fargosioux Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I believe we would gain another comparison this weekend by flipping Merrimack if they lose once this weekend to Maine (assuming we swept our series). I'm not seeing much of a possibility of Yale losing any comparisons, so I assume the best we can do is to remain at #2 in the PWR after this weekend. Jim or somebody else with more PWR knowledge than me can maybe confirm this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 as long as we win our rpi will stay the same or rise a little bit. if a win against say tech would drop our rpi that game would not be counted in rpi. on the other hand any loss in the next 4 games will drop our rpi big time. Siouxweet is exactly right. To find out yourself in the future, the "future RPI" chart in the upper right of this page is what would happen to UND's unadjusted RPI if UND's remaining 4 games were the only ones played: UND RPI details There are two ways those numbers could be a little off: 1) assuming our RPI stays high enough (i.e. don't lose to Bemidji St), the wins over MTech will likely be thrown out, resulting in an adjusted RPI that's slightly higher than the adjusted RPI; 2) our past and future opponents will play games, and their performance will tweak the SOS portion a little bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 I wasted most of my PWR-earmarked free time this week on Minnesota and Wisconsin, but did run the numbers for UND. It's not interesting, in that UND is pretty unlikely to move. But, it's pretty cool in that I've never seen it so not matter whether we sweep or tie (note that coming out #4 is just slightly more likely with a tie than a sweep). If Yale got swept, there would be over a 75% chance of them dropping. A win over Cornell (regardless of Colgate outcome) seems to guarantee they stay #1, while a win over Colgate gives them something like a 95% chance of staying #1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runninwiththedogs Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I wasted most of my PWR-earmarked free time this week on Minnesota and Wisconsin, but did run the numbers for UND. It's not interesting, in that UND is pretty unlikely to move. But, it's pretty cool in that I've never seen it so not matter whether we sweep or tie (note that coming out #4 is just slightly more likely with a tie than a sweep). If Yale got swept, there would be over a 75% chance of them dropping. A win over Cornell (regardless of Colgate outcome) seems to guarantee they stay #1, while a win over Colgate gives them something like a 95% chance of staying #1. At first I didn't even SEE the tie possibility on the chart. That is crazy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 just how bad is tech? if things go as normal this weekend, even if tech loses to us next weekend their RPI will go up. that my friends is bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjchewy Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Interesting to note, I was just taking a look at the USCHO Pairwise and if I looked at the rankings correctly we are the only team to have played every game against a TUC team this year. Of course that will change this weekend against MTU, but still impressive to note. I apologize if this has been mentioned somewhere else, I just found it and thought it was worth the discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runninwiththedogs Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Interesting to note, I was just taking a look at the USCHO Pairwise and if I looked at the rankings correctly we are the only team to have played every game against a TUC team this year. Of course that will change this weekend against MTU, but still impressive to note. I apologize if this has been mentioned somewhere else, I just found it and thought it was worth the discussion. I hadn't seen it anywhere, it's an interesting statistic. However, you have 3 opponents who would not be a TUC under the "top 25" definition from previous years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeftyZL Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 I hadn't seen it anywhere, it's an interesting statistic. However, you have 3 opponents who would not be a TUC under the "top 25" definition from previous years. How many would Duluth have not be a TUC? You play with the rules at the present time. Not the past or the future. Silly comment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runninwiththedogs Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 How many would Duluth have not be a TUC? You play with the rules at the present time. Not the past or the future. Silly comment. It's a factual comment. What exactly are you asking in your first sentence? It doesn't make sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 Another boring weekend for the Sioux on the PWR front (though winning is still desirable). I also did similar outlooks for Minnesota, Wisconsin, St. Cloud, Nebraska-Omaha, Minnesota-Duluth, and Denver in a tour of the WCHA blog post. Go Beavers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Another boring weekend for the Sioux on the PWR front (though winning is still desirable). I also did similar outlooks for Minnesota, Wisconsin, St. Cloud, Nebraska-Omaha, Minnesota-Duluth, and Denver in a tour of the WCHA blog post. Go Beavers! no CC? