2006 schedule

[jimdahl]

Dumb question - how does playing a 10-game or 11-game schedule affect the arithmetic for qualifying for the D-2 playoffs? Does it make a loss harder to overcome? Ignorant minds want to know ...

It depends. Unfortunately, not only on whether you win or lose the game, but on the strength of the opponent.

Under the old system, an additional win undoubtedly helped your win% (10-1 is a better record than 9-1) but could easily hurt your SSI if the win wasn't "good enough". That was easy to see, where weak home wins were worth 8 or so but top teams' SSI's were around 10.

If D-II moves to a straight RPI, as has been predicted, quality of opponents becomes even more important as win% only counts for 25% or so, strength of schedule the rest. That's RPI's biggest problem -- tacking on a season-ending win over Crookston actually makes you a worse team than you were a week before. A very realistic example, take:

UND 9-1, RPI = .650 (Win% .9, Opp% .6, Opp-opp% .5)

Add a season-ending win over a bottom dweller with a .100 win%:

UND 10-1 RPI = .627 (Win% .91, Opp% .55, Opp-opp% .5)

UND's RPI plummets from the extra game because the effect on opponents win% dwarfs the effect of the extra win on win%.

[RD17]

I do know that about three weeks UND was talking with at least one fairly prominent D2 school about a game. Apparently, nothing is going to come of that or you would think a contract would have been signed by now.

RPI along with overall record and in-region record are going to be the major factors in the playoff selections this year. So, like Jim's calculations point out, playing a bad team for an 11th game is probably a wash because the extra win is offset by a slight hit to the RPI.

[farce poobah]

Guys, thanks for the explanations.

Seems like nonconference planning becomes vital if an RPI measure gets used more prominently. Heck, in hockey, you can hide 2-3 games vs [bottom dweller]. But in football, the scenario Jim lays out becomes pretty high-risk. It also makes the handful of games the NCC plays vs RMAC or NSIC take on critical importance for the whole league...

[FargoBison]

Guys, thanks for the explanations.

Seems like nonconference planning becomes vital if an RPI measure gets used more prominently. Heck, in hockey, you can hide 2-3 games vs [bottom dweller]. But in football, the scenario Jim lays out becomes pretty high-risk. It also makes the handful of games the NCC plays vs RMAC or NSIC take on critical importance for the whole league...

IS THIS TRUE???(look at post #52)

Is UND going to play IAA Northern Iowa this season? The UNI fans seem to think so and I know they were looking into playing a DII team. UNI will be peseason top 5 next year and this game would also be a good measuring stick to see where UND needs to be if they move up. Good luck.

[UND92,96]

IS THIS TRUE???(look at post #52)

Is UND going to play IAA Northern Iowa this season? The UNI fans seem to think so and I know they were looking into playing a DII team. UNI will be peseason top 5 next year and this game would also be a good measuring stick to see where UND needs to be if they move up. Good luck.

I doubt it's true, unless the Mesa State game is off (which wouldn't be a bad thing, IMO).

[jimdahl]

Stranger things have happened than cancelling a schedule game, but its currently posts on a message board vs. Mesa State's published schedule; maybe they actually mean NDSU but are mistakenly saying UND, as so often happens when you leave the 1-state area. http://forum.siouxsports.com/uploads/emoticons/default_biggrin.png' alt=':D'> Bison even seem to have that date open.

unless the Mesa State game is off (which wouldn't be a bad thing, IMO).

Unless we move to I-AA, I'd rather play good D-II teams and work on our spot in the D-II playoffs than try to gain pride by "seeing how we stack up" with an almost certain loss against a top I-AA. (Though I'd certainly get excited about such a game if it were scheduled!)

[MN BISON]

Stranger things have happened than cancelling a schedule game, but its currently posts on a message board vs. Mesa State's published schedule; maybe they actually mean NDSU but are mistakenly saying UND, as so often happens when you leave the 1-state area. http://forum.siouxsports.com/uploads/emoticons/default_biggrin.png' alt=':D'> Bison even seem to have that date open.

