Siouxperman8

thanks. i knew the number but mistyped. I'll edit it.

I listened to Osterholm again yesterday. Here is his take - don't blame the messenger here. He said that the 60k death estimate is based on Wuhan type lock down across the entire country through the end of August. that isn't possible in the US and we aren't locking people down at that level. It also only estimates deaths out thru August. The higher death estimates are based on less stringent distancing (he says more realistic here) and project out 12-18 months. He advises a very basic set of numbers for estimating deaths from this thing. 50% of Americans will get it = 160 million Best estimates based on data globally are 1% of those that get it will die from it = 1.6 million deaths*. He's still staying with that number. *edited

Positions: SF, SG https://www.hudl.com/profile/10508450/Jodi-Anderson

For sure. I expect we normally prepare for the worst and hope for the best when it comes to health concerns. I am tapping out on this thread again. I try to stay away but it sucks me in every once in a while. Sorry for posting.

Yes. So we take measures to prevent that. You are making my point in that doing nothing to mitigate the spread would be like playing without a goalie. We are on the same page there.

Again - those weren't his numbers. They are based on science from the experts on what could happen if we did nothing. It is a way to lay out your case to explain why you are taking the actions you are taking. I will continue to take my information from epidemiologists and other experts in the field vs. a person on a message board bitching because not enough people have died.

he was relying on the data available per the science and that number was based on if we did nothing to mitigate the spread. I know that doesn't fit your narrative but at least be fair and acknowledge that. It is really just a math thing. R0 has been estimated at 2 to 2.5 if no mitigation. Really trying to lower that number and we have in MN. It has drastically been reduced. It also isn't over yet.

same is being reported here. Just depends on who you depend on for your narrative.

A story I read made estimates based on how many hours their crematoriums were running and how many urns were delivered to the funeral homes. They estimated the Chinese deaths at 42,000-46,000.

the real question is - Does 5G exposure cause people to come up with wild theories on conference realignment and schools moving up to the FBS division in football?

I sure hope it plays out this way. Positive thoughts

I haven't heard every interview he has done but the ones I have heard have been pretty consistent. I posted this earlier also. I hear Osterholm often on the radio and probably depend on his info too much. I just heard an interview from yesterday and he said the statistics say 160-214 million in US infected over the next 6-8 months. Also at very best 200k will die and up to 1.7M.

He's eligible right away?

I'm hoping there is some kind of framework like that even if it has to be modified as we go along.

Was this detail in his address? I haven't seen this communicated anywhere.

Walz is getting praise for consulting with all of the previous MN governors who are still living as this goes along. One could question the value of getting Jesse's opinion (and maybe Dayton's) but that's another story.

These aren't random numbers. He is relying on Michael Osterholm and his infectious disease group at the UM. These are the exact numbers that Osterholm has been stating since this thing broke.

I want to offer a hearty thanks to Ira, Keikla and the others on here that are in the health care industry. We rely on you to keep fighting the good fight.

I hear Osterholm often on the radio and probably depend on his info too much. I just heard an interview from yesterday and he said the statistics say 160-214 million in US infected over the next 6-8 months. Also at very best 200k will die and up to 1.7M.

Here's an example of how they are different. It compares the number of cases of each virus in days after the 60th case - they are similar. It also shows the number of deaths on the same timeline. it might be one reason why Osterholm and other epidemiologists are so alarmed that it could explode. Source is WHO data, Worldometer.

My 3 kids are teachers in 2 different MN suburban schools. Their schools aren't waiting for Wednesday and both are shutting down starting tomorrow. It will add at least 2 weeks to our spring breaks as their spring breaks start March 30th.

It's ok to think it is a good idea and not be trying to police it. Guidelines have been drawn up at the assisted living center where my MIL lives, at my place of business and my church. I intend to follow them as they meet the spirit of the direction from the CDC and I figure they know about it than I do. I can't control what others do and am not trying to.

I'm sure there could be other factors that impacted this but per this chart social distancing helped in 1918 flu pandemic. Hoping we are on the blue curve and not the yellow.

This is exactly the goal of the groups that are canceling events with large gatherings. It is not because large numbers have died in a particular area. This tactic fits the direction from the CDC but gets roundly criticized here.

If you have time I think this is pretty even handed but sobering look at what we should expect. Joe Rogan interviewing Dr. Micheal Osterholm. Osterholm is an epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist who is at UM now but was head of MN Dept of Health and also ran the CDC for a time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR32ccI_ttm4cdVjo-0s27kUJrKOLZ_x317B377rSdGyYu5595DVjnAHNzo