NCAA seeding

[Dustin]

40 minutes ago, Dustin said:

The Holy Cross game, as embarrassing as that was for Minnesota, was the tipping point of this.  Not to say Holy Cross could have won the Natty that year, but after that, #4 seeds not only only beating #1 seeds, but also winning it all, became normalized.

Went back and did the research.  2003 was the first year of the 16-team field like we currently use.  In 2006, Holy Cross was the first 4-seed to win over a 1-seed.  Since then, ONLY 2022 and 2024 were the years the tournament DID NOT feature a 4-seed winning a game.  In some years, two (or more) 4-seeds won games.  And, in 2013 (Yale) and 2015 (Providence), the National Champion started the tournament as 4-seed.

[The Sicatoka]

Yeah, they’re in:

Mich
UND
Mich St
Western Mich
Denver
UMD
Prov
Dart
Corn
PSU
Q

Two paths still there, AQ or at large:

UMass
UConn

Only way in is win conference tournament:

UST / Minn State
BC / Merrimack (UMass or UConn winning bumps both) 
Ohio State
Princeton / Clarkson (Dart or Corn winning bumps both) 
Bentley / Sacred Heart

It has to fall just so in their favor to get an at large:

Wisconsin (89% chance in)
Augustana (22% chance in)

[siouxweet]

48 minutes ago, Dustin said:

Went back and did the research.  2003 was the first year of the 16-team field like we currently use.  In 2006, Holy Cross was the first 4-seed to win over a 1-seed.  Since then, ONLY 2022 and 2024 were the years the tournament DID NOT feature a 4-seed winning a game.  In some years, two (or more) 4-seeds won games.  And, in 2013 (Yale) and 2015 (Providence), the National Champion started the tournament as 4-seed.

We were one of those 4 seeds to win in 2014.

[Dustin]

22 minutes ago, siouxweet said:

We were one of those 4 seeds to win in 2014.

Yep.

[franchise]

Latest Bracketology has SF at:

UND vs UConn

Dartmouth vs PSU

[SIOUXFAN97]

5 minutes ago, franchise said:

Latest Bracketology has SF at:

UND vs UConn

Dartmouth vs PSU

ill take that!

[Dustin]

So far, UND has escaped the 4-seed upset, but many blue-bloods have suffered them: Michigan, Denver, Boston College, Minnesota, Wisconsin.

[Dustin]

12 minutes ago, franchise said:

Latest Bracketology has SF at:

UND vs UConn

Dartmouth vs PSU

 

6 minutes ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:

ill take that!

I kind of doubt that no other Midwestern teams besides UND will be in Sioux Falls, but we could be a bailed out by a team swap to avoid a intra-conference first round match up.  

[franchise]

4 minutes ago, Dustin said:

 

I kind of doubt that no other Midwestern teams besides UND will be in Sioux Falls, but we could be a bailed out by a team swap to avoid a intra-conference first round match up.  

In that scenario, they only needed to swap Dart and Prov to avoid first round matchups.

[Dustin]

Probably not something that we don't already know, but how Denver fares this weekend is the key to the regional set up.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2026/03/16_Bracket-Breakdown-Denver.php

[AJS]

15 minutes ago, Dustin said:

Probably not something that we don't already know, but how Denver fares this weekend is the key to the regional set up.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2026/03/16_Bracket-Breakdown-Denver.php

Quote

Denver is the host in nearby (60 miles) Loveland, Colo., and must be there. But it will be there as a 2 seed. The question is whether it will be a 2 seed at 5th overall, or a 2 seed at 7th overall. At 5th overall, it would line up naturally in the serpentine nature of bracketing a tournament, with the 4th overall, which is Western Michigan. At 7th overall, it would line up with 2nd overall, which is North Dakota, which isn't going anywhere, so I think Michigan State would go to Loveland.

Per their own Probability Matrix this is incorrect. Denver will either be the 5th or 6th, not 5th or 7th.

[Big Green]

17 minutes ago, AJS said:

Per their own Probability Matrix this is incorrect. Denver will either be the 5th or 6th, not 5th or 7th.

