specifics Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Ok, let's get realistic here. Obviously, if someone puts up 140 pts vs 7, they would most likely have a better chance of making the show... but that's not the case. We're looking at two players who have similar stats. If you don't think teams have more invested in a first round pick than a 3rd rounder, then you're crazy. They'll most likely give a 1st rounder a few extra chances to prove what he's got. Why? Marketing. Name all the 3rd rounders from the past 3 drafts without looking. Now name all the 1st rounders. Unless you spend your days memorizing the names of 3rd rounders, you'll name a lot more guys who went in the 1st. Nobody (i just scrolled through the convo, but if someone is saying this, they're pretty dumb) is saying that there is absolutely no chance irmen and potulny can make the show. But nobody is saying it's guaranteed either. College hockey is wierd, especially the WCHA. While we put out a lot of very highly skilled players, we also have points leaders who never make it in the NHL. Panzer, Senja, Goehring, Pohl, Westrum, Lundbohm. All of those guys dominated NCAA hockey, but look at how many NHL games they have combined: 34. And sejna has 27 of those. I wouldn't be surprised to see any of zajac, stafford, irmen and potulny make the show... but I wouldn't be surprised if only two of them made it either. Again, the best players will play in the NHL not the highest draft picks. Everyone knows that in most cases the best player for that year goes in the first round. But that does not by any mean say that a guy drafted in the 6th round isn't actually a far superior player (Brett Hull). You don't seem very sure of yourself with all your "most likely's" and your marketing idea. Probably because you have no real factual evidence to support your case, just your own views and nothing more. Who is a better marketing agent, Dany Heatly (first round) or Martin St. Louis (undrafted). Your way to fixated on draft number. Potulny for Hobey! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Back to the original topic, my vote is with mksioux. I prefer when the Sioux are coming in under the radar ready to prove people wrong. You'd think this year would be like that, with UND finishing 4th in its conference and in the middle of the tournament field, but the prognosticators seem to have found Sioux religion after last year's run. I'm even somewhat conflicted on whether I would prefer the games to be somewhere other than REA (though that conflict would quickly evaporate if the games being at REA meant I were able to attend, as it does for many here ) Some media may be fooled. Some opposing fans may be fooled. I just don't think any college hockey program would ever take the Sioux lightly. I didn't think BU or BC took the Sioux lightly, they just weren't good enough. Same with the Gophs. I'd rather have high expectations and be disappointed than have low expectations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpaw Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Again, the best players will play in the NHL not the highest draft picks. Everyone knows that in most cases the best player for that year goes in the first round. But that does not by any mean say that a guy drafted in the 6th round isn't actually a far superior player (Brett Hull). You don't seem very sure of yourself with all your "most likely's" and your marketing idea. Probably because you have no real factual evidence to support your case, just your own views and nothing more. Who is a better marketing agent, Dany Heatly (first round) or Martin St. Louis (undrafted). Your way to fixated on draft number. Potulny for Hobey! You throw out random low draft picks who have made it big, and you act like it's easy for any 6th rounder to make it. These are special people who do special things, but not everyone makes it. Karl Goehring, a free agent outplayed Pascal Leclaire, a #1 draft pick for Columbus, in Syracuse for two years. Anytime there was an opening at the NHL level, they'd promote Leclaire, despite the fact that he would get rocked in his games. i'm not basing this on a fake knowledge of the nhl. stats buddy. leclaire 8 21 3 .890 3.56 goehring 18 21 4 .914 2.67 also, I never said that low draft picks can't make it to the nhl... but they have more to prove. They have to overcome a lot more than a higher draft pick has to. Lower draft picks rarely get put on a top line with other super-skilled players, so they have to produce from the 3rd or 4th line. It's like with Kessel this year. Put him on a line with Irmen and Potulny and you see how they can score based on the PP stats. Have him on the 3rd line with rookies and he doesn't do as well as he could. There is a lot more to overcome for a 3rd round pick than a 1st round pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Some media may be fooled. Some opposing fans may be fooled. I just don't think any college hockey program would ever take the Sioux lightly. I didn't