Twins ?

[jdub27]

12 minutes ago, 82SiouxGuy said:

A number 1 starter contract is $20-25 million per year for at least 5 years. The Twins have been giving out $12-13 million per year for 3-5 years.

Very true. Unfortunately they keep hoping those guys will turn into 2nd or 3rd starters and aren't having a high success rate on that theory. You can win that way but you can't miss as often as they have. I can't ever see the Twins giving out a true #1 starter contract to a free agent. The last two true #1 starters they Twins had were Santana (Rule 5 draft) and briefly Liriano (trade). So its either trades or drafts were they will likely have to find their next one.

[siouxkid12]

2 hours ago, jdub27 said:

Tough to fully blame Smith on the Santana trade considering that Ryan had basically punted on making an inevitable decisions while he was in control. The Twins weren't going to give him the contract that was coming (nor should they have). While he made some bad moves, I'd also argue Smith made some pretty good moves as well: Pavano, Thome, Orlando Hudson. This article is a pretty good breakdown of his tenure and it should probably be noted that he learned under Terry Ryan and was pretty much handpicked.

In the end, you can look at a ton of decisions made any GM and it will be a mixed bag and with a lot of it coming down to luck. That being said, Smith wasn't the answer nor was Terry Ryan the second go around and it was time for him to go. The Twins need completely new blood in their front office.

How is it tot hard to fully blame Smith on the Santana deal? He took the FORTH best option of players for him. To trade an ACE in any rotation and not get back a proven every day MLB star is sad. Making "pretty good" moves does not cut it when you are the GM of a MLB team, you need to make great moves! Thome and Pavano were "ok" moves but its not like there were tons of teams lining up for their services either. Again, don't even get me started on the flipping Capps for Ramos deal! Just think where the Twins would be if they had Ramos after that P(*&Y Mauer went down with another hangnail injury.

 Yes, Bill may have been the hand picked predecessor to Terry Ryan but there in lies the problem with the Twins, promoting people that shouldn't be promoted. At the end of the day Terry Ryan wasn't the answer anymore and they need to start over. They have the offensive power to compete day in and day out against the best teams but desperately need help pitching. 

[jdub27]

2 minutes ago, siouxkid12 said:

How is it tot hard to fully blame Smith on the Santana deal? He took the FORTH best option of players for him. To trade an ACE in any rotation and not get back a proven every day MLB star is sad. Making "pretty good" moves does not cut it when you are the GM of a MLB team, you need to make great moves! Thome and Pavano were "ok" moves but its not like there were tons of teams lining up for their services either. Again, don't even get me started on the flipping Capps for Ramos deal! Just think where the Twins would be if they had Ramos after that P(*&Y Mauer went down with another hangnail injury.

 Yes, Bill may have been the hand picked predecessor to Terry Ryan but there in lies the problem with the Twins, promoting people that shouldn't be promoted. At the end of the day Terry Ryan wasn't the answer anymore and they need to start over. They have the offensive power to compete day in and day out against the best teams but desperately need help pitching. 

Because Terry Ryan could have done it much sooner and didn't, instead of leaving it to a brand new GM to handle, he punted on taking the action while he was in charge. Even then he stay was still on as an advisor, so he had input. As for the it being the fourth best option, that is all speculation on what exactly the other offers were. I'm not saying Smith isn't culpable in all of it, he is. But Terry Ryan has his fingerprints all over it as well. While it ended up not working out, it could have been worse, Smith could have actually resigned him instead of trading him.

As for Ramos/Capps. It wasn't a great deal but it was a "win now" move instead of long-term outlooks. The 8th and 9th innings would have been on lock-down, but that doesn't matter when the offense can't score against the Yankees. Sometimes those gambles pay off, sometimes they don't. It also shows GM's (not Twins specific) weird obsession with the need for a "proven closer".

The dig on Mauer is pretty weak as well. 2011 was complications and issues from offseason knee surgery. It is what it is. If you're taking digs at him now for playing first instead of catching because he has had multiple brain injuries, than I'm not sure how to even argue how wrong that is.

Your last point we can fully agree on. Smith probably shouldn't have been hired (again, partially on TR for mentoring and recommending) and TR shouldn't have had a second stint, the game has passed him by as a GM. They need new blood in the front office.