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fargosioux Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Looks like the Bemidji loss dropped us down to #3 in the PWR behind BC (for now). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Looks like the Bemidji loss dropped us down to #3 in the PWR behind BC (for now). and robert morris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ihatethegophers Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Anyone know what Bemidji needs to do to become a tuc again? If they win 2/3 vs UNO and then lose the first game in St Paul are they a tuc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runninwiththedogs Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Any other nerds out there ever wonder what a PWR would look like if all 58 teams were compared? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 here's an interesting question. say we end up the season ranked 2 in the pairwise and the gophers or scsu sneek in as the 15th ranked team in the pairwise and there are 5 teams in the tournament from the wcha. would the committee make us play the wcha opponent in the first round as once their are five or more teams they don't have to avoid a first round match-up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cratter Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 here's an interesting question. say we end up the season ranked 2 in the pairwise and the gophers or scsu sneek in as the 15th ranked team in the pairwise and there are 5 teams in the tournament from the wcha. would the committee make us play the wcha opponent in the first round as once their are five or more teams they don't have to avoid a first round match-up? They try to avoid conference matchups, but it could happen. It would be sweet and easy to beat the gophers again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 They try to avoid conference matchups, but it could happen. It would be sweet and easy to beat the gophers again. Only way I can see it happening is if you had two #1 or two #2 seeds and three #4 or three #3 seeds or vice versa. They would move within the global tiering bands (1-4) to avoid intraconference, but they won't have a #1 seed play a #3 seed in the first round just to avoid an intraconference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 From what I have seen from the Gophers I don't think I would fear a Sioux match up against them. They weren't all that good against BSU this past weekend. Defensively they were coughing the puck up all weekend long... I still don't think either team SCSU or UMN gets in... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianvf Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 here's an interesting question. say we end up the season ranked 2 in the pairwise and the gophers or scsu sneek in as the 15th ranked team in the pairwise and there are 5 teams in the tournament from the wcha. would the committee make us play the wcha opponent in the first round as once their are five or more teams they don't have to avoid a first round match-up? It looks like at most there would be two #1 WCHA seeds and at most two #4 WCHA seeds. If that happens, I doubt the committee would match up them up in the first round. I'd guess that Yale and BC would get them in the first round, unless they really want Yale to play the AHA champ. It looks like four or five teams would be the WCHA number this year (four if the season ended today). And they are spread out decently... UND #1 seed DU & UNO #2 seeds UMD #3 seed And then the potential for either CC/UMN/SCSU to be a #4 seed. Of course, a lot can change in a couple weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Any other nerds out there ever wonder what a PWR would look like if all 58 teams were compared? <div>Drop the TUC criterion (it would just be capturing win/loss, which is already in RPI) so you're left with RPI, COP, and H2H and you get something like this:</div> <table style="width: 250px"> <tr><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Comparisons<br>Won</th> <th>Real PWR Rank</th> </tr> <tr><td>T1</td><td>UND</td><td>56</td> <td>3</td> </tr> <tr><td>T1</td><td>Yale</td><td>56</td> <td>1</td> </tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Boston College</td><td>55</td> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Michigan</td><td>53</td> <td>4</td> </tr> <tr><td>T5</td><td>Denver</td><td>52</td> <td>5</td> </tr> <tr><td>T5</td><td>Union</td><td>52</td> <td>6</td> </tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td>51</td> <td>10</td> </tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Miami</td><td>50</td> <td>9</td> </tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>UMD</td><td>49</td> <td>11</td> </tr> <tr><td>10</td><td>Merrimack</td><td>48</td> <td>8</td> </tr> <tr><td>T11</td><td>New