They are probably just trying to get people riled up with MSU having to go to CO when it should be UND per bracket integrity.  Pretty simple, DU wins and they are the 5 seed and Western goes to Loveland.  Lose and DU is the 6 overall and Michigan St goes to Loveland.  I don't know how they would end up as a 7 seed, maybe when i have time to kill I'll try to figure it out.

 

 

 

[Dustin]

The locations of this year's regional sites and the #1 seeds to fill them are a good reason for me to bring up an idea I've promoting on multiple threads over the last couple years:  The Super Regional.  Two Super Regionals with 8 teams each in NHL cities close to the college hockey hubs: St. Paul, Detroit, Boston, and maybe Denver.  (Denver would be a lot more useful if there were more Colorado teams consistently making the NCAA). 

Let's say, for instance, that the tournament teams are set as they currently stand in the NPI, with the #16 spot going to Bentley.  Let's also say the the super regional sites this year are Detroit and St. Paul.  (Boston (and Denver) get to host next year.)  As #1 overall seed, Michigan gets to pick (or is assigned by the committee) their pod's regional site first.  They go to Detroit for obvious reasons - close travel, big alumni fan base, etc.  As #2 overall seed, North Dakota is next and they go to St. Paul, for the same reasons.  As #3, Michigan State goes to Detroit, and #4 Western Michigan is left with St. Paul.  Notice that the adjacent pods are not at the same regional site (this was an idea that someone else had steered me towards, based on the NCAA BB tournament).  I know this doesn't completely solve the problem of regionals being far away.  Say this was the bracket for next year, and Michigan had to go to either Boston or Denver.  But I think this would inject some excitement into the regional format, and fans would have a chance to see six games at one venue instead of three.

[cberkas]

6 minutes ago, Dustin said:

The locations of this year's regional sites and the #1 seeds to fill them are a good reason for me to bring up an idea I've promoting on multiple threads over the last couple years:  The Super Regional.  Two Super Regionals with 8 teams each in NHL cities close to the college hockey hubs: St. Paul, Detroit, Boston, and maybe Denver.  (Denver would be a lot more useful if there were more Colorado teams consistently making the NCAA). 

Let's say, for instance, that the tournament teams are set as they currently stand in the NPI, with the #16 spot going to Bentley.  Let's also say the the super regional sites this year are Detroit and St. Paul.  (Boston (and Denver) get to host next year.)  As #1 overall seed, Michigan gets to pick (or is assigned by the committee) their pod's regional site first.  They go to Detroit for obvious reasons - close travel, big alumni fan base, etc.  As #2 overall seed, North Dakota is next and they go to St. Paul, for the same reasons.  As #3, Michigan State goes to Detroit, and #4 Western Michigan is left with St. Paul.  Notice that the adjacent pods are not at the same regional site (this was an idea that someone else had steered me towards, based on the NCAA BB tournament).  I know this doesn't completely solve the problem of regionals being far away.  Say this was the bracket for next year, and Michigan had to go to either Boston or Denver.  But I think this would inject some excitement into the regional format, and fans would have a chance to see six games at one venue instead of three.

They did this before and the NHL isn't going to give up 3 venues for two weeks (to get the ice and boards ready). 

[brucespook]

7 minutes ago, Dustin said:

The locations of this year's regional sites and the #1 seeds to fill them are a good reason for me to bring up an idea I've promoting on multiple threads over the last couple years:  The Super Regional.  Two Super Regionals with 8 teams each in NHL cities close to the college hockey hubs: St. Paul, Detroit, Boston, and maybe Denver.  (Denver would be a lot more useful if there were more Colorado teams consistently making the NCAA). 

Let's say, for instance, that the tournament teams are set as they currently stand in the NPI, with the #16 spot going to Bentley.  Let's also say the the super regional sites this year are Detroit and St. Paul.  (Boston (and Denver) get to host next year.)  As #1 overall seed, Michigan gets to pick (or is assigned by the committee) their pod's regional site first.  They go to Detroit for obvious reasons - close travel, big alumni fan base, etc.  As #2 overall seed, North Dakota is next and they go to St. Paul, for the same reasons.  As #3, Michigan State goes to Detroit, and #4 Western Michigan is left with St. Paul.  Notice that the adjacent pods are not at the same regional site (this was an idea that someone else had steered me towards, based on the NCAA BB tournament).  I know this doesn't completely solve the problem of regionals being far away.  Say this was the bracket for next year, and Michigan had to go to either Boston or Denver.  But I think this would inject some excitement into the regional format, and fans would have a chance to see six games at one venue instead of three.

