On the bubble

[jimdahl]

Brad's article in this morning's Herald reminded me that I always meant to say something about women's PWR.

For the record, given that this is the first time it's been really interesting for UND, I tried to adapt the PWR forecaster to women's hockey but failed miserably.

For those who follow men's hockey and the PWR closely, what I can deliver now is a succinct list of the differences in how women's teams are selected:

* The championship is not D-I, but "National Collegiate" which includes any D-I or D-II team that has played 20 games against D-I or D-II opponents.

* RPI weightings are different (30-24-46 instead of 25-21-54)

* TUC is vs. the top 12 in RPI rather than against > .500 in RPI, though TUCs must be over .500 in RPI.

That last one is most interesting. USCHO seems to interpret that as meaning that teams in the top 12 are TUCs, whereas the NCAA manual instead definitely implies that teams over .500 are TUCs but are only compared to the top 12 for the purposes of the TUC criterion.

Anyway, I have everything implemented except including D-II and the 20 games rule, so there's a remote chance I finish.

Here's section 2.3 "Selection Criteria" from the National Collegiate Women's Ice Hockey Championship Manual:

Divisions I and II institutions that wish to be considered for selection to the National Collegiate Championship must schedule

a minimum of 20 games against Divisions I and II opponents.

After considering the eligibility/availability of student-athletes for each team, the committee will evaluate a team’s season

performance using the categories below. Teams must also be at or above 50.00 in the RPI in order to receive the following

consideration (not in preferential order):

●● *Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [won-lost record (30 percent), opponents’ winning percentage (24 percent) and

opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage (46 percent)];

●● Head-to-head competition;

●● Results versus common opponents; and

●● Results versus teams in the top 12 of the RPI.

*If points awarded for any win lower a team’s average RPI, those points will not count toward the RPI.

During the selection process, each of the above criteria will carry one point except head-to-head competition, which will

carry the number of points equal to the net difference in the results of these games (e.g., if Team A defeats Team B three

out of four games, Team A would receive two points in the selection process). When comparing two teams, the committee

reserves the right to weight criteria differently based on relative team performance. For example, if there is only a tiny

fraction of a difference two teams records vs. common opponents, and a large difference in their results vs. teams under

consideration, the committee may weight results vs. teams under consideration more heavily than common opponents.

In situations where a high impact player is unavailable, the committee may consider this as part of its evaluation of the above

criteria.

The National Collegiate Women’s Ice Hockey Committee does not consider outside polls as a source for selections.

[talksalot83]

It really burns that it's been difficult for the women's team to crack the tournament. In the presser this week, Idalski said that he always believed that if UND could crack the top three in the WCHA that they would be able to make the tournament.

[nodakvindy]

Rough day yesterday for the UND women. UMD's upset of Wisconsin was a backbreaker.

Results to hope for today to keep UND in the NCAA tourney

Cornell over St. Lawrence

Robert Morris over Mercyhurst

Minnesota over UM-D

Boston College over Boston U.

Northeastern over Providence

[nodakvindy]

Looks like it comes down to the WCHA title game. If the Gophs win, UND should be in, but if the Dogs win, likely on the outside looking in. Still can't believe Wisconsin lost yesterday.

[RedFrog]

Right now, according to USCHO, with only the UMD/UMN game and the BU/Providence game tomorrow, the Sioux are currently tied for 6th with St. Lawrence, winning the RPI tie breaker. With Robert Morris and St. Lawrence already claiming 2 of the auto bids, and either BU or Providence taking a 3rd, that already puts the cutoff at 5th. To get to 5th, UND would need to be able to flip 2 comparisons, or flip the comparison with BC (only a .0006 difference in RPI).

If UMD wins, there is basically no shot for the Sioux, however, if UMN wins, is it enough to sway UND's RPI more than .0006 points? Then, keep in mind that the BU/Providence game will affect BC's RPI (I would guess) as well as UND's as they played BU earlier in the year. I don't know enough of how the RPI formula works to know if this is even a chance. But right now, the Sioux's chances are pretty slim, IMO.

Edit: Does the CHA get an auto bid with only 4 teams? Maybe Robert Morris winning that conference doesn't hurt the Sioux.

Edited March 4, 2012 by RedFrog

[Stromer]

As far as I can tell the CHA does not have an autobid because they only have 4 teams. So even though RMU won that conference, they won't make the NCAA tourney. Thus it basically all comes down to if Duluth wins tonight or not.

[nodakvindy]

There needs to be more interleague play in the women's game. The WCHA should cut back to 24 league games. That would allow for more games against eastern teams and help improve the pairwise. But I would never expect the WCHA to do something that would make sense.

[RedFrog]

Well, Minnesota won (Yay!!) and our RPI went down .0002. Wonder what it would've done if UMD would've won, not that I wanted to find out mind you.

