Non-UND FCS Thread

[Hambone]

5 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

Both teams are 6-0. One has played a harder schedule. Seems pretty simple to decide who, to this point in time, has a better resume. 

Also, if you use only results from this year, USD is rated #39 (76.65) and NDSU is #46 at (74.83). The main rankings are still showing bias from outside this season. What's going to be your excuse for that?

This should be interesting Cotton........

[Gothmog]

Just now, jdub27 said:

Who has played a harder schedule?

Also, if you use only results from this year, USD is rated #39 (76.65) and NDSU  is #46 at (74.83), the main rankings are still showing bias from outside this season. What's going to be your excuse for that?

As I said before, NDSU and USD both beat up on 4 bad teams. It makes no difference if the four bad teams USD happened to have on the schedule were marginally better than the four that NDSU played. What does matter is that the two good wins on NDSU's resume are better than USD's.

[jdub27]

3 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

As I said before, NDSU and USD both beat up on 4 bad teams. It makes no difference if the four bad teams USD happened to have on the schedule were marginally better than the four that NDSU played. What does matter is that the two good wins on NDSU's resume are better than USD's.

I see you not surprisingly completely ignored my 2nd point, but you made up for it by making things up with your last sentence...

Best two wins on NDSU's schedule: 
YSU - 85 (64.03)
EWU - 117 (57.71)

Best two wins on USD's schedule:
WIU - 48 (64.71)
YSU - 85 (64.03)

USD's third and fourth wins are also better than NDSU's third. But I digress.

[Gothmog]

4 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

I see you not surprisingly completely ignored my 2nd point, but you made up for it by making things up with your last sentence...

Best two wins on NDSU's schedule: 
YSU - 85 (64.03)
EWU - 117 (57.71)

Best two wins on USD's schedule:
WIU - 48 (64.71)
YSU - 85 (64.03)

Road win over YSU makes that win better than USD's win over YSU. Again, you can't use Sagarin ratings that way.

BTW - you're now claiming that WIU is significantly better than the best team in the Big Sky.

[jdub27]

11 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

Road win over YSU makes that win better than USD's win over YSU. Again, you can't use Sagarin ratings that way.

You're right, Sagarin is currently assigning roughly 2.07/2.20 points for home field advantage this year. Since YSU is USD's second best win, you need to compare them correctly: Winning @WIU is better than winning @YSU (both team's best win) and beating YSU at home is better than winning @EWU (both team's second best win). Advantage USD.

When are you going to acknowledge the part where the rankings that only take into account this season show USD as better than NDSU?

[Gothmog]

Just now, jdub27 said:

Your right, Sagarin assigns roughly 2.07 points for home field advantage this year. Winning @WIU is still better than winning @YSU and beating YSU is still better than winning @EWU. Advantage USD.

When are you going to acknowledge the part where the rankings that only take into account this season show USD as better than NDSU?

You're fixated on Sagarin, not me. All other polls and ratings also have NDSU above USD. And those I've seen have EWU above WIU.

[homer]

1 minute ago, jdub27 said:

You're right, Sagarin is currently assigning roughly 2.07 points for home field advantage this year. Taking that into account, winning @WIU is still better than winning @YSU (both team's best win) and beating YSU is still better than winning @EWU (both teams second best win). Advantage USD.

When are you going to acknowledge the part where the rankings that only take into account this season show USD as better than NDSU?

He won't.  Cause he has blinders on.  NDSU has been very good this year but based on this year along, eye test or otherwise USD has been better.  

[jdub27]

Just now, Gothmog said:

You're fixated on Sagarin, not me. All other polls and ratings also have NDSU above USD. And those I've seen have EWU above WIU.

Ah, now I get how you're going to get around it.  

I brought up Sagarin because it's an objective measure of SOS, which shows USD with the same record as NDSU but a harder schedule. You are the one who brought individual rankings into it, which I then showed that rankings that only go off of this season have USD as above NDSU.  Remember, you're the one who made the claim that NDSU has a better resume but I've yet to see an objective measure that proves that.....

