InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 8, 2015 Posted March 8, 2015 The only thing that even worries me a bit is MN's PP. However, do I think we'd win? Definitely That being said I'd prefer to play the AHA autobid over the Big 10's. Quote
burd Posted March 8, 2015 Posted March 8, 2015 If any team is good enough to go deep, let's play them right away. No use putting it off. Quote
MafiaMan Posted March 8, 2015 Posted March 8, 2015 The only thing that even worries me a bit is MN's PP. However, do I think we'd win? Definitely That being said I'd prefer to play the AHA autobid over the Big 10's. Stay outta the box - problem solved. Quote
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 8, 2015 Posted March 8, 2015 If any team is good enough to go deep, let's play them right away. No use putting it off. I have 2 lines of thinking competing with each other. One is just as you said, we'll have to beat good teams to win it all so might as well do it immediately. The other is, better to have to only win 3 games against top notch opponents or have to win 4? I also think teams are susceptible to a letdown after such an emotional game as Sioux v Gophers, given the history and current situation of not playing each other. Quote
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 8, 2015 Posted March 8, 2015 Stay outta the box - problem solved. Unfortunately that may be easier said than done for this team. I believe we're currently top 10 in penalties/game? There is also the case of refs at the tournament calling penalties for being too tall and checking someone(I believe they used the term elbowing). Quote
burd Posted March 8, 2015 Posted March 8, 2015 I have 2 lines of thinking competing with each other. One is just as you said, we'll have to beat good teams to win it all so might as well do it immediately. The other is, better to have to only win 3 games against top notch opponents or have to win 4? I also think teams are susceptible to a letdown after such an emotional game as Sioux v Gophers, given the history and current situation of not playing each other. Me too. If this were a best of 3 or 5 format, I'd want the weaker team first, but in this tournament random causes play such a role in determining outcomes that I don't really care who we play or on what order. Quote
squirtcoach Posted March 8, 2015 Posted March 8, 2015 I don't claim to understand the QWB or the new PWR correctly. Does SCSU receive 0.035 points for each theoretical win over Omaha? With the games on the road I understand there is a bonus for that as well. Considering Minnie get no bonus for the theoretical winds against Penn State, it appears to me that SCSU would flip the Gophers if both teams sweep. Quote
yzerman19 Posted March 8, 2015 Posted March 8, 2015 I don't claim to understand the QWB or the new PWR correctly. Does SCSU receive 0.035 points for each theoretical win over Omaha? With the games on the road I understand there is a bonus for that as well. Considering Minnie get no bonus for the theoretical winds against Penn State, it appears to me that SCSU would flip the Gophers if both teams sweep. Its dynamic and iterative...the value is impacted by every single game played. Quote
squirtcoach Posted March 8, 2015 Posted March 8, 2015 The iterative nature of the system makes it hard to give a definitive answer I understand. But assuming all things balance out based on SOS, does that qwb and 'on the road' status mean that SCSU would have a 0.07 or 0.09 'bonus' compared to minnesota? Quote
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 9, 2015 Posted March 9, 2015 If Niagara wins, does that do anything for our PWR? Quote
jimdahl Posted March 9, 2015 Author Posted March 9, 2015 If Niagara wins, does that do anything for our PWR?Neither Niagara or Holy Cross affect us much. Quote
yzerman19 Posted March 9, 2015 Posted March 9, 2015 If Niagara wins, does that do anything for our PWR? A Niagara win improves our RPI a little tiny bit... Quote
jimdahl Posted March 9, 2015 Author Posted March 9, 2015 The iterative nature of the system makes it hard to give a definitive answer I understand. But assuming all things balance out based on SOS, does that qwb and 'on the road' status mean that SCSU would have a 0.07 or 0.09 'bonus' compared to minnesota?The quality win bonus (QWB) is dependent on RPI rank, so in that way you need to make two passes (one to calculate RPI rank, then one to apply bonuses). So, as your opponents move up and down in rank, the bonus you get for having beat them also goes up and down.The on the road vs home adjustment is different. In the base RPI, road wins and home losses are amplified while road losses and home wins are reduced (by multiplying the game RPI effects by 1.2 and .8, respectively).Final wrinkle -- the QWB is also weighted the same as the games based on home vs. away. Quote
jimdahl Posted March 9, 2015 Author Posted March 9, 2015 Simplified-- you get more credit for winning on the road than at home, but get dinged more for losing at home than on the road. You also get a bonus for beating other top teams.This is all meant to incentivize good teams to play other good teams and to play more road games. Quote
