Big A HG Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 Jim, I also heard recently that any team with an RPI above .500(?) is considered a TUC now when calculating your winning percentage against TUC teams for individual comparisons. There are still only 25 teams that are on the PWR rankings, but, like mentioned above, any team with the RPI above .500 counts towards your TUC win percentage. Maybe you can confirm that. Quote
jimdahl Posted January 20, 2011 Author Posted January 20, 2011 Jim, I also heard recently that any team with an RPI above .500(?) is considered a TUC now when calculating your winning percentage against TUC teams for individual comparisons. There are still only 25 teams that are on the PWR rankings, but, like mentioned above, any team with the RPI above .500 counts towards your TUC win percentage. Maybe you can confirm that. Yeah, that's the tweak that CHN broke a couple days ago. I hit briefly on the biggest impacts for UND here:: * The new TUCs gave UND an additional 4-0-1 in their vs. TUCs winning percentage, quite helpful * The new TUCs moved a lot of teams like Yale and Maine closer to meeting the threshold of 10 games vs TUCs, but that seems not to matter anymore Quote
The Whistler Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 Here's my take: the Pairwise only matters on the day the tournament field is chosen and seeded. It has absolutely no bearing on any other day of the year. I suppose one could argue that expanding the TUCs might influence how a team schedules non-conference opponents, but aside from that the Pairwise "rules" have nothing to do with actually playing hockey. I agree and I'll also note that most of the concerns we talk about during the year have worked themselves out by the day that the PWR actually counts. The PWR sucks because it makes no sense on how they pick their criteria, but it does work reasonably well. Quote
kvinbe Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 The PWR change doesn't effect the Sioux for now, but it is already hurting some of the other WCHA schools. Seems to me that it will definitely hurt conferences like the WCHA because of the strength of schedule issue. There will be more teams that are sub-.500 in strong conferences, even though they're better than some schools above .500 in weak conferences. This is already apparent in the shuffling that immediately occurred. It's especially apparent when you look at the PWR in comparison to the Krach. It increases the odds that the better conferences will have good teams that are left out because they've been pummeled by even better teams. I didn't read all the comments, so I may be missing something, but this is how I interpret the effect initially. Definitely think it was a bonehead move to change the TUC halfway through the season. In my humble opinion, strength of schedule should definitely remain a significant factor. Quote
The Whistler Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 In my humble opinion, strength of schedule should definitely remain a significant factor. Absolutely. The best prediction of the strength of a team is how well they've done against good teams, not that they beat the Weak Sister of the ECAC*. *I'm sure they are a fine school for English Majors. Quote
siouxu31 Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 The PWR change doesn't effect the Sioux for now, but it is already hurting some of the other WCHA schools. Seems to me that it will definitely hurt conferences like the WCHA because of the strength of schedule issue. There will be more teams that are sub-.500 in strong conferences, even though they're better than some schools above .500 in weak conferences. This is already apparent in the shuffling that immediately occurred. It's especially apparent when you look at the PWR in comparison to the Krach. It increases the odds that the better conferences will have good teams that are left out because they've been pummeled by even better teams. I didn't read all the comments, so I may be missing something, but this is how I interpret the effect initially. Definitely think it was a bonehead move to change the TUC halfway through the season. In my humble opinion, strength of schedule should definitely remain a significant factor. SOS will always remain a significant factor since 75% of a team's RPI is based off of their strength of schedule. Quote
Goon Posted January 20, 2011 Posted January 20, 2011 SOS will always remain a significant factor since 75% of a team's RPI is based off of their strength of schedule. So this formula would favor the WCHA then? Quote
yzerman19 Posted January 23, 2011 Posted January 23, 2011 So we split with a decently ranked Omaha team and Duluth beats up Michigan Tech, and they leapfrog us in the PWR due to the RPI needing to be adjusted...weak... Quote
Blackheart Posted January 23, 2011 Posted January 23, 2011 So we split with a decently ranked Omaha team and Duluth beats up Michigan Tech, and they leapfrog us in the PWR due to the RPI needing to be adjusted...weak... True...as long as we stay in top 4 I don't care... Quote