[siouxnami]

Whew, I didn't realize that RMU didn't get an auto bid. With that the Sioux should sneak in. Love to get Cornell for game 1 :-)

[siouxforce19]

Whew, I didn't realize that RMU didn't get an auto bid. With that the Sioux should sneak in. Love to get Cornell for game 1 :-)

There's talk on USCHO that the committee might pick Northeastern over UND for the last spot. Doesn't make sense to me, but... Women's don't always follow the pairwise straight on.

[siouxnami]

There's talk on USCHO that the committee might pick Northeastern over UND for the last spot. Doesn't make sense to me, but... Women's don't always follow the pairwise straight on.

I would be shocked since the Sioux were just barely out last year to a probably inferior team.

[zonadub]

If they are out, take a long hard look at being on the nickname sanction list.

[jimdahl]

There's talk on USCHO that the committee might pick Northeastern over UND for the last spot. Doesn't make sense to me, but... Women's don't always follow the pairwise straight on.

According to the championship manual, anyway, they only use the pairwise criteria, but do it a little more subjectively than for men's...

When comparing two teams, the committee reserves the right to weight criteria differently based on relative team performance. For example, if there is only a tiny fraction of a difference two teams records vs. common opponents, and a large difference in their results vs. teams under consideration, the committee may weight results vs. teams under consideration more heavily than common opponents.

In situations where a high impact player is unavailable, the committee may consider this as part of its evaluation of the above criteria.

[CMSioux]

The NCAA is looking for every way possible to be heavy handed with UND because of the nickname issue. I would be very surprised if UND was chosen, given the decision is made behind closed doors and because the NCAA is a "Private Entity" they do not have to justify their decisions. The letter from them last week, complete with misspelled names of UND administration, shows that the NCAA wants to come down hard on UND, despite the fact it's not the U that is leading the name issue.

If the pro-nickname faction was smart they would focus all their efforts on the NCAA then they would have the backing of the entire state, all UND alumni and a growing national media that is starting to focus on the unfairness of this issue.

[IrishSiouxFan]

I also wonder how our current logo situation will play in the selection process. I applaud the supporters for trying to keep the name but their strategy leaves much to be desired. Given that the movement is being spearheaded by the Spirit Lake tribe they could have easily gone on various major media networks with claims of NCAA racism and disenfranchisement.

[Cratter]

We can talk conspiracy theory all we want, but it isn't the President of the NCAA who picks which teams get into the playoffs (the guy that originally initiated the Hostile and Abusive list is dead).

But

Duluth coach Shannon Miller, Ohio State associate AD Chris Schneider, Quinnipiac coach Rick Seeley and Ivy League AD Megan McHugo

[CMSioux]

Oh come on you don't think the NCAA is sitting in that room and has input on this.

[Siouxhockey78]

The NCAA is looking for every way possible to be heavy handed with UND because of the nickname issue. I would be very surprised if UND was chosen, given the decision is made behind closed doors and because the NCAA is a "Private Entity" they do not have to justify their decisions. The letter from them last week, complete with misspelled names of UND administration, shows that the NCAA wants to come down hard on UND, despite the fact it's not the U that is leading the name issue.

If the pro-nickname faction was smart they would focus all their efforts on the NCAA then they would have the backing of the entire state, all UND alumni and a growing national media that is starting to focus on the unfairness of this issue.

We get the crap end of the NCAA's every year. Just have to roll with the punches and just win

[brianvf]

Even if the Sioux make it in, they would potentially have a very tough matchup right out of the gate with UMN...a team that just destroyed them 6-0. They would need a huge bounce-back game in order to take them down.

Go ladies!

[Cratter]

Oh come on you don't think the NCAA is sitting in that room and has input on this.

I am sure they flew someone in for Womens Hockey.

Then off to (these are being selected today too):

DIII Men’s Ice Hockey

DII Women’s Basketball

DII Men’s Basketball

[HockeyMom]

Hoping for a birth!!! Many years in a seat believing in this program.....

[Wilbur]

BU just punched their ticket. I wonder if that means that Northeastern gets bumped down a bit for their loss to Providence.....

An hour away...

[Pony1976]

There needs to be more interleague play in the women's game. The WCHA should cut back to 24 league games. That would allow for more games against eastern teams and help improve the pairwise. But I would never expect the WCHA to do something that would make sense.

The reality seems to be a lot of teams from HE and the ECAC aren't particularly anxious to play WCHA teams for the effects it typically has on their position in national rankings formula...as flawed as that is. A look at the typical WCHA non conference records might explain their hesitance. There are a couple exceptions, who are normally willing to play WCHA teams. More non conference games would benefit the WCHA in the national rankings provided they maintain their typical winning %. Travel expense is a major issue for many women's hockey programs too where most can only swing one or two trips out of region on top of their conference travel budget.

[Cratter]

UND will play Minnesota.

[Wilbur]

The NCAA gets it right, UND makes the postseason. They've proven they can beat Minnesota, they'll have to figure out a way to erase 6-0, and keep their season alive.