Bracketology 2011

[gopherz]

Funny timing, UND's own PWR situation is so boring that I just wrote a blog post on UW's this morning -- Minnesota and Wisconsin tournament watch

I initially only focused on this weekend, but just added a chart for all four remaining regular season games. Looks like UW really needs to win 3 to stay in a holding pattern, while sweeping would put them in the driver's seat. From the former position, a strong showing in the play-in round and tournament would probably be required to climb. From the latter, a respectable play-in and early exit would likely suffice. That will all become much more certain once the matchups are determined.

Would you mind putting a Gopher one up for the rest of the year as well?

[LeftyZL]

Would you mind putting a Gopher one up for the rest of the year as well?

He already did.

Minnesota Tourney Watch

[gopherz]

He already did.

Minnesota Tourney Watch

Unless I'm seeing something wrong, he only has next weekend's "win 2" as the max for the Gophers, where as he has the Badgers played out all year.

[nodakvindy]

And secondly the whole "no interconference match-ups in the first round" thing would go out the door. So you've got a true 1 v. 16, 2 v. 15, 3 v. 14, etc. etc.

Couldn't disagree with this more. We see the same conference teams all year, and then have respective conference tournaments. The last thing I want is to meet up with a conference team again right away in the NCAAs. I think the no first round matchups is a must, and would like to see it extended to the second round as well. If four teams from a conference make the tourney, they should all be in different regions.

[Oxbow6]

With Denver losing and UMD in a freefall and UND hopefully taking care of their own business, pack your bags for St. Louis. Michigan or Notre Dame IMO will wind up in Green Bay as the 1 seed.

[fargosioux]

Here's my crack at this week's bracketology:

East (Bridgeport):

Yale vs. RIT (or Atlantic Hockey Winner)

Merrimack vs. Notre Dame

West (St. Louis):

North Dakota vs. Boston University

Nebraska-Omaha vs. Miami

Midwest (Green Bay):

Michigan vs. Colorado College

Union vs. Duluth

Northeast (Manchester):

Boston College vs. RPI

Denver vs. New Hampshire

[Stack]

Here's my crack at this week's bracketology:

East (Bridgeport):

Yale vs. RIT (or Atlantic Hockey Winner)

Merrimack vs. Notre Dame

West (St. Louis):

North Dakota vs. Boston University

Nebraska-Omaha vs. Miami

Midwest (Green Bay):

Michigan vs. Colorado College

Union vs. Duluth

Northeast (Manchester):

Boston College vs. RPI

Denver vs. New Hampshire

Not sure if you are predicting these regionals but if we bracketed today with the current Pairwise you would have:

East (Bridgeport) Yale is the host:

#1 Yale vs #16 RIT/Atlantic Champ

#8 Nebraska Omaha vs #9 Notre Dame

Midwest: (Green Bay) (Michigan Tech is the host)

#2 North Dakota vs #15 Dartmouth Unless they only use the RPI as a tie breaker and then BU would oust Dartmouth here

#7 Merrimack vs #10 Miami

Northeast (Manchester) UNH is the host:

#3 Boston College vs #14 Colorado College

#6 Union vs #11 New Hampshire (Duluth is tied with UNH with Duluth getting the tie breaker but they can put UNH in here)

West (St Louis) Host is actually the CCHA no real team.

#4 Michigan vs # 13 Rensselaer

# 5 Denver vs #12 Duluth (we can't have this so now what?) Why not just swap Rensselaer and Duluth so no first round conference match up). so we'd end up with

#4 Michigan vs #12 Duluth

#5 Denver vs #13 Rensselaer

So would these brackets be so bad? Maybe for attendance you swap the entire Midwest and West Brackets to put Michigan and Duluth close to Green Bay but that's about it. Of course a lot of these will be decided based upon the tie breaker they use.

[fargosioux]

Not sure if you are predicting these regionals but if we bracketed today with the current Pairwise you would have:

East (Bridgeport) Yale is the host:

#1 Yale vs #16 RIT/Atlantic Champ

#8 Nebraska Omaha vs #9 Notre Dame

Midwest: (Green Bay) (Michigan Tech is the host)

#2 North Dakota vs #15 Dartmouth Unless they only use the RPI as a tie breaker and then BU would oust Dartmouth here

#7 Merrimack vs #10 Miami

Northeast (Manchester) UNH is the host:

#3 Boston College vs #14 Colorado College

#6 Union vs #11 New Hampshire (Duluth is tied with UNH with Duluth getting the tie breaker but they can put UNH in here)

West (St Louis) Host is actually the CCHA no real team.

