First off, I do believe UND will win, but what will be interesting is to see how they do it.
34-31 is a win, but I would have serious trepidation about the direction of the defense. The offense can win shootouts, but I feel you shouldn't have to against NAU. But it is a win. Learn (if possible) and move on.
41-24 (or even something like 34-17) is my bar for UND winning this game and doing so they way they should. 17 points is sort of my breakeven point for how I will perceive the win.
Winning by 21+ is my "great expectations" point differential. Defense holding NAU to 14 would be a welcome sign and give us a lot to be excited for as we head into the crucial month mid-Sept. to mid-Oct.