Grand Forks Economy

[Cratter]

3 hours ago, jdub27 said:

Any developer who sees 80% occupancy and thinks one or two more need buildings need to be built is going to go broke real fast.

Lol..ok here a more expanded answer...in this scenario its a new building, its 80% full after only being open x amount of time.....which gives them an "estimated capacity fill rate"...they dont start planning the next one at 100% full. And in this virtual scenario, at 80% gives them enough green light data...

Of course a lot of factors into "fill rate."  And "80%" in a vacuum means squat.

"We kept prices high earlier because we figured we could always lower them later to fill it."

[jdub27]

20 minutes ago, Cratter said:

Lol..ok here a more expanded answer...in this scenario its a new building, its 80% full after only being open x amount of time.....which gives them an "estimated capacity fill rate"...they dont start planning the next one at 100% full. And in this virtual scenario, at 80% gives them enough green light data...

Of course a lot of factors into "fill rate."  And "80%" in a vacuum means squat.

"We kept prices high earlier because we figured we could always lower them later to fill it."

If the building isn't significantly leased up prior to opening and then at above a break-even rate (which is almost always quite a bit higher than 80%) the first few months its open, they are in a lot of trouble.

If you're discounting leases early in the process, also a huge red flag. Existing tenants aren't a big fan of seeing that...
Not saying they don't offer some early-lease up specials (first and last month free, etc.) but what you're describing isn't how the process works at all.

 

[Cratter]

I love this thread. 

Hop in the "way back machine"

To see:

"Grand Forks very slow growth.....we dont need to build so many new apartments."

*digs deep*

"Holy crap. Grand Forks has a very low vacancy rate and apartments growth hasnt been keeping up with demand; we need to built a lot more!"

[Cratter]

22 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

If the building isn't significantly leased up prior to opening and then at above a break-even rate (which is almost always quite a bit higher than 80%) the first few months its open, they are in a lot of trouble.

If you're discounting leases early in the process, also a huge red flag. Existing tenants aren't a big fan of seeing that...
Not saying they don't offer some early-lease up specials (first and last month free, etc.) but what you're describing isn't how the process works at all.

 

Ok good to know. We can use this data to answer Blackhearts question then,....the original point:

it'll likely be 90% to 100% full before it opens or right afterwards.

[Blackheart]

14 hours ago, Cratter said:

Yeah also color me shocked a golf simulator owner is against a year round "Top Golf style."

Which nearly every Grand Forks resident would love to have.

Catch me up on this one...the guy that runs the golf simulator wasn't thrilled that the city was offering tax breaks to his potential competition?

[jdub27]

30 minutes ago, Blackheart said:

Catch me up on this one...the guy that runs the golf simulator wasn't thrilled that the city was offering tax breaks to his potential competition?

If you consider a golf simulator put in as an amenity in an apartment building, yes.

[Cratter]

2 hours ago, Blackheart said:

Catch me up on this one...the guy that runs the golf simulator wasn't thrilled that the city was offering tax breaks to his potential competition?

The poker table buy in is $10 million minimum. 

The more you invest the bigger discount/perks you get. 

This guy gets comped a soda:

 

 

This guy gets comped a penthouse suite:

 

[Blackheart]

1 minute ago, jdub27 said:

If you consider a golf simulator put in as an amenity in an apartment building, yes.

The new developments will be using TIF funds then?  If so, is there any concern that the amenities provided (such as a golf simulator) will unfairly impact local business(es)?  Sorry if I'm slow on this...

[Cratter]

35 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

If you consider a golf simulator put in as an amenity in an apartment building, yes.

Which begs the "question,"

Megan Ashley Pierce (MAP Fitness)

Really needs to step up her city council game.

[jdub27]

35 minutes ago, Blackheart said:

The new developments will be using TIF funds then?  If so, is there any concern that the amenities provided (such as a golf simulator) will unfairly impact local business(es)?  Sorry if I'm slow on this...

From what I understand, they are applying for a TIF (which is a tax deferment, not actual cash).

 

7 minutes ago, Cratter said:

Which begs the "question,"

Megan Ashley Pierce (MAP Fitness)

Really needs to step up her city council game.

I've heard similar arguments as it relates to the city owned Choice Health and Fitness.

[Blackheart]

32 minutes ago, Cratter said:

The poker table buy in is $10 million minimum. 

The more you invest the bigger discount you get. 

This guy gets comped a soda:

 

 

This guy gets comped a penthouse suite:

 

I get the risk/reward portion of this; the more you put in the more you stand to gain. (or lose)  But if I'm the guy getting comped a soda, I sure don't want to see my property tax increase for additional infrastructure to support Mr Penthouse Suite's fabulous new business.  Maybe I'm just mad because I would have loved to have a 20 year tax break for my business.

[Blackheart]

1 minute ago, jdub27 said:

From what I understand, they are applying for a TIF (which is a tax deferment, not actual cash).

Thanks for the clarification.

[Blackheart]

JDub27 and Cratter, why don't you guys just come over to my house and explain all this to me.  The first couple rounds are on me.

[Cratter]

3 minutes ago, Blackheart said:

I sure don't want to see my property tax increase for additional infrastructure to support Mr Penthouse Suite's fabulous new business. 

 

[Cratter]

"Cratter can you play the other side?"

Sure.

Property tax? Where's that money go? Biggest portion: public schools.

Which is a valid concern and why the schools. Said "no way jose we love money."

The only way you'll pay more is if the city decides to increase the "mill rate" (Besides naturally raising property values). Which is unlikely, because ND state and local governments seem to be lowering them.

A good trivia question would be "When is the last time Grand Forks increased the mill rate?"

People complain about property tax breaks but then vote to increase their own sales tax constantly in Grand Forks.

🫣

[Cratter]

I stumbled across this nugget from tax commissioners office:

This means Fargo's taxable sales and purchases dropped over six times more than Grand Forks’ during Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023.

[SIOUXFAN97]

5 hours ago, Cratter said:

I stumbled across this nugget from tax commissioners office:

This means Fargo's taxable sales and purchases dropped over six times more than Grand Forks’ during Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023.

oh boy...imperial cass is __________________________

[Oxbow6]

30 minutes ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:

oh boy...imperial cass is __________________________

At this point I just want people to "stay off my lawn"!

[Blackheart]

1 hour ago, Oxbow6 said:

At this point I just want people to "stay off my lawn"!

I thought that was the Nextdoor app...

[Bison Dan]

15 hours ago, Cratter said:

I stumbled across this nugget from tax commissioners office:

This means Fargo's taxable sales and purchases dropped over six times more than Grand Forks’ during Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023.

LOL  Nice cherry picking 

[SIOUXFAN97]

1 hour ago, Bison Dan said:

LOL  Nice cherry picking 

Is he wrong?

[Cratter]

Here's the link for anyone interested.

https://www.tax.nd.gov/news/tax-commissioner-reports-modest-gain-2024-fourth-quarter-collections

[SIOUXFAN97]

1 hour ago, Cratter said:

Here's the link for anyone interested.

https://www.tax.nd.gov/news/tax-commissioner-reports-modest-gain-2024-fourth-quarter-collections

is he wrong @Bison Dan ?

[Bison Dan]

19 hours ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:

is he wrong @Bison Dan ?

For that quarter no but over the last 10 years GF isn't even in the ball park.