Great West Preseason Poll

[bincitysioux]

There is already a poll up at the Great West website asking who'll be the pre-season favorite in the GWFC in 2008. UND is currently 3rd.

[SiouxMD]

The YOTES are getting no love...

[UND92,96]

It seems to me this poll would make more sense once the actual schedules are released, but since they've gone to the trouble of having one and all...I'll say UND finishes 3-1, beating USD and SUU, and splitting with the Cali schools. I just hope the season finishes with a home game. It would be nice to actually have a good chance to finish the season with a win for the first time in several years.

[bincitysioux]

bump

[bincitysioux]

The Great West website has finally been updated to include UND and USD.

[SiouxMD]

The Great West website has finally been updated to include UND and USD.

I still see the xDSU's on the header...

[bincitysioux]

I still see the xDSU's on the header...

I see Sioux and 'Yotes.

[andtheHomeoftheSIOUX!!]

I see Sioux and 'Yotes.

Yeah, as did I.

[Coyote Fan]

The YOTES are getting no love...

At this point in time USD doesn't deserve to get any love in the polls. That is not to intentionally throw USD under the bus but their very recent and consistant history shows that USD will have a very rough season. They have rarely/never had success on the road against competitive teams, such as the ones they will play. Since all but one of their D1 games will be on the road it's very fair to assume that USD could easily go O-For the road in 2008.

The biggest difference between USD and UND is their road play. UND plays solid road football and USD plays poor bordering on embarrassing on the road. It is what it is and until USD get a better home schedule they will probably not be much of a contender. If the Coyotes do not stress discipline in the off season and don't improve the defense the road will be tough again.

[SloStang]

At this point in time USD doesn't deserve to get any love in the polls. That is not to intentionally throw USD under the bus but their very recent and consistant history shows that USD will have a very rough season. They have rarely/never had success on the road against competitive teams, such as the ones they will play. Since all but one of their D1 games will be on the road it's very fair to assume that USD could easily go O-For the road in 2008.

The biggest difference between USD and UND is their road play. UND plays solid road football and USD plays poor bordering on embarrassing on the road. It is what it is and until USD get a better home schedule they will probably not be much of a contender. If the Coyotes do not stress discipline in the off season and don't improve the defense the road will be tough again.

If it helps, South Dakota State came out of their transition a stronger FCS teams than they were as a DII team. Hopefully the same will happen for USD.

[bincitysioux]

I think USD will be fine from the get-go. Jacks fans like to associate USD's recent success with UNC, NDSU, and SDSU leaving the NCC. Well, that situation also happens to coincide with their hiring of Ed Meierkort. I'm of the belief that Meierkort can just flat out coach. He won at DIII, he has won at DII, and I'm guessing that he'll put a pretty good squad together in DI.

[Coyote Fan]

I think USD will be fine from the get-go. Jacks fans like to associate USD's recent success with UNC, NDSU, and SDSU leaving the NCC. Well, that situation also happens to coincide with their hiring of Ed Meierkort. I'm of the belief that Meierkort can just flat out coach. He won at DIII, he has won at DII, and I'm guessing that he'll put a pretty good squad together in DI.

Of course Jacks fans will only take into account what they desire to take into account. USD used to get their butts kicked by both UNO and UND and last I checked neither program took a step backwards in the past 5 years. Now USD is on a near even level with UND and UNO (although the Yotes did take a step back this past season). It alot more than cooincidence that 30 point whippings have turned into much closer games. USD is definately better than the Jacks at home and definately worse on the road.

[Bison06]

Using SDSU and NDSU both as examples, it almost seems as if playing a I-AA schedule is not as tough as the old NCC schedule used to be. Not that those teams played the toughest I-AA opponents in the first few years of their transition, but their won/lost records actually improved from where they had been while playing D2 schedules just a couple of years earlier. Weird.

I am curious how NDSU's records have improved, since the move up to DI.

2000...........12-2

2001...........7-3

2002...........2-8

2003...........8-3

2004...........8-3

2005...........7-4

2006...........10-1

2007...........10-1

The 4 seasons leading up to the official move to DI(2000-2003), NDSU was a combined 29-15. The 4 seasons since(2004-2007), NDSU was a combined 35-12. I would say those two are very comparable. It seems that you have taken the 2002 season as a good example of the state of the program. It was a blip on the radar.