think BU or BC took the Sioux lightly, they just weren't good enough. Same with the Gophs. I agree that every team tries to "show up" for every playoff game; I just wonder if there isn't some other subtlety to being able to sneak up on teams. Michigan Daily: This time, there is no questioning Michigan's role as the underdogs. But that isn't necessarily a bad thing. If everyone is counting out the Wolverines, they might go to North Dakota and play like a team with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Instead of worrying about losing or making mistakes, a care-free approach might allow some of the younger players to display the talent that brought them to Michigan in the first place.Meanwhile, North Dakota has everything to lose, which can be a tough position to be in. It is a home game for them, and they are expected to beat a struggling Michigan club. The Wolverines have shown all season that when they can find ways to build momentum - they start playing like the team that earned the No.1 ranking at two different times earlier this year. If Michigan shakes off its nerves and North Dakota comes out tight, or even overlooks its opponent, the Wolverines might just get the good start they need to find that momentum and shock the Fighting Sioux. "No one is looking at us," Ruden said. "You read any of the papers from out there, they're looking at Minnesota in the next game. It's a big situation, so the least amount of pressure we can put on ourselves, the better it is for our guys to perform." No one really "overlooks" an opponent in the sense that every team shows up to win every single-elimination tournament game. However, there can be a subtle differences in how you handle on-the-ice situations dependent on you and your opponent's expectations of each of you winning. I will say, if Michigan's game plan is to hope that UND is overlooking them, they will leave disappointed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxperstar Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Both Potulny and Irmen are undersized forwards when it comes to the NHL. 6 Foot and 190 plus pounds just isn't big enough unless you have skills to burn. They are both rated at 6.5 B which means they have the potential to make it but aren't expected to play on anything but the third line. Zajac and Stafford are rated at 7.0 B which means they will play on the 2nd or 3rd line. They are both 6 foot 2 and 200 plus pounds which means they are more likely to be able to handle the long season. They are also both 1 year younger than Irmen and Potulny and are on schedule to play in the AHL in their 20th year. Irmen and Potulny are a year behind most of their peers that are going to play pro hockey somewhere. First of all, the ratings you're discussing haven't been updated since the start of the year--I would think the numbers are not reflective of the players' current abilities, since they've all vastly improved this season! Also, predicting they "WILL" be on any given line is somewhat ridiculous, unless you have a crystal ball. Second, the draft is used to predict what potential a player has to be in the NHL--obviously no one can predict the future--each player has to keep developing (& they each develop at their own pace)--I believe each of the players that has been discussed have been doing just that all year. Third, is size a factor in making an NHL team?? Of course! Stafford is definitely over 6' 2" & closer to 210 now--again, those original stats are quite outdated. If a guy has skills + size, he is going to be favored over the "smaller" player. BTW, Zajac is already 21--Stafford is still 20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
specifics Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 You throw out random low draft picks who have made it big, and you act like it's easy for any 6th rounder to make it. These are special people who do special things, but not everyone makes it. Karl Goehring, a free agent outplayed Pascal Leclaire, a #1 draft pick for Columbus, in Syracuse for two years. Anytime there was an opening at the NHL level, they'd promote Leclaire, despite the fact that he would get rocked in his games. i'm not basing this on a fake knowledge of the nhl. stats buddy. leclaire 8 21 3 .890 3.56 goehring 18 21 4 .914 2.67 also, I never said that low draft picks can't make it to the nhl... but they have more to prove. They have to overcome a lot more than a higher draft pick has to. Lower draft picks rarely get put on a top line with other super-skilled players, so they have to produce from the 3rd or 4th line. It's like with Kessel this year. Put him on a line with Irmen and Potulny and you see how they can score based on the PP stats. Have him on the 3rd line with rookies and he doesn't do as well as he could. There is a lot more to overcome for a 3rd round pick than a 1st round pick. Stats of two NHL goalies. Those players I pulled out were the studs. If you want I'll list the hundreds that played in a whole lot of games. I listed more