[siouxkid12]

9 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

Because Terry Ryan could have done it much sooner and didn't, instead of leaving it to a brand new GM to handle, he punted on taking the action while he was in charge. Even then he stay was still on as an advisor, so he had input. As for the it being the fourth best option, that is all speculation on what exactly the other offers were. I'm not saying Smith isn't culpable in all of it, he is. But Terry Ryan has his fingerprints all over it as well. While it ended up not working out, it could have been worse, Smith could have actually resigned him instead of trading him.

As for Ramos/Capps. It wasn't a great deal but it was a "win now" move instead of long-term outlooks. The 8th and 9th innings would have been on lock-down, but that doesn't matter when the offense can't score against the Yankees. Sometimes those gambles pay off, sometimes they don't. It also shows GM's (not Twins specific) weird obsession with the need for a "proven closer".

The dig on Mauer is pretty weak as well. 2011 was complications and issues from offseason knee surgery. It is what it is. If you're taking digs at him now for playing first instead of catching because he has had multiple brain injuries, than I'm not sure how to even argue how wrong that is.

Your last point we can fully agree on. Smith probably shouldn't have been hired (again, partially on TR for mentoring and recommending) and TR shouldn't have had a second stint, the game has passed him by as a GM. They need new blood in the front office.

The Mauer dig has nothing to do with his concussions. It's with him being in and out of the lineup the past couple season for various injuries that most people have probably played through before. He is getting paid to be the cornerstone of a franchise but he is nothing more than an average player at best. For the amount he is getting paid he should be hitting 20+ HR and driving in 90+ RBI's a year, but no we are stuck with a sub-par 1st basemen/DH because that's all he can do.  

Ramos/Capps, Win NOW? Are you kidding me? Do you think the Twins actually had a team that could've competed with any of those other playoff teams that season? He mortgaged the team on a NON-All-Star player and before you tell me Capps was an All-Star, he was an All-Star on a crappy team that needed a representative for the All-Star game. That doesn't make you an All-Star, it makes you the best player on a crappy team.

Let's trade Gomez for JJ Hardy and then get rid of him for Nishioka (didn't think I would forget about him) and watch Hardy hit 30 HR the following year (and 20+ the following two years).

Like I said before, Terry Ryan's time has passed but he had a HUGE hole to dig out of once Smith was reassigned and I think a lot of his moves were based off of desperation. I would like to have seen the Twins gone with someone else after Smith was done because I just don't think Terry's heart was ever fully in it.

[jdub27]

14 minutes ago, siouxkid12 said:

The Mauer dig has nothing to do with his concussions. It's with him being in and out of the lineup the past couple season for various injuries that most people have probably played through before. He is getting paid to be the cornerstone of a franchise but he is nothing more than an average player at best. For the amount he is getting paid he should be hitting 20+ HR and driving in 90+ RBI's a year, but no we are stuck with a sub-par 1st basemen/DH because that's all he can do.  

Ramos/Capps, Win NOW? Are you kidding me? Do you think the Twins actually had a team that could've competed with any of those other playoff teams that season? He mortgaged the team on a NON-All-Star player and before you tell me Capps was an All-Star, he was an All-Star on a crappy team that needed a representative for the All-Star game. That doesn't make you an All-Star, it makes you the best player on a crappy team.

Let's trade Gomez for JJ Hardy and then get rid of him for Nishioka (didn't think I would forget about him) and watch Hardy hit 30 HR the following year (and 20+ the following two years).

Like I said before, Terry Ryan's time has passed but he had a HUGE hole to dig out of once Smith was reassigned and I think a lot of his moves were based off of desperation. I would like to have seen the Twins gone with someone else after Smith was done because I just don't think Terry's heart was ever fully in it.

Mauer is the second or third best 1st baseman in the AL this season (top 10 in MLB). His production obviously isn't what it was, but again, you can do a pre and post concussion comparison and see the drop off. He is far from sub-par though.

I didn't say it was a good move (especially in hindsight, not that I agreed with it at the time), I said it was done to win at the time. While it ended up being more of an aberration than anything, Capps had a pretty damn good year in 2010.

