Non-UND FCS Thread

[Gothmog]

13 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

Ah, now I get how you're going to get around it.  

I brought up Sagarin because it's an objective measure of SOS, which shows USD with the same record as NDSU but a harder schedule. You are the one who brought individual rankings into it, which I then showed that rankings that only go off of this season have USD as above NDSU.  Remember, you're the one who made the claim that NDSU has a better resume but I've yet to see an objective measure that proves that.....

 

No, if Sagarin is an objective measure of SOS, then it is an objective measure of a team's "resume." Again, you're misusing Sagarin. It can't mean something when comparing two team's opponents but mean nothing when comparing those teams directly.

 

[jdub27]

10 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

No, if Sagarin is an objective measure of SOS, then it is an objective measure of a team's "resume." Again, you're misusing Sagarin. It can't mean something when comparing two team's opponents but mean nothing when comparing those teams directly.

You're completely ignoring some other factors, including bias from previous seasons. By your "eye test" you claim NDSU has better wins but there are no objective numbers that bear that out. I also showed where it places USD ahead of NDSU using this season's results only, so how do you explain that outside of leaning on human polls and voters who slot vote and won't move NDSU down unless they lose.....?

[Gothmog]

5 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

You're completely ignoring some other factors, including bias from previous seasons. By your "eye test" you claim NDSU has better wins. Objective numbers don't bear that out.  I also showed where it places USD ahead of NDSU using this season's results only, which takes into account their resume from this season, so how do you explain that.....?

I've already explained that.  USD gets more credit for beating the poor teams on its schedule than does NDSU. That was my point in the first place.

 

[Gothmog]

23 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

You're completely ignoring some other factors, including bias from previous seasons. By your "eye test" you claim NDSU has better wins but there are no objective numbers that bear that out. I also showed where it places USD ahead of NDSU using this season's results only, so how do you explain that outside of leaning on human polls and voters who slot vote and won't move NDSU down unless they lose.....?

And BTW - have you done the same "this year" comparison for every one of USD and NDSU's opponents and recalculated USD and NDSU's SOS based on that?. If not, at  you're back at square one.

[Gothmog]

19 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

You're completely ignoring some other factors, including bias from previous seasons. By your "eye test" you claim NDSU has better wins but there are no objective numbers that bear that out. I also showed where it places USD ahead of NDSU using this season's results only, so how do you explain that outside of leaning on human polls and voters who slot vote and won't move NDSU down unless they lose.....?

Interesting that you would say that I'm ignoring other factors when you haven't mentioned any factors other than Sagarin (until this post of course).

 

 

[jdub27]

13 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

I've already explained that.  USD gets more credit for beating the poor teams on its schedule than does NDSU. That was my point in the first place.

They get more credit for beating poor teams even though they have a harder schedule? Seriously, step back and be objective. USD has played a harder schedule and to this point has a better resume. It's OK to admit. 

10 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

And BTW - have you done the same "this year" comparison for every one of USD and NDSU's opponents. If not, you're back at square one.

This year only SOS:
USD - #160 (49.93)
NDSU - #230 (36.66)

USD's schedule is even harder when looking at that.
Winning at YSU and WIU is basically a wash. Beating YSU is still better than winning at EWU. Beating Bowling Green is still significantly better than Missouri State. Advantage USD. 

I'm not saying that USD is going to beat NDSU. The point was made that they have a better resume to date and you took exception with it based on nothing but your eye test.

[Gothmog]

6 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

They get more credit for beating poor teams even though they have a harder schedule? Seriously, step back and be objective. USD has played a harder schedule and to this point has a better resume. It's OK to admit. 

This year only SOS:
USD - #160 (49.93)
NDSU - #230 (36.66)

USD's schedule is even harder when looking at that.
Winning at YSU and WIU is basically a wash. Beating YSU is still better than winning at EWU. Beating Bowling Green is still significantly better than Missouri State.

That just rehashes the same thing I objected to in the first place. USD gets more credit for beating bad teams than does NDSU.

