RedFrog Posted March 14, 2011 Posted March 14, 2011 In playing with the USCHO Pairwise Predictor, I have figured that the only way we can get the overall #1 seed is if Colgate beats Yale. This is vital because Colgate is a common opponent for Yale/BC. Yale losing to Colgate would flip the comparison in favor of BC, creating a 3 way tie for first. We DO want: Yale to lose to Colgate Sioux to keep winning! (Winning is key, if either BC or Merrimack(by beating Northeastern) win Hockey East, we need 2 wins to maintain the #2 overall spot. Would get the #1 overall if Yale loses to Colgate and we win 2. Could fall as far as #4 if Merrimack wins HE and we lose 1 game) This was all derived from only a short amount of time playing with the predictor...I will play more in the coming days and post other scenarios/interesting facts that I find. I invite you all to do the same!! Quote
fargosioux Posted March 14, 2011 Posted March 14, 2011 I ran a scenario where UND loses on Friday and still gets the #1 seed overall. It has Yale losing twice and BC losing to Northeastern. Quote
The Sicatoka Posted March 14, 2011 Posted March 14, 2011 Is there a scenario where UN-Omaha faces the ultimate punishment (no NCAA bid) after getting swept by The Beav? Quote
fargosioux Posted March 14, 2011 Posted March 14, 2011 Is there a scenario where UN-Omaha faces the ultimate punishment (no NCAA bid) after getting swept by The Beav? Yes, apparently there are scenarios where UNO does not make the tournament. Quote
siouxweet Posted March 14, 2011 Posted March 14, 2011 Yes, apparently there are scenarios where UNO does not make the tournament. one of them involves cc winning the final five, northeastern wins hockey east, cornell wins ecac and RIT wins atlantic hockey-in this scenario we also tie yale for the number one seed. Quote
fargosioux Posted March 14, 2011 Posted March 14, 2011 If UNO doesn't make the tournament, I think it's time for Blais to go. Quote
The Whistler Posted March 14, 2011 Posted March 14, 2011 If UNO doesn't make the tournament, I think it's time for Blais to go. It's unacceptable for Blais to miss the NCAA 16 two years in a row. He's getting the big money to bring home the championship. Quote
jimdahl Posted March 14, 2011 Author Posted March 14, 2011 My predictions for the final PWR rankings. In short: Who’s making the NCAA tournament? * The top 9 seem a lock: Yale, North Dakota, Boston College, Michigan, Miami, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Merrimack, Union * The next 3 could miss with the wrong loss(es): Notre Dame, New Hampshire, Western Michigan * 7 of the next 8 are still alive, but need help outside their control (or to win an autobid): Nebraska-Omaha, Colorado College, Dartmouth, Rennselaer, Boston University, Maine, Alaska Anchorage * Minnesota seems out Quote
RedFrog Posted March 15, 2011 Posted March 15, 2011 Entering my predictions for the coming weekend, here is my prediction of what the FINAL bracket will be. Now this is me entering my gut feeling results for this weekend. There is no tinkering with it to get the final brackets I would want. User-Specified Results You have specified the following tournament results: * WCHA Play-in #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Bemidji State. * WCHA Play-in #1: Colorado College defeats Alaska-Anchorage. * WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver. * WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Colorado College. * WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota-Duluth. * Hockey East Semifinal #2: Merrimack defeats New Hampshire. * Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Northeastern. * Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Merrimack. * ECAC Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Cornell. * ECAC Semifinal #1: Yale defeats Colgate. * ECAC Championship game: Yale defeats Dartmouth. * ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Colgate. * CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame. * CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan. * CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan. * CCHA Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Western