Bracketology

[siouxweet]

god i hope i dont have any kids out there around the united states or abroad

i go to a few spring training games every season. cant beat the giants in scottsdale, sit on the lawn gass in outfield, have 3-4 beers and a dog and the women are in their bikinis in 85 degree weather. oh yeah, there is a game going on as well

been to 1 game out in maryvale 2 springs ago. nice stadium. its a great time out here and it started yesterday. relaxing day at the ballpark!

ever been to hohokam to see the cubs?

[AZSIOUX]

ever been to hohokam to see the cubs?

yeah, home of the loveable losers been to every spring training park except tucson. i cant stand tucson being a ASU grad ide rather go party in mexico if i am going to dive straight south. whats a extra couple hours

[siouxweet]

I have the same feeling I did in 2000 when it came to Wisconsin, let CC have the cup-we'll take the broadmoar(sp) and the NCAA title. It actaully maybe works to our benefit if CC wins the cup as they will proably be a 1 seed and if we're a 1 seed we won't get shipped out there. I still say we end up as the last one seed placed in Albany with Miami and hopefully BC.

[Goon]

I have the same feeling I did in 2000 when it came to Wisconsin, let CC have the cup-we'll take the broadmoar(sp) and the NCAA title. It actaully maybe works to our benefit if CC wins the cup as they will proably be a 1 seed and if we're a 1 seed we won't get shipped out there. I still say we end up as the last one seed placed in Albany with Miami and hopefully BC.

I would love to see UND light up Miami and Jeff Frazee back up.

B.C. sounds like they are dropping fast right now.

[AZSIOUX]

I would love to see UND light up Miami and Jeff Frazee back up.

B.C. sounds like they are dropping fast right now.

miami is a damn good team but not a 1 seed top team imo. they didnt help themselves by not scheduling top non ccha teams. thats their problem and i see them losing 2nd rd of the ncaa tourney depending on the brackets.

until BC notices they can face the sioux in the frozen 4

[yzerman19]

Hey AZ,

Who the heck is nuber 13 in your gallery? I'm assuming the 24 is from last year and is Porter...

[AZSIOUX]

Hey AZ,

Who the heck is nuber 13 in your gallery? I'm assuming the 24 is from last year and is Porter...

13 is lee marvin i think

[stickboy1956]

i think sagard is referring to other posts of gopher fans everywhere who are acting like a win and a tie just made them a title contender

can the pairwise system get anymore confusing, geez

and is this the first year without bonus points for strength of schedule and out of conferece road wins or is that still in? thanks or any help

No more bonus points - see below PWR Primer on CHNews.

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/info/?d=pwcrpi

That is why when you go to the PWR rankings on UCHO or CollegeHockeyNews, there is no place to include ypothetical bonus points, which used be there in previous years.

[HeidiSioux62]

No more bonus points - see below PWR Primer on CHNews.

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/info/?d=pwcrpi

That is why when you go to the PWR rankings on UCHO or CollegeHockeyNews, there is no place to include ypothetical bonus points, which used be there in previous years.

There's still the asterick for "bad wins". I don't think UND has ever had a "bad win".

[jimdahl]

There's still the asterick for "bad wins". I don't think UND has ever had a "bad win".

Not saying it's gonna happen, but if UND were to win out and sweep someone other than AA in the WCHA play-in, the regular season wins vs. AA would become negative RPI wins. Of course, UND would also likely have taken the lead in RPI so at least 1 or 2 in PWR, which would probably get the bigger press.

[BigGreyAnt41]

There's still the asterick for "bad wins". I don't think UND has ever had a "bad win".

I seem to recall that it used to be that "bad wins" actually hurt you during the regular season, and were only negated during conference playoffs, since the best teams are playing the worse teams. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't remember the asterisk showing up throughout the entire season in the past.

[farce poobah]

There's still the asterick for "bad wins". I don't think UND has ever had a "bad win".