[Siouxphan27]

3 hours ago, moser53 said:

Don't underestimate Doug Bergum. If NDSU being like an Oklahoma State is his dream-goal in his lifetime what will we see at SU that will give clues. 10 thousand  more students  1 billion endowment. Underestimate the will in Fargo not me.

 

[jdub27]

15 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

That just rehashes the same thing I objected to in the first place. USD get more credit for beating bad teams than does NDSU.

Considering the "bad" teams they have beaten aren't as bad as the "bad" teams NDSU has beaten, then yes, they should. Knowing that, I'm not sure how you can objectively say that NDSU has a better resume. 

This adjusts for where the game was. The only comparison NDSU wins is the first one by half a point. 

USD          NDSU 
@WIU  =  @YSU  (YSU by 0.5)
YSU     >  @EWU (YSU by 10.2)
@BGU >  MSU    (BGU by 21.9)
@UND >  @ISU   (UND by 11.2)
ISU      >  RMU    (ISU by 7.4)
Drake  >  MVSU  (Drake by 16.8)

 

[Gothmog]

Just now, jdub27 said:

Considering the "bad" teams they have beaten aren't as bad as the "bad" teams NDSU has beaten, then yes, they should. Knowing that, I'm not sure how you can objectively say that NDSU has a better resume. 

USD          NDSU 
@WIU  =  @YSU
YSU     >  @EWU
@BGU >  MSU
@UND >  @ISU
ISU      >  RMU
Drake  >  MVSU

 

Again, you're comparing bad teams:

Here are the comparisons that matter:

YSU (road) > YSU (home win)

EWU (road) ~ WIU (road)

 

[jdub27]

Just now, Gothmog said:

Again, you're comparing bad teams:

Here are the comparisons that matter:

YSU (road) > YSU (home win)

EWU (road) ~ WIU (road)

So in order to make your point, you have to put USD's second best win against NDSU's top win and then claim that a ~12 point difference is actually a wash. No wonder you don't have a clue.

[Gothmog]

6 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

Considering the "bad" teams they have beaten aren't as bad as the "bad" teams NDSU has beaten, then yes, they should. Knowing that, I'm not sure how you can objectively say that NDSU has a better resume. 

This adjusts for where the game was. The only comparison NDSU wins is the first one by half a point. 

USD          NDSU 
@WIU  =  @YSU  (YSU by 0.5)
YSU     >  @EWU (YSU by 10.2)
@BGU >  MSU    (BGU by 21.9)
@UND >  @ISU   (UND by 11.2)
ISU      >  RMU    (ISU by 7.4)
Drake  >  MVSU  (Drake by 16.8)

 

Switch the four poor teams on the two team's schedules around and both teams would still be 6-0. That's the point.

[jdub27]

Just now, Gothmog said:

Switch the four poor teams on the two team's schedules around and both teams would still be 6-0. That's the point.

You are probably right on the record and you would finally be right on the resume part as well. That's the point.

[Gothmog]

2 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

So in order to make your point, you have to put USD's second best win against NDSU's top win and then claim that a ~12 point difference is actually a wash. No wonder you don't have a clue.

Just stop it. You're trying to say that beating one bad team is better than beating another bad team. In the real world that's just not true. IMO, that's a principal weakness of computer rankings.

[UNDBIZ]

Bowling Green would beat ndsu.

 

[jdub27]

Just now, Gothmog said:

Just stop it. You're trying to say that beating one bad team is better than beating another bad. In the real world that's just not true. IMO, that's a principal weakness of computer rankings.

Better than your "eye test". 

A resume is a complete body of work. USD's is better than NDSU's to date. There are different levels of "bad teams". Thinking that Bowling Green is near the same level as Missouri State (both team's 3rd best win) is ridiculous. UND blew out Missouri State. Hell, UND would be 4-2 with NDSU's schedule and they are in the bottom half of USD's SOS.

[sioux rube]

The obsession on both sides has reached a new level.

[Gothmog]

13 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

Better than your "eye test". 