Nishioka was a flop, no getting arguing that and trading Hardy wasn't the right move but Hardy wasn't exactly durable, only playing in 101 games and obviously no one could have predicted a career year after leaving Minnesota, which is why the return for him wasn't all that great. That resurgence obviously makes the move look much worse than it was at the time

I wasn't excited when Smith was hired and he made more than his share of bad moves. I think the Twins doubled down on it by bringing Ryan back but he probably though he could fix things since he was still on as an advisor and wasn't out of the loop on a lot of the moves. Regardless, let's hope for new blood and someone that has a little bit of an understanding of analytics because the Twins are embarrassingly far behind in some scouting areas.

[siouxkid12]

17 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

Mauer is the second or third best 1st baseman in the AL this season (top 10 in MLB). His production obviously isn't what it was, but again, you can do a pre and post concussion comparison and see the drop off. He is far from sub-par though.

I didn't say it was a good move (especially in hindsight, not that I agreed with it at the time), I said it was done to win at the time. While it ended up being more of an aberration than anything, Capps had a pretty damn good year in 2010.

Nishioka was a flop, no getting arguing that and trading Hardy wasn't the right move but Hardy wasn't exactly durable, only playing in 101 games and obviously no one could have predicted a career year after leaving Minnesota, which is why the return for him wasn't all that great. That resurgence obviously makes the move look much worse than it was at the time

I wasn't excited when Smith was hired and he made more than his share of bad moves. I think the Twins doubled down on it by bringing Ryan back but he probably though he could fix things since he was still on as an advisor and wasn't out of the loop on a lot of the moves. Regardless, let's hope for new blood and someone that has a little bit of an understanding of analytics because the Twins are embarrassingly far behind in some scouting areas.

Not sure where you think Mauer is the 2nd or 3rd best 1st baseman in the AL but I can name a handful of other players who are doing a lot better then Mauer. If you like high batting averages and a lot of singles for your 1st baseman/DH, than ya, Mauer is a top 3 1st baseman.

If you look at Mauer's history, you can see that his "power numbers" never really dropped off except after his MVP season in 09. The only thing that has taken a huge dive is his BA. He has never been known as a power hitter or an RBI hitter and when you play 1B/DH in the AL you better be hitting that 20+HR/90+ RBI.

[jdub27]

10 minutes ago, siouxkid12 said:

Not sure where you think Mauer is the 2nd or 3rd best 1st baseman in the AL but I can name a handful of other players who are doing a lot better then Mauer. If you like high batting averages and a lot of singles for your 1st baseman/DH, than ya, Mauer is a top 3 1st baseman.

If you look at Mauer's history, you can see that his "power numbers" never really dropped off except after his MVP season in 09. The only thing that has taken a huge dive is his BA. He has never been known as a power hitter or an RBI hitter and when you play 1B/DH in the AL you better be hitting that 20+HR/90+ RBI.

Wins Above Replacement. I'd add that the AL 1st baseman production isn't what it was 5-10 years ago, but it still is what it is. The one year he hit 28 HR's was obviously an outlier and RBI's are a misguided stat. With runners in scoring position, Mauer's career numbers are .330/.457/.472, which is better than his overall career numbers of .311/.393/.448.

[SWSiouxMN]

Last homegrown ace for the Twins: Brad Radke... let that sink in. Berrios needs to be that guy. Gibby needs to finally put in together to be that #2-3 guy in the rotation. 

Whoever the GM is, revamping the entire pitching staff is Priority #1

 

[siouxkid12]

12 hours ago, SWSiouxMN said:

Last homegrown ace for the Twins: Brad Radke... let that sink in. Berrios needs to be that guy. Gibby needs to finally put in together to be that #2-3 guy in the rotation. 

Whoever the GM is, revamping the entire pitching staff is Priority #1

 

Sad thing is, Brad Radke was no dominant ACE. He was a solid 3-4 starter who would give you 200+ inning each year. The Twins need Berrios to be better than that!

 

15 hours ago, jdub27 said:

Wins Above Replacement. I'd add that the AL 1st baseman production isn't what it was 5-10 years ago, but it still is what it is. The one year he hit 28 HR's was obviously an outlier and RBI's are a misguided stat. With runners in scoring position, Mauer's career numbers are .330/.457/.472, which is better than his overall career numbers of .311/.393/.448.