Hampshire</td><td>46</td> <td>12</td> </tr> <tr><td>T11</td><td>Nebraska-Omaha</td><td>46</td> <td>7</td> </tr> <tr><td>T13</td><td>Maine</td><td>44</td> <td>18</td> </tr> <tr><td>T13</td><td>Boston University</td><td>44</td> <td>16</td> </tr> <tr><td>T15</td><td>Western Michigan</td><td>43</td> <td>14</td> </tr> <tr><td>T15</td><td>Dartmouth</td><td>43</td> <td>13</td> </tr> <tr><td>17</td><td>UMN</td><td>41</td> <td>19</td> </tr> <tr><td>18</td><td>UW</td><td>40</td> <td>23</td> </tr> <tr><td>19</td><td>CC</td><td>39</td> <td>15</td> </tr> <tr><td>20</td><td>Rensselaer</td><td>39</td> <td>17</td> </tr> <tr><td>T21</td><td>Alaska</td><td>37</td> <td>21</td> </tr> <tr><td>T21</td><td>SCSU</td><td>37</td> <td>20</td> </tr> <tr><td>23</td><td>AA</td><td>35</td> <td>24</td> </tr> <tr><td>24</td><td>Princeton</td><td>34</td> <td>26</td> </tr> <tr><td>25</td><td>Ferris State</td><td>33</td> <td>22</td> </tr> <tr><td>26</td><td>RIT</td><td>31</td> <td>27</td> </tr> <tr><td>27</td><td>Quinnipiac</td><td>30</td> <td>25</td> </tr> <tr><td>28</td><td>Mankato</td><td>30</td> <td>28</td> </tr> <tr><td>29</td><td>Cornell</td><td>29</td> <td>29</td> </tr> <tr><td>30</td><td>Air Force</td><td>28</td> <td>30</td> </tr> <tr><td>T31</td><td>Robert Morris</td><td>27</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>T31</td><td>Bemidji State</td><td>27</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>33</td><td>Niagara</td><td>25</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>34</td><td>Michigan State</td><td>24</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>35</td><td>Lake Superior</td><td>24</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>36</td><td>Northern Michigan</td><td>21</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>37</td><td>Northeastern</td><td>21</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>38</td><td>Ohio State</td><td>20</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>39</td><td>Clarkson</td><td>19</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>40</td><td>Brown</td><td>18</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>41</td><td>Mercyhurst</td><td>17</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>T42</td><td>St. Lawrence</td><td>15</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>T42</td><td>Holy Cross</td><td>15</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>44</td><td>Vermont</td><td>14</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>45</td><td>Providence</td><td>13</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>46</td><td>Harvard</td><td>13</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>47</td><td>Canisius</td><td>12</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>T48</td><td>Connecticut</td><td>10</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>T48</td><td>Bowling Green</td><td>10</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>50</td><td>Massachusetts</td><td>8</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>51</td><td>Colgate</td><td>8</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>52</td><td>Bentley</td><td>6</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>53</td><td>Army</td><td>5</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>54</td><td>MTech</td><td>4</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>55</td><td>Mass.-Lowell</td><td>3</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>56</td><td>Sacred Heart</td><td>2</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>57</td><td>American Int'l</td><td>1</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr><td>58</td><td>Alabama-Huntsville</td><td>0</td> <td> </td> </tr> </table> By dropping TUC, UND would take the comparisons to BC and Yale because both would become 1-1 and UND would have the RPI tie-breaker. UND's only lost comparison would be Maine, which Maine would win 2-1 (because of H2H). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Looks like the Bemidji loss dropped us down to #3 in the PWR behind BC (for now). the only way bemidji becomes a TUC again is to beat uno and advance to the final five, msum needs to win one against denver to remain a TUC as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runninwiththedogs Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Awesome, thanks Jim! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedFrog Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 Hey Jim...I was just wondering why you removed the section of the PWR that showed what the last game was that was entered, and what game wasn't entered yet? I am one that likes to constantly check the PWR this time of year, especially on Fri/Sat nights. it's hard to know which games have been entered. Thank you for all you do!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackheart Posted March 12, 2011 Share Posted March 12, 2011 After tonite's loss to Anchorage, the Gofs find themselves in a 4 way tie for 16th in the Pairwise with Wisconsin, Western Michigan, and Maine! Go Seawolves! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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