The Upcoming Special Season

[choyt3]

Yeah, Vanek and Kessel were legit at #5 and both were better than Wheeler. I just view draft location in the first round in such a way that the top 5 are as close to "can't miss" prospects as one can project, the top 10 are the "elite prospects" and the rest of the first round are those prospects with uspides superior to the rest of the draft. I don't see Wheeler as a "can't miss" prospect, which is why I'm so hard on him. You're right that I shouldn't really use this to judge how a player fares in college, but both Vanek and Kessel were "can't miss" prospects who did pretty darn good in college even their freshmen years.

While one can categorize a "can't miss" to whatever number they want, it is NEVER an exact science. Ask Jason Herter, or the Vancouver Canucks, for that matter. It would be interesting to know what the message board experts thought of Blake Wheeler before he had played a game for Minnesota. If someone such as Wayne Gretzky felt he was a legit pick at #5, that should be a good enough explanation. To call someone that knew the game of hockey better at the age of 10 than you likely ever will "delusional" seems quite laughable.

[Sterling]

Last year we scored 164 goals and were one of the highest scoring teams in the WCHA. 61% of those goals were scored by returning players so I don't see a lot of pressure being placed on incoming freshmen to score(which is good). I think we can all expect Oshie, Toews and Duncan to be around 20 goals each this season and our defense is better. We only lost 4 goals on defense from last year (Smaby). Its reasonable to assume we will get greater goal scoring production from the defense this year. We only scored 14 goals on defense last year and Brian Lee will absord what we lost offensively from Smaby himself. If we can get 10+ goals from guys like Porter, Kozek and Watkins (here's the guys with the highest level of pressure to perform this year), anything we get from the freshman and other players like Fabian/Kaip is a bonus.

All we need is a fraction of the level of productivity from our incoming freshmen over last year and we'll be in great shape.

Vandy is a big body sniper and depending on the role he is given by the coaches, has a good shot at scoring 10 goals. Forney too if he stays healthy. Who knows, Miller, Bishop and Zajac could all contribute more than we think.

IMHO I think we'll score 175+ goals this year but the bigger question is, how many will we give up?

We're going to have another great season of Fighting Sioux Hockey!

[Trunk Monkey]

Last year we scored 164 goals and were one of the highest scoring teams in the WCHA. 61% of those goals were scored by returning players so I don't see a lot of pressure being placed on incoming freshmen to score(which is good). I think we can all expect Oshie, Toews and Duncan to be around 20 goals each this season and our defense is better. We only lost 4 goals on defense from last year (Smaby). Its reasonable to assume we will get greater goal scoring production from the defense this year. We only scored 14 goals on defense last year and Brian Lee will absord what we lost offensively from Smaby himself. If we can get 10+ goals from guys like Porter, Kozek and Watkins (here's the guys with the highest level of pressure to perform this year), anything we get from the freshman and other players like Fabian/Kaip is a bonus.

All we need is a fraction of the level of productivity from our incoming freshmen over last year and we'll be in great shape.

Vandy is a big body sniper and depending on the role he is given by the coaches, has a good shot at scoring 10 goals. Forney too if he stays healthy. Who knows, Miller, Bishop and Zajac could all contribute more than we think.

IMHO I think we'll score 175+ goals this year but the bigger question is, how many will we give up?

We're going to have another great season of Fighting Sioux Hockey!

So if you expect Oshie, Toews and Duncan to each have around 20 goals and you are predicting the team will score 175 goals in total, who is going to score the other 105 goals?

[LeftyZL]

So if you expect Oshie, Toews and Duncan to each have around 20 goals and you are predicting the team will score 175 goals in total, who is going to score the other 106 goals?

This is just me, but I would expect:

Porter to have 10-15 goals

Fabian to have 10ish goals

Kozek to have 10-20 goals

Kaip to have 5-10 goals

Vandevelde to have 10ish goals

Lee to have 5-10 goals

Forney to have 10ish goals

All other defensemen to have 10-15 goals

Miller, Watkins, Foyt, and Zajac to have 10-20 goals

Now assuming every player I listed reaches the middle ground of my goals for them, that would put UND very close to having 175 goals scored for the season, assuming Oshie, Towes, and Duncan contribute 20ish goals each.

[Sioux]

i personally would not be surprised if toews had 30 to 35 goals(im very high on him this year. and oshie would not surprise me if he did the same, id put duncan at around 20. of course with all of these goals there has to be a set up guy or two... im not really sure who would be a "specialist" in that deptartment.

[Sterling]

Toews 25

Oshie 22

Duncan 18

Lee 15

Kozek 14

Porter 13

Watkins 10

Vandevelde 9

Fabian 8

Kaip 7

Forney 6

Miller 5

Radke 5

Chorney 5

Zajac 4

Bina 4

Genoway 3

Jones 1

Finley 1

total 175

TrunkMonkey, I doubt this prediction is much of a stretch (could be considered somewhat conservative) and it doesn't include several other players that will likely break the line up for a fews games this season such as Bishop and Martens....