Runninwiththedogs Posted January 23, 2011 Posted January 23, 2011 So we split with a decently ranked Omaha team and Duluth beats up Michigan Tech, and they leapfrog us in the PWR due to the RPI needing to be adjusted...weak... You'll play Tech and your RPI will be adjusted too, don't cry. Quote
fargosioux Posted January 23, 2011 Posted January 23, 2011 True...as long as we stay in top 4 I don't care... Call me greedy, but I'm really hoping we don't end up a low #1 seed and get sent out east. I'm hoping for a #1 or #2 finish and end up in Green Bay, so Sioux fans can fill up that arena! Quote
Blackheart Posted January 23, 2011 Posted January 23, 2011 Call me greedy, but I'm really hoping we don't end up a low #1 seed and get sent out east. I'm hoping for a #1 or #2 finish and end up in Green Bay, so Sioux fans can fill up that arena! I just hope we are playing good hockey at the end of the year...the rest of it will sort itself out... Quote
Big A HG Posted January 24, 2011 Posted January 24, 2011 Call me greedy, but I'm really hoping we don't end up a low #1 seed and get sent out east. I'm hoping for a #1 or #2 finish and end up in Green Bay, so Sioux fans can fill up that arena! Well, as long as Yale is #1 overall, that will lockup one of those two eastern regionals. I'd say chances are pretty good UND doesn't go farther than Green Bay or St. Louis. If Duluth stays ahead of us in the PWR, they'll get Green Bay for sure, though, which is disappointing. Quote
stickboy1956 Posted January 24, 2011 Posted January 24, 2011 Well, as long as Yale is #1 overall, that will lockup one of those two eastern regionals. I'd say chances are pretty good UND doesn't go farther than Green Bay or St. Louis. If Duluth stays ahead of us in the PWR, they'll get Green Bay for sure, though, which is disappointing. NH is possibility as well - if Yale stays #1, NH could not be seeded 8/9, since both Yale and NH are hosts. Quote
yzerman19 Posted January 26, 2011 Posted January 26, 2011 It is really, really, really early, but here is Yzerman 19's Jan 26, 2011 Bracketology: Straight seeding: Yale vs RIT(first place in Atlantic) Notre Dame vs Rensselaer UMD vs Dartmouth UNH vs Wisconsin UND vs UNO Merrimack vs Michigan DU vs Union Western MI vs BC Avoiding intraconference first round matchups (only UND and UNO, UNO has to go to Yale, because the other 3 #1s are WCHA. RIT plays UMD due to UMD being the higher seed. Yale might complain, but playing UNO in the first round will certainly answer questions regarding schedule): East Regional (Bridgeport) Yale vs UNO Notre Dame vs Rensselaer UMD vs RIT (Manchester) UNH vs Wisconsin UND vs Dartmouth (Green Bay) Merrimack vs Michigan DU vs Union (St Louis) Western MI vs BC Quote
Goon Posted January 27, 2011 Posted January 27, 2011 Avoiding intraconference first round matchups (only UND and UNO, UNO has to go to Yale, because the other 3 #1s are WCHA. RIT plays UMD due to UMD being the higher seed. Yale might complain, but playing UNO in the first round will certainly answer questions regarding schedule ): That is something I would like to see. That would be a region of death. Quote
yzerman19 Posted January 27, 2011 Posted January 27, 2011 If the season ended today we'd get to hear Red complain about playing us (again) we'd get to hear Yale complain about bracket integrity we'd get to hear that fat guy on ESPNU talk about how great UNH is...and in the end, I would see a Frozen Four that looks like this: UNO, UNH, UND, BC WCHA and Hockey East flexing their muscles yet again, but we owe all three of these teams: UNH for two years ago, BC for everything and UNO for hanging 8 on us in our barn Again...way too early to prognosticate, but I'm doing it anyway for conjecture. Quote
Fighting Sioux 23 Posted January 27, 2011 Posted January 27, 2011 If the season ended today we'd get to hear Red complain about playing us (again) we'd get to hear Yale complain about bracket integrity we'd get to hear that fat guy on ESPNU talk about how great UNH is...and in the end, I would see a Frozen Four that looks like this: UNO, UNH, UND, BC WCHA and Hockey East flexing their muscles yet again, but we owe all three of these teams: UNH for two years ago, BC for everything and UNO for hanging 8 on us in our barn Again...way too early to prognosticate, but I'm doing it anyway for conjecture. In the brackets that you listed earlier, you'd switch Merrimack and UNH, that way you could have both Duluth and Wisconsin in the Green Bay regional. I'd also switch the Sioux and DU so that the Sioux would play in St. Louis w/DU going to Manchester. In other words, a bracket like this: Bridgeport: Yale vs UNO Notre Dame vs RPI Manchester: Denver vs Dartmouth Michigan vs New Hampshire Green Bay: Duluth vs Atlantic Hockey Champion Wisconsin vs Merrimack St. Louis: North Dakota vs Union BC vs Western Michigan There is no way they are going to keep Wisconsin out of Green Bay. Quote