than 6th rounders, just a good point. I bet people were saying the same thing about Hull (He'll be a 3rd liner at best...blah,blah). No one in here has any more knowledge than anyone else to say that Stafford and Zajac will be more successful than Irmen and Potulny. As far as right now, Potulny leads the nation in goals and points. He's in the same league as UND so difference in competition is not a factor. He is outplaying them both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THETRIOUXPER Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Just curious. Anyone know ry-ry's #'s as far as pp goals, even strength, and shorites. Then compare to what Staffords or Zajac's. No evil underlying theme here, just was curious since it was brought up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Silliness, but I'm enjoying myself. Junior Lessard (32,31,63) outscored both Vanek(26,25,51) and Parise(23,32,55). Who is carrying their own bag to the rink? The examples one way or the other are too numerous to count. Bottom line is it is a much tougher route to the show when you aren't a first rounder. I believe Potulny is tied for the league lead in PP goals with 17 and second in ESGs. He is not a penalty killer. Stafford leads the nation in shorties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Just curious. Anyone know ry-ry's #'s as far as pp goals, even strength, and shorites. Then compare to what Staffords or Zajac's. No evil underlying theme here, just was curious since it was brought up. RP has 38 goals, 17 power play goals, probably a couple of empty netters. He is very adept at catching tough passes and getting the shot off very quickly and I think that will translate to a NHL career. The funniest part about RP was the amount of fans who thought he should not return at the end of his freshmen season and take the redshirt. I personally found that to be humorous because he as already a year out of high school and the Gophers would be lucky to have him four years, let alone five. Guys like Vanek/Kessel/Potulny/Bochenski will make it in the NHL as long as they are producing goals. None of them will ever be known as 2-way players, though they may develop that part of the game as they get older. Others like Parise/Irmen/Oshie/Stafford will bring other parts of the game with them in addition to being capable scorers and that will get them in lineups even if they are not top six NHL forwards immediately. There are places in the league for all these players in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Deck Posted March 22, 2006 Author Share Posted March 22, 2006 I agree that every team tries to "show up" for every playoff game; I just wonder if there isn't some other subtlety to being able to sneak up on teams. Michigan Daily: No one really "overlooks" an opponent in the sense that every team shows up to win every single-elimination tournament game. However, there can be a subtle differences in how you handle on-the-ice situations dependent on you and your opponent's expectations of each of you winning. I will say, if Michigan's game plan is to hope that UND is overlooking them, they will leave disappointed. Very good points. Hopefully the Sioux are concentrating on the maize and blue as Michigan is in a nice situation - nothing to lose. Plus, the Sioux are the host/home school and, I would think, have a lot of pressure to get to Milwaukee? Heck many are counting the Gophs in the underdog role now . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slap Shot Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Silliness, but I'm enjoying myself. Junior Lessard (32,31,63) outscored both Vanek(26,25,51) and Parise(23,32,55). What year in school was each respectively for those point totals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
specifics Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Silliness, but I'm enjoying myself. Junior Lessard (32,31,63) outscored both Vanek(26,25,51) and Parise(23,32,55). Who is carrying their own bag to the rink? The examples one way or the other are too numerous to count. Bottom line is it is a much tougher route to the show when you aren't a first rounder. I believe Potulny is tied for the league lead in PP goals with 17 and second in ESGs. He is not a penalty killer. Stafford leads the nation in shorties. The tougher route goes to the player that is a lesser player. How many first rounders are there each year anyway? 30. If you can honestly sit behind your computer and say that a 30th pick and 31st pick are not interchangeable your out of your mind. Thats the difference between first and second round, one spot. You don't think maybe a number 65 pick could be better than a 33 pick? The way you see it is, a number one pick is always better than a number 2,3,4,5,6 pick. If that was the case every year the number one overall pick would flourish in the league. But that's not the case, because believe it or not scouts and GM's make mistakes on draft day and I can assure you they make up for it by getting ahold of the right player and putting him in the lineup. If all were to stay... Hobey Baker 2006-Ryan Potunly 2007-Danny Irmen 2008-Phil Kessel 2009-Erik Johnson haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpaw Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 The tougher route goes to the player that is a lesser player. How many first rounders are there each year anyway? 