On 10/14/2017 at 10:43 PM, Gothmog said:

BTW - take an honest look at USD's schedule so far. They've played 2 good teams: Western Illinois and Youngstown. With road wins over two top 10 FCS teams, NDSU actually has the better resume. Bowling Green is a bad FBS team. 

 

[Longtime fan]

36 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

You're really grasping at straws here. The term "resume," as you're using it, is meaningless unless it can be used as an overall rating of that team, and then be compared directly to other teams. To say that a team can be rated higher but have a poorer "resume" in the same rating system is just silly.

 

 

USD 38 your team 28 

[Gothmog]

13 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

Ah, now I get how you're going to get around it.  

I brought up Sagarin because it's an objective measure of SOS, which shows USD with the same record as NDSU but a harder schedule. You are the one who brought individual rankings into it, which I then showed that rankings that only go off of this season have USD as above NDSU.  Remember, you're the one who made the claim that NDSU has a better resume but I've yet to see an objective measure that proves that.....

 

No, if Sagarin is an objective measure of SOS, then it is an objective measure of a team's "resume." Again, you're misusing Sagarin. It can't mean something when comparing two team's opponents but mean nothing when comparing those teams directly.

 

[jdub27]

10 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

No, if Sagarin is an objective measure of SOS, then it is an objective measure of a team's "resume." Again, you're misusing Sagarin. It can't mean something when comparing two team's opponents but mean nothing when comparing those teams directly.

You're completely ignoring some other factors, including bias from previous seasons. By your "eye test" you claim NDSU has better wins but there are no objective numbers that bear that out. I also showed where it places USD ahead of NDSU using this season's results only, so how do you explain that outside of leaning on human polls and voters who slot vote and won't move NDSU down unless they lose.....?

[Gothmog]

5 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

You're completely ignoring some other factors, including bias from previous seasons. By your "eye test" you claim NDSU has better wins. Objective numbers don't bear that out.  I also showed where it places USD ahead of NDSU using this season's results only, which takes into account their resume from this season, so how do you explain that.....?

I've already explained that.  USD gets more credit for beating the poor teams on its schedule than does NDSU. That was my point in the first place.

 

[Gothmog]

23 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

You're completely ignoring some other factors, including bias from previous seasons. By your "eye test" you claim NDSU has better wins but there are no objective numbers that bear that out. I also showed where it places USD ahead of NDSU using this season's results only, so how do you explain that outside of leaning on human polls and voters who slot vote and won't move NDSU down unless they lose.....?

And BTW - have you done the same "this year" comparison for every one of USD and NDSU's opponents and recalculated USD and NDSU's SOS based on that?. If not, at  you're back at square one.

[Gothmog]

19 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

You're completely ignoring some other factors, including bias from previous seasons. By your "eye test" you claim NDSU has better wins but there are no objective numbers that bear that out. I also showed where it places USD ahead of NDSU using this season's results only, so how do you explain that outside of leaning on human polls and voters who slot vote and won't move NDSU down unless they lose.....?

Interesting that you would say that I'm ignoring other factors when you haven't mentioned any factors other than Sagarin (until this post of course).

 

 

[jdub27]

13 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

I've already explained that.  USD gets more credit for beating the poor teams on its schedule than does NDSU. That was my point in the first place.

They get more credit for beating poor teams even though they have a harder schedule? Seriously, step back and be objective. USD has played a harder schedule and to this point has a better resume. It's OK to admit. 

10 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

And BTW - have you done the same "this year" comparison for every one of USD and NDSU's opponents. If not, you're back at square one.

This year only SOS:
USD - #160 (49.93)
NDSU - #230 (36.66)

USD's schedule is even harder when looking at that.
Winning at YSU and WIU is basically a wash. Beating YSU is still better than winning at EWU. Beating Bowling Green is still significantly better than Missouri State. Advantage USD. 

I'm not saying that USD is going to beat NDSU. The point was made that they have a better resume to date and you took exception with it based on nothing but your eye test.

[Gothmog]

6 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

They get more credit for beating poor teams even though they have a harder schedule? Seriously, step back and be objective. USD has played a harder schedule and to this point has a better resume. It's OK to admit. 

