. The best chances for an upset win appear to be from BU, Western Michigan, Dartmouth, and maybe Maine. But I don't really see that happening. Pretty good chance, imho, there will be 15 pwr spots available.

[Oxbow6]

My feeling is UND has a better than 50% chance of going to St. Louis as of right now. If WI gets into the tourney, I think that goes to 75%. Just a hunch, but the NC$$ is all about the almighty dollar and when push comes to shove, there isn't any other team that can or will attract fans to St. Louis to make attendance somewhat respectable other than UND.

[Boogieman]

It just confirmation of how the NCAA knows nothing about the college hockey culture. Regionals should be held in nothing other than college hockey cities/towns period. I get that there needs to be a capacity minimum for seating at the venues, but college hockey is a very condensed culture. In my perfect world, the four number one seeds would host the regional at their venues. They've earned it. And secondly the whole "no interconference match-ups in the first round" thing would go out the door. So you've got a true 1 v. 16, 2 v. 15, 3 v. 14, etc. etc.

[gopherz]

jimdahl, on 23 February 2011 - 03:17 PM, said:

Funny timing, UND's own PWR situation is so boring that I just wrote a blog post on UW's this morning -- Minnesota and Wisconsin tournament watch

I initially only focused on this weekend, but just added a chart for all four remaining regular season games. Looks like UW really needs to win 3 to stay in a holding pattern, while sweeping would put them in the driver's seat. From the former position, a strong showing in the play-in round and tournament would probably be required to climb. From the latter, a respectable play-in and early exit would likely suffice. That will all become much more certain once the matchups are determined.

Would you mind putting a Gopher one up for the rest of the year as well?

[LeftyZL]

gopherz, on 24 February 2011 - 01:40 PM, said:

Would you mind putting a Gopher one up for the rest of the year as well?

He already did.

Minnesota Tourney Watch

[gopherz]

LeftyZL, on 24 February 2011 - 01:44 PM, said:

He already did.

Minnesota Tourney Watch

Unless I'm seeing something wrong, he only has next weekend's "win 2" as the max for the Gophers, where as he has the Badgers played out all year.

[nodakvindy]

Boogieman, on 24 February 2011 - 10:54 AM, said:

And secondly the whole "no interconference match-ups in the first round" thing would go out the door. So you've got a true 1 v. 16, 2 v. 15, 3 v. 14, etc. etc.

Couldn't disagree with this more. We see the same conference teams all year, and then have respective conference tournaments. The last thing I want is to meet up with a conference team again right away in the NCAAs. I think the no first round matchups is a must, and would like to see it extended to the second round as well. If four teams from a conference make the tourney, they should all be in different regions.

[Oxbow6]

With Denver losing and UMD in a freefall and UND hopefully taking care of their own business, pack your bags for St. Louis. Michigan or Notre Dame IMO will wind up in Green Bay as the 1 seed.

[fargosioux]

Here's my crack at this week's bracketology:

East (Bridgeport):
Yale vs. RIT (or Atlantic Hockey Winner)
Merrimack vs. Notre Dame

West (St. Louis):
North Dakota vs. Boston University
Nebraska-Omaha vs. Miami

Midwest (Green Bay):
Michigan vs. Colorado College
Union vs. Duluth

Northeast (Manchester):
Boston College vs. RPI
Denver vs. New Hampshire

[Stack]

fargosioux, on 28 February 2011 - 09:47 AM, said:

Here's my crack at this week's bracketology:

East (Bridgeport):
Yale vs. RIT (or Atlantic Hockey Winner)
Merrimack vs. Notre Dame

West (St. Louis):
North Dakota vs. Boston University
Nebraska-Omaha vs. Miami

Midwest (Green Bay):
Michigan vs. Colorado College
Union vs. Duluth

Northeast (Manchester):
Boston College vs. RPI
Denver vs. New Hampshire

Not sure if you are predicting these regionals but if we bracketed today with the current Pairwise you would have:

East (Bridgeport) Yale is the host:
#1 Yale vs #16 RIT/Atlantic Champ
#8 Nebraska Omaha vs #9 Notre Dame

Midwest: (Green Bay) (Michigan Tech is the host)
#2 North Dakota vs #15 Dartmouth Unless they only use the RPI as a tie breaker and then BU would oust Dartmouth here
#7 Merrimack vs #10 Miami