30. If you can honestly sit behind your computer and say that a 30th pick and 31st pick are not interchangeable your out of your mind. Thats the difference between first and second round, one spot. You don't think maybe a number 65 pick could be better than a 33 pick? The way you see it is, a number one pick is always better than a number 2,3,4,5,6 pick. If that was the case every year the number one overall pick would flourish in the league. But that's not the case, because believe it or not scouts and GM's make mistakes on draft day and I can assure you they make up for it by getting ahold of the right player and putting him in the lineup. If all were to stay... Hobey Baker 2006-Ryan Potunly 2007-Danny Irmen 2008-Phil Kessel 2009-Erik Johnson haha you call me out for listing just two goaltenders, but then you ask if a 31 v 30 pick is that much better. i'd say a 65 v a 33 is a huge difference, but when you're within 10-15 picks, the skill level is most likely going to be the same. you know what else? taylor chorney played better than brian lee this year. brian lee is the #9 overall pick, chorney is a mid 2nd rounder. I think lee will have an easier time making an NHL lineup than Chorney. This has nothing to do with gophers/sioux... it has everything to do with knowing that when a team only gets one 1st rounder per year, they have a lot of stock in that player. they pay that person a lot of money and no team wants to have a 1st rounder sit in their ahl system and take all that money. potunly won't get 1st round money, even if he is better than a lot of 1st rounders. he'll get what most draft picks around him make, as bochenski did this year. he will be much more easily sent down, because there isnt a million dollar price tag around his neck. skill can you get into the nhl, but it takes much more effort from a low rounder to overcome the stigma of not having a lot of potential. however, i agree with you that on-ice perfomance can move a player up, like st. louis and others... but there are other players who are handed things (crosby) because they are taken so high and the team has a lot to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 potunly won't get 1st round money, even if he is better than a lot of 1st rounders. he'll get what most draft picks around him make, as bochenski did this year... Did Bochenski get VERY good money for a 7th round pick? I would expect RP to get a VERY good offer this year. If he doesn't get signed and plays out his days at the "U" would RP not be eligible for free agency the summer after graduation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpaw Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Did Bochenski get VERY good money for a 7th round pick? I would expect RP to get a VERY good offer this year. If he doesn't get signed and plays out his days at the "U" would RP not be eligible for free agency the summer after graduation? teams have until august after a player graduates to sign them. this could be incentive for 1) a player to stay all 4 years and 2) get onto a better team or into a better system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
choyt3 Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Did Bochenski get VERY good money for a 7th round pick? I would expect RP to get a VERY good offer this year. If he doesn't get signed and plays out his days at the "U" would RP not be eligible for free agency the summer after graduation? Not too bad, according to this site. It doesn't have what his bonus was, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagard Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 teams have until august after a player graduates to sign them. this could be incentive for 1) a player to stay all 4 years and 2) get onto a better team or into a better system. 3) Get good contracts with nice bonus money after their Junior years, despite lower draft positions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