A resume is a complete body of work. USD's is better than NDSU's to date. There are different levels of "bad teams". Thinking that Bowling Green is near the same level as Missouri State (both team's 3rd best win) is ridiculous. UND blew out Missouri State. Hell, UND would be 4-2 with NDSU's schedule and they are in the bottom half of USD's SOS.

I don't agree. Back to my original point. Wins over two current top ten FCS teams on the road trumps anything USD has done. Stop with the Sagarin nonsense.

[Sioux94]

8 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

I don't agree. Back to my original point. Wins over two current top ten FCS teams on the road trumps anything USD has done. Stop with the Sagarin nonsense.

I haven't read all of the comments on here so maybe somebody already mentioned it.  How about the fact that EWU had a new staff and many new players at the beginning of the year, they only scored 10 points on Texas Tech.  I thought they would score 30 on them and probably normally would have, but it took them a couple of games to figure things out with a new offensive coordinator etc..  You guys probably would have still won but I think the game would be a little closer if you were playing this weekend than it was the 2nd week of the season.  Now since you are an NDSU troll I know you won't even say there is at all a hint of truth in that.  

[jdub27]

15 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

I don't agree. Back to my original point. Wins over two current top ten FCS teams on the road trumps anything USD has done. Stop with the Sagarin nonsense.

Yes, because the polls your citing have shown to be really accurate and very flexible to move off their initial rankings. 

The one that is typically the most accurate, AGS, has WIU ahead of EWU (actually WIU, EWU, YSU at 7,8,9).

It's also convenient how you keep including best two wins instead of three, which allows you to exclude USD's FBS win. Understandable since that would require you to add in NDSU's third best win, which is Missouri State and that doesn't even come close to helping your case.

[Gothmog]

19 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

Yes, because the polls your citing have shown to be really accurate and very flexible to move off their initial rankings. 

The one that is typically the most accurate, AGS, has WIU ahead of EWU (actually WIU, EWU, YSU at 7,8,9).

It's also convenient how you keep including best two wins instead of three, which allows you to exclude USD's FBS win. Understandable since that would require you to add in NDSU's third best win, which is Missouri State and that doesn't even come close to helping your case.

OK, let's restate that: NDSU's 2 best wins trump USD's three best wins. Wins can not be summed in that way. Two, or even one, quality win can easily trump 3. 

[homer]

2 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

OK, let's restate that: NDSU's 2 best wins trump USD's three best wins. Wins can not be summed in that way. Two, or even one, quality win can easily trump 3. 

In the eyes of the committee it's actually all about quality losses

[Nodak78]

6 minutes ago, Gothmog said:

OK, let's restate that: NDSU's 2 best wins trump USD's three best wins. Wins can not be summed in that way. Two, or even one, quality win can easily trump 3. 

Please quit digging a hole.  The hole is deep enough,  jump in and we will gladly kick dirt in the hole to cover up your sorry $$$$. 

[darell1976]

6 hours ago, moser53 said:

Don't underestimate Doug Bergum. If NDSU being like an Oklahoma State is his dream-goal in his lifetime what will we see at SU that will give clues. 10 thousand  more students  1 billion endowment. Underestimate the will in Fargo not me.

Burgum is raking in the money with the tax breaks at the expense of the Fargo homeowners, but if he thinks his downtown metropolis of high rise buildings are going to carry NDSU into FBS status (namely a huge dome, or stadium) he is up for a ride awakining. I think NDSU will lean on Carson Wentz than Doug Burgum for money.

[jdub27]

2 hours ago, Gothmog said:

OK, let's restate that: NDSU's 2 best wins trump USD's three best wins. Wins can not be summed in that way. Two, or even one, quality win can easily trump 3. 

No they don't and you have zero objective rankings to show NDSU having a better resume. Two or one isn't a resume, they are data points on a body of work. But it's OK, NDSU's resume has already started to get better now that they are done playing teams in the bottom 20% of Division 1 in 4 of their first 5 games. Maybe they will even leapfrog USD in individual Sagarin rankings for the season so next time you bring it up, you can use it as a winning argument instead of a losing one.