Northeast (Manchester) UNH is the host:
#3 Boston College vs #14 Colorado College
#6 Union vs #11 New Hampshire (Duluth is tied with UNH with Duluth getting the tie breaker but they can put UNH in here)

West (St Louis) Host is actually the CCHA no real team.
#4 Michigan vs # 13 Rensselaer
# 5 Denver vs #12 Duluth (we can't have this so now what?) Why not just swap Rensselaer and Duluth so no first round conference match up). so we'd end up with

#4 Michigan vs #12 Duluth
#5 Denver vs #13 Rensselaer


So would these brackets be so bad? Maybe for attendance you swap the entire Midwest and West Brackets to put Michigan and Duluth close to Green Bay but that's about it. Of course a lot of these will be decided based upon the tie breaker they use.

[fargosioux]

Stack, on 28 February 2011 - 03:21 PM, said:

Not sure if you are predicting these regionals but if we bracketed today with the current Pairwise you would have:

East (Bridgeport) Yale is the host:
#1 Yale vs #16 RIT/Atlantic Champ
#8 Nebraska Omaha vs #9 Notre Dame

Midwest: (Green Bay) (Michigan Tech is the host)
#2 North Dakota vs #15 Dartmouth Unless they only use the RPI as a tie breaker and then BU would oust Dartmouth here
#7 Merrimack vs #10 Miami

Northeast (Manchester) UNH is the host:
#3 Boston College vs #14 Colorado College
#6 Union vs #11 New Hampshire (Duluth is tied with UNH with Duluth getting the tie breaker but they can put UNH in here)

West (St Louis) Host is actually the CCHA no real team.
#4 Michigan vs # 13 Rensselaer
# 5 Denver vs #12 Duluth (we can't have this so now what?) Why not just swap Rensselaer and Duluth so no first round conference match up). so we'd end up with

#4 Michigan vs #12 Duluth
#5 Denver vs #13 Rensselaer


So would these brackets be so bad? Maybe for attendance you swap the entire Midwest and West Brackets to put Michigan and Duluth close to Green Bay but that's about it. Of course a lot of these will be decided based upon the tie breaker they use.

Duluth is a #3 seed and RPI is a #4 seed, so you can't swap them. Swapping is only done within each band of seeds.

[txsioux]

When you think about it, that number one seed overall is a big deal. RIT or RTI whatever it would be versus a Hockey East school in Maine or BU....come on pairwise figure yourself out....

[siouxweet]

txsioux, on 28 February 2011 - 03:49 PM, said:

When you think about it, that number one seed overall is a big deal. RIT or RTI whatever it would be versus a Hockey East school in Maine or BU....come on pairwise figure yourself out....

yale doesn't have enough games against TUC's left that they can lose. best we can hope for is us winning the final five and they lose in the ecac semi's against a TUC(they wouldn't face any before that) and then we would still fall about a half a percentage short of flipping that comparison. I really don't think if it comes down to that the committe would put us number one based on their past history. best we can hope for is the number two overall seed. unless jim can come up with other scenario. another possible scenario is there be a surprise champion in in say the ecac where a non tuc or dartmouth wins it. then we would avoid the likes of facing a bu or even maine in the first round.

[fargosioux]

txsioux, on 28 February 2011 - 03:49 PM, said:

When you think about it, that number one seed overall is a big deal. RIT or RTI whatever it would be versus a Hockey East school in Maine or BU....come on pairwise figure yourself out....

Agreed. Unfortunately I think it's going to be very hard to jump past Yale. I think they need to lose a couple games against TUC's in the ECAC tournament. In addition, I think we'd need to win the Broadmoor in order to jump them in the TUC record and flip our comparison with them. I have a feeling we are destined for #2 overall in the PWR.

Playing Michigan Tech the next 4 games isn't helping our record agains TUCs, which is where we need help right now.

[fargosioux]

siouxweet, on 28 February 2011 - 04:12 PM, said:

yale doesn't have enough games against TUC's left that they can lose. best we can hope for is us winning the final five and they lose in the ecac semi's against a TUC(they wouldn't face any before that) and then we would still fall about a half a percentage short of flipping that comparison. I really don't think if it comes down to that the committe would put us number one based on their past history. best we can hope for is the number two overall seed. unless jim can come up with other scenario. another possible scenario is there be a surprise champion in in say the ecac where a non tuc or dartmouth wins it. then we would avoid the likes of facing a bu or even maine in the first round.