Michigan. * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross. * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut. * Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT. Rk Team PCWs RPI Comparisons Won 1 [AQ] Yale (Ya) 29 .5800* ND BC Mm Mi MD Mr DU Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 2 [AQ] North Dakota (ND) 28 .5874* BC Mm Mi MD Mr DU Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 3 [AQ] Boston College (BC) 27 .5820* Mm Mi MD Mr DU Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 4 [AQ] Miami (Mm) 26 .5622 Mi MD Mr DU Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 5t Michigan (Mi) 24 .5562 MD DU Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 5t Minnesota-Duluth (MD) 24 .5553 Mr DU Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 7 Merrimack (Mr) 23 .5521* Mi DU Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 8 Denver (DU) 22 .5530 Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 9 Union (Un) 21 .5521* Mr Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 10 Notre Dame (Nt) 20 .5489 NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 11t New Hampshire (NH) 17 .5435 CC NO Da BU WM Me AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 11t Colorado College (CC) 17 .5263 Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 13t Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 16 .5325 CC Da BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS Cr Pn RT Qn 13t Dartmouth (Da) 16 .5301 RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 15 Rensselaer (RP) 15 .5235 NH NO BU Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 16t Boston University (BU) 14 .5279 WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 16t Western Michigan (WM) 14 .5240 Un RP Me Mn AA AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 18t Maine (Me) 12 .5246 RP Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi BS Cr Pn RT Qn 18t Minnesota (Mn) 12 .5184 NH AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 20 [IE] Alaska-Anchorage (AA) 10 .5137 SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 21 [IE] St. Cloud State (SC) 9 .5116 WM Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 22t [AQ] Air Force (AF) 7 .5119 SC FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 22t [IE] Alaska (Ak) 7 .5088 AF Wi FS Cr Pn RT Qn 24t Wisconsin (Wi) 6 .5211 AF FS BS Cr Pn RT 24t Ferris State (FS) 6 .5073 Me BS Cr Pn RT Qn 26 [IE] Bemidji State (BS) 5 .5016 NO Ak Pn RT Qn 27 Cornell (Cr) 4 .5060 BS Pn RT Qn 28 Princeton (Pn) 2 .5109 RT Qn 29t RIT (RT) 1 .5057 Qn 29t Quinnipiac (Qn) 1 .5025 Wi Thus the Brackets would be: 1 Yale v 16 Air Force 8 Denver v 9 Union 2 North Dakota v 15 RPI 7 Merrimack v 10 Notre Dame 3 BC v 14 Dartmouth 6 Minn-Duluth v 11 New Hampshire 4 Miami v 13 UNO 5 Michigan v 12 CC Perfect bracket integrity with no inter-conference match-ups. A couple of notes: Denver and Air Force can be travel buddies heading to the East. I do see UND going to Green Bay in this case though w/ the Miami bracket in St. Louis. A (likely?) chance for an all WCHA Frozen Four. I have spoken posted...so it shall be. Quote
brianvf Posted March 15, 2011 Posted March 15, 2011 1 Yale v 16 Air Force 8 Denver v 9 Union 2 North Dakota v 15 RPI 7 Merrimack v 10 Notre Dame 3 BC v 14 Dartmouth 6 Minn-Duluth v 11 New Hampshire 4 Miami v 13 UNO 5 Michigan v 12 CC I would love if this actual bracket happened. Miami's bracket is brutal. Any of those four teams could end up in StP. BC would have to play a tough UMD or UNH team to advance. Yale and DU? A toss-up, but at least Yale wouldn't have a cakewalk to StP like in other brackets. I think UND could win that regional... Quote
jimdahl Posted March 15, 2011 Author Posted March 15, 2011 Cross-posted from blog post comments... Someone asked via email how UNO could be left out. The share of scenarios that have UNO finish with each PWR ranking are: #12 4% #13 31% #14 33% #15 26% #16 5% The things that seem to hurt UNO the most, pushing them to the lower rankings, are: CC winning, Western Michigan winning, and Dartmouth winning. If UNO finishes #16, they Quote