#4 Michigan vs # 13 Rensselaer

# 5 Denver vs #12 Duluth (we can't have this so now what?) Why not just swap Rensselaer and Duluth so no first round conference match up). so we'd end up with

#4 Michigan vs #12 Duluth

#5 Denver vs #13 Rensselaer

So would these brackets be so bad? Maybe for attendance you swap the entire Midwest and West Brackets to put Michigan and Duluth close to Green Bay but that's about it. Of course a lot of these will be decided based upon the tie breaker they use.

Duluth is a #3 seed and RPI is a #4 seed, so you can't swap them. Swapping is only done within each band of seeds.

[txsioux]

When you think about it, that number one seed overall is a big deal. RIT or RTI whatever it would be versus a Hockey East school in Maine or BU....come on pairwise figure yourself out....

[siouxweet]

When you think about it, that number one seed overall is a big deal. RIT or RTI whatever it would be versus a Hockey East school in Maine or BU....come on pairwise figure yourself out....

yale doesn't have enough games against TUC's left that they can lose. best we can hope for is us winning the final five and they lose in the ecac semi's against a TUC(they wouldn't face any before that) and then we would still fall about a half a percentage short of flipping that comparison. I really don't think if it comes down to that the committe would put us number one based on their past history. best we can hope for is the number two overall seed. unless jim can come up with other scenario. another possible scenario is there be a surprise champion in in say the ecac where a non tuc or dartmouth wins it. then we would avoid the likes of facing a bu or even maine in the first round.

[fargosioux]

When you think about it, that number one seed overall is a big deal. RIT or RTI whatever it would be versus a Hockey East school in Maine or BU....come on pairwise figure yourself out....

Agreed. Unfortunately I think it's going to be very hard to jump past Yale. I think they need to lose a couple games against TUC's in the ECAC tournament. In addition, I think we'd need to win the Broadmoor in order to jump them in the TUC record and flip our comparison with them. I have a feeling we are destined for #2 overall in the PWR.

Playing Michigan Tech the next 4 games isn't helping our record agains TUCs, which is where we need help right now.

[fargosioux]

yale doesn't have enough games against TUC's left that they can lose. best we can hope for is us winning the final five and they lose in the ecac semi's against a TUC(they wouldn't face any before that) and then we would still fall about a half a percentage short of flipping that comparison. I really don't think if it comes down to that the committe would put us number one based on their past history. best we can hope for is the number two overall seed. unless jim can come up with other scenario. another possible scenario is there be a surprise champion in in say the ecac where a non tuc or dartmouth wins it. then we would avoid the likes of facing a bu or even maine in the first round.

I think they could play Quinnipiac in the second round if there was an upset somewhere else in the first round, since re-seeding is done after the first round.. Quinnipiac is a TUC right now (barely). Then if Quinnipiac takes them to 3 games and they lose in the semifinals, I believe we could pass them. The stars would kind of have to align, but I think it's possible.

[siouxweet]

Agreed. Unfortunately I think it's going to be very hard to jump past Yale. I think they need to lose a couple games against TUC's in the ECAC tournament. In addition, I think we'd need to win the Broadmoor in order to jump them in the TUC record and flip our comparison with them. I have a feeling we are destined for #2 overall in the PWR.

Playing Michigan Tech the next 4 games isn't helping our record agains TUCs, which is where we need help right now.

nor would it help if bemidji, uaa or robert morris fall out of TUC status which all three are right on the cusp right now. in which we are 8-0-1 against those four teams right now.

[Stack]

Duluth is a #3 seed and RPI is a #4 seed, so you can't swap them. Swapping is only done within each band of seeds.

Sorry I forgot about that . I was looking at the Pairwise on College Hockey News and their version has Dartmouth ahead of BU for the final spot. USCHO is using the RPI as a tie breaker even though Dartmouth wins the individual comparisons with both BU and Maine. But if we go with what USCHO has:

The first group is 1 Yale, 2 North Dakota, 3 BC, 4 Michigan

Second group is 5 Denver, 6 Union, 7 Merrimack, 8 Omaha

Third group is 9 Notre Dame, 10 Miami, 11 Duluth, 12 UNH

Fourth Group is 13 RPI, 14 CC, 15 BU, 16 TBD

Since Yale and UNH are hosts they have to be placed in Bridgeport (Yale) and Manchester (UNH). But for the first go round I will place the Number 1 seeds closest to their regional.

So we're back to

Bridgeport

1 Yale vs 16 Atlantic hockey

8 Omaha vs 9 Notre Dame

Green Bay

2 UND vs 15 BU

7 Merrimack vs 10 Miami

Manchester

3 BC vs 14 CC

6 Union vs 11 Duluth

St Louis

4 Michigan vs 13 RPI

5 Denver vs 12 UNH

Why not just put the Michigan bracket in Manchester and the BC bracket in St Louis? Hey I'm done.