I wouldn’t mind this if there was a week between conference tournaments and the regional,  but if I have to fly to get to a site I don’t want to have to plan at a moments notice.   

[Big Green]

2 minutes ago, brucespook said:

I wouldn’t mind this if there was a week between conference tournaments and the regional,  but if I have to fly to get to a site I don’t want to have to plan at a moments notice.   

Um...  Unless UND is hosting you need to plan at a moments notice now if you are going to the regional, as you don't really know what Regional they will be in until its anounced.

 

[Big Green]

15 minutes ago, Dustin said:

The locations of this year's regional sites and the #1 seeds to fill them are a good reason for me to bring up an idea I've promoting on multiple threads over the last couple years:  The Super Regional.  Two Super Regionals with 8 teams each in NHL cities close to the college hockey hubs: St. Paul, Detroit, Boston, and maybe Denver.  (Denver would be a lot more useful if there were more Colorado teams consistently making the NCAA). 

Let's say, for instance, that the tournament teams are set as they currently stand in the NPI, with the #16 spot going to Bentley.  Let's also say the the super regional sites this year are Detroit and St. Paul.  (Boston (and Denver) get to host next year.)  As #1 overall seed, Michigan gets to pick (or is assigned by the committee) their pod's regional site first.  They go to Detroit for obvious reasons - close travel, big alumni fan base, etc.  As #2 overall seed, North Dakota is next and they go to St. Paul, for the same reasons.  As #3, Michigan State goes to Detroit, and #4 Western Michigan is left with St. Paul.  Notice that the adjacent pods are not at the same regional site (this was an idea that someone else had steered me towards, based on the NCAA BB tournament).  I know this doesn't completely solve the problem of regionals being far away.  Say this was the bracket for next year, and Michigan had to go to either Boston or Denver.  But I think this would inject some excitement into the regional format, and fans would have a chance to see six games at one venue instead of three.

I Like this, but only if it is over 3 days, not 4.  I.e. Detroit Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  and St Paul Friday, Saturday and Sunday.  The teams that play Thursday get a day off and the Teams the play Friday play the next day.  All 4 winner teams will get the same amount of rest.  The Friday teams would play early games on Friday and the late game on Saturday.  2 Games everyday would be a fun 3 days. 

[Dustin]

32 minutes ago, cberkas said:

They did this before and the NHL isn't going to give up 3 venues for two weeks (to get the ice and boards ready). 

I hadn't considered the NHL's role in this, but you make a valid point about arena use.  I know they were badgers about the Olympics for a while, but realized they could work around them to make it better for everyone.  With the NCAA now the premier path to the NHL, I would hope that letting your venue be used to showcase future talent, they would find that as a win-win.

[Dustin]

24 minutes ago, Big Green said:

I Like this, but only if it is over 3 days, not 4.  I.e. Detroit Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  and St Paul Friday, Saturday and Sunday.  The teams that play Thursday get a day off and the Teams the play Friday play the next day.  All 4 winner teams will get the same amount of rest.  The Friday teams would play early games on Friday and the late game on Saturday.  2 Games everyday would be a fun 3 days. 

With the 2021 UND-UMD 5 OT game being the reason for the extra day, I would think they would stick with the Thursday/Saturday and Friday/Sunday groupings.  

[WiSioux]

Imagine if game one on Thursday went to 5 OTs.... every game at the super regional works be pushed back

[Wilbur]

I just ran a this scenario:

Winners: 

Mankato over St. Thomas. 

Dartmouth, Cornell, Cornell wins

Umass, Uconn, Uconn wins

Michigan over Ohio State

Duluth over Denver

Bentley wins

This puts Duluth at the 5th seed and Denver 6th.  Would UND then end up in Colorado as the 2 possibly?