First Year of Playoff Eligiblility

[geaux_sioux]

Obviously the first few years of eligibility will be compared with NDSU's first few since both schools compare to each other. This is a breakdown of the outlook for the first year of playoff eligibility and what would define a successful comparison.

Schedule Breakdown

UND play one FBS team and play 4-5 ranked teams depending on how each team is doing at that time. The OCC games are against Portland St. and SDSSMTMT and will crush SDSSMTMT and will have a tough game against Portland St but realistically can win both.

NDSU played one FBS team and 4 ranked FCS teams earning 2 wins in those 5 games. Their OOC games were against Austin Peay and Central Con St. and won both by 30+ points.

UND have 3 games in conference where they will be heavily favored (Sac St, N Col, N Ar) and 5 very tough but all wibable games against Montana Montana St Poly E Wash and SUU. All 5 of those teams could be ranked.

NDSU went 4-4 in conference play with a 1-3 record against ranked teams.

UND will have at least 4 wins and realistically could reach 9 (8 D1) if things bounce their way and players step up. UND will probably be ranked between 25 and 20 to start the year and who knows how high they could finish with some big wins but could also be unranked if they fail.

NDSU's overall record on the year was 6-5. They started the season ranked #2 and finished unranked.

Predictions

NDSU went 6-5 and UND should get 6 wins so I expect at least a wash on overall record.

NDSU lost a close game (13-16) to Wyoming and UND could beat San Diego St. who lost some big time players from last years successful team. UND can't lose in this comparison.

NDSU went 4-4 in conference and UND has 3 VERY winable games in conference and 5 tough but winable games so I would expect at least 5 wins.

Overall I'm expecting UND to be more successful than NDSU since they have a QB unlike NDSU had, which crippled their offense. UND also have a stacked front 7 and emerging young DBs and unmatched special teams play

[Dagger]

Continuing the comparison what was NDSU's schedule compared to ours going to be in the second year? What are we up against there?

[geaux_sioux]

Continuing the comparison what was NDSU's schedule compared to ours going to be in the second year? What are we up against there?

We open up with Valpo SDSU and Montana at home in OCC play. We then have alternating home then away conference games with easier teams than we have this year (David instead of Poly and Portland St instead of Montana) 7 home games is a big deal and we also have two open dates right now in week 4 and 13.

NDSU went 3-8 opening with a loss at Iowa St and a loss to SHSt. They won a home game against Wagner College which wrapped up OCC play. In conference they went 2-6 against 3 ranked teams.

Who knows how the team will look at that point so its hard to predict a record.

[zonadub]

Most would probably agree, UND's schedule this fall is the toughest in the Big Sky except for Southern Utah. UND plays the top 4 finishers in the 2011 Big Sky plus the 2011 Great West co-champion Cal Poly.

[darell1976]

Most would probably agree, UND's schedule this fall is the toughest in the Big Sky except for Southern Utah. UND plays the top 4 finishers in the 2011 Big Sky plus the 2011 Great West co-champion Cal Poly.

Which IMO should up the attendance quite a bit.

[Bison Dan]

Why don't you compare the transition years? You have all the data and don't have to speculate. There's always time later for what you're doing.

[UNDColorado]

Why don't you compare the transition years? You have all the data and don't have to speculate. There's always time later for what you're doing.

1. Internet Troll 143 up, 49 down

A person whose sole purpose in life is to seek out people to argue with on the internet over extremely trivial issues. Such arguments can happen on blogs, Facebook, Myspace and a host of others.

The best thing you can do to fight an internet troll is to not answer..or report them.

"God, Jeromy won't stop posting about Larry's bad spelling in that conversation."

"Yeah, I know, what a Internet Troll."

[Risky]

I would imagine the trolls from the South would rather talk about the transition years because when NDSU first came out of transition things didn't go so good. I think now is the time to talk about the playoff elgible years and the future and ignore the trolls. This would totally seem to be the appropriate topic of conversation.

[Bison06]

I am of the opinion that one has to look at a program over a period of 5-10 years minimum to see the state of the program. Every program has down years and up years because of the nature of the college game(Completely new team every 4-5 years).

If UND wins 3 games this year you won't hear me coming here and talking trash about UND being a crappy program. If they win 4 the next, I still won't say anything.

Individual years mean nothing when talking about how good of a football program a school has. So talking about when NDSU had 1 or 2 down years because we had a QB that didn't pan out as well as we projected him to is irrelevant, it happens to every program. Even UND. Had some friends on the team in '02, the year after the National Championship.