yzerman19 Posted January 27, 2011 Posted January 27, 2011 It is quite possible that Wisconsin would get moved for attendance, but the committee has stated they want to preserve bracket integrity above all. I don't think they'll do a wholesale swap, maybe just Michigan and Wisconsin. Quote
Fighting Sioux 23 Posted January 27, 2011 Posted January 27, 2011 It is quite possible that Wisconsin would get moved for attendance, but the committee has stated they want to preserve bracket integrity above all. I don't think they'll do a wholesale swap, maybe just Michigan and Wisconsin. Duluth would likely go to Green Bay as well, as they are within the 400 mile radius so they wouldn't have to fly. North Dakota is a flight wherever, so they are a better candidate for St. Louis. Also, last year there was no such thing as bracket integrity. UND was the #1 2 seed and Yale was the #1 3 seed. Quote
Runninwiththedogs Posted January 27, 2011 Posted January 27, 2011 Duluth would likely go to Green Bay as well, as they are within the 400 mile radius so they wouldn't have to fly. North Dakota is a flight wherever, so they are a better candidate for St. Louis. Also, last year there was no such thing as bracket integrity. UND was the #1 2 seed and Yale was the #1 3 seed. I'm trying not to speculate because I'm trying not to get excited about being a #1 seed after the past few years, but IN THE EVENT THAT tUMD was a #1 seed I don't see them going to Manchester, even if UND flips them (which will probably happen). I don't even see them going to Manchester if DU flips them too (which will also probably happen.) There is no need to place DU as close to Denver as they can get, none of their fans will go. DU has one of the worst-traveling fanbases in college hockey. Quote
Goon Posted January 27, 2011 Posted January 27, 2011 I'm trying not to speculate because I'm trying not to get excited about being a #1 seed after the past few years, but IN THE EVENT THAT tUMD was a #1 seed I don't see them going to Manchester, even if UND flips them (which will probably happen). I don't even see them going to Manchester if DU flips them too (which will also probably happen.) There is no need to place DU as close to Denver as they can get, none of their fans will go. DU has one of the worst-traveling fanbases in college hockey. I suggest we send Denver out east then... Quote
Runninwiththedogs Posted January 27, 2011 Posted January 27, 2011 I suggest we send Denver out east then... That was implied in my statement, but yeah, I agree. Quote
farce poobah Posted January 27, 2011 Posted January 27, 2011 In the brackets that you listed earlier, you'd switch Merrimack and UNH, that way you could have both Duluth and Wisconsin in the Green Bay regional. I'd also switch the Sioux and DU so that the Sioux would play in St. Louis w/DU going to Manchester. In other words, a bracket like this: Bridgeport: Yale vs UNO Notre Dame vs RPI Manchester: Denver vs Dartmouth Michigan vs New Hampshire Green Bay: Duluth vs Atlantic Hockey Champion Wisconsin vs Merrimack St. Louis: North Dakota vs Union BC vs Western Michigan There is no way they are going to keep Wisconsin out of Green Bay. These brackets make sense, as far as where the WCHA teams are likely to go. I think the committee will look at the remaining seedings and make some swaps ... because St Louis is an attendance nightmare. Look for Michigan or Notre Dame to get sent to St Louis along with UND. They will keep the seeding bands, but as we saw last year, the best #2 seed doesn't always get the lowest #3. In the above brackets, that could be achieved by swapping BC and Notre Dame. Or by placing Michigan in St Louis and moving Notre Dame to Manchester. (Michigan fanbase travels better than Notre Dame.) I also think the committee would look for a way to place UNO in St Louis. But I don't see them matching them with another WCHA #1 seed in the first round. That taboo seems almost sacred. But if UNO climbs to a #3, look for them to be in St Louis. Barring UND falling to a #3 seed, I think we're going to St Louis. (Don't worry about rushing out to buy tickets, however.) Quote
jimdahl Posted January 27, 2011 Author Posted January 27, 2011 It was mentioned a few weeks/pages back, but one PWR aspect of this weekend's series worth remembering- CC is the only common opponent scheduled between Yale and UND this year. Yale won the game, for a 1.000 COP record vs. UND. If UND does anything other than sweep CC, to also achieve a 1.000 COP record, Yale will take the COP comparison with UND. That would give Yale a 3-0 comparison lead, meaning that even if UND went on to take RPI it wouldn't be enough to win the comparison anymore. If UND sweeps CC, COP will be a wash for that comparison and UND will only need to take RPI to win the comparison with Yale. Quote
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