This year only SOS:
USD - #160 (49.93)
NDSU - #230 (36.66)

USD's schedule is even harder when looking at that.
Winning at YSU and WIU is basically a wash. Beating YSU is still better than winning at EWU. Beating Bowling Green is still significantly better than Missouri State.

That just rehashes the same thing I objected to in the first place. USD gets more credit for beating bad teams than does NDSU.

[Siouxphan27]

3 hours ago, moser53 said:

Don't underestimate Doug Bergum. If NDSU being like an Oklahoma State is his dream-goal in his lifetime what will we see at SU that will give clues. 10 thousand  more students  1 billion endowment. Underestimate the will in Fargo not me.

 

[jdub27]

15 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

That just rehashes the same thing I objected to in the first place. USD get more credit for beating bad teams than does NDSU.

Considering the "bad" teams they have beaten aren't as bad as the "bad" teams NDSU has beaten, then yes, they should. Knowing that, I'm not sure how you can objectively say that NDSU has a better resume. 

This adjusts for where the game was. The only comparison NDSU wins is the first one by half a point. 

USD          NDSU 
@WIU  =  @YSU  (YSU by 0.5)
YSU     >  @EWU (YSU by 10.2)
@BGU >  MSU    (BGU by 21.9)
@UND >  @ISU   (UND by 11.2)
ISU      >  RMU    (ISU by 7.4)
Drake  >  MVSU  (Drake by 16.8)

 

[Gothmog]

Just now, jdub27 said:

Considering the "bad" teams they have beaten aren't as bad as the "bad" teams NDSU has beaten, then yes, they should. Knowing that, I'm not sure how you can objectively say that NDSU has a better resume. 

USD          NDSU 
@WIU  =  @YSU
YSU     >  @EWU
@BGU >  MSU
@UND >  @ISU
ISU      >  RMU
Drake  >  MVSU

 

Again, you're comparing bad teams:

Here are the comparisons that matter:

YSU (road) > YSU (home win)

EWU (road) ~ WIU (road)

 

[jdub27]

Just now, Gothmog said:

Again, you're comparing bad teams:

Here are the comparisons that matter:

YSU (road) > YSU (home win)

EWU (road) ~ WIU (road)

So in order to make your point, you have to put USD's second best win against NDSU's top win and then claim that a ~12 point difference is actually a wash. No wonder you don't have a clue.

[Gothmog]

6 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

Considering the "bad" teams they have beaten aren't as bad as the "bad" teams NDSU has beaten, then yes, they should. Knowing that, I'm not sure how you can objectively say that NDSU has a better resume. 

This adjusts for where the game was. The only comparison NDSU wins is the first one by half a point. 

USD          NDSU 
@WIU  =  @YSU  (YSU by 0.5)
YSU     >  @EWU (YSU by 10.2)
@BGU >  MSU    (BGU by 21.9)
@UND >  @ISU   (UND by 11.2)
ISU      >  RMU    (ISU by 7.4)
Drake  >  MVSU  (Drake by 16.8)

 

Switch the four poor teams on the two team's schedules around and both teams would still be 6-0. That's the point.

[jdub27]

Just now, Gothmog said:

Switch the four poor teams on the two team's schedules around and both teams would still be 6-0. That's the point.

You are probably right on the record and you would finally be right on the resume part as well. That's the point.

[Gothmog]

2 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

So in order to make your point, you have to put USD's second best win against NDSU's top win and then claim that a ~12 point difference is actually a wash. No wonder you don't have a clue.

Just stop it. You're trying to say that beating one bad team is better than beating another bad team. In the real world that's just not true. IMO, that's a principal weakness of computer rankings.

[UNDBIZ]

Bowling Green would beat ndsu.

 

[jdub27]

Just now, Gothmog said:

Just stop it. You're trying to say that beating one bad team is better than beating another bad. In the real world that's just not true. IMO, that's a principal weakness of computer rankings.

Better than your "eye test". 

A resume is a complete body of work. USD's is better than NDSU's to date. There are different levels of "bad teams". Thinking that Bowling Green is near the same level as Missouri State (both team's 3rd best win) is ridiculous. UND blew out Missouri State. Hell, UND would be 4-2 with NDSU's schedule and they are in the bottom half of USD's SOS.