farce poobah Posted January 23, 2008 Posted January 23, 2008 someday ill have to figure all this out and understand it year by year i gain a little more knowledge without doing any research but Ill just have to buckle up understand all of it. As a die hard sioux fan i should know these things, inside and out Print it out, put it under your pillow, and knowledge will seek into your brain effortlessly while you sleep. I learned Spanish that way. Quote
AZSIOUX Posted January 23, 2008 Posted January 23, 2008 someday ill have to figure all this out and understand it year by year i gain a little more knowledge without doing any research but Ill just have to buckle up understand all of it. As a die hard sioux fan i should know these things, inside and out theres a lot to the system but the easiest way to break down the pairwise for the ncaa tourney is the top 13 or so in the pairwise will be in the tourney then usually 1 team in for winning thier conference tourney in the cha , atlantic and the maybe the ecac but they get 2 in the end. but if there is a suprise conference tourney winner that will put a team in the 12-13 range in the pairwise out of the tourney bumping them out as the top conferences like wcha, hockey east, ccha will all have 3 plus teams each. Quote
NorthDakotaHockey Posted January 23, 2008 Posted January 23, 2008 Bracketology - Week 2 Yes. This is what I am talking about . . . . Sioux return to The World in late March on their Drive to Denver. Knowing this to be true, we already have our seats there as they will be tough to come by with the Tigers in the tournament for sure this year, unlike the last time that they hosted. Those teams that are going to Denvermust beat the so-called best along the way. CC is in that realm, but is certainly no better than the Sioux. New year, different result, in the NCAAs at The World Arena. Quote
yzerman19 Posted January 23, 2008 Posted January 23, 2008 We need to keep winning and get a #1 seed to avoid the NCAA pittting two top contending WCHA teams in the same bracket. I built the same bracketology on a diferent thread yesterday with one difference. I didn't do any attendence manipulating. Getting CC in Colorado Springs is almost as bad as getting Michigan at Yost. Quote
NorthDakotaHockey Posted January 23, 2008 Posted January 23, 2008 . . . . Getting CC in Colorado Springs is almost as bad as getting Michigan at Yost. Or North Dakota at The Ralph or the Gophers at The John or the Badgers at the Kohl . . . . All second round matchups will be barn burners. There will be plenty of Sioux fans at The World. CC fans aren't as rabid as one might think. Good fans, but none to fear. We should not play Georgie Porgie on our Drive to Denver. A weekend in the Colorado mountains will be good training for the boys who will play in The Mile High two weeks following. Put us anywhere, and we will succeed. Quote
jimdahl Posted January 23, 2008 Posted January 23, 2008 I wrote a blog post a couple days ago outlining where the current PWR leaves UND. I see no point duplicating USCHO or CHN's bracketology articles or such, rather it's more specifically focused toward UND's situation and Sioux fans with the assumption that you already understand PWR from some other source. They'll become more specifically forward-looking as it begins to make sense to do so. In summary, of the five teams to whom we're currently losing a comparison: Clarkson: UND could take TUC or COP (with a little help) to flip the 2-1 comparison CC: UND trails 1-4 with no h2h remaining. Ouch Denver: UND trails 1-4, but has two h2h remaining. Miami: UND trails 0-2. TUC isn't in play because Miami hasn't played enough, but the RPI comparison is within reach Michigan: UND trails 0-3. It's leads in TUC, COP, and RPI are formidable. Quote
siouxweet Posted January 24, 2008 Posted January 24, 2008 I wrote a blog post a couple days ago outlining where the current PWR leaves UND. I see no point duplicating USCHO or CHN's bracketology articles or such, rather it's more specifically focused toward UND's situation and Sioux fans with the assumption that you already understand PWR from some other source. They'll become more specifically forward-looking as it begins to make sense to do so. In summary, of the five teams to whom we're currently losing a comparison: Clarkson: UND could take TUC or COP (with a little help) to flip the 2-1 comparison CC: UND trails 1-4 with no h2h remaining. Ouch Denver: UND trails 1-4, but has two h2h remaining. Miami: UND trails 0-2. TUC isn't in play because Miami hasn't played enough, but the RPI comparison is within reach Michigan: UND trails 0-3. It's leads in TUC, COP, and RPI are formidable. odds are miami will at the end of the year have enough games against tuc unless they happen to lay an egg inthe ccha tourney, they will have 9 games in a couple of weeks when they play michigan so tuc will proabably come into play. Quote
siouxweet Posted January 24, 2008 Posted January 24, 2008 I have a feeling that unless we are a 1 seed we will be sent to colorado springs regardless of seed, the committee will probably make sure of that. I don't like the prospects of having to beat cc on their home ice to advance to the frozen 4 considering we don't have a lot of success out there. not saying it can't be done, but I wouldn't be looking forward to that challenge. Quote