[Sioux-per Villain]

I agree with Sterling. With the offensive talent we have coming back, 175 goals should be a lock. That's basically what our average goals have been over the past 7 years which includes low offensive teams from 2001 and 2004 where we scored 134 and 136 goals respectively. I also think we'll be on the power play more often than shorthanded which will contribute significantly to our offensive production.

In the words of Gov. Pawlenty, "Drop the F#$@ing Puck!"

[Trunk Monkey]

Toews 25

Oshie 22

Duncan 18

Lee 15

Kozek 14

Porter 13

Watkins 10

Vandevelde 9

Fabian 8

Kaip 7

Forney 6

Miller 5

Radke 5

Chorney 5

Zajac 4

Bina 4

Genoway 3

Jones 1

Finley 1

total 175

TrunkMonkey, I doubt this prediction is much of a stretch (could be considered somewhat conservative) and it doesn't include several other players that will likely break the line up for a fews games this season such as Bishop and Martens....

I was not disagreeing with you just merely asking you who you thought would get the other goals. I hope your predictions are accurate as we will be a tough team to beat.

[Goon]

Toews 30

Oshie 25

Duncan 20

Lee 15

Kozek 15

Porter 15

Watkins 10

Vandevelde 10

Fabian 10

Kaip 10

Forney 6

Miller 5

Radke 8

Chorney 5

Zajac 10

Bina 4

Genoway 5

Jones 1

Finley

total 190 I changed Sterlings numbers and this is what I came up with.

[Fetch]

I'm going to disagree & say again Oshie is going to shatter your goals prediction & on the PP (at least) Toews will be the set up man for both Duncan & Oshie ---It will be a year to remember

[farce poobah]

Warning: Long and Optimistic ... but things are so quiet that is seemed like a good time for it.

I've been known to sandbag a bit, to save myself from disappointment, avoid jinxes and to keep expectations from getting too lofty, but I've been thinking that I should tell any friends of mine who are just peripheral Sioux fans that they should pay attention this year. Because this has the potential to be a special year.

At the risk of devaluing the word, that would make this the fourth year in a row we will have the privilege of following a "special" team.

...

The combination of very top echelon stars with a good deep group of forwards, a maturing defense and solid goaltending makes this a team we may be reminiscing about for years. I'm sure they'll have their issues along the way, and they may not win it all, but it should be fun to watch.

JK, Great start to a thread. As a perennial optimist, I share the sentiment, and I agree this team has the potential to be great.

So what are the possible shortcomings of this team? What did we lose that will be hardest to replace? I can think of two things, both of which have been mainstays to recent Sioux success:

1) Mean. We lost a bunch of mean, particularly Smaby and Prpich. Will this year's team be mean enough, will we play with the same edge, that recent Sioux teams have had? A team takes on the character of its best players and its lockerroom leaders; last year = Smaby, a guy who fractured his arm and then went back out for a few more shifts. We've all seen talented but underperforming teams (not to name names, but we've seen somebody's season end the last 2 years ) and the difference is mixing in meanness, grittiness, "role players" with the abundance of pure hockey talent wearing Sioux jerseys this year.

2) Goal. The most important position in hockey, and JPar was a great fit for what was needed behind the Sioux defense - terrific at making the first save and putting rebounds where a D can get it. Will Phil step forward and end his career the way Andy Kollar did? or the way Jon Casey did (after seeing national titles from the bench as an underclassman, leading the team as an upperclassman) ... I think he has the potential to surprise on the upside.

All in all, the ingredients are definitely in place. What becomes of that potential is, as the cliche goes, up to the players.

[redwing77]

JK, Great start to a thread. As a perennial optimist, I share the sentiment, and I agree this team has the potential to be great.

So what are the possible shortcomings of this team? What did we lose that will be hardest to replace? I can think of two things, both of which have been mainstays to recent Sioux success:

1) Mean. We lost a bunch of mean, particularly Smaby and Prpich. Will this year's team be mean enough, will we play with the same edge, that recent Sioux teams have had? A team takes on the character of its best players and its lockerroom leaders; last year = Smaby, a guy who fractured his arm and then went back out for a few more shifts. We've all seen talented but underperforming teams (not to name names, but we've seen somebody's season end the last 2 years ) and the difference is mixing in meanness, grittiness, "role players" with the abundance of pure hockey talent wearing Sioux jerseys this year.

2) Goal. The most important position in hockey, and JPar was a great fit for what was needed behind the Sioux defense - terrific at making the first save and putting rebounds where a D can get it. Will Phil step forward and end his career the way Andy Kollar did? or the way Jon Casey did (after seeing national titles from the bench as an underclassman, leading the team as an upperclassman) ... I think he has the potential to surprise on the upside.

All in all, the ingredients are definitely in place. What becomes of that potential is, as the cliche goes, up to the players.

A correction, farce. Smaby never fractured his arm. That was Finley. Otherwise, some good points.

As for meanness, you cited two mean guys we lost, and I agree. But we have three mean guys returning: Finley, Jones, and Kaip. Radke has an edgy side too.

Goal is a good question. I have no idea on that one.

One thing that worries me is depth. Yeah, we have enough players to cover injuries, I think, but there's still concerns with how well they will play, in my opinion.

