Goon Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 UND is now 9th in the PWR rankings. Must be because of BSU's win this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sioux_Hab-it Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 I think if you look at the numbers I think Adam is right. He said that before Bemidji became a TUC so we are looking solid for the NCAA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farce poobah Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 The only other scenario I worry about is losing twice at the WCHA final five, especially if one of those losses were against (#45-ranked) UMD. I am not so sure we're in yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stiouxy Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 If we dont win there is a chance we wouldnt get in but i think we'll get in win or lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMDDogz Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 The only other scenario I worry about is losing twice at the WCHA final five, especially if one of those losses were against (#45-ranked) UMD. I am not so sure we're in yet. Especially if UMD were to somehow win the Final Five, and get an auto-bid... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farce poobah Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Especially if UMD were to somehow win the Final Five, and get an auto-bid... And if there's an upset in the CCHA (Northern Michigan, UAF), if Maine/UNH wins HEA and/or if there's upsets in the ECACHL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpaw Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 And if there's an upset in the CCHA (Northern Michigan, UAF), if Maine/UNH wins HEA and/or if there's upsets in the ECACHL. if UMD won the final five, they'd become a TUC and would actually help UND out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavedurtis Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 if UMD won the final five, they'd become a TUC and would actually help UND out. Yes, but lets deal with real world here. I am not a numbers crunching guru, but playing around with different scenarios: 1. If UND beats UW in the semi's and Minny in the finals they should flip 4 or possibly 5 comparisons.(UAF, Cornell, Ohio State, JBSU provided they lose once this week). Perhaps Miami if they fell on their face 2. If UNH beats BU that comparison would flip to UND. That would be five comparisons that would catapult UND to a #1 seed! Sending my favorite team to Green Bay and shipping the evil red menace east. Go Dogs over JBSU, Go Sioux over Bucky! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roper1313 Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Yes, but lets deal with real world here. I am not a numbers crunching guru, but playing around with different scenarios: 1. If UND beats UW in the semi's and Minny in the finals they should flip 4 or possibly 5 comparisons.(UAF, Cornell, Ohio State, JBSU provided they lose once this week). Perhaps Miami if they fell on their face 2. If UNH beats BU that comparison would flip to UND. That would be five comparisons that would catapult UND to a #1 seed! Sending my favorite team to Green Bay and shipping the evil red menace east. Go Dogs over JBSU, Go Sioux over Bucky! Does this mean you will be chearing for the Sioux in the Final Five championship game vs. the Gophs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavedurtis Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Does this mean you will be chearing for the Sioux in the Final Five championship game vs. the Gophs? Not exactly. I naturally would cheer for the Sioux over Bucky. To me The Red (though some of their fans are cool) are the closest representation of pure evil that we have on this planet. While I could never cheer against the Gophers I look at escaping Grand Forks as an excellent door prize. Go Sioux against Bucky! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Questions: - What would it take for DU to make the NCAA tournament after losing to UMD? - What would it take for CC to miss the NCAA tournament? - How outlandish of a scenario would it take for UND to become a #1 regional seed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stickboy1956 Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Questions: - What would it take for DU to make the NCAA tournament after losing to UMD? - What would it take for CC to miss the NCAA tournament? - How outlandish of a scenario would it take for UND to become a #1 regional seed? Go to College Hockey News and play with "You are the Committe" You are the Committee If the Sioux win the F5 and Mich. State and Harvard stumble, I think UND can get to #5 seed overall. If the Sioux could get a #5-6 overall seed, bracket integrity would force MN to another region, and perhaps send Miami to GF. Nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jk Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Not to rain on anybody's parade, but UND is not out of the woods yet. In looking at the 24 comparisons that UND currently wins, 13 are basically complete, 7 are at risk due to RPI (with 4 of those close, and the others less at risk), and 4 are at risk due to TUC. RPI: The worst-case is that UND goes 0-2, with a third-place loss to UMD. Depending on what happens with competing teams, UND could lose at least 4 comparisons. Next worse is if SCSU is the third-place opponent, and last if it's MN. TUC: Here's the basic story. If Dartmouth and Northern Michigan (especially NMU) do well, MSUM is no longer a TUC, and UND loses a 4-1 tally off its current TUC record.* That could lose UND four comparisons. Bottom line: I ran numerous YATC scenarios where NMU won the CCHA, and UND went 0-2, and in most of them UND is out of the NCAAs. I believe that UND is a lock if they win once this weekend. Likewise, I believe UND is a lock if NMU fails to win the CCHA. I'm not 100% certain of this, but I think you could view it as UND has a magic number of "one". Four chances for one good result: either a UND win or an NMU loss. * The reason NMU is so important is that they can catch UNO in RPI, displacing UNO to 16th, thereby rendering MSUM's wins over UNO to be non-quality. The lack of a bonus bump in MSUM's RPI leaves them shy of .5000, and shy of being a TUC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Deck Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 My head hurts . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 What kills me is the only truly objective ranking system out there has UND solidly in fifth. http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/krach.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianvf Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 * The reason NMU is so important is that they can catch UNO in RPI, displacing UNO to 16th, thereby rendering MSUM's wins over UNO to be non-quality. The lack of a bonus bump in MSUM's RPI leaves them shy of .5000, and shy of being a TUC. Wouldn't MSUM still have their lone victory against the Sioux count as a bonus with a quality road win? Either way...Go Sioux! Boo NMU! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jk Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Wouldn't MSUM still have their lone victory against the Sioux count as a bonus with a quality road win? Either way...Go Sioux! Boo NMU! Wins over conference opponents don't count as quality wins, even in nonconference games. The YATC results bear this out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianvf Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 The Pairwise Predictor is up and running on USCHO: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwp.php Running the scenario that jk talks about (NMU wins CCHA, and UND loses both at the F5), the lowest I could get UND to fall was a tie for 11th (although I haven't ran too many different scenarios yet). Give it a try... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmail Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Not to rain on anybody's parade, but UND is not out of the woods yet. ......... But you have purchased your regional tickets, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilles meloche Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 If the projected bracket on the uscho website stays as is, there is one glaring thing I don't like about it: That is the possibility of having four WCHA teams in the Frozen Four again this year. The way they have it set up now, North Dakota and Minnesota will eliminate one or the other therefore leaving the possibility of only three making it. What are the possibilities of sending the Gophers to Albany to play Dartmouth and then possibly the Cornell/Maine winner and sending Miami to Grand Forks to play Bemidji State and the Sioux/Michigan winner? If the NCAA is worried about attendance I'm sure Grand Forks would still pack the Ralph for UND/Michigan and Bemidji State (only an hour or so drive)/Miami game. Besides, I'm sure more Gopher hockey fans would travel to Albany than Miami of Ohio fans. This way we could still have four WCHA teams in the Frozen Four. What does everybody think? PS I know these are still projections and that the Sioux aren't guarenteed anything yet. I'm just wondering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 If the projected bracket on the uscho website stays as is, there is one glaring thing I don't like about it: That is the possibility of having four WCHA teams in the Frozen Four again this year. The way they have it set up now, North Dakota and Minnesota will eliminate one or the other therefore leaving the possibility of only three making it. What are the possibilities of sending the Gophers to Albany to play Dartmouth and then possibly the Cornell/Maine winner and sending Miami to Grand Forks to play Bemidji State and the Sioux/Michigan winner? If the NCAA is worried about attendance I'm sure Grand Forks would still pack the Ralph for UND/Michigan and Bemidji State (only an hour or so drive)/Miami game. Besides, I'm sure more Gopher hockey fans would travel to Albany than Miami of Ohio fans. This way we could still have four WCHA teams in the Frozen Four. What does everybody think? PS I know these are still projections and that the Sioux aren't guarenteed anything yet. I'm just wondering. The LAST thing the NCAA wants is a Frozen Four represented by one conference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpaw Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 i played around with the pairwise predictor... and if all of the favorites win their games in all the leagues, except UND loses to Wisco and St. Cloud, the Sioux drop to a tie at 14th with New Hampshire. That doesn't make me feel too happy. Although, it would drop them to a 4 seed and send the Gophers to Wisco most likely. I also checked and there are several instances where UND could easily be a 5 or 6 seed without a lot of upsets happening, which also could send the Gophers to a different seed and bring Miami or BU to the Ralph. Throw BC in with BU and we'll just have a big ol Beanpot rematch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mksioux Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Bottom line: I ran numerous YATC scenarios where NMU won the CCHA, and UND went 0-2, and in most of them UND is out of the NCAAs. I believe that UND is a lock if they win once this weekend. Likewise, I believe UND is a lock if NMU fails to win the CCHA. I'm not 100% certain of this, but I think you could view it as UND has a magic number of "one". Four chances for one good result: either a UND win or an NMU loss. Are you using the .03-.02-.01 bonus structure? Using that, the absolute lowest I could get UND to go was 13th. Most scenarios where NMU wins and UND goes 0-2, UND is just fine. Am I missing something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Are you using the .03-.02-.01 bonus structure? Using that, the absolute lowest I could get UND to go was 13th. Most scenarios where NMU wins and UND goes 0-2, UND is just fine. Am I missing something? I'm pretty sure the full moon over Joe Louis Arena combined with the fact that Jordan Parise ties his left skate before his right one means the Sioux can finish no lower than 14th in the PRI. Just win baby! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochsioux Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Questions: - How outlandish of a scenario would it take for UND to become a #1 regional seed? This result using a 3-2-1 bonus would result in UND and BU in a tie for 4th, UND would win with a higher RPI, thus becoming a #1 seed. Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley. Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut. Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross. CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State. CCHA Semifinal #1: Northern Michigan defeats Miami. CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan. CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Miami. ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Cornell. ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard. ECAC Championship game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth. ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Harvard. Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Maine. Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University. Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Boston College. WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth. WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin. WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State. WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota. WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State. 1 Minnesota (Mn) 29 .5833* 2 Wisconsin (Wi) 28 .5759* 3 Michigan State (MS) 26 .5640 4t [AQ] North Dakota (ND) 25 .5614 4t Boston University (BU) 25 .5570 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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