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The Second Half Surge: Math or Myth


Dave Berger

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To add a little more info, the last two years under Blais our record was:

2002-3 25-13-5 (started out 18-1-1)

2003-4 30-8-3 (started out 18-2-2)

So the prior two years to Hakstol we got off to blazing starts but either faltered down the stretch or got upset in the NCAA regional.

Under Hakstol:

2004-5 25-15-5 prior to 02/26/2005 16-13-3, after 9-2-2

2005-6 29-16-1 prior to 01/14/2006 14-10-1, after 15-6-0

2006-7 24-14-5 prior to 12/29/2006 7-10-1, after 17-4-4

2007-8 28-11-4 prior to 01/05/2008 9-8-1, after 19-3-3

2008-9 18-11-3 prior to 01/02/2009 9-10-1, after 9-1-2

So these last 3 seasons we have been around .500 near year-end (23-28-3), then rip it up the rest of the season (45-8-9).

The first two seasons we didn't start out quite as bad, but it also took longer to put together a good streak, especially the 2004-5 season. The reason we may think of all 5 seasons as the same pattern has to due with season ending surge regardless of when it really started, although these last 3 seasons have been very similar.

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I kind of like the second half surge tradition. My main concern (and I hope it isn't this year) is that one fall the sioux will dig themselves into a hole so deep that even an amazing second half won't get them back into the tourney.

yes this year has been a bit different from the 4 others because this year we actually wen 3 or 4 games under .500 creating a deeper hole like you mention. then add the 2 losses in detroit which is pretty much the only hic up since december and that created another obstacle. i really like how they have came back and pciked eachother up with injuries and so forth. telling signs of a real team. lets hope it continues!! keep winning and the tourney will be there and a decent seed as well. thats the key........we can lose a couple games but it CANT be to uaa. thats a killer in the rpi that they have fought so hard to get back on track

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Brad has portions of next year's schedule up on his blog:

Exhibition games:

UND vs. Manitoba (the first weekend of October)

UND vs. U.S. World Junior team (Dec. 19)

Regular season games:

UND will host Merrimack in a two-game series on October 9-10. This will be the regular-season opener. (Merrimack only has two seniors this year and they've combined for one goal).

UND will host Ohio State and Miami in Ralph Engelstad Arena for a Thanksgiving weekend showcase.

The Sioux will go to Notre Dame's tournament during Christmas break. I believe this will end up being the first weekend in January. Notre Dame's tournament is in Chicago now, not Florida. Don't know what other teams are in it. In exchange, Notre Dame will be coming to The Ralph for a Christmas showcase in two or three years.

And finally, UND will travel to Lynah Rink to take on Cornell in late January (probably the 22nd and 23rd).

Merrimack, OSU, Miami, ND, and Cornell for sure. Plus a matchup against the WJC team again.

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Brad has portions of next year's schedule up on his blog:

Merrimack, OSU, Miami, ND, and Cornell for sure. Plus a matchup against the WJC team again.

it will be nice to play the wjt team rather than the under18 if thats the case. sweet

decent schedule with that tourney involved

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Brad has portions of next year's schedule up on his blog:

Merrimack, OSU, Miami, ND, and Cornell for sure. Plus a matchup against the WJC team again.

That is 8 nonconference games. I wounder who the other two non-conference games are against? Millsy told me that the UND is not playing BSU next season.

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That is 8 nonconference games. I wounder who the other two non-conference games are against? Millsy told me that the UND is not playing BSU next season.

That should be it.

The NCAA allows a total of 34 games unless there are exemptions. Next year we go to Alaska so that will allow us to play 36 games. I don't believe any of the other games are exempt. With 28 conference games that allows us to play 8 non-conference next year.

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That should be it.

The NCAA allows a total of 34 games unless there are exemptions. Next year we go to Alaska so that will allow us to play 36 games. I don't believe any of the other games are exempt. With 28 conference games that allows us to play 8 non-conference next year.

We will also play one of the other teams in the Notre Dame tourney which makes it 8 non conference games. The World Junior team game and The Manitoba game are both exhibitions and do not count against our total.

