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Posted
8 minutes ago, yzerman19 said:

its a great debate.  Lots to consider in all of this.  It depends on the team and the kid a lot too.  It is telling that the best WHL eligible US players that were drafted in 2025 ALL chose NTDP over WHL when offered in April.  

That is very true. And it would be taboo to go against the grain that is the NTDP. Time will tell I suppose.

Posted

I’m not expecting to hear much on Carels until after the draft. The Called Up podcast made it sound like he’s expected to sign on yesterday’s podcast. Going to college eliminates the possibility of him getting sent back to PG and he still will get NHL games at the end of the year but I understand that he ultimately wants to play in the NHL. The risk of playing a season in college and joining his NHL team in the spring is very minimal.

Posted
5 minutes ago, beastandco said:

I’m not expecting to hear much on Carels until after the draft. The Called Up podcast made it sound like he’s expected to sign on yesterday’s podcast. Going to college eliminates the possibility of him getting sent back to PG and he still will get NHL games at the end of the year but I understand that he ultimately wants to play in the NHL. The risk of playing a season in college and joining his NHL team in the spring is very minimal.

Why would he visit, if he plans on signing. He’s clearly interested in playing college puck.

  • Like 1
Posted
28 minutes ago, beastandco said:

I’m not expecting to hear much on Carels until after the draft. The Called Up podcast made it sound like he’s expected to sign on yesterday’s podcast. Going to college eliminates the possibility of him getting sent back to PG and he still will get NHL games at the end of the year but I understand that he ultimately wants to play in the NHL. The risk of playing a season in college and joining his NHL team in the spring is very minimal.

They got that sequence a little jumbled with how they talked about but they were talking about Albert Smits actually.

 

Rewound a couple of times to double check that lol

Posted
7 minutes ago, atxsioux said:

They got that sequence a little jumbled with how they talked about but they were talking about Albert Smits actually.

 

Rewound a couple of times to double check that lol

From like 43:00 to like 43:20 Cam Robinson said “he’d like I think” and “I think he’s expected to sign”. Definitely a little jumbled but I think they are talking about Carels but are kind of all over the place so I wouldn’t read much into it. 

Posted
25 minutes ago, beastandco said:

From like 43:00 to like 43:20 Cam Robinson said “he’d like I think” and “I think he’s expected to sign”. Definitely a little jumbled but I think they are talking about Carels but are kind of all over the place so I wouldn’t read much into it. 

I took it as Carels as well. Good news, Carels (his family, representation) as well as the colleges know what he wants to do. Ultimately, he dictates it. If he’s set on trying to make the NHL, wish him well and move on. UND wouldn’t hold a spot for him if they didn’t feel it was likely he would end up here. 

I also think in some ways how you recruit Rudolph and DuPont changes as well. 
 

Earlier they talked about the colleges needing to know. I’m starting to lean towards we find out earlier than the draft. 
 

 

Posted
8 minutes ago, AJS said:

I took it as Carels as well. Good news, Carels (his family, representation) as well as the colleges know what he wants to do. Ultimately, he dictates it. If he’s set on trying to make the NHL, wish him well and move on. UND wouldn’t hold a spot for him if they didn’t feel it was likely he would end up here. 

To be fair, that podcast has been all over Carels to UND for months. Schloss talked about Carels quite a bit in his podcast yesterday and said Carels their top choice. It feels like it NHL or UND. I do not think he takes a visit if his mind is made up. His sister plays at Jamestown so I am sure his family wouldn’t be opposed to him coming to Grand Forks.

Posted
11 minutes ago, beastandco said:

To be fair, that podcast has been all over Carels to UND for months. Schloss talked about Carels quite a bit in his podcast yesterday and said Carels their top choice. It feels like it NHL or UND. I do not think he takes a visit if his mind is made up. His sister plays at Jamestown so I am sure his family wouldn’t be opposed to him coming to Grand Forks.

100% agree. I think you’re right on and currently the Carels camp is in decision making mode. NCAA or NHL is a different discussion than CHL or NHL. Different variables and likelihoods (ex: if I want to push for NHL, what chances I make it and stick?). 
 

Who knows, maybe after this visit (per @Siouxdaddy) he decides UND is what he wants.

I could see that happening. Formal commitment.