Who knew that when Yale beat CC early this year that common opponent criteria keeps Yale ahead of North Dakota.

[siouxweet]

Sorry I forgot about that . I was looking at the Pairwise on College Hockey News and their version has Dartmouth ahead of BU for the final spot. USCHO is using the RPI as a tie breaker even though Dartmouth wins the individual comparisons with both BU and Maine. But if we go with what USCHO has:

The first group is 1 Yale, 2 North Dakota, 3 BC, 4 Michigan

Second group is 5 Denver, 6 Union, 7 Merrimack, 8 Omaha

Third group is 9 Notre Dame, 10 Miami, 11 Duluth, 12 UNH

Fourth Group is 13 RPI, 14 CC, 15 BU, 16 TBD

Since Yale and UNH are hosts they have to be placed in Bridgeport (Yale) and Manchester (UNH). But for the first go round I will place the Number 1 seeds closest to their regional.

So we're back to

Bridgeport

1 Yale vs 16 Atlantic hockey

8 Omaha vs 9 Notre Dame

Green Bay

2 UND vs 15 BU

7 Merrimack vs 10 Miami

Manchester

3 BC vs 14 CC

6 Union vs 11 Duluth

St Louis

4 Michigan vs 13 RPI

5 Denver vs 12 UNH

Why not just put the Michigan bracket in Manchester and the BC bracket in St Louis? Hey I'm done.

Who knew that when Yale beat CC early this year that common opponent criteria keeps Yale ahead of North Dakota.

UNH has to stay in manchester as they are the host.

[Stack]

UNH has to stay in manchester as they are the host.

I realize this but my first bracketing was simply to put the Number 1 seeds closest to home. Since that put New Hampshire in St Louis I swapped the Michigan bracket with the BC bracket. I just didn't show it changed on the final version but I did state that I swapped them.

[yzerman19]

Just swap the whole 5 vs 12 and 6 vs 11 locations:

Bridgeport

1 Yale vs 16 Atlantic hockey

8 Omaha vs 9 Notre Dame

Green Bay

2 UND vs 15 BU

7 Merrimack vs 10 Miami

Manchester

3 BC vs 14 CC

5 Denver vs 12 UNH

St Louis

4 Michigan vs 13 RPI

6 Union vs 11 Duluth

These are some tough brackets with really good teams...

[RedFrog]

I think they could play Quinnipiac in the second round if there was an upset somewhere else in the first round, since re-seeding is done after the first round.. Quinnipiac is a TUC right now (barely). Then if Quinnipiac takes them to 3 games and they lose in the semifinals, I believe we could pass them. The stars would kind of have to align, but I think it's possible.

Who we want to stay a TUC that is near the cliff:

Bemidji State (.5007)(We are 4-0 v Bemidji)

Air Force (.5014)(Yale is 0-1 v Air Force)

Robert Morris (.5022)(We are 2-0 v Robert Morris)

Alaska-Anchorage (.5044)(We are 2-0-1 v Alaska Anchorage)

Who we want to fall off the TUC cliff:

Quinnipiac (.5009)(Yale is 2-0 v Quinnipiac)

Cornell (.5023)(Yale is 2-0 v Quinnipiac)

I didn't really see anyone that would hurt/help either team that is close to becoming a TUC. The closest being Brown(.4914)(Yale 2-1 v Brown) and Clarkson(.4913)(Yale 2-0 v Clarkson)

Even if Qunnipiac and Cornell fall off the cliff and Bemidji/Air Force/Robert Morris/Alaska Anchorage all stay on the good side of the cliff, Yale's TUC would be 8-3(.7273) v our (.7286).

Yale does not play this coming weekend and we do not play a TUC, so the only movement that will be made will be influenced by games out of our control.

Another thing of note I saw. After this weekends games against Mich Tech, we will end up with an (*) by our name for having a win not count toward our RPI as it would negatively influenced it. I don't think I've ever seen UND with this. But as someone else said, Tech is so bad, that losing to us would raise their RPI.

[fargosioux]

Just swap the whole 5 vs 12 and 6 vs 11 locations:

Bridgeport

1 Yale vs 16 Atlantic hockey

8 Omaha vs 9 Notre Dame

Green Bay

2 UND vs 15 BU

7 Merrimack vs 10 Miami

Manchester

3 BC vs 14 CC

5 Denver vs 12 UNH

St Louis

4 Michigan vs 13 RPI

6 Union vs 11 Duluth

These are some tough brackets with really good teams...

You're forgetting one thing. No way the NCAA will allow for the possibility of an all-WCHA Frozen Four again. You switch Merrimack and Omaha and you take care of that issue, and you have better attendance at those regionals.

