jdub27
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Everything posted by jdub27
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Yes, because the polls your citing have shown to be really accurate and very flexible to move off their initial rankings. The one that is typically the most accurate, AGS, has WIU ahead of EWU (actually WIU, EWU, YSU at 7,8,9). It's also convenient how you keep including best two wins instead of three, which allows you to exclude USD's FBS win. Understandable since that would require you to add in NDSU's third best win, which is Missouri State and that doesn't even come close to helping your case.
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Better than your "eye test". A resume is a complete body of work. USD's is better than NDSU's to date. There are different levels of "bad teams". Thinking that Bowling Green is near the same level as Missouri State (both team's 3rd best win) is ridiculous. UND blew out Missouri State. Hell, UND would be 4-2 with NDSU's schedule and they are in the bottom half of USD's SOS.
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You are probably right on the record and you would finally be right on the resume part as well. That's the point.
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So in order to make your point, you have to put USD's second best win against NDSU's top win and then claim that a ~12 point difference is actually a wash. No wonder you don't have a clue.
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Considering the "bad" teams they have beaten aren't as bad as the "bad" teams NDSU has beaten, then yes, they should. Knowing that, I'm not sure how you can objectively say that NDSU has a better resume. This adjusts for where the game was. The only comparison NDSU wins is the first one by half a point. USD NDSU @WIU = @YSU (YSU by 0.5) YSU > @EWU (YSU by 10.2) @BGU > MSU (BGU by 21.9) @UND > @ISU (UND by 11.2) ISU > RMU (ISU by 7.4) Drake > MVSU (Drake by 16.8)
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They get more credit for beating poor teams even though they have a harder schedule? Seriously, step back and be objective. USD has played a harder schedule and to this point has a better resume. It's OK to admit. This year only SOS: USD - #160 (49.93) NDSU - #230 (36.66) USD's schedule is even harder when looking at that. Winning at YSU and WIU is basically a wash. Beating YSU is still better than winning at EWU. Beating Bowling Green is still significantly better than Missouri State. Advantage USD. I'm not saying that USD is going to beat NDSU. The point was made that they have a better resume to date and you took exception with it based on nothing but your eye test.
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You're completely ignoring some other factors, including bias from previous seasons. By your "eye test" you claim NDSU has better wins but there are no objective numbers that bear that out. I also showed where it places USD ahead of NDSU using this season's results only, so how do you explain that outside of leaning on human polls and voters who slot vote and won't move NDSU down unless they lose.....?
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There's some truth in this....
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Ah, now I get how you're going to get around it. I brought up Sagarin because it's an objective measure of SOS, which shows USD with the same record as NDSU but a harder schedule. You are the one who brought individual rankings into it, which I then showed that rankings that only go off of this season have USD as above NDSU. Remember, you're the one who made the claim that NDSU has a better resume but I've yet to see an objective measure that proves that.....
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You're right, Sagarin is currently assigning roughly 2.07/2.20 points for home field advantage this year. Since YSU is USD's second best win, you need to compare them correctly: Winning @WIU is better than winning @YSU (both team's best win) and beating YSU at home is better than winning @EWU (both team's second best win). Advantage USD. When are you going to acknowledge the part where the rankings that only take into account this season show USD as better than NDSU?
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I see you not surprisingly completely ignored my 2nd point, but you made up for it by making things up with your last sentence... Best two wins on NDSU's schedule: YSU - 85 (64.03)EWU - 117 (57.71) Best two wins on USD's schedule: WIU - 48 (64.71)YSU - 85 (64.03) USD's third and fourth wins are also better than NDSU's third. But I digress.
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Both teams are 6-0. One has played a harder schedule. Seems pretty simple to decide who, to this point in time, has a better resume. Also, if you use only results from this year, USD is rated #39 (76.65) and NDSU is #46 at (74.83). The main rankings are still showing bias from outside this season. What's going to be your excuse for that?
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Both teams are 6-0. Sagarin currently has NDSU rated as a better team. Sagarin currently has USD with a significantly harder schedule to date (10+ points/game). Resume is based on wins vs. the schedule you've play. Just because NDSU is rated better does not mean they currently have a better resume, the Sagarin algorithm is more complex than that. While there is definitely some correlation between the two, it is not mutually exclusive despite what you may think.
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What in the hell does that have to do with who currently has a better resume? More like you completely missed the point.
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Opponent ranks per Sagarin: USD WIU - 48 (64.71) YSU - 85 (64.03) Bowling Green - 135 (53.25) UND - 163 (42.97) ISU - 228 (37.67) Drake - 234 (26.65) NDSU YSU - 85 (64.03) EWU - 117 (57.71) MSU - 204 (39.36) ISU - 228 (37.67) Robert Morris - 230 (27.54) MSVU - 238 (8.35) Sagarin has EWU as a whopping 4 points better than the Bowling Green team you claim ins't a good win. Why does it always have to be "Me! Me! Me!" with NDSU fans?
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Sagarin SOS rankings: NDSU - 219 USD - 159 Difference in opponent quality is over 10 points/game.
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I mean, it doesn't sound all that different than Cam Hunt, a RFr who has been playing pretty damn well at middle linebacker. Slated to be a back-up and he has two picks in his first two games since healing up enough to get on the field, even though he's still not 100%. There's a huge difference between plugging and playing a handful of guys, which still gives the other starters the ability to cover up some of the deficiencies. But when you have over half of your starting roster in street clothes and 3rd stringers who were supposed to be getting a handful of snaps a game vs. playing every single down, you lose the ability to cover up some of the drop off that every single roster would have.
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Unfortunately that isn't going to make it better. Hard to believe but it is what it is...
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Unless the running backs can run through 9 guys, I'll take the under. I'd be happy to be wrong but I don't see a whole lot of success passing the ball today.....
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Let's hope a few guys that weren't previously injured can go this week, some dings from last week.
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Looks like quite a few $15/$25 tickets left this weekend for those families who couldn't afford tickets (or thought the price was too high) for the Gopher series. Could get the whole family in for less than the price of a Minnesota ticket.
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I hadn't realized Bryce Blair had switched numbers and lined up at fullback last game part time. Interesting move, guess it's one way to get him on the field until he can put on a little more weight to handle the wear of playing on the line.
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Very possible and you would assume that the schools look at each other as peers rather than down their nose like they aren't worthy of a home/home. I guess the good news is the MVFC will go from having 1 extra team to 2, so maybe that will help out. But again, it still only accounts for 1 game in that whole list.
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They are trying to get the best deal for themselves, as is the other team who needs to make it worth their while to travel up to Fargo, which they typically cover their own expenses for. The price for one-off games continues to go up as everyone wants home games and the teams that are willing to play money games within the FCS appear to have more bargaining power now than they previously did. When FBS teams don't want to play you and you are complaining FCS teams want too much money to come to your house, the only real alternative is to schedule home/homes or open up the pocketbook even further. But again, ignoring the reasoning that "no one will play us" is my bigger issue.
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I mean, I guess travel is easier for the teams because they are in closer proximity but home/home still requires travel to an FCS school. Maybe it's easier, I guess I'm not sure but I do think the only one on that list that would actually fit under that category would be the MSU/EWU series. The rest were from when teams were in the Great West.