  • Upvote 1
Posted
23 minutes ago, scpa0305 said:

Thanks for sharing. Not sure who is and isn't committed among this list of top Americans in CHL(obviously DeMars is!):

 

Gavin Burcar (WHL), Brooks DeMars (WHL), Finn Spehar (WHL), Nolan Snyder (OHL), Tyler Cooper (OHL), Ryan Kaczynski (OHL), Gerry DiCunzolo (OHL), Landon Jackman  (OHL), Mark Pape (OHL), Anthony Timmerman (OHL), Patrick Ula (OHL), Drew Roscoe (OHL) and Cameron Minella (OHL) 

Posted

Our forward group is full, so no space with us, but Drew Stewart of Minnetonka was a ppg skater as an overager in the regular season for Muskegon and is doing the same in the playoffs but is not committed anywhere for next season. Curious where he lands.

Posted
15 hours ago, scpa0305 said:

Really interesting article with some good data points.  To some degree, this is about a numbers game and sorta shows that the scouts don't necessarily get it correct on 15/16 year olds.  If you have one or two surprise hits and one or two surprise misses out of every 20 guys, that makes a huge difference across the sheer number of players in the CHL vs the USHL and definitely vs the single team NTDP.  I like the point that there is no veteran leadership on the ice and no further-developed players age wise on the NTDP...You can certainly point collect without being the alpha dog on a CHL team if you are on the pp and playing with older, drafted players on the regular.  

In looking at the 2010's in particular and the data points in terms of when American kids committed to the WHL it reveals that several of the guys referenced made the call around the time they or their agents learned they were not being invited to 40-man camp such as Colmer and Kaebel.  Both are good players, but they weren't getting invites. 

Dozark is a notable exception as he is a top 4 D in the US in that birth year and committed way earlier than the 40-man discussion.  His rights were also held by Portland which is a US destination and a top end program.  Much easier transition for an American kid. Deraney is another that had a solid shot at making the NTDP and chose to go WHL before invites went out.  He also had a destination that is familar to US players in that Penticton was in the BCHL and developing NCAA talent for years before making the move to the WHL.  These cases are also a product of the fact that the WHL drafts a year early giving players that clear option and being able to woo players for almost a year before the NTDP makes its selections.  

Sorry all, I thought this was really interesting and commented, but further discussion on the matter probably should land on another thread...

  • Upvote 1
Posted
3 minutes ago, cberkas said:

 

Could definitely see that with the U.S. Players.  Putting them in the same draft as Canadian kids, that risk of ever reporting and maybe only getting them for 1 year looms large.

  • Upvote 1
Posted
2 hours ago, yzerman19 said:

Really interesting article with some good data points.  To some degree, this is about a numbers game and sorta shows that the scouts don't necessarily get it correct on 15/16 year olds.  If you have one or two surprise hits and one or two surprise misses out of every 20 guys, that makes a huge difference across the sheer number of players in the CHL vs the USHL and definitely vs the single team NTDP.  I like the point that there is no veteran leadership on the ice and no further-developed players age wise on the NTDP...You can certainly point collect without being the alpha dog on a CHL team if you are on the pp and playing with older, drafted players on the regular.  

In looking at the 2010's in particular and the data points in terms of when American kids committed to the WHL it reveals that several of the guys referenced made the call around the time they or their agents learned they were not being invited to 40-man camp such as Colmer and Kaebel.  Both are good players, but they weren't getting invites. 

Dozark is a notable exception as he is a top 4 D in the US in that birth year and committed way earlier than the 40-man discussion.  His rights were also held by Portland which is a US destination and a top end program.  Much easier transition for an American kid. Deraney is another that had a solid shot at making the NTDP and chose to go WHL before invites went out.  He also had a destination that is familar to US players in that Penticton was in the BCHL and developing NCAA talent for years before making the move to the WHL.  These cases are also a product of the fact that the WHL drafts a year early giving players that clear option and being able to woo players for almost a year before the NTDP makes its selections.  

Sorry all, I thought this was really interesting and commented, but further discussion on the matter probably should land on another thread...

With this article, there’s recency bias as well. Go back 3-4 years and the NTDP was producing top 5 guy after top 5 guy. It’s a moving target for sure.

Posted

The other factor is the kid factor and being away from home.  Some kids aren't ready for that.  Some situations aren't great either in terms of billets, etc.  some kids might not want to live and breathe hockey. Some kids might hate the emphasis in the gym.  Some might find regional differences hard to deal with or rural vs urban vs suburban settings. School is a factor.  My point is it isn't all just about hockey that these decisions are made. 

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