I think they could play Quinnipiac in the second round if there was an upset somewhere else in the first round, since re-seeding is done after the first round.. Quinnipiac is a TUC right now (barely). Then if Quinnipiac takes them to 3 games and they lose in the semifinals, I believe we could pass them. The stars would kind of have to align, but I think it's possible.

[siouxweet]

fargosioux, on 28 February 2011 - 04:14 PM, said:

Agreed. Unfortunately I think it's going to be very hard to jump past Yale. I think they need to lose a couple games against TUC's in the ECAC tournament. In addition, I think we'd need to win the Broadmoor in order to jump them in the TUC record and flip our comparison with them. I have a feeling we are destined for #2 overall in the PWR.

Playing Michigan Tech the next 4 games isn't helping our record agains TUCs, which is where we need help right now.

nor would it help if bemidji, uaa or robert morris fall out of TUC status which all three are right on the cusp right now. in which we are 8-0-1 against those four teams right now.

[Stack]

fargosioux, on 28 February 2011 - 03:31 PM, said:

Duluth is a #3 seed and RPI is a #4 seed, so you can't swap them. Swapping is only done within each band of seeds.

Sorry I forgot about that . I was looking at the Pairwise on College Hockey News and their version has Dartmouth ahead of BU for the final spot. USCHO is using the RPI as a tie breaker even though Dartmouth wins the individual comparisons with both BU and Maine. But if we go with what USCHO has:

The first group is 1 Yale, 2 North Dakota, 3 BC, 4 Michigan
Second group is 5 Denver, 6 Union, 7 Merrimack, 8 Omaha
Third group is 9 Notre Dame, 10 Miami, 11 Duluth, 12 UNH
Fourth Group is 13 RPI, 14 CC, 15 BU, 16 TBD

Since Yale and UNH are hosts they have to be placed in Bridgeport (Yale) and Manchester (UNH). But for the first go round I will place the Number 1 seeds closest to their regional.

So we're back to
Bridgeport
1 Yale vs 16 Atlantic hockey
8 Omaha vs 9 Notre Dame

Green Bay
2 UND vs 15 BU
7 Merrimack vs 10 Miami

Manchester
3 BC vs 14 CC
6 Union vs 11 Duluth

St Louis
4 Michigan vs 13 RPI
5 Denver vs 12 UNH

Why not just put the Michigan bracket in Manchester and the BC bracket in St Louis? Hey I'm done.

Who knew that when Yale beat CC early this year that common opponent criteria keeps Yale ahead of North Dakota.

[siouxweet]

Stack, on 28 February 2011 - 04:43 PM, said:

Sorry I forgot about that . I was looking at the Pairwise on College Hockey News and their version has Dartmouth ahead of BU for the final spot. USCHO is using the RPI as a tie breaker even though Dartmouth wins the individual comparisons with both BU and Maine. But if we go with what USCHO has:

The first group is 1 Yale, 2 North Dakota, 3 BC, 4 Michigan
Second group is 5 Denver, 6 Union, 7 Merrimack, 8 Omaha
Third group is 9 Notre Dame, 10 Miami, 11 Duluth, 12 UNH
Fourth Group is 13 RPI, 14 CC, 15 BU, 16 TBD

Since Yale and UNH are hosts they have to be placed in Bridgeport (Yale) and Manchester (UNH). But for the first go round I will place the Number 1 seeds closest to their regional.

So we're back to
Bridgeport
1 Yale vs 16 Atlantic hockey
8 Omaha vs 9 Notre Dame

Green Bay
2 UND vs 15 BU
7 Merrimack vs 10 Miami

Manchester
3 BC vs 14 CC
6 Union vs 11 Duluth

St Louis
4 Michigan vs 13 RPI
5 Denver vs 12 UNH

Why not just put the Michigan bracket in Manchester and the BC bracket in St Louis? Hey I'm done.

Who knew that when Yale beat CC early this year that common opponent criteria keeps Yale ahead of North Dakota.

UNH has to stay in manchester as they are the host.