PairWise Rankings 2010

[The Whistler]

Still feeling good about how well the simulator seems to be working, a prediction of Minnesota for our Gopher friends:

A sweep guarantees staying a TUC. A split makes staying a TUC very likely. Don't get swept.

Is there a Lucia job security feature in your predictor?

[xI Hammer Ix]

Man, I wish I knew how this all worked better, looks crazy confusing. Thanks for doing this I look forward to seeing the probablistic outcomes!

[jimdahl]

I actually enjoy the bye week quite a bit -- it's much easier to see the effects of other teams' games on UND when UND isn't playing.

Blog post -- PWR Forecast (includes season's first attempt at "games to watch")

[brianvf]

Thanks, as always, Jim.

It would be nice to end the bye week around 11th in PWR...and not near 19th.

[jimdahl]

Thanks, as always, Jim.

It would be nice to end the bye week around 11th in PWR...and not near 19th.

Ask and ye shall receive. One more bye week and the Sioux could have a #1 seed.

In all seriousness, looking back at the games to watch from the blog post, literally everything went UND's way:

* Northern Michigan took 3 of 4 from Ferris St

* Alaska took 3 from Michigan St

* Wisconsin beat Michigan

* Denver/CC swept Mercyhurst/Air Force

[krangodance]

Ask and ye shall receive. One more bye week and the Sioux could have a #1 seed.

In all seriousness, looking back at the games to watch from the blog post, literally everything went UND's way:

* Northern Michigan took 3 of 4 from Ferris St

* Alaska took 3 from Michigan St

* Wisconsin beat Michigan

* Denver/CC swept Mercyhurst/Air Force

yeah, it's amazing. i'm definitely a math guy, but i've never wanted to even try to figure out that complicated pwr system. when i saw we fell to 16th after friday night's games, i thought for sure we'd be even lower today because of the similarity in results between the two nights this weekend. i was obvisouly very pleasantly surprised to see we moved all the way to 10th.

this weekend was a huge break for the sioux. it's time to capitalize on our good fortune and start winning some games. our next three opponents are top tier teams. if this team starts winning, a 2 seed in the playoffs still isn't out of the rhelm of possibility.

go sioux!

[brianvf]

Ask and ye shall receive. One more bye week and the Sioux could have a #1 seed.

In all seriousness, looking back at the games to watch from the blog post, literally everything went UND's way:

* Northern Michigan took 3 of 4 from Ferris St

* Alaska took 3 from Michigan St

* Wisconsin beat Michigan

* Denver/CC swept Mercyhurst/Air Force

Thumbs up.

[fargosioux]

Assuming Minnesota does not make the NCAA tournament and North Dakota does, does anybody else think that the NCAA will try to place the Sioux in the West Regional at XCEL center for attendance purposes?

[krangodance]

Assuming Minnesota does not make the NCAA tournament and North Dakota does, does anybody else think that the NCAA will try to place the Sioux in the West Regional at XCEL center for attendance purposes?

at this point, it doesn't seem likely that will happen. duluth, st cloud, and wisonsin are all in the running for a #1 seed, especially wisonsin, and the #1 seeds always get the closest possible regional.

i doubt they'll put more than two wcha teams in one regional so if wisconsin goes to the excel, my guess is they'd consider duluth or st cloud the best option for the other wcha team to go to that regional.

i personally think the sioux would be a bigger draw then either of those teams, but the committee will think "hey, those teams are from minnesota and the xcel is in minnesota so those are the best options", then they'll go back to watching reality tv with the other neanderthals.

[brianvf]

If 6 WCHA teams make it (definite possibility), the NCAA committee is going to have to make some tough decisions about where to put them and who to pair them up against.

Right now we have:

2 DU

3 UW

4 SCSU

7 CC

9 UMD

10 UND

If the season ended today the WCHA would have 3 #1 seeds, a #2 seed, and 2 #3 seeds.

[Shawn-O]

at this point, it doesn't seem likely that will happen. duluth, st cloud, and wisonsin are all in the running for a #1 seed, especially wisonsin, and the #1 seeds always get the closest possible regional.

i doubt they'll put more than two wcha teams in one regional so if wisconsin goes to the excel, my guess is they'd consider duluth or st cloud the best option for the other wcha team to go to that regional.

i personally think the sioux would be a bigger draw then either of those teams, but the committee will think "hey, those teams are from minnesota and the xcel is in minnesota so those are the best options", then they'll go back to watching reality tv with the other neanderthals.

If the selection was today I think they'd find a way to get UND to the Xcel Center. These guys know how well Sioux fans travel.

[Washburn Sioux]

If there are 6 WCHA in the NCAA tourney, you can bet that they will place 3 of the WCHA teams in the same regional. The NCAA does not ever want to have a repeat of an all WCHA Forzen Four again. There could be 3 WCHA teams playing in the Minney regional.