There was the one time where the Sioux got really lucky. The Sioux guy batted the puck out of mid air and into the net.

It was in overtime so there was plenty of time for fighting before then but no actual fighting. That seems like a bad win if you ask me.

[stickboy1956]

I seem to recall that it used to be that "bad wins" actually hurt you during the regular season, and were only negated during conference playoffs, since the best teams are playing the worse teams. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't remember the asterisk showing up throughout the entire season in the past.

This from CHN:

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/info/?d=pwcrpi

Bad win tweak: A flaw of the RPI is that it has a tendency to decrease if a good team defeats a poor team. In order to compensate for this, if a team's victory in a conference tournament game would otherwise lower its RPI, that game is removed from the formula. This only applies to conference tournament games. (Modification, 2006: All games during the season where this effect occurs, will be eliminated from RPI consideration.)

[Goon]

There's still the asterick for "bad wins". I don't think UND has ever had a "bad win".

I agree its like saying, "gee that was a bad beer." With in reason of course.

[RedFrog]

I've got a question for those more in touch with their PWR side.

I was looking at our comparison with New Hampshire

              unh      	vs 	und

	.5795 	0 	RPI 	1 	.5881 	

13-3-2 	.7778 	1 	TUC 	0 	.6800 	16-7-2

6-2-0 	.7500 	1 	COp 	0 	.6250 	2-1-1

1-1-0 		1 	H2H 	1 		1-1-0

		3 	TOT 	2 		

[/codebox]

I was trying to figure out what would happen if UNH lost 1 or even 2 games against Merrimack this weekend. How would it affect our comparison? Well, I don't think it would. Merrimack(RPI - 36) is not a TUC, nor will it likely become one. We didn't play Merrimack, therefore they are not a COp. Sure UNH's RPI would take a hit, but we are already beating them in that category. Thus they would still have the comparison with us, and likely would not falter much in the top echelon of the rankings.

Am I reading this right?

[jimdahl]

I was trying to figure out what would happen if UNH lost 1 or even 2 games against Merrimack this weekend. How would it affect our comparison? Well, I don't think it would. Merrimack(RPI - 36) is not a TUC, nor will it likely become one. We didn't play Merrimack, therefore they are not a COp. Sure UNH's RPI would take a hit, but we are already beating them in that category. Thus they would still have the comparison with us, and likely would not falter much in the top echelon of the rankings.

Am I reading this right?

In terms of the comparison to UND, this weekend's results shouldn't flip it but could set us up for a flip down the road. All of UND's remaining opponents are currently TUCs and UNH has two games vs. Vermont (a TUC) remaining, so UND's performance this weekend does matter in terms of being able to flip the TUC point. Plus, if Merrimack did pull two off UNH, Merrimack would be well on its way to becoming a TUC (it would push them up 4-5 spots on RPI).

As always, though, the TUC cliff looms large. Mich. Tech could drop off with a poor showing vs. Denver, which will be a blow to UND's TUC. Mass.-Lowell is on the cusp, which could actually be a boon to UNH.

[stickboy1956]

In terms of the comparison to UND, this weekend's results shouldn't flip it but could set us up for a flip down the road. All of UND's remaining opponents are currently TUCs and UNH has two games vs. Vermont (a TUC) remaining, so UND's performance this weekend does matter in terms of being able to flip the TUC point. Plus, if Merrimack did pull two off UNH, Merrimack would be well on its way to becoming a TUC (it would push them up 4-5 spots on RPI).

As always, though, the TUC cliff looms large. Mich. Tech could drop off with a poor showing vs. Denver, which will be a blow to UND's TUC. Mass.-Lowell is on the cusp, which could actually be a boon to UNH.

A win at the F5 v CC and a NH loss to BC might flip the COP comparison - someone do the math.