That's great that he has career number of .330/.457/..472 but when you avg only 91 R/83 RBI/13 HR throughout your 13 year MLB career (62 R/7 HR/ 54 RBI avg since he took over at 1B/DH), that doesn't put you in the top 3 or 5 of best 1B/DH. That actually puts you way below avg and when you are getting paid $23mm a year, you are definitely not performing up to standards. 

[jdub27]

48 minutes ago, siouxkid12 said:

That's great that he has career number of .330/.457/..472 but when you avg only 91 R/83 RBI/13 HR throughout your 13 year MLB career (62 R/7 HR/ 54 RBI avg since he took over at 1B/DH), that doesn't put you in the top 3 or 5 of best 1B/DH. That actually puts you way below avg and when you are getting paid $23mm a year, you are definitely not performing up to standards. 

Outside of hitting home runs (which isn't his game), Mauer can't control people getting on base in front of him so he can get RBI's or hitting him in when he's on base to score runs. Runs and RBI's are a terrible stat to measure an individual hitter by, especially when his already very good numbers get even better with RISP.

As for his salary, no he probably isn't living up to the dollar amount he's being paid but it probably balances out the years that he was significantly underpaid. He has been "worth" $287 million in his career and he's been paid $177 million. Obviously his move from catcher to 1st base lessens his overall value going forward but it doesn't change where he ranks comparatively in value. It will be almost impossible to live up to the standards placed on him but it isn't like that is what is hamstringing the Twins. They've had millions in unspent payroll for years. Again, hopefully some new blood will help solve the issue.

[siouxkid12]

49 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

Outside of hitting home runs (which isn't his game), Mauer can't control people getting on base in front of him so he can get RBI's or hitting him in when he's on base to score runs. Runs and RBI's are a terrible stat to measure an individual hitter by, especially when his already very good numbers get even better with RISP.

As for his salary, no he probably isn't living up to the dollar amount he's being paid but it probably balances out the years that he was significantly underpaid. He has been "worth" $287 million in his career and he's been paid $177 million. Obviously his move from catcher to 1st base lessens his overall value going forward but it doesn't change where he ranks comparatively in value. It will be almost impossible to live up to the standards placed on him but it isn't like that is what is hamstringing the Twins. They've had millions in unspent payroll for years. Again, hopefully some new blood will help solve the issue.

What I am saying is, yes he may hit .330 but what good does .330 do when you hit for singles and barely get anyone home? If you are going to hang your whole argument based off of how high his numbers are with RISP, then yes, runs scored and RBI's are a great stat to compare. Just because you hit .330 with RISP does not mean they score, he is just moving runners over. 

I somewhat agree that Mauer isn't the one hamstringing the Twins. Where I disagree is, I think there are other players that are not playing in positions they should be due to him taking up a spot. The Twins won't/can't get rid of him either, so they are stuck with an avg 1B/DH for the next 2 years.

You don't get paid on what you have done in the past, you get paid on what you are doing now and he isn't worth $23mm, that's how sports work.

[siouxkid12]

At the end of the day we have different views on the Twins and Joe Mauer but I would at least like to think we could have a beer and discuss it even more

[82SiouxGuy]

10 hours ago, siouxkid12 said:

You don't get paid on what you have done in the past, you get paid on what you are doing now and he isn't worth $23mm, that's how sports work.

Actually, most professional athletes, especially baseball players, ARE paid based on what they did in the past rather than what they are doing now. Free agents get big contracts when they are 30 or 32 or 35 based on what they did in the past. They are rarely worth anything close to the annual contract value during the last 2 or 3 years of the contract. And the same players make a fraction of what they are worth during their first 5 or 6 years in the majors unless they sign an extended contract that takes away at least a couple of free agent years. Has Alex Rodriguez been worth $27.5 million the past few years? Has Josh Hamilton been worth his contract? CC Sabathia? Ryan Howard? Is David Price going to be worth the contract he signed last year when his ERA has gone up by 2 runs this year already? Then there are guys like Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, and Justin Verlander getting more than $20 million per year and producing much less than that for multiple years.

[SWSiouxMN]

13 hours ago, siouxkid12 said:

Sad thing is, Brad Radke was no dominant ACE. He was a solid 3-4 starter who would give you 200+ inning each year. The Twins need Berrios to be better than that!