[nodakvindy]

The other thing that could hurt Yale is if Quinnipiac and Cornell slip away as TUCs. Both will fall off if they are swept in their respective first ECAC playoff series. That would knock Yale down to an 8-3 TUC record. Add a loss to Union, RPI or Dartmouth and the comparison is flipped.

[fargosioux]

Who we want to stay a TUC that is near the cliff:

Bemidji State (.5007)(We are 4-0 v Bemidji)

Air Force (.5014)(Yale is 0-1 v Air Force)

Robert Morris (.5022)(We are 2-0 v Robert Morris)

Alaska-Anchorage (.5044)(We are 2-0-1 v Alaska Anchorage)

Who we want to fall off the TUC cliff:

Quinnipiac (.5009)(Yale is 2-0 v Quinnipiac)

Cornell (.5023)(Yale is 2-0 v Quinnipiac)

I didn't really see anyone that would hurt/help either team that is close to becoming a TUC. The closest being Brown(.4914)(Yale 2-1 v Brown) and Clarkson(.4913)(Yale 2-0 v Clarkson)

Even if Qunnipiac and Cornell fall off the cliff and Bemidji/Air Force/Robert Morris/Alaska Anchorage all stay on the good side of the cliff, Yale's TUC would be 8-3(.7273) v our (.7286).

Yale does not play this coming weekend and we do not play a TUC, so the only movement that will be made will be influenced by games out of our control.

Another thing of note I saw. After this weekends games against Mich Tech, we will end up with an (*) by our name for having a win not count toward our RPI as it would negatively influenced it. I don't think I've ever seen UND with this. But as someone else said, Tech is so bad, that losing to us would raise their RPI.

I didn't consider Yale opponents possibly falling off the cliff. Good info!

[The Sicatoka]

...

Green Bay

2 UND vs 15 BU

7 Merrimack vs 10 Miami

...

St Louis

4 Michigan vs 13 RPI

6 Union vs 11 Duluth

...

The NCAA, which is all about student-athletes and never money, will put Michigan in Green Bay and UND in St. Louis because they know UND fans will travel to either and Michigan fans can't find, much less attend, anything outside of the Big Ten footprint.

[fargosioux]

Who knew that when Yale beat CC early this year that common opponent criteria keeps Yale ahead of North Dakota.

Yeah, that loss to CC in January really hurt us. We'd be sitting ahead of Yale right now if we could have gotten the sweep that weekend.

[fargosioux]

Chuck Schwartz agrees with my brackets this week:

Chuck Schwartz Bracketology

Or maybe he copied mine!

[jimdahl]

yale doesn't have enough games against TUC's left that they can lose. best we can hope for is us winning the final five and they lose in the ecac semi's against a TUC(they wouldn't face any before that) and then we would still fall about a half a percentage short of flipping that comparison. I really don't think if it comes down to that the committe would put us number one based on their past history. best we can hope for is the number two overall seed. unless jim can come up with other scenario. another possible scenario is there be a surprise champion in in say the ecac where a non tuc or dartmouth wins it. then we would avoid the likes of facing a bu or even maine in the first round.

I agree, assuming today's RPI, we can get two wins vs. TUCs and Yale one loss. That brings us to .75 vs .7432, leaving TUC and the overall comparison with Yale.

However, the TUC cliff could make all the difference. I'm not sure how fargosioux's scenario plays out, but Quinnipiac could be key in another way, too.

I think they could play Quinnipiac in the second round if there was an upset somewhere else in the first round, since re-seeding is done after the first round.. Quinnipiac is a TUC right now (barely). Then if Quinnipiac takes them to 3 games and they lose in the semifinals, I believe we could pass them. The stars would kind of have to align, but I think it's possible.

It look like 2 losses drops Quinnipiac below .500 in RPI (all other things equal), thus becoming a non-TUC, thus taking away 2 TUC wins from Yale. That, plus some favorable tournament outcomes, could give the TUC criterion and the overall comparison to UND. Cornell is another possibility for dropping out of TUCness with a tournament loss to Colgate.

Of course, UND has its own TUC-cliff issues. AA would drop below .500 RPI if swept, as would Bemidji St. Robert Morris would drop below .500 RPI if it lost the opening game. So, the odds still definitely favor Yale in the individual comparison.

Less likely, but also possible -- UND could also pass Yale, while losing the comparison, if Yale lost two other comparisons (assuming, as most people think, that the tie-breaker is the comparison instead of RPI; otherwise, Yale losing one would be enough). Union could easily take the comparison w/Yale -- their COPs are identical and each will face COPs in the tournament, and an H2H is quite possible. Since Yale has such a strong RPI, it's tough to find another because any team other than UND would really need to flip two criteria.