[Sioux_Hab-it]

The team has the required depth at all positions and IMO the total number of goals scored this season should hinge on the progression of two key D-men, Lee and Radke. If both can realize their offensive potential this season, this lineup has the potential to set an all-time Sioux goal scoring record.

[dagies]

Younger Zajac is coming in and should help provide some of the grittiness that Prpich leaves with. Though Prpich has the experience and maturity to complement it.

Here's a question for the experts. Now that there is more offensive skill with the defense, will opposing teams have to pay more attention up high in their own zone, thereby potentially opening up more room for the forwards down low?

[sagard]

Here's a question for the experts. Now that there is more offensive skill with the defense, will opposing teams have to pay more attention up high in their own zone, thereby potentially opening up more room for the forwards down low?

I'm no expert, but I would expect UND to generate more chances on the fly. The puck may not have to go down low for cycling every time before a quality chance is generated. Finding a power play point man that can both shoot and distribute would give UND the edge on the rest of the WCHA in my opinion. I think UW is still the best and UND and UM will be in spots two and three in some order.

[Sioux-per Villain]

I agree that the Sioux should be solid in transition and not need to dump and chase as much this year. But I'm not convinced that UW is the top team after losing Pavelski, Earl, Burish, Gilbert and MacMurchy. Yes they still have Elliott but no proven scoring depth returning. I could be wrong but IMO Mn still has to be the team to beat.

[Sioux]

I'm no expert, but I would expect UND to generate more chances on the fly. The puck may not have to go down low for cycling every time before a quality chance is generated. Finding a power play point man that can both shoot and distribute would give UND the edge on the rest of the WCHA in my opinion. I think UW is still the best and UND and UM will be in spots two and three in some order.

i hate to disagree, but just because uw has one good player at each position doesnt mean that they will be good again...they will be good though, just not a top 3 wcha team. they will be like du was last year(except not as sucessful in the league) and not make the playoff barely.

[Goon]

I'm going to disagree & say again Oshie is going to shatter your goals prediction & on the PP (at least) Toews will be the set up man for both Duncan & Oshie ---It will be a year to remember

Fetch I am holding you to that one.

[Southernmn]

I agree that the Sioux should be solid in transition and not need to dump and chase as much this year. But I'm not convinced that UW is the top team after losing Pavelski, Earl, Burish, Gilbert and MacMurchy. Yes they still have Elliott but no proven scoring depth returning. I could be wrong but IMO Mn still has to be the team to beat.

Agreed........UW is going to have win a LOT of 1-0 or 2-1 games, or they will be in the middle of the WCHA when it is all over, which is where I think they will end up.

[siouxnami]

Goon, I like you optimistic goal predictions, BUT Lee 15 I hope your right, but I SERIOUSLY doubt it.

[redwing77]

Goon, I like you optimistic goal predictions, BUT Lee 15 I hope your right, but I SERIOUSLY doubt it.

I think Lee's offensive upside is simply monster, but 15 goals is a tad high, IMO as well.

[Blackheart]

How about....Sioux struggle through the early months and find their stride around playoff time...Sound familiar?

Sorry, I can't join the lovefest here...it's kind of like if you think something is going to happen, it never does...the Sioux will be decent but there are a lot of question marks...Goalie, incoming frosh, how will last years frosh play? Just get into the top #14 by the selection show and I'll be happy...

[siouxnami]

As for meanness, you cited two mean guys we lost, and I agree. But we have three mean guys returning: Finley, Jones, and Kaip. Radke has an edgy side too.

Jones has alot of mean. Just cut down on some of the stupid, please.

[fightingsioux4life]

I agree that the Sioux should be solid in transition and not need to dump and chase as much this year. But I'm not convinced that UW is the top team after losing Pavelski, Earl, Burish, Gilbert and MacMurchy. Yes they still have Elliott but no proven scoring depth returning. I could be wrong but IMO Mn still has to be the team to beat.

Here are some reasons why the Golden Rodents are not the team to beat, either in the WCHA or NCAA:

1) Average Goaltending: Briggs and Frazee are not championship material. I'd take Lammy over either of them.

2) Shaky Defensemen: Last year, their blueliners struggled to take care of the puck in the defensive zone at times. That cannot continue if they hope to win anything other than regular season titles. And I'm sorry, but it's going to take more than Eric Johnson to make up for it.

3) No more Nodaks: Potulny and Irmen left for greener ($$$) pastures, along with Phil "Boy Wonder" Kessel and Kris Chucko. They are going to have to find scoring from other places to make up for these losses. UND lost a lot of talent to the pros as well, but I don't think we relied on any two players like the Rodents did on Potulny and Irmen.

Don't get me wrong, I think the Rodents will finish in the top 5 of the league and probably make the NCAA Tournament. But they have to address the above situations if they want to win more than regular-season titles.

[Goon]

Here are some reasons why the Golden Rodents are not the team to beat, either in the WCHA or NCAA:

1) Average Goaltending: Briggs and Frazee are not championship material. I'd take Lammy over either of them.

I like what your wrote here and I am going to take this one further and add that the Gophers have mediocre goaltending and I do think Lammy is a better goalie than either of the Goofers goalies.