 

Guess I should have clarified that Berrios needs to become the next homegrown Ace. I sure hope he can do much better than "Bombs Away" Brad!

[siouxkid12]

12 hours ago, 82SiouxGuy said:

Actually, most professional athletes, especially baseball players, ARE paid based on what they did in the past rather than what they are doing now. Free agents get big contracts when they are 30 or 32 or 35 based on what they did in the past. They are rarely worth anything close to the annual contract value during the last 2 or 3 years of the contract. And the same players make a fraction of what they are worth during their first 5 or 6 years in the majors unless they sign an extended contract that takes away at least a couple of free agent years. Has Alex Rodriguez been worth $27.5 million the past few years? Has Josh Hamilton been worth his contract? CC Sabathia? Ryan Howard? Is David Price going to be worth the contract he signed last year when his ERA has gone up by 2 runs this year already? Then there are guys like Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, and Justin Verlander getting more than $20 million per year and producing much less than that for multiple years.

My comment was in reference to someone saying that he was vastly underpaid before he got his big deal. To me teams don't care if you were underpaid and will not make it up down the road (i.e. Miami Heat/Dwayne Wade). At the time Mauer signed his deal was worth every bit of $23mm because he was the best catcher in the game but now that he has moved to 1B/DH, he isn't worth that amount of money for the productivity you get from him. His $23mm a year salary was not based off of just his hitting, it was based off of how important he was behind the plate.

 

 A-Roid, Hamilton, Pujols, Sabathia, Howard, Fielder and quiet possibly Bryce Harper were worth every bit of money when they signed their deals

[siouxkid12]

12 hours ago, SWSiouxMN said:

Guess I should have clarified that Berrios needs to become the next homegrown Ace. I sure hope he can do much better than "Bombs Away" Brad!

Haha, yes Brad did give up A LOT of runs but at least with him, you knew you were going to get 7/8 innings of solid pitching. You just better make sure you have him more than 5 runs of support.

[sioux rube]

Aaron GleemanVerified account
‏@AaronGleeman
No one in the history of baseball has ever totaled more homers (37) and more walks (96) than Miguel Sano through 162 career games.

[Blackheart]

1 hour ago, sioux rube said:

Aaron GleemanVerified account
‏@AaronGleeman
No one in the history of baseball has ever totaled more homers (37) and more walks (96) than Miguel Sano through 162 career games.

how about strikeouts?  And who the f*ck is Aaron Gleeman?

[sioux rube]

7 hours ago, Blackheart said:

how about strikeouts?  And who the f*ck is Aaron Gleeman?

After Buxton gets in 162 career games I'm sure he will lead in the K category. 

[sioux rube]

Twins need to go 14-23 the rest of the way to avoid 100 losses. Unless they come back tonight it will go to 14-22. The Run for a Hun is alive and well unfortunately.

[The Sicatoka]

14 hours ago, sioux rube said:

The Run for a Hun ... 

Journey to the century mark. 

[sioux rube]

Once again the Twins find a new way to lose. up 5-0 and lose 8-7. Kepler with a huge mistake in the outfield that resulted in the Jays to score 2 and win it. 9 losses in a row and now need to go 14-19 to avoid the 100 loss season.

[SWSiouxMN]

Blow the whole thing up.  Molly, Burno, Neil, everyone needs to go and start it from square one.  New GM, new manager, new everything.

They need to make a massive move because if they dont, they will fall further behind in the Twin Cities sports scene, especially with that new toy coming in at TCF starting in the spring of 2017.  If the T-Wolves can make a big splash (and I can make an argument for them being worse run that the Twins) why can't the Twins?

[sioux rube]

Twins just broke a franchise record. Now have allowed 8 or more runs in 6 consecutive games. Also on a 10 game losing streak. Need to go 14-18 to avoid the century mark in losses. It's happening. 

[siouxforcefans]

So painful to watch at this point.  They are scoring enough runs to win almost every game, if they are any other team in MLB, but lose them all...  Scored 3, 4, 5, 8, 7, and 6 runs over the last 6 games.  Most teams win 3 - 5 of those 6 with that kind of run support.