siouxweet Posted March 15, 2011 Posted March 15, 2011 Entering my predictions for the coming weekend, here is my prediction of what the FINAL bracket will be. Now this is me entering my gut feeling results for this weekend. There is no tinkering with it to get the final brackets I would want. Rk Team PCWs RPI Comparisons Won 1 [AQ] Yale (Ya) 29 .5800* ND BC Mm Mi MD Mr DU Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 2 [AQ] North Dakota (ND) 28 .5874* BC Mm Mi MD Mr DU Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 3 [AQ] Boston College (BC) 27 .5820* Mm Mi MD Mr DU Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 4 [AQ] Miami (Mm) 26 .5622 Mi MD Mr DU Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 5t Michigan (Mi) 24 .5562 MD DU Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 5t Minnesota-Duluth (MD) 24 .5553 Mr DU Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 7 Merrimack (Mr) 23 .5521* Mi DU Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 8 Denver (DU) 22 .5530 Un Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 9 Union (Un) 21 .5521* Mr Nt NH CC NO Da RP BU Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 10 Notre Dame (Nt) 20 .5489 NH CC NO Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 11t New Hampshire (NH) 17 .5435 CC NO Da BU WM Me AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 11t Colorado College (CC) 17 .5263 Da RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 13t Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 16 .5325 CC Da BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS Cr Pn RT Qn 13t Dartmouth (Da) 16 .5301 RP BU WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 15 Rensselaer (RP) 15 .5235 NH NO BU Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 16t Boston University (BU) 14 .5279 WM Me Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 16t Western Michigan (WM) 14 .5240 Un RP Me Mn AA AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 18t Maine (Me) 12 .5246 RP Mn AA SC AF Ak Wi BS Cr Pn RT Qn 18t Minnesota (Mn) 12 .5184 NH AA SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 20 [IE] Alaska-Anchorage (AA) 10 .5137 SC AF Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 21 [IE] St. Cloud State (SC) 9 .5116 WM Ak Wi FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 22t [AQ] Air Force (AF) 7 .5119 SC FS BS Cr Pn RT Qn 22t [IE] Alaska (Ak) 7 .5088 AF Wi FS Cr Pn RT Qn 24t Wisconsin (Wi) 6 .5211 AF FS BS Cr Pn RT 24t Ferris State (FS) 6 .5073 Me BS Cr Pn RT Qn 26 [IE] Bemidji State (BS) 5 .5016 NO Ak Pn RT Qn 27 Cornell (Cr) 4 .5060 BS Pn RT Qn 28 Princeton (Pn) 2 .5109 RT Qn 29t RIT (RT) 1 .5057 Qn 29t Quinnipiac (Qn) 1 .5025 Wi Thus the Brackets would be: 1 Yale v 16 Air Force 8 Denver v 9 Union 2 North Dakota v 15 RPI 7 Merrimack v 10 Notre Dame 3 BC v 14 Dartmouth 6 Minn-Duluth v 11 New Hampshire 4 Miami v 13 UNO 5 Michigan v 12 CC Perfect bracket integrity with no inter-conference match-ups. A couple of notes: Denver and Air Force can be travel buddies heading to the East. I do see UND going to Green Bay in this case though w/ the Miami bracket in St. Louis. A (likely?) chance for an all WCHA Frozen Four. I have spoken posted...so it shall be. if this were how the final pairiwise were to look I'm pretty sure they would do some switching to get duluth in green bay. Quote
RedFrog Posted March 15, 2011 Posted March 15, 2011 if this were how the final pairiwise were to look I'm pretty sure they would do some switching to get duluth in green bay. If you switch Duluth to get them into Green Bay(or St. Louis), you create a inter conference match-up in the 1st round by either Merrimack/New Hampshire or UMD/CC Quote