[siouxweet]

A win at the F5 v CC and a NH loss to BC might flip the COP comparison - someone do the math.

that would do it, but the way BC laid an egg this last weekend I wouldn't count on seeing that happen.

[siouxweet]

seeding-will it even be relevant this year? with the projections that jason moy keeps coming with, it doesn't look like seeding is a very important issue because it looks like attendance is the big issue along with protecting michigan's feelings. In last week's bracketology he had michigan going to madison and facing the badgers but then switched it because the wolverines would be getting screwed by having to play the hosting team in the first round(maybe mich should ask cc and denver from afew years back how thery felt having to go to yost). It also looks like there will be a lot of switching going due to the avoidance of interconference matchups in the first round. this rule of 5 is still stupid because you can still avoid interocnference matchups. for instance say the wcha has 5 temas in the tournament cc,und,denver, scsu and wisc. and the seeds are 1,1,2,3,4 you cannot tell me that an interconference matchup can't be avoided. it'll be interesting to see what kind of crap-sorry pairings the committee comes with this year.

[yzerman19]

The other issue is that Merrimack might be a COP for a different team in Hockey East that could take NH's PWR. You can be ahead of a team in the PWR, even if you lose the individual PWR to them!

[AZSIOUX]

seeding-will it even be relevant this year? with the projections that jason moy keeps coming with, it doesn't look like seeding is a very important issue because it looks like attendance is the big issue along with protecting michigan's feelings. In last week's bracketology he had michigan going to madison and facing the badgers but then switched it because the wolverines would be getting screwed by having to play the hosting team in the first round(maybe mich should ask cc and denver from afew years back how thery felt having to go to yost). It also looks like there will be a lot of switching going due to the avoidance of interconference matchups in the first round. this rule of 5 is still stupid because you can still avoid interocnference matchups. for instance say the wcha has 5 temas in the tournament cc,und,denver, scsu and wisc. and the seeds are 1,1,2,3,4 you cannot tell me that an interconference matchup can't be avoided. it'll be interesting to see what kind of crap-sorry pairings the committee comes with this year.

i think when is all said and done there wont be over 5 wcha teams in the tourney which will make the seedings much easier than having 7 wcha tems at this point. i think they will reward the top 1 seed if possibe.

[HeidiSioux62]

I know this is only a "snapshot in time" and things change about every 15 minutes or so during Fri/Sat nights, but this is wild. Unfortunately, Tech is currently out of TUC.

Pairwise 2/29/08 9:30 PM

Rk Team PCWs W-L-T Win % Rk RPI Rk

1 Michigan 24 27-4-4 .8286 1 .5987* 1

2t New Hampshire 22 22-7-2 .7419 3 .5806* 5

2t Colorado College 22 23-8-1 .7344 4 .5906 2

4t North Dakota 21 21-8-2 .7097 5 .5878 3

4t Miami 21 28-6-1 .8143 2 .5814* 4

6 Denver 19 22-10-1 .6818 6 .5730 6

7 Michigan State 18 22-9-5 .6806 7 .5573 7

8t Clarkson 16 19-10-4 .6364 9 .5404 10

8t Boston College 16 16-10-7 .5909 12 .5411 9

10 Minnesota State 14 16-12-4 .5625 16t .5354 12

11t Wisconsin 12 14-13-7 .5147 28 .5329 13

11t Minnesota 12 13-13-8 .5000 29t .5285 15

11t Minnesota-Duluth 12 12-12-6 .5000 29t .5281 16

11t Notre Dame 12 21-11-4 .6389 8 .5414 8

15 St. Cloud State 11 16-13-3 .5469 19 .5390 11

16 Providence 9 14-13-4 .5161 24t .5168 19

17 Princeton 8 17-11-0 .6071 11 .5288 14

18 Boston University 7 15-14-4 .5152 26t .5214 17

19t Harvard 6 13-11-4 .5357 21 .5119 24

19t Vermont 6 13-11-7 .5323 23 .5204 18

21t Mass.-Lowell 3 14-13-4 .5161 24t .5145 20

21t Northeastern 3 14-14-3 .5000 29t .5135 21

21t Union 3 15-11-6 .5625 16t .5121 23

24 Quinnipiac 2 17-12-4 .5758 14t .5089 25

25 Cornell 1 14-11-3 .5536 18 .5127 22

[RedFrog]

Up to the minute PWR: CC has claimed the overall #1!!

