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Rail shipments in ND: Bad information


The Sicatoka

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Seems Senator Heitkamp got some not-so-great data about rail shipments in North Dakota

 

 

I know I see way more oil than coal or grain cars on the tracks lately. And I don't see the numbers of coal and grain cars of the past. 

 

Can we get the real numbers and start to work on whatever the issue really is?

 

 

A North Dakota State University study cited by public officials in hearings on rail shipment delays has been withdrawn as an official publication of the university.

 

William Wilson, a professor in the (NDSU Department of Agribusiness and Economics), said Thursday that there’s “nothing radically wrong” with the report, but it was done on short notice and included a couple of assumptions that were “probably not appropriate or defendable.”
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Seems Senator Heitkamp got some not-so-great data about rail shipments in North Dakota

 

 

I know I see way more oil than coal or grain cars on the tracks lately. And I don't see the numbers of coal and grain cars of the past. 

 

Can we get the real numbers and start to work on whatever the issue really is?

Imagine that:  NDSU is feeding bad info to the State's Senators.  That bad information directly hurts farmers and the ag sector, who are NDSUs bread and butter.   Sounds like a Bresciani or Chapman report to the SBoHE or legislature.

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Imagine that:  NDSU is feeding bad info to the State's Senators.  That bad information directly hurts farmers and the ag sector, who are NDSUs bread and butter.   Sounds like a Bresciani or Chapman report to the SBoHE or legislature.

Maybe you should have your law school look in to it? Oh wait most can't pass the Bar!!

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I know some love headlines, but reading for depth finds:

 

North Dakota’s overall passing and first-time rate is in line with national average, but this last group of 50 first-time test-takers was extremely low.

 

OK, so this latest group was below average.

 

Putting that into perspective, and I know this may stun some, but 50% of all Americans are below the average age of an American. 

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Maybe you should have your law school look in to it? Oh wait most can't pass the Bar!!

 

I don't think "most" means what you think it means.

 

That said, Rand should be embarrassed by a 56% passage rate.  When I graduated it was about 90%. I took the Minnesota bar and passed it on the first try while working full-time, so it's not rocket science kids,  They probably took too many fluff courses offered in years 2-3 to puff up their GPAs and forgot about things like mens rea and the Rule Against Perpetuities. 

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I know some love headlines, but reading for depth finds:

 

 

 

 

OK, so this latest group was below average.

 

Putting that into perspective, and I know this may stun some, but 50% of all Americans are below the average age of an American. 

there are alot of below average students going through UND's law school right now.

 

last I heard, applications to law school around the country are dropping; that is going to hurt the quality of student that UND can attract.

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Looks like the Med school is getting ready to be closed down! 

 

http://www.inforum.com/content/accrediting-agency-places-und-medical-school-warning-category-changes-imminent

 

With the trouble with EERC, Law School, and now the Med school - who the hell is running the place?

 

Just a tad high on the overstatement there, eh Dan? They have to address some findings in an audit. One of them is they are letting the remote campuses be *too* autonomous and not having enough central oversight. (I thought autonomy was good.) 

 

But to your other point:

I've never been a Kelley fan but dumping him because of a football team as some have called for? No.

Because of this trifecta on his watch? Yes. 

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Just a tad high on the overstatement there, eh Dan? They have to address some findings in an audit. One of them is they are letting the remote campuses be *too* autonomous and not having enough central oversight. (I thought autonomy was good.) 

 

But to your other point:

I've never been a Kelley fan but dumping him because of a football team as some have called for? No.

Because of this trifecta on his watch? Yes. 

 

He's actually watching what's been happening at UND?

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Looks like the Med school is getting ready to be closed down! 

 

http://www.inforum.com/content/accrediting-agency-places-und-medical-school-warning-category-changes-imminent

 

With the trouble with EERC, Law School, and now the Med school - who the hell is running the place?

Looks like Dan is a strong reader! Unfortunately, comprehending what he has read is not a strength.

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Looks like the Med school is getting ready to be closed down! 

 

http://www.inforum.com/content/accrediting-agency-places-und-medical-school-warning-category-changes-imminent

 

With the trouble with EERC, Law School, and now the Med school - who the hell is running the place?

 

UND is building a brand new med school.  Pretty sure it isn't going to be shut down.    :silly:

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I agree a little hyper bowl there but still these agencies tell you before they come with what they expect and want to see, so the question is why wasn't it done? 

 

Did the Wool Accreditation Committee visit the sheep on 19th Ave yet to assess the quality and verify processes are being followed?

