Jump to content
SiouxSports.com Forum

PWR predictions


jimdahl

Recommended Posts

I'm not an expert like Jim, but it looks like UND will be a 1 if they win on Saturday and either a 2 or 3 if they lose.

Obviously, a lot can happen tomorrow. But if the Sioux win, it looks like they are a 1 seed and stay close to home. If they lose, I would bet that they get shipped out east depending how the other games pan out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would guess that is the most probable result now. Not sure if I would want to play the Gophers again so quickly after tonight's result.

I would rather beat them in the regionals instead of the F5... :)

True, but lets just beat them whenever we run into them...there's no guarantee the Sioux or Gofers would win their first regional games anyway...
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am not doing the stochastic modeling, but... I don't think we can flip BC or Mich, but a win likely leaves us as #3 overall. That would put us as the #1 in West with Minnesota gaurenteed to be there as a 2 or 3 seed. If the Sioux lose, I have no idea, but probably a 2 seed likely not in Minnesota.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am not doing the stochastic modeling, but... I don't think we can flip BC or Mich, but a win likely leaves us as #3 overall. That would put us as the #1 in West with Minnesota gaurenteed to be there as a 2 or 3 seed. If the Sioux lose, I have no idea, but probably a 2 seed likely not in Minnesota.

So in summary, win tonight we are number one seed in St Paul regional, lose and go to Green Bay Regional?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Sioux could lose tonight and still get a #1 seed.

For that to happen we would need these outcomes:

Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Maine.

ECAC Championship game: Harvard defeats Union.

ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Colgate.

CCHA Championship game: Western Michigan defeats Michigan.

CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Bowling Green.

Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.

Denver would be 3 and UND 4.

If UND wins tonight with the results the same in the other conferences then UND would be 3 and Denver would fall all the way to 11.

Crazy year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Say for instance the Sioux win tonight and finish #4 and the Gophers finish #8 or #9. Would they really send the Sioux to St. Paul? Because if brackets match up, then #4 should play #5 if they both win first game and #1 (BC) should play #8/#9 winner. It seems to me like you lose a lot of bracket integrity by placing the #4 team with the #8/#9 teams. And hasn't the Committee harped on bracket integrity the past few years where the overall #1 seed should play the #8/#9 winner. Last year was pure bracket integrity but if the Sioux go to St. Paul in this scenario, you lose bracket integrity across the spectrum.

I haven't heard this scenario discussed yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Say for instance the Sioux win tonight and finish #4 and the Gophers finish #8 or #9. Would they really send the Sioux to St. Paul? Because if brackets match up, then #4 should play #5 if they both win first game and #1 (BC) should play #8/#9 winner. It seems to me like you lose a lot of bracket integrity by placing the #4 team with the #8/#9 teams. And hasn't the Committee harped on bracket integrity the past few years where the overall #1 seed should play the #8/#9 winner. Last year was pure bracket integrity but if the Sioux go to St. Paul in this scenario, you lose bracket integrity across the spectrum.

I haven't heard this scenario discussed yet.

I was thinking the same exact thing. I think there's a chance they would move #2 Michigan to St. Paul for more bracket integrity. I think we could see UND & Denver battling it out in Green Bay again, even if the Sioux win tonight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

my thought is they would send und to st. paul if they are the fourth seed as they wouyld be the lowest 1 seed and if you have a rule that a host school has to play at that site, bracket integrety sometimes will have to go out the window. bc and michigan would prob be protected from playing in st paul being they are two highest seeds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well the they woul really want to be making money they would put Mn and ND in different brackets. Mn can fill the X at least for one game. ( okay that was cheap and I shouldn't have said it). But I think UND can do a good job of filling any of the arenas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Sioux could lose tonight and still get a #1 seed.

For that to happen we would need these outcomes:

Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Maine.

ECAC Championship game: Harvard defeats Union.

ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Colgate.

CCHA Championship game: Western Michigan defeats Michigan.

CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Bowling Green.

Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.

Denver would be 3 and UND 4.

If UND wins tonight with the results the same in the other conferences then UND would be 3 and Denver would fall all the way to 11.

Crazy year.

Miami defeats Bowling Green 4-1 that is one down for the good guys.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Question for Jim Dahl, or perhaps other PWR experts. I'm not that familiar with the PWR, I generally wait until selection Sunday to find things out.

That said, I'm kind of curious....how does a team go from perhaps not making the tournament, and within 7 games land a #1 seed? If I recall, going into the Mankato series the Sioux could conceivably be left out of the tournament. They needed to sweep Mankato and their first round playoff series to give themselves a comfortable chance, and then 3 games later they move from there to a #1 seed.

I'm not looking for a highly technical explanation, but a more general one based on how the PWR works. It seems like it should be much more difficult than that (not saying it's not difficult to win those last 7 games, especially the Final Five).

Anyway, happy to learn...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...