Unless we move to I-AA, I'd rather play good D-II teams and work on our spot in the D-II playoffs than try to gain pride by "seeing how we stack up" with an almost certain loss against a top I-AA. (Though I'd certainly get excited about such a game if it were scheduled!)

From the DI-AA message board:

Its been confirmed by Coach Farley during an interview for Des Moines radio. We were supposed to be playing South Dakota, but they backed out.

[MplsBison]

You guys could buy our your Mesa contract for a decent guarantee with Northern Iowa.

This will also give yourselves a nice test against a quality I-AA if you feel you might want to go in that direction.

NDSU got Montana on the schedule and then announced they were going DI.

UND next?

[jimdahl]

NDSU got Montana on the schedule and then announced they were going DI.

UND next?

Haha -- if the Sioux could come back on UNI like you guys did against Montana, fans would be demanding a reclassificiation Though I still think we should focus on tournament seeding if we're staying D-II, if we're serious about I-AA, this game would be a great reality check and let everyone know just how big the gap is from UND to an top I-AA team. Reestablishing a relationship with an old friend wouldn't be a stupid way to kick off a transition, either.

[Shawn-O]

From very reliable sources, this game is happening. See 'yall in Cedar Falls. What an interesting and exciting time for Sioux athletics.

[bincitysioux]

We're playing Northern Iowa? That's awesome! I just hope they don't kick the snot out of us.

[USA Hockey]

From very reliable sources, this game is happening. See 'yall in Cedar Falls. What an interesting and exciting time for Sioux athletics.

Don't know what your "reliable sources" are, but I sure hope they are right. This game could give UND fans a good feel of what DI-AA football is like. If UND can make it somewhat of a game it will hopefully convince people at this University that DI is the right move.

[BisonMav]

AGS Link

Its been confirmed by Coach Farley during an interview for Des Moines radio. We were supposed to be playing South Dakota, but they backed out.

[bincitysioux]

Don't know what your "reliable sources" are, but I sure hope they are right. This game could give UND fans a good feel of what DI-AA football is like. If UND can make it somewhat of a game it will hopefully convince people at this University that DI is the right move.

I for one hope tha a move is announced before this game is played.

[Hansel]

I for one hope tha a move is announced before this game is played.

Isn't UNI's AD (who is responsible for scheduling) a UND alum?

[The Sicatoka]

Minnesota-Duluth played Northern Iowa last season.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/...3_boxscore.html

[tnt]

I would hope if they play UNI, that it would be because they are seriously considering making the move to DI and want to start making ties. Otherwise, the line of hurting our chances for the DII playoffs was just that -- a line. I believe that should have been the only reason not to play the Bison, because it would hurt playoff opportunities. If that was not the reason for discontinuing the Bison game, I would be very disappointed.

[jimdahl]

Otherwise, the line of hurting our chances for the DII playoffs was just that -- a line. I believe that should have been the only reason not to play the Bison, because it would hurt playoff opportunities. If that was not the reason for discontinuing the Bison game, I would be very disappointed.

Well, let's be careful there -- the strength of schedule impact on playing a I-AA team is different now from when NDSU left D-II; the year they transitioned happened to have the stupidest point scale such that even beating them would have devastated our SSI and likely sent us on the road in the playoffs. Now that playing I-AA teams is less punitive, UND already attempted to schedule the Bison long before this UNI possibility came up, and NDSU flat out refused.

[Shawn-O]

Don't know what your "reliable sources" are, but I sure hope they are right. This game could give UND fans a good feel of what DI-AA football is like. If UND can make it somewhat of a game it will hopefully convince people at this University that DI is the right move.

There was a good sized alumni gathering in downtown MPLS last night, I'll leave it at that. Trust me, it's "game on".