Also, 8 WCHA teams in the top 14!!

Rk 	Team 	   PCWs 	W-L-T 	Win % 	Rk 	RPI 	Rk

1t 	Colorado Clge 	23 	24-8-1 	.7424 	3 	.5915 	2

1t 	Michigan 	23 	27-4-4 	.8286 	1 	.5981* 	1

3 	New Hampshire 	22 	22-7-2 	.7419 	4 	.5807* 	5

4t 	North Dakota 	21 	21-8-2 	.7097 	5 	.5872 	3

4t 	Miami 	     21 	29-6-1 	.8194 	2 	.5820* 	4

6 	Denver 	     19 	22-10-1  .6818 	6 	.5722 	6

7 	Michigan State 	18 	22-9-5 	.6806 	7 	.5572 	7

8 	Clarkson 	17 	19-10-4 .6364 	9 	.5400 	9

9 	Boston College 	16 	16-10-7 .5909 	12 	.5411 	8

10 	Wisconsin 	14 	15-13-7 .5286 	23 	.5366 	10

11 	Minn State 	13 	16-13-4 .5455 	18t 	.5323 	13

12t 	Minnesota 	12 	13-13-8 .5000 	29t 	.5284 	14

12t 	Minn-Duluth 	12 	12-12-6	.5000 	29t 	.5278 	16

14 	St. Cloud St 	11 	16-14-3 .5303 	22 	.5345 	12

15 	Notre Dame 	10 	21-12-4	.6216 	10 	.5355 	11

16 	Providence 	9 	14-13-4 .5161 	25t 	.5169 	19

17 	Princeton 	8 	17-11-0 .6071 	11 	.5282 	15

18 	Boston Univ 	7 	15-14-4	.5152 	27t 	.5215 	17

19t 	Harvard 	6 	13-11-4 .5357 	20 	.5116 	24

19t 	Vermont 	6 	13-11-7	.5323 	21 	.5204 	18

21t 	Mass.-Lowell 	3 	14-13-4	.5161 	25t 	.5146 	20

21t 	Northeastern 	3 	14-14-3	.5000 	29t 	.5136 	21

21t 	Union 	      3 	15-11-6 .5625 	16 	.5118 	23

24 	Quinnipiac 	2 	17-12-4	.5758 	13t 	.5092 	25

25 	Cornell 	1 	14-11-3 .5536 	17 	.5129 	22[/codebox]

[The Whistler]

I suspect that Duluth will drop a few spots by Sunday afternoon.

[nodakvindy]

The current PWR could realistically provide the following brackets

Colorado Springs

1 Colorado College

16 Bemidji St.

8 Clarkson

9 Minnesota St.

Albany

4 North Dakota

13 Army

5 Miami

12 Minnesota-Duluth

Worcester

3 New Hampshire

14 Minnesota

6 Denver

11 Boston College

Madison

2 Michigan

15 St. Cloud State

7 Michigan St.

10 Wisconsin

Very few changes necessary from the actual rankings. Army and St. Cloud switch to avoid a first round matchup between UND and St. Cloud and BC and Mankato Switch to avoid a Denver Mankato matchup. These pairings would result in pretty strong attendance as well. The only thing I don't like is having the only two hockey east teams together. Ideally I would switch BC and Clarkson in this situation, even though technically Clarkson is a 2 seed and BC is a 3. You could also switch St. Cloud and the Gophers if you wanted a Big 10 regional in Madison.