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We will also play one of the other teams in the Notre Dame tourney which makes it 8 non conference games. The World Junior team game and The Manitoba game are both exhibitions and do not count against our total.

I also would be willing to bet we have one more non conference series. We had ten this season.

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I also would be willing to bet we have one more non conference series. We had ten this season.

We had 10 this year because there were two exemptions, the Alaska games and the Icebreaker tourny.

We only get 6 non-conference games as a standard. The 3 out 4 years we go to Alaska we get 2 more games due to the exemption which makes a total of 8.

The only other exemptions that I am aware of are the Icebreaker (we played BU/UMass this year) and the Hall of Fame game (we played Michigan State last year).

So the only way we have more than 8 non-conference next year is if we play in the Icebreaker again (not likely) or play in the Hall of Fame game (1 game only).

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We had 10 this year because there were two exemptions, the Alaska games and the Icebreaker tourny.

We only get 6 non-conference games as a standard. The 3 out 4 years we go to Alaska we get 2 more games due to the exemption which makes a total of 8.

The only other exemptions that I am aware of are the Icebreaker (we played BU/UMass this year) and the Hall of Fame game (we played Michigan State last year).

So the only way we have more than 8 non-conference next year is if we play in the Icebreaker again (not likely) or play in the Hall of Fame game (1 game only).

That makes sense.

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yes this year has been a bit different from the 4 others because this year we actually wen 3 or 4 games under .500 creating a deeper hole like you mention. then add the 2 losses in detroit which is pretty much the only hic up since december and that created another obstacle. i really like how they have came back and pciked eachother up with injuries and so forth. telling signs of a real team. lets hope it continues!! keep winning and the tourney will be there and a decent seed as well. thats the key........we can lose a couple games but it CANT be to uaa. thats a killer in the rpi that they have fought so hard to get back on track

I beg to differ ;) Just two years ago we were 7-10-1 including two sweeps by UAA and MTU going into our winter tourney at Dartmouth...pretty similar to this year. After that we went 17-3-4 going into WCHA tournament time. This year we started 5-9-1. We are 14-3-2 since going the first 15 games...and two of those losses were that abysmal GLI showing. We were what...a 3 seed that year in the tourney if I remember right?

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I thought so, I can't imagine playing the WJC team...it is like an all-star team of the best of NCAA hockey and CHL players.

Back on topic, I think that teams play better in the second half, you can win a boatload of games in the first month or so with one big line of superstars. I don't think that Hak's systems are that tough to learn (it's hockey after all, not rocket science). I do agree that it takes time for some guys to become comfortable with their roles and to adapt to what is best for the team.

I think the biggest factor is psychology. Not that we don't want to win, but that you build on each and every week. You need to win and lose as a team and experience successes and failures as a team.

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Yep, same one we always play...

we havent played the wjt since 2004-05 when stafford played for them vs the sioux and the sioux lost 3-0. we have played the u18 team since 2 or 3 times since then so will be nice to play that wjt again. very tough team. next years game is vs the wjt and not u18 team as they prepare for the wjt that new year.

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we havent played the wjt since 2004-05 when stafford played for them vs the sioux and the sioux lost 3-0. we have played the u18 team since 2 or 3 times since then so will be nice to play that wjt again. very tough team. next years game is vs the wjt and not u18 team as they prepare for the wjt that new year.

OK, my bad.

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With all the attention going towards 3's injury, hextall and jones are kind of forgotten. Anyone know anything on those two? If Jonesy isn't ready to play next week, we are in serious trouble at the Blueline.

im sure we will find out wednesday on whats up. if jones isnt ready then fienhage will be ready to roll. i wouldnt say serious trouble but others will fill a little different roles. man these games are huge so i undestand your concerns on the blue line as jones is rock solid as they come

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yeah, Fienhage is so green, and I'm not talking his jersey color. Blood looks like a freshman out there (which he is), but considering that he is getting ice over fienhage means CF isn't quite ready for a playoff run. Defense is tough to learn against D1 forwards in playoff hockey. We need to sweep this weekend.

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