[tnt]

Well, let's be careful there -- the strength of schedule impact on playing a I-AA team is different now from when NDSU left D-II; the year they transitioned happened to have the stupidest point scale such that even beating them would have devastated our SSI and likely sent us on the road in the playoffs. Now that playing I-AA teams is less punitive, UND already attempted to schedule the Bison long before this UNI possibility came up, and NDSU flat out refused.

Thanks Jim, the phrase "unless the requirements have changed" was a qualifier I was going to add but it slipped my mind by the time I got through with the post.

[Cratter]

Well, let's be careful there -- the strength of schedule impact on playing a I-AA team is different now from when NDSU left D-II; the year they transitioned happened to have the stupidest point scale such that even beating them would have devastated our SSI and likely sent us on the road in the playoffs. Now that playing I-AA teams is less punitive, UND already attempted to schedule the Bison long before this UNI possibility came up, and NDSU flat out refused.

I wish there was a fact based page that showed time frames, links to actual stories, of stuff like this, because it seems to always come up.

Now that UND is playing UNI, I for see a lot of (bison) fans on the site saying "why not us"?

[rabidrabbit]

I wish there was a fact based page that showed time frames, links to actual stories, of stuff like this, because it seems to always come up.

Now that UND is playing UNI, I for see a lot of (bison) fans on the site saying "why not us"?

Simply put, this is to address a need BY UNI for a D-2 game. UNI has a murderous schedule this year. They needed a warm-up game. So, while I'll acknowledge that I'm pulling for our new Wrestling Conference partner to win this game, I'll also acknowledge that UND is in almost exactly the same position that NDSU was when they knocked off Montana. You'll have a good sense of how much you'll need to upgrade to move to D-1 with this game. Further, SDSU, a transitional like NDSU, plays UNI the following week. This will give you a sense of where you are vs. D-1, where a team with a long history with you, and hopefully a great future with you, is after 3 yrs of transition is relative to the top of 1-AA.

The Bison, still in transition, presented NO upside, other than possible bragging right, for UNI this year. And neither team was budging from having a home game on their turf this year. IMHO, THAT's why NDSU vs. UNI isn't happening this year. However, I can only read about it, and have NO inside info.

Sioux - Good luck with the NCC - hope this is your final year there, and that we'll see/enjoy your presence in D-1 soon. Enjoy, and play well, the "measuring stick" game with UNI.

[johnnyroyale]

I heard that both NDSU and UNI wanted a 6th home game this year. Both agreed to a home & home but problems arose when neither team would travel first. After negotiations failed, NDSU took the game with Minnesota. I would agree that North Dakota is in a similar position as was NDSU with Montana in 2003. This game will be a terrific measuring stick for the Sioux to see how they stack up to a top I-AA program. I see several possibilities for this game: UND could pull the upset, UND could keep it close in a loss and come out with little or minimal injuries and be feeling good about themselves, or UND could go down to a hostile environment and get embarassed by a good team known for playing exceptionally well at home. It should be fun and I anticipate a lot of excitement for Sioux fans.

[nd1sufan]

Jim, The Bison "flat out refused" to play the Sioux this year? What would you have chosen, Playing the Sioux as a second D2 gane, or taking $300,000 and regional exposure on Fox Sports Net to plat a Big 10 team? It sounds like a no brainer to me. Perhaps if the Sioux had agreed to a game before the Bison had Concordia St. Paul on their schedule as the only D2 game they will play something could have been worked out.

[bincitysioux]

Jim, The Bison "flat out refused" to play the Sioux this year? What would you have chosen, Playing the Sioux as a second D2 gane, or taking $300,000 and regional exposure on Fox Sports Net to plat a Big 10 team? It sounds like a no brainer to me. Perhaps if the Sioux had agreed to a game before the Bison had Concordia St. Paul on their schedule as the only D2 game they will play something could have been worked out.

I agree 100% with that assessment. Had UND gone DI with them, UND could have been playing Minnesota in 2006, and NDSU play them in 2007, or vice-versa.