RedFrog Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 First box to check is home ice for the conference tournament. Did the math. Magic number to clinch home ice is currently 7. Combination of UND regulation wins and WMU regulation losses. Breakdown: WMU is currently in 5th place (first road position) has 22 points with a maximum of 30 points left to earn, bringing their max possible total to 52. UND sitting at 32 points would need 21 points to get to 53. *Remember, regulation wins are worth 3 points. Second box to check is the Penrose. Magic number to clinch the Penrose is 9. Combination of UND regulation wins and SCSU regulation losses. Breakdown: SCSU is currently in 2nd place and has 28 points bringing their max possible to 58. UND sitting at 32 would need 27 points (9 regulation wins) to get to 59 points. There is obviously more that can play into and reduce these numbers and the numbers may change significantly each game day, but this is a very high level maximum need look. I went outright clinch scenarios and no tie breaker/tie scenarios for simplicity. I will work to update this weekly as things play out. I want to get that first box checked! We are at least 3 weeks away from being able to hit a clinching scenario, but more likely 4 or more. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightingsioux4life Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 It is nice to be talking about checking boxes again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 A win this weekend and UND can finish no worse than sole seventh. One thing at a time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvdebbies Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Are there any scenarios where we can "lockup" a no worse than seventh finish without a win this weekend? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clark17 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 55 minutes ago, iluvdebbies said: Are there any scenarios where we can "lockup" a no worse than seventh finish without a win this weekend? iluvdebbies too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, iluvdebbies said: Are there any scenarios where we can "lockup" a no worse than seventh finish without a win this weekend? Technically yes, because we're playing Miami. Their max-poss right now is 35. We win tonight (35) and they max-poss at 32. ... we get two points tonight and we're at 34 and their max-poss is 33. But that breaks the "I went outright clinch scenarios and no ... tie scenarios for simplicity" baseline standard above. Dude, you asked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 16 hours ago, RedFrog said: First box to check is home ice for the conference tournament. Did the math. Magic number to clinch home ice is currently 7. Combination of UND regulation wins and WMU regulation losses. Breakdown: WMU is currently in 5th place (first road position) has 22 points with a maximum of 30 points left to earn, bringing their max possible total to 52. UND sitting at 32 points would need 21 points to get to 53. *Remember, regulation wins are worth 3 points. Second box to check is the Penrose. Magic number to clinch the Penrose is 9. Combination of UND regulation wins and SCSU regulation losses. Breakdown: SCSU is currently in 2nd place and has 28 points bringing their max possible to 58. UND sitting at 32 would need 27 points (9 regulation wins) to get to 59 points. There is obviously more that can play into and reduce these numbers and the numbers may change significantly each game day, but this is a very high level maximum need look. I went outright clinch scenarios and no tie breaker/tie scenarios for simplicity. I will work to update this weekly as things play out. I want to get that first box checked! We are at least 3 weeks away from being able to hit a clinching scenario, but more likely 4 or more. Nice to see @RedFrog back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Possible to guarantee ourselves a tie for 6th without going to OT both nights? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 If UNO (15) loses two so max-poss becomes 39, even if UND (32) wins two that's only 38. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedFrog Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 Made a Google Sheet. Very basic and will expand upon it as things narrow down. Still too many variables right now. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Cqw98NtmwDaV1JzRNUu1eyiGTtDZXmN4hjt3Mk0TIfA/edit?usp=sharing 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedFrog Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 20 hours ago, RedFrog said: Made a Google Sheet. Very basic and will expand upon it as things narrow down. Still too many variables right now. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Cqw98NtmwDaV1JzRNUu1eyiGTtDZXmN4hjt3Mk0TIfA/edit?usp=sharing Box #1 checked - Can not finish last in the conference. Home ice magic # is now 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jk Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Talking about winning the league and going far in the national tournament this early feels jinxy to me, but ... I do appreciate the nice little spreadsheet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedFrog Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, jk said: Talking about winning the league and going far in the national tournament this early feels jinxy to me, but ... I do appreciate the nice little spreadsheet. I'm just as superstitious, but I have found that this year's team is occupying more of my thoughts than normal and need a way to productively use that energy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightingsioux4life Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, jk said: Talking about winning the league and going far in the national tournament this early feels jinxy to me, but ... I do appreciate the nice little spreadsheet. Come on, do you really think our comments mean anything? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedFrog Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, fightingsioux4life said: Come on, do you really think our comments mean anything? Butterfly effect. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 "Games better" ... simplistic analysis, but talking games not points (because that gets complicated fast): UND up 7 pts on SCSU; SCSU has to be three games better down the stretch. Up 10-11 on CC, DU; those have to be four games better. Up 12 on WMU; they'd need to be four games better (and that would likely mean they'd have H2H tiebreaker). Up 16-17 on UNO, UMD; that's six games better. With everyone with eight games left say UND goes just 4-4, CC or DU has to go 8-0 (four better) to pass; SCSU? 7-1. If UND goes 6-2 it's over; SCSU can't be "three better" (9 and negative 1). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jk Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 CC and Western would seem to have the most control over their chances, simply because they could sweep UND and pick up two of those games in one weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightingsioux4life Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Our ideal finish would be: -Sweep WMU and Duluth at home. -Split with CC and Omaha on the road. That would likely give us the Penrose and the #1 seed in the NCHC playoffs. It should also entrench us into the top five of the PWR. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 In baseball: Magic Number = 162 games + 1 (so no tie for first) - your wins - closest chaser's losses Here: Magic (Points) Number = 72 (possible pts) + 1 (no ties) - 37 (UND pts) - 18 (SCSU points not earned) = 18 points <- this is where I previously said UND goes 6-2 and it's over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post burd Posted February 5 Popular Post Share Posted February 5 On 2/3/2024 at 10:08 AM, jk said: Talking about winning the league and going far in the national tournament this early feels jinxy to me, but ... I do appreciate the nice little spreadsheet. We all probably feel that, but another angle is important, IMO. Regardless how many of those boxes end up being checked, Sioux fans have already been treated to a lot of extremely well played hockey. We are fans because we love the game, and we have already been rewarded with a lot of pleasure. There is more to come, but falling one or more boxes short of all of them doesn't change the pleasure that comes from watching this team play. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedFrog Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 8 hours ago, The Sicatoka said: "Games better" ... simplistic analysis, but talking games not points (because that gets complicated fast): UND up 7 pts on SCSU; SCSU has to be three games better down the stretch. Up 10-11 on CC, DU; those have to be four games better. Up 12 on WMU; they'd need to be four games better (and that would likely mean they'd have H2H tiebreaker). Up 16-17 on UNO, UMD; that's six games better. With everyone with eight games left say UND goes just 4-4, CC or DU has to go 8-0 (four better) to pass; SCSU? 7-1. If UND goes 6-2 it's over; SCSU can't be "three better" (9 and negative 1). Spot on! I couldn't quite figure out how to easily put that and you nailed it. I continue to update the spreadsheet recently adding the upcoming opponents. If there is anything that you would like me to add or have a suggestion, please fire away! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Cqw98NtmwDaV1JzRNUu1eyiGTtDZXmN4hjt3Mk0TIfA/edit?usp=sharing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Feb 9/10 (just two series): UNO @ WMU SCSU @ Miami Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burd Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, The Sicatoka said: Feb 9/10 (just two series): UNO @ WMU SCSU @ Miami We're Hawks fans twice over this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Berger Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Down The Home Stretch: Who Will Win The Penrose Cup? Discuss. Dave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hockeytherapy13 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 28 minutes ago, Dave Berger said: Down The Home Stretch: Who Will Win The Penrose Cup? Discuss. Dave With our remaining schedule being more difficult than we would have expected, I feel confident we finish Top 3 but I still don't feel like number 1 is a guarantee. CC on the road will be a huge challenge for us since they are so good defensively and possibly the best goaltending in the league along with stellar coaching. Omaha is trending in the right direction right now and playing them on the road might be tougher than we would have originally thought in the earlier part of the year. If we can split with CC and UNO on the road, that will be a big deal. Regarding remaining regular season home games: Western can pump goals in left and right but as least we get to play them at home and try to neutralize their top scorers with last line change. And although UMD is having a down year, they are still coached by Sandelin and have had some decent games in the New year thus far, therefore, we may not get a clean sweep over them like we did at Amsoil (but boy would it feel incredible to go 4-0 against them this year). All things considered, if we can be healthy and get consistent production from our top 6 (who knows who will be with Berg and Gaber on the top pairing next weekend) while continuing our upward trend of having good puck management, it seems like this team could hoist the pasta trophy outright in Omaha. Making Omaha fans watch us hoist there again would also feel good because they clearly have an obsession with UND 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.