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Sioux/PSU Game Thread


SiouxperDave

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The PSU website has some stories on their team, but I found this one more interesting.

http://morningsun.net/stories/120204/psu_20041202003.shtml

Looks like Belmore is slated to start the game, with Lennon willing to toss John in there should things not go well. I have the feeling Belmore is going to have a big game, along with Dressler and Johnson. Let's hope so.

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i was wondering if anyone knew where i could find the strength of schedule for pitt state and UND?

It depends how you want to measure SOS. A simple to understand, so well-accepted measure is something like RPI uses, a combination of opponents' win% and opponents' opponents' win%. Those are currently:

UND: opp%: .6369, opp-opp%: .5623, weighted SOS: .6120

Pitt St: opp%: .5667, opp-opp%: .5230, weighted SOS: .5521

Massey (formula unknown) says:

UND: 15.84 (hardest schedule in DII)

Pitt St: 14.10

If you believe in the predictive power of Massey's ratings (which even Massey doesn't), they would predict a 37-22 win for Pitt St. Pretty much any stats you run will indicated that Pitt St's offense should thoroughly embarrass UND's defense; but the predictive ability of such measures is even more limited than usual in this case, since Pitt St. has never faced a D as highly rated as UND, and UND has never faced an O as highly rated as Pitt St. Guess they better play the game just to be sure.

I can't get a solution comparing Pitt St. to UND using Bradley-Terry since Pitt St. is lossless.

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It depends how you want to measure SOS. A simple to understand, so well-accepted measure is something like RPI uses, a combination of opponents' win% and opponents' opponents' win%. Those are currently:

UND: opp%: .6369, opp-opp%: .5623, weighted SOS: .6120

Pitt St: opp%: .5667, opp-opp%: .5230, weighted SOS: .5521

Massey (formula unknown) says:

UND: 15.84 (hardest schedule in DII)

Pitt St: 14.10

If you believe in the predictive power of Massey's ratings (which even Massey doesn't), they would predict a 37-22 win for Pitt St. Pretty much any stats you run will indicated that Pitt St's offense should thoroughly embarrass UND's defense; but the predictive ability of such measures is even more limited than usual in this case, since Pitt St. has never faced a D as highly rated as UND, and UND has never faced an O as highly rated as Pitt St. Guess they better play the game just to be sure.

I can't get a solution comparing Pitt St. to UND using Bradley-Terry since Pitt St. is lossless.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What did the Massey Ratings predict for UND GVSU game? Is there a way to go back and check?

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What did the Massey Ratings predict for UND GVSU game?  Is there a way to go back and check?

Unfortunately, not that I know of. His current rankings would have UND beat GVSU by about 4 at home. But since the rankings incorporate that game, that's the whole point, they're supposed to accurately describe past results. Regardless, such a system is going to be able to make much more meanginful comparisons between teams like GVSU and UND that have at least a win and a loss; it's always going to predict great things for an undefeated team (because the past data indicates there's nothing you can do to beat them).

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Pitt St moved the ball pretty well, confirming what we all feared coming into the game -- they're going to get yards so the Sioux need to figure out how to make them work for every yard and bend but not break. The Sioux are starting to limit Philpot's rushing and have been hitting him hard. A penalty pushed the Gorillas back forcing Philpot to move to the pass and they failed to convert on a 3rd and 15.

Despite giving up one big run and a grinding 1st after that, the Sioux D forced a punt on the opening drive.

UND went 3 and out, so the offense isn't yet holding up their end of the field position battle.

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