I expect UND and USD to well in the transition, but don't pull the "NDSU seemed to get better when they moved up, so the competition must be weaker argument". There are levels of competition in the NCAA for a reason. DIII<DII<FCS<FBS. There will always be a game here and there that speak to the contrary, but as a general rule moving up will bring more fierce competition.

[GeauxSioux]

I am curious how NDSU's records have improved, since the move up to DI.

2000...........12-2

2001...........7-3

2002...........2-8

2003...........8-3

2004...........8-3

2005...........7-4

2006...........10-1

2007...........10-1

The 4 seasons leading up to the official move to DI(2000-2003), NDSU was a combined 29-15. The 4 seasons since(2004-2007), NDSU was a combined 35-12. I would say those two are very comparable. It seems that you have taken the 2002 season as a good example of the state of the program. It was a blip on the radar.

I expect UND and USD to well in the transition, but don't pull the "NDSU seemed to get better when they moved up, so the competition must be weaker argument". There are levels of competition in the NCAA for a reason. DIII<DII<FCS<FBS. There will always be a game here and there that speak to the contrary, but as a general rule moving up will bring more fierce competition.

You must be using NDSU math. Using the records that you provided, I get..

2000-2003..... 29-16..... 64.4%

2004-2007....... 35-9.... 79.5%

Not that I really care what NDSU's record has been for the past 8 years, but it seems Dave K is right that NDSU's record is better since the move to FCS.

[Bison Dan]

You must be using NDSU math. Using the records that you provided, I get..

2000-2003 29-16 64.4%

2004-2007 35-9 79.5%

Not that I really care what NDSU's record has been for the past 8 years, but it seems Dave K is right that NDSU's record is better since the move to FCS.

Comparing these type of records don't tell you anything.

[GeauxSioux]

Comparing these type of records don't tell you anything.

Just trying to get the facts right. I do believe that Bohl has more to do with the improved record than the level of competition.

[Bison06]

You must be using NDSU math. Using the records that you provided, I get..

2000-2003..... 29-16..... 64.4%

2004-2007....... 35-9.... 79.5%

Not that I really care what NDSU's record has been for the past 8 years, but it seems Dave K is right that NDSU's record is better since the move to FCS.

I guess your UND math didn't teach you about statistically signifigant figures. I would call that a natural difference in records that could occur between any two 4 year periods. 6-7 wins or losses either way is pretty similar in my book, especially when you take into account one of those years accounts for 50% of the losses over the 4 year period.

[GeauxSioux]

I guess your UND math didn't teach you about statistically signifigant figures. I would call that a natural difference in records that could occur between any two 4 year periods. 6-7 wins or losses either way is pretty similar in my book, especially when you take into account one of those years accounts for 50% of the losses over the 4 year period.

I was commenting more on your addition than anything else.

You said 29-15 and it was actually 29-16. You said 35-12 and it was actually 35-9.

I would still take the 79.5% over the 64.4%

[Stromer]

I guess I don't see anything that proves that FCS has lower competition than the NCC did. During the transition, you play a variety of non-scholly FCS teams, some lower D2 teams because the good ones usually don't want to play up, possibly a D3 or lower for the 1st year, and some decent FCS teams. You also can throw in some good FCS teams and a couple FBS teams. Of course the NCC teams are going to have more talent than the D2, non scholly, and D3 teams. Good NCC teams also should be at the same level as the decent FBS teams. It is no surprise to me that the record should go up because the schedule is easier. However, the transitition schedule is not as tough as a regular FCS schedule. I think the records to compare (if it so tickles you to do so) would be the first 5 years a team is in a FCS conference to the last 5 in the NCC.

[Bison06]

I was commenting more on your addition than anything else.

You said 29-15 and it was actually 29-16. You said 35-12 and it was actually 35-9.

I would still take the 79.5% over the 64.4%

Don't I look foolish. Thanks for the correction.

[Herd]

Using SDSU and NDSU both as examples, it almost seems as if playing a I-AA schedule is not as tough as the old NCC schedule used to be. Not that those teams played the toughest I-AA opponents in the first few years of their transition, but their won/lost records actually improved from where they had been while playing D2 schedules just a couple of years earlier. Weird.