[UNDColorado]

I am of the opinion that one has to look at a program over a period of 5-10 years minimum to see the state of the program. Every program has down years and up years because of the nature of the college game(Completely new team every 4-5 years).

If UND wins 3 games this year you won't hear me coming here and talking trash about UND being a crappy program. If they win 4 the next, I still won't say anything.

Individual years mean nothing when talking about how good of a football program a school has. So talking about when NDSU had 1 or 2 down years because we had a QB that didn't pan out as well as we projected him to is irrelevant, it happens to every program. Even UND. Had some friends on the team in '02, the year after the National Championship.

Those are certainly some good points because unlike pros there is a lot of natural turnover and down years will happen unless you are Alabama. Thanks for actually contributing to the conversation instead of just trolling like many others!

[geaux_sioux]

Those are certainly some good points because unlike pros there is a lot of natural turnover and down years will happen unless you are Alabama. Thanks for actually contributing to the conversation instead of just trolling like many others!

Alabama had alot of down years not too long ago.

I am of the opinion that one has to look at a program over a period of 5-10 years minimum to see the state of the program. Every program has down years and up years because of the nature of the college game(Completely new team every 4-5 years).

If UND wins 3 games this year you won't hear me coming here and talking trash about UND being a crappy program. If they win 4 the next, I still won't say anything.

Individual years mean nothing when talking about how good of a football program a school has. So talking about when NDSU had 1 or 2 down years because we had a QB that didn't pan out as well as we projected him to is irrelevant, it happens to every program. Even UND. Had some friends on the team in '02, the year after the National Championship.

The reason I'm comparing the first year out of the transition possible results is that the teams are built similarly and if not for a transfer to fall from the heavens we would have been just as held back by our QB play. I also remember that Bison team had a suspect pass d just like ours. It's the off season so it gives us something to banter about for a bit until some real news comes out

[WeAreNorthDakota]

I think its a perfect point of comparison. Both programs went through nearly identical limitations in terms of the transitions. Both teams went through the transition with a rival from our neighbor to the south. Both teams went through the transition playing in the same conference against the same conference opponents. Once we have hindsight, I think the first 4 years beyond the transition for each program will be the best measuring stick for comparison. But for now, we're entering our 1st year out of the transition and NDSU is entering its 4th(?) and this is all we have to compare.

[Bison06]

I don't mind the comparison at all, I think it makes a lot of sense. A point that I meant to elaborate on in my previous post and then didn't is how most teams' success ebbs and flows, even if it is only slightly in some cases. eg Ohio St, Alabama.

In general, good/great programs tend to build up over the course of 4-5 years, it doesn't always show on their record due to outside factors, but in general it is true. Many factors fundamental to how the game of football is played are at play here and I will speak more on this point if anyone is curious on why I think that this is the case.

So, a team will get one or two really solid recruiting classes and over the course of the next 3-4 years the team gets better and better. Ultimately this will culminate with one or two season where the expectations are very high and sometimes the program hits a high water mark at this point it time.

Ok, specifically why I think this applies to the comparison is I believe NDSU and UND are at different points in this cycle exiting the transition. When NDSU was in the final two years of the transition, they had arguably two of the best teams they had ever had. They were at the end of a cycle and naturally had a low point in the cycle following those two years. Had the natural cycle started two years earlier and ended two years earlier, we may be talking about an '06 or '07 NDSU national championship team.

For arguments sake, let's say this cycle is a 5 years cycle, year 1 being expected to be your worst year and year 5 being expected to be your best. NDSU started their eligibility in year 1, I believe UND is starting their eligibility later in this cycle. Maybe year 2 or 3.

Please don't think I am making excuses for the NDSU program those first two years of eligibility, because I am not. They did not get the job done, period. But there is a cycle that takes place in college football due to recruiting classes and when a team has success there tends to be a let down the following few years. I am hoping NDSU is able to beat the odds this year and repeat the success they had last year.

Let me know what you think.

[geaux_sioux]

I don't mind the comparison at all, I think it makes a lot of sense. A point that I meant to elaborate on in my previous post and then didn't is how most teams' success ebbs and flows, even if it is only slightly in some cases. eg Ohio St, Alabama.

In general, good/great programs tend to build up over the course of 4-5 years, it doesn't always show on their record due to outside factors, but in general it is true. Many factors fundamental to how the game of football is played are at play here and I will speak more on this point if anyone is curious on why I think that this is the case.