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 9, 2015 Posted March 9, 2015 A Niagara win improves our RPI a little tiny bit... A boost of .0001 after Niagara's win, whooo that's exciting!! Quote
squirtcoach Posted March 9, 2015 Posted March 9, 2015 Thanks Jim, that helps me understand how the QWB is applied. I used to understand the 'old system' before the amplifiers and the QWB and could give an educated guess what would happen if Team A won and Team B lost, that usually was roughly close. With the new system, I am looking for a shortcut algorithm to figure out probable RPI changes based on individual team wins and losses in the new system. Maybe there are too many variables to even do that without putting together a Bayesian program. Quote
yzerman19 Posted March 9, 2015 Posted March 9, 2015 Thanks Jim, that helps me understand how the QWB is applied. I used to understand the 'old system' before the amplifiers and the QWB and could give an educated guess what would happen if Team A won and Team B lost, that usually was roughly close. With the new system, I am looking for a shortcut algorithm to figure out probable RPI changes based on individual team wins and losses in the new system. Maybe there are too many variables to even do that without putting together a Bayesian program. yep- not as simple as applying a coefficient. It all has to start with an "if" and a parenthetical. That said, it isn't rocket science and can be done- or if you're not into the details...just win baby! Quote
MafiaMan Posted March 9, 2015 Posted March 9, 2015 jimdahl, thanks for your explanations here. One more question for you. Is there a scenario that could happen in the Michigan/Michigan State and Minnesota/Penn State series' that would result in the conference imploding? I would think that a Nittany Lion sweep would drop every B10 team out of the top 16, but would a split in Minneapolis do that as well? Quote
Goon Posted March 9, 2015 Posted March 9, 2015 jimdahl, thanks for your explanations here. One more question for you. Is there a scenario that could happen in the Michigan/Michigan State and Minnesota/Penn State series' that would result in the conference imploding? I would think that a Nittany Lion sweep would drop every B10 team out of the top 16, but would a split in Minneapolis do that as well? Oh, I would bet the Goofs split with PSU this weekend. Quote
jimdahl Posted March 9, 2015 Author Posted March 9, 2015 jimdahl, thanks for your explanations here. One more question for you. Is there a scenario that could happen in the Michigan/Michigan State and Minnesota/Penn State series' that would result in the conference imploding?I would think that a Nittany Lion sweep would drop every B10 team out of the top 16, but would a split in Minneapolis do that as well?All other things equal (adding just those two games to the existing results), a split keeps Minnesota at 14. Getting swept has them plummet to 19.When you add in the other games, things look a little worse for Minnesota. Depending how other teams do, they seem most likely to fall between #14 and #17 if they split, with #15-16 most likely. Quote
jimdahl Posted March 9, 2015 Author Posted March 9, 2015 Thanks Jim, that helps me understand how the QWB is applied. I used to understand the 'old system' before the amplifiers and the QWB and could give an educated guess what would happen if Team A won and Team B lost, that usually was roughly close. With the new system, I am looking for a shortcut algorithm to figure out probable RPI changes based on individual team wins and losses in the new system. Maybe there are too many variables to even do that without putting together a Bayesian program.Yeah, I used to have a web page that made it really easy to see the potential impacts of future games. The new system made that a lot harder. I think I've finally figured out how to do it and present it, but it's a lot of work to get it developed. Hopefully for next season. Quote
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 9, 2015 Posted March 9, 2015 All other things equal (adding just those two games to the existing results), a split keeps Minnesota at 14. Getting swept has them plummet to 19. When you add in the other games, things look a little worse for Minnesota. Depending how other teams do, they seem most likely to fall between #14 and #17 if they split, with #15-16 most likely. I feel like 16th in the PWR is a perfect position for them going into the NCAAs. Quote
aaronmanderson3 Posted March 9, 2015 Posted March 9, 2015 Let's say Minnesota comes out of next weekend at 15 in the PWR. Assuming nobody falls out of the top 14*, they still have to win their tournament to get in, as every other team will then get the B1G auto-bid, dropping the at-large bids to 14. * As this year has pointed out, at least 3 teams will fall out. Quote
The Sicatoka Posted March 9, 2015 Posted March 9, 2015 With a 16 team tournament and 6 automatic bids, and the parity in college hockey today, the only safe zones are PWR10 and higher or holding a conference tournament trophy. How can I say this? Would anyone really be shocked beyond belief at SCSU or WMU winning the NCHC tournament title? How about Penn State winning the B1G? Quote
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