jimdahl Posted March 19, 2011 Author Posted March 19, 2011 The number of remaining games is small enough that it's now possible to accurately describe the remaining possibilities. Here's my stab, taken from my NCAA Hockey Tournament Field Shaping Up post (which has a lot more details on the odds of each team finishing with each particular ranking): Other than the AHA champ, Cornell is the only possible non-top 16 autobid , so #14 in PWR will make it. #15 will if Cornell loses. In the NCAA tournament: Yale, UND, BC, Michigan, Miami, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Merrimack, Union, Notre Dame, New Hampshire, Western Michigan In: Autobid goes to Winner of Air Force/RIT In if Cornell loses: Nebraska-Omaha, CC, RPI In if Cornell wins: Cornell and two of those three (UNO, CC, RPI) Out: Maine, Dartmouth, BU A little more on UNO vs. CC vs. RPI (remember, which only matters if Cornell beats Yale, otherwise all three are in) – Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Michigan or Notre Dame wins — RPI is out Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Notre Dame ties Michigan, Miami beats Western Michigan — RPI is out Dartmouth beats or ties Colgate, Notre Dame ties Michigan, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan beats Notre Dame — CC is out Colgate beats Dartmouth, Notre Dame beats Michigan, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out Colgate beats Dartmouth, Notre Dame beats Michigan, Miami beats Western Michigan –- RPI is out Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan ties Notre Dame, Miami beats Western Michigan — CC is out Colgate beats Dartmouth, Michigan ties Notre Dame, Western Michigan beats Miami — UNO is out Quote
siouxporter Posted March 19, 2011 Posted March 19, 2011 Where would CC be if they had to play in a third place game and lost? Quote
gfhockey Posted March 19, 2011 Posted March 19, 2011 We gotta root for UNH to win. According o jason moy of USCHO, theres a strong chance that if UNH loses that they will end up as a 4 seed. And after avoiding interconference matchups, the only number one see they would likely see is UND in manchester. Same rink as last year when we quit playing with .01 seconds to play in the third period. GO UNH! Also is UNH wins we are guarenteed the #2 overall seed. Quote
brianvf Posted March 19, 2011 Posted March 19, 2011 We gotta root for UNH to win. According o jason moy of USCHO, theres a strong chance that if UNH loses that they will end up as a 4 seed. And after avoiding interconference matchups, the only number one see they would likely see is UND in manchester. Same rink as last year when we quit playing with .01 seconds to play in the third period. GO UNH! Also is UNH wins we are guarenteed the #2 overall seed. The only way we get shipped out to Manchester is if UNH is a #4 seed AND Merrimack gets the final #1 seed. The latter is the one that isn't as likely. Could still happen, but it looks like Miami has the best shot at the final #1 seed. Quote
siouxweet Posted March 28, 2011 Posted March 28, 2011 Geez it took a trip to the frozen four for us to FINALLY gain the top spot in the pairwise. Quote
Let'sGoHawks! Posted March 28, 2011 Posted March 28, 2011 Geez it took a trip to the frozen four for us to FINALLY gain the top spot in the pairwise. UND said polls, schmolls, rankings, schmankings. They went out on the ice and took care of business. Quote
johndahl Posted March 28, 2011 Posted March 28, 2011 UND moved up to #1 in PWR as soon as Yale lost, but PWR isn't a great measure anyway. The one that really impresses me, and shows UND's strength this year, is their Bradley-Terry/KRACH rating relative to the other "top" teams. John Quote
mikejm Posted March 28, 2011 Posted March 28, 2011 UND said polls, schmolls, rankings, schmankings. They went out on the ice and took care of business. They've been doing this pretty regularly since Christmas. I am really impressed with this team; I'll admit I was apprehensive about today's game vs Denver, but they went out and played Sioux hockey and sent the Pios home. Some serious good karma floating around this team right now. Look at Nelson: knocked out of last night's game and comes back and scores a HUGE goal today. That's karma, there. Quote
Snake Posted March 28, 2011 Posted March 28, 2011 Look at Nelson: knocked out of last night's game and comes back and scores a HUGE goal today. That's karma, there. Not to forget Kristo since his return, too! Awesome. Quote
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