So, a team will get one or two really solid recruiting classes and over the course of the next 3-4 years the team gets better and better. Ultimately this will culminate with one or two season where the expectations are very high and sometimes the program hits a high water mark at this point it time.

Ok, specifically why I think this applies to the comparison is I believe NDSU and UND are at different points in this cycle exiting the transition. When NDSU was in the final two years of the transition, they had arguably two of the best teams they had ever had. They were at the end of a cycle and naturally had a low point in the cycle following those two years. Had the natural cycle started two years earlier and ended two years earlier, we may be talking about an '06 or '07 NDSU national championship team.

For arguments sake, let's say this cycle is a 5 years cycle, year 1 being expected to be your worst year and year 5 being expected to be your best. NDSU started their eligibility in year 1, I believe UND is starting their eligibility later in this cycle. Maybe year 2 or 3.

Please don't think I am making excuses for the NDSU program those first two years of eligibility, because I am not. They did not get the job done, period. But there is a cycle that takes place in college football due to recruiting classes and when a team has success there tends to be a let down the following few years. I am hoping NDSU is able to beat the odds this year and repeat the success they had last year.

Let me know what you think.

I've made that same point on bville about how NDSU peaked way too soon since it was during transition and they couldn't be in the playoffs. Obviously it got !@#$ on but I feel the same way as you on that.

[petey23]

I don't mind the comparison at all, I think it makes a lot of sense. A point that I meant to elaborate on in my previous post and then didn't is how most teams' success ebbs and flows, even if it is only slightly in some cases. eg Ohio St, Alabama.

In general, good/great programs tend to build up over the course of 4-5 years, it doesn't always show on their record due to outside factors, but in general it is true. Many factors fundamental to how the game of football is played are at play here and I will speak more on this point if anyone is curious on why I think that this is the case.

So, a team will get one or two really solid recruiting classes and over the course of the next 3-4 years the team gets better and better. Ultimately this will culminate with one or two season where the expectations are very high and sometimes the program hits a high water mark at this point it time.

Ok, specifically why I think this applies to the comparison is I believe NDSU and UND are at different points in this cycle exiting the transition. When NDSU was in the final two years of the transition, they had arguably two of the best teams they had ever had. They were at the end of a cycle and naturally had a low point in the cycle following those two years. Had the natural cycle started two years earlier and ended two years earlier, we may be talking about an '06 or '07 NDSU national championship team.

For arguments sake, let's say this cycle is a 5 years cycle, year 1 being expected to be your worst year and year 5 being expected to be your best. NDSU started their eligibility in year 1, I believe UND is starting their eligibility later in this cycle. Maybe year 2 or 3.

Please don't think I am making excuses for the NDSU program those first two years of eligibility, because I am not. They did not get the job done, period. But there is a cycle that takes place in college football due to recruiting classes and when a team has success there tends to be a let down the following few years. I am hoping NDSU is able to beat the odds this year and repeat the success they had last year.

Let me know what you think.

I will not be surprised at all if we see a National Title game rematch.

[Bison Dan]

I've made that same point on bville about how NDSU peaked way too soon since it was during transition and they couldn't be in the playoffs. Obviously it got !@#$ on but I feel the same way as you on that.

So UND is holding back as to not peak too soon during their transition? Good to know.

[UNDColorado]

So UND is holding back as to not peak too soon during their transition? Good to know.

That's not what he said and you know it. Please see above definition of internet troll.

[WeAreNorthDakota]

So UND is holding back as to not peak too soon during their transition? Good to know.

No, he's saying NDSU had a peak in the cycle that had unfortunate timing, as they were ineligible for the FCS playoffs. Had UND happened to pull off wins against Fresno St. and Cal Poly this past season, you could say that UND would've had a similar unfortunately timed peak, a 10-1 season that would lead to not making the playoffs due to transitional eligibiltiy. Now, of course UND fans would've been ecstatic with that result just like NDSU fans were in 06-07 and 07-08. But it doesn't change the fact that it's unfortunate timing.

[bincitysioux]

NDSU had a nice transition. North Dakota's was painful to watch at times. But North Dakota finished their transition pretty strongly, in multiple sports. Football, volleyball, Men's basketball, and Women's basketball all improved and won conference titles in their last season of transition. The entire point of the transition is to build the programs to the next level. I'm confident that North Dakota did that.