[Blackheart]

If there are 6 WCHA in the NCAA tourney, you can bet that they will place 3 of the WCHA teams in the same regional. The NCAA does not ever want to have a repeat of an all WCHA Forzen Four again. There could be 3 WCHA teams playing in the Minney regional.

...or 4...

[Upper Deck]

If there are 6 WCHA in the NCAA tourney, you can bet that they will place 3 of the WCHA teams in the same regional. The NCAA does not ever want to have a repeat of an all WCHA Forzen Four again. There could be 3 WCHA teams playing in the Minney regional.

Don't forget Bemidji State currently tied for 5th.

[AZSIOUX]

If there are 6 WCHA in the NCAA tourney, you can bet that they will place 3 of the WCHA teams in the same regional. The NCAA does not ever want to have a repeat of an all WCHA Forzen Four again. There could be 3 WCHA teams playing in the Minney regional.

exactly. however they figure it out to make it happen there will not be a wcha in each regional with 5 or 6 wcha teams.

[jimdahl]

Don't forget Bemidji State currently tied for 5th.

I noticed Bemidji St's interesting position for the first time today while looking at UND's comparison.

Bemidji PWR Comparison Details

It's not clear that TUC is ever going to come into play for them, with only 7 games vs current TUCs and none scheduled (a shame, too, because they've got a great TUC record). Because of that, about half their comparisons are on the basis of RPI only. They need to win at least 6 of their remaining 8 to end the regular season without a noticeable drop in RPI (Bemidji RPI details). If they went just under .500, they could drop about 10 spots and out of the field. Of course, their remaining schedule isn't exactly a bear...

[krangodance]

an observation i find interesting is that five of the six conferences have at least one team in the top 16 of the pwr. if every conference tournament, with the exception of the atlantic conference, were to end up sending an automatic qualifier who's already in the top 16 of the pwr to the ncaa tournament, then i think this would be the first season in a long time that 15 of the top 16 teams in the pwr would make the tournament, which would likely make for some exciting games.

[Washburn Sioux]

In the recent years of 2005 and 2008, there were 6 WCHA teams that made the NCAA tournament. Each time, the NCAA placed 3 WCHA teams in the Midwest regional, and one WCHA team in each of the other 3 regionals. Should be interesting to see what develops.

[Blackheart]

this just in...the NCAA has appointed a committee to see if there is a way then can place more than 4 WCHA teams in one regional...possibly have 1 or 2 play in games...

[jimdahl]

Weekend PWR forecast

From the article...

Games to watch

Here are the non-Sioux games that could have the most influence on UND’s PWR after this weekend. The very different shapes of the UND PWR curves this week might affect how you interpret this list — since there is much higher variance on the swept curve, games that most affect the Sioux if UND gets swept probably dominate this list.

AA over Alaska (sweep helps 1.6, split 1.16)

Princeton/Quinnipiac over Yale (sweep helps .99, one win .54)

Merrimack over Maine (sweep helps .79)

Northeastern over UNH (sweep helps .55)

Follow along on UND PWR Details if you'd like...The first place to explore why Alaska is important is in its comparison to UND, which Alaska leads 2-1. COP doesn't seem up for grabs yet -- UND is 1-0-2 (.667) and the best Alaska could finish with a sweep is 4-2-2 (.625). Alaska's RPI is only supposed to be able to rise to about .535 with a sweep, which may be enough to overtake UND's RPI if swept.

However, that doesn't seem adequate to explain the importance of this game, particularly since the net effect is higher than 1. Alaska losing must flip some other teams' comparisons in a way that helps UND. I really don't know.

Yale is easy, we can take them on RPI and flip the comparison, if they lose.

The Maine comparison is up for grabs this weekend. The comparison currently at 1-1, UND and Maine both have perfect COP records and both are playing two games against COPs.

UNH is another easy one, UND currently has the comparison because of a very tenuous RPI lead. If UNH outperforms UND this weekend, RPI could flip and give UNH the comparison.

[fargosioux]

Jim, this analysis that you do is incredible! Thanks for doing it every week!

[Stromer]

Well we got the Merrimack win. Northeastern and UNH tied. Princeton lost to Yale. And AA was up on Alaska 2-0 before giving up 3 straight goals.

[mikejm]

Man. The bottom of the Pairwise chart has some big-time schools on it: Michigan, Boston U, Minnesota, Maine. There are going to be a lot of fans who are used to cheering into April finding themselves with nothing to do this year.

[jimdahl]

Well we got the Merrimack win. Northeastern and UNH tied. Princeton lost to Yale. And AA was up on Alaska 2-0 before giving up 3 straight goals.

And not a single team in the top 9 moved last night. UND did shore up the Maine comparison a little bit, and Yale is still very much up for grabs tonight, which is UND's most obvious opportunity to move up (though there are always dozens of less obvious ways).

[krangodance]

anybody know if the bu / vermont game today can move us up or down in the pwr?