specifics Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 you call me out for listing just two goaltenders, but then you ask if a 31 v 30 pick is that much better. i'd say a 65 v a 33 is a huge difference, but when you're within 10-15 picks, the skill level is most likely going to be the same. you know what else? taylor chorney played better than brian lee this year. brian lee is the #9 overall pick, chorney is a mid 2nd rounder. I think lee will have an easier time making an NHL lineup than Chorney. This has nothing to do with gophers/sioux... it has everything to do with knowing that when a team only gets one 1st rounder per year, they have a lot of stock in that player. they pay that person a lot of money and no team wants to have a 1st rounder sit in their ahl system and take all that money. potunly won't get 1st round money, even if he is better than a lot of 1st rounders. he'll get what most draft picks around him make, as bochenski did this year. he will be much more easily sent down, because there isnt a million dollar price tag around his neck. skill can you get into the nhl, but it takes much more effort from a low rounder to overcome the stigma of not having a lot of potential. however, i agree with you that on-ice perfomance can move a player up, like st. louis and others... but there are other players who are handed things (crosby) because they are taken so high and the team has a lot to lose. Don't use the guy as quoted being "the next great one" in this discussion. Irrelevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiouxTupa Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 The one problem/difference between RP and Bo is that Bo was signed before the new CBA went into effect. Now that it is signed and done, rookie contracts took a MAJOR hit. Bo had a choice, and got lucky with such a big offer. However, even with the new CBA it would be wise for players to leave early because after they are out of eligibility their bargaining power still drops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jupiter Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Very good points. Hopefully the Sioux are concentrating on the maize and blue as Michigan is in a nice situation - nothing to lose. Plus, the Sioux are the host/home school and, I would think, have a lot of pressure to get to Milwaukee? Heck many are counting the Gophs in the underdog role now . . . Hey kid.... How's Bemidji? Anyway.... They key to this weekend for the Sioux is the Michigan game. They must concentrate on that game first and formost otherwise there will be no game for them on Saturday. There is no reason to even think about Minnesota right now. Just win, then worry about the Gophers... It's not like it will take much for them to "get up" for the Gophs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Deck Posted March 23, 2006 Author Share Posted March 23, 2006 Hey kid.... How's Bemidji? Anyway.... They key to this weekend for the Sioux is the Michigan game. They must concentrate on that game first and formost otherwise there will be no game for them on Saturday. There is no reason to even think about Minnesota right now. Just win, then worry about the Gophers... It's not like it will take much for them to "get up" for the Gophs. Hey, don't you have your own web site to post this stuff Friday night's game should be a nail biter indeed. It's going fairly well here, how's the land of NC? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jupiter Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Hey, don't you have your own web site to post this stuff Friday night's game should be a nail biter indeed. It's going fairly well here, how's the land of NC? I don't know about a nail biter, but it's realy hard for me to see how this game will go. I just don't know what to expect. I can see UND blowing them out and I can see Michigan pulling out a victory. We'll see I guess. As for NC... It's all good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Seriously, if you have watched Michigan lately you will see that they have senior goalie that hasn't ever played in the NCAA tourney. I think UND can feed of that and stuff a bunch of goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
termie Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 I'm sorta glad that we have a game to play Friday rather than a game against a "weaker" opponent. Looking back in my mind I think the Sioux at leat play better after playing a tough opponent. When the NCAA tournement was had 12 teams, the night off for the #1 seeds didn' t always help us. I think we started slow in some of those games: 1998 (against Michigan) and 1999 (against BU?) come to mind. Remembering those games it didn't seem that we had more legs then either team in the third period. On the other hand it's probably hard for Minnesota to really get pumped up for their game against HC. I'm sure they could get pumped up against either Us or Michigan as we are both rivals for them. If they do overlook HC they might get surprised. Some of the first round teams gave the #1 seeds good games last year. But if Minnesota does get pumped up for Holy Cross, they might score 7 goals in the first period. It will be hard for them to keep the play up for 60 minutes. That could also affect how they come out Saturday night against us or Michigan. Our task is a bit simpler. We either play 120 minutes of our-style hockey, or we're done for the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Anyone remember this thread? Check out some of the comments and predictions. Hindsight is always 20/20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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