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I agree a little hyper bowl there but still these agencies tell you before they come with what they expect and want to see, so the question is why wasn't it done? 

 

I'm not a Kelley fan lately, but he has a point: On something like degree of autonomy/central control, that's something that can be difference of opinion (We have enough central control; No you don't) pretty fast. 

 

But yes, some things need to be looked at. Maybe it's the wake-up call they needed. 

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Also, how can someone (dan) not understand the concept of 2 reasonable people having differing opinions regarding the level of centralization necessary to constitute adequate oversight of branch campuses?

It was more than that and what difference does it make even if you're right, these agencies don't care about right just as long as you do it their way.

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Getting back to the topic:

 

"We are seeing customers that are using 10,000 tons of sand for one well, and just to put it in perspective, that's a mile long train of sand, to just frac one well," Chief Executive Bryan Shinn told Reuters.

 

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/19/us-ussilica-demand-idUSKBN0HE12P20140919

 

Meanwhile, Continental Resources has announced that it will increase the sand used per well to get more oil/well.  This will increase the costs of a well by 20%, which will increase their capital expenditures by 20%.  The market reacted to the good news by sending Continental's stock down nearly 10% yesterday.  The market hates when a company spends more capital.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/continental-resources-boosts-2014-capex-222646671.html

 

So next year, North Dakota will effectively see 5000 miles of trains just filled with sand needed for fracking wells.  Most of the sand comes from Wisconsin or Iowa, so the railroad will just get busier going east with sand, oil, pipe, and grain.

 

Williston is building a massive train yard east of town to unload all the sand.  Sand is like a new gold for fracking.  If you invested in sand, you would have made a fortune, because the sand needed for fracking is rare.

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Getting back to the topic:

 

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/19/us-ussilica-demand-idUSKBN0HE12P20140919

 

Meanwhile, Continental Resources has announced that it will increase the sand used per well to get more oil/well.  This will increase the costs of a well by 20%, which will increase their capital expenditures by 20%.  The market reacted to the good news by sending Continental's stock down nearly 10% yesterday.  The market hates when a company spends more capital.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/continental-resources-boosts-2014-capex-222646671.html

 

So next year, North Dakota will effectively see 5000 miles of trains just filled with sand needed for fracking wells.  Most of the sand comes from Wisconsin or Iowa, so the railroad will just get busier going east with sand, oil, pipe, and grain.

 

Williston is building a massive train yard east of town to unload all the sand.  Sand is like a new gold for fracking.  If you invested in sand, you would have made a fortune, because the sand needed for fracking is rare.

I don't know the numbers and am not in the industry, but I still think this comes down to power.  You can expand track capacity all you want, but if you don't have the locomotives it doesn't do any good.  Even before the boom hit, the BN didn't have enough power during some times of the year to just handle grain.  I can't imagine the situation is any better now.  Farmers are investing in storage like crazy right now to help deal with the situation.

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I don't know the numbers and am not in the industry, but I still think this comes down to power.  You can expand track capacity all you want, but if you don't have the locomotives it doesn't do any good.  Even before the boom hit, the BN didn't have enough power during some times of the year to just handle grain.  I can't imagine the situation is any better now.  Farmers are investing in storage like crazy right now to help deal with the situation.

BNSF doesn't have enough manpower either, so they have to hire and train.  GE is building a new locomotive factory in Fort Worth, with other locomotives coming from Erie.  So new locomotives are coming on line.  The whole train infrastructure is booming, as builders of railcars are seeing massive orders which were unthinkable before the oil boom.  The new standards for Bakken oil railcars will only increase the orders, since most oil railcars will have to be replaced.

 

BNSF is also doubling tracks everywhere where there is a choke point.  BNSF is building a second parallel bridge over Lake Pend O'reille in Idaho.  That's a huge and very expensive undertaking, but just one choke point.

 

http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/burlington-northern-wants-to-build-nd-bridge-over-lake-pend/article_dd92ebda-3e9f-11e4-bd54-c338e3079947.html

 

It is almost as if the massive railroad building the spurred the economy in the 1880s is reappearing.

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The manpower issue will become a little clearer if the labor agreement is ratified and put in place calling for one man train crews. http://www.twincities.com/nation/ci_26179493/bnsf-trains-could-have-one-person-crew-tentative

Wasn't that long ago that classes of trainmen finished training and were immediately furloughed.

There's plenty of power to pull the trains, but every siding east between Minot and Chicago has a train sitting on it.

The Bakken has flipped the rail industry on its ear.

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