Or maybe NDSU is capable of leveraging the 63 scholarship level more effectivey and recruit more effectively than most with the benefit of this 27 scholarship increase. If you think that you can compare and rationalize the 36 to 63 scholarship change by won-lost records in DII, you are in for an education. Also, the records during the first few years of a transition really do not mean much, as the schedule difficulty is realatively easy compared to a full FCS slate in a conference. In 2009 when UND plays a full great west slate and has a higher percentage of FCS competition on the schedule, your record will start to mean more in the FCS pecking order. This coming year in the Valley will be NDSU toughest test by far.

[BobIwabuchiFan]

I guess your UND math didn't teach you about statistically signifigant figures. I would call that a natural difference in records that could occur between any two 4 year periods. 6-7 wins or losses either way is pretty similar in my book, especially when you take into account one of those years accounts for 50% of the losses over the 4 year period.

Sorry to be a stickler, but it really bothers me when people start throwing around 'statistically significant' as if they know what they are talking about. Saying there is a 'natural' difference does not mean it is statistically insignificant. I would imagine providing an F-test or T-test data on this would help you state your case as opposed to guessing what is 'natural'....Please note, as I'm sure you remember, that small sample sizes provide very low levels of confidence!

BobIwabuchiFan

[Bison06]

Sorry to be a stickler, but it really bothers me when people start throwing around 'statistically significant' as if they know what they are talking about. Saying there is a 'natural' difference does not mean it is statistically insignificant. I would imagine providing an F-test or T-test data on this would help you state your case as opposed to guessing what is 'natural'....Please note, as I'm sure you remember, that small sample sizes provide very low levels of confidence!

BobIwabuchiFan

My apologies if you are a statitician. I haven't taken the time, nor will I, to decipher whether this instance would be considered significant or not. I am merely saying, with my knowledge of football, that two four year intervals that are as similar as these two are should not be used as a marker as to the level of competition at the FCS level. NDSU consistently won 7-9 games a year every year leading up to the transition(except 2002). After the transition NDSU has won 7-10 games a year. I think a reasonable person would see these 4 year intervals as quite similar. The only reason I am met with any opposition whatsoever is because I am a fan of your rival school. If a loyal Sioux fan had presented this exact argument it would have been met with open arms. Sioux fans like to point to 2002 as an indicator as to the state of the program, as I said earlier it was a blip on the radar. If it makes you feel better to point at NDSU and say "They actually did better when they made the transition, FCS must be a joke" then by all means go right ahead. The facts just don't support that opinion. New coach, more funding, city re-investing as a fan base, these are the things that have gone right with NDSU's transition(SDSU also, for that matter), not the level of competition. I expect, as I always have, that UND and USD will come out of the transition very well, but it will have little/nothing to do with NDSU and SDSU's success. I think most of you would agree.

[Bison06]

Therefore, it appears to be not all that big of a jump in the quality of the competition from D2 to I-AA. Using NDSU, SDSU, and Cal-Davis as measuring sticks... it isn't a stretch to visualize UND being near the top of I-AA within the next few years.

The only one of those 3 teams that is considered to be at the top of FCS is NDSU, and IMO they haven't earned that yet. Also, I don't think to look at another team's success or lack of success proves anything about UND one way or the other. Look, I am not putting down UND or USD in any way. But, it's just not true when you continue to say it isn't a step up. I had a unique experience to play half of my career in D2 and half in FCS. I can say with no bias one way or the other, that the players in FCS are head and shoulder above D2 players. Bigger, stronger, faster at every position. The biggest difference is that with very few exceptions, every team you play at the FCS level has the talent to beat you. That is not the case in D2. This is just my experience with the two divisions. NDSU had some amazing recruiting classes come through in the last 6 years and that is a big reason for the success they have had, not the lack of competition.

[Dagger]

Apparently you think that NDSU is a lot better than they used to be. You also must think they are a lot better than all DII or UND. UND and NDSU did have a common opponent last year. They both played Southern Utah. The scores of the games were similar but from the start of the game to the end UND dominated their game much more so than NDSU. Are you saying that that was just a fluke? UND played them on the road and NDSU had a home game too.