brianvf Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 I have a feeling that unless we are a 1 seed we will be sent to colorado springs regardless of seed, the committee will probably make sure of that. I don't like the prospects of having to beat cc on their home ice to advance to the frozen 4 considering we don't have a lot of success out there. not saying it can't be done, but I wouldn't be looking forward to that challenge. I agree with that. If UND isn't a 1 seed, I see them getting sent to the Springs. I can see the committee putting 2 WCHA schools there to help bolster attendance. I would personally like to see DU fall to a 2 seed and then have them sent there instead. Plus that would guarantee a sellout for all 3 games if both CC and DU advance to the regional final. Quote
AZSIOUX Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 I agree with that. If UND isn't a 1 seed, I see them getting sent to the Springs. I can see the committee putting 2 WCHA schools there to help bolster attendance. I would personally like to see DU fall to a 2 seed and then have them sent there instead. Plus that would guarantee a sellout for all 3 games if both CC and DU advance to the regional final. when we lost to denver in the cc regional 3 years back the attendence sucked. all games. weak weak effort as there wasnt any promotions around the springs. the world arena is bigger than du arena but it wasnt that full at all and you would think it would have been with denver vs the sioux. keep winning and somehow get into that top 4 theres no way they would put denver in that regional as that would serve as almost home ice for both of those teams in a way. when scsu sneaks its way in just send them as a 3 or 4 seed Quote
stickboy1956 Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 when we lost to denver in the cc regional 3 years back the attendence sucked. all games. weak weak effort as there wasnt any promotions around the springs. the world arena is bigger than du arena but it wasnt that full at all and you would think it would have been with denver vs the sioux. keep winning and somehow get into that top 4 theres no way they would put denver in that regional as that would serve as almost home ice for both of those teams in a way. when scsu sneaks its way in just send them as a 3 or 4 seed One way would be is if CC and Denver finish 4/5 in the PWR - that puts them in the same bracket (without any switching to avoid inter-conf 1st round games). Quote
jimdahl Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 odds are miami will at the end of the year have enough games against tuc unless they happen to lay an egg inthe ccha tourney, they will have 9 games in a couple of weeks when they play michigan so tuc will proabably come into play. Probably -- as you noted, they currently have 7 games against TUCs and 2 more scheduled. The only TUC they've played "on the bubble" is Bowling Green at #21. Some other opponents in the low 20s could become TUCs, catapulting them past 10. It was just pretty shocking to me to see a top-ranked team in a position such that, given the current rankings, it will have only played 9 games against TUCs in the regular season. Quote
The Whistler Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 If we didn't use the PWR then we'd probably settle on the KRACH as the best statistical method of choosing teams for the tournament. From the WCHA's perspective that would mean Wisconsin who's sitting at #12 would be added to the tournament as well as Minnesota at 14. St Clown at 15 would be bumped out due to the autobids. Minnesota would be right on the bubble in case a lower team would win their conference championship. It doesn't seem quite the travesty that the Badgers and Gophers are left out this year considering the season they've had. And no, I really don't have a point in this. Just throwing it out there for discussion. The only thing is I'd love to see Michigan and Miami have to play a WCHA team, ANY WCHA team to advance to the Frozen Four. Quote
HeidiSioux62 Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 The only thing is I'd love to see Michigan and Miami have to play a WCHA team, ANY WCHA team to advance to the Frozen Four. Even St Clown - who is notoriously one and done? Quote
The Whistler Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 Even St Clown - who is notoriously one and done? It might be St Clowns year to take a team into double overtime. Quote
siouxweet Posted January 26, 2008 Posted January 26, 2008 If we didn't use the PWR then we'd probably settle on the KRACH as the best statistical method of choosing teams for the tournament. From the WCHA's perspective that would mean Wisconsin who's sitting at #12 would be added to the tournament as well as Minnesota at 14. St Clown at 15 would be bumped out due to the autobids. Minnesota would be right on the bubble in case a lower team would win their conference championship. It doesn't seem quite the travesty that the Badgers and Gophers are left out this year considering the season they've had. And no, I really don't have a point in this. Just throwing it out there for discussion. The only thing is I'd love to see Michigan and Miami have to play a WCHA team, ANY WCHA team to advance to the Frozen Four. wouldn't that be something if Wisonsin made the tourney and either michigan or miami had to play them int he first round or I can see us being screwed and having to play them int he first round if we don't get sent to colorado springs. Quote
AZSIOUX Posted January 26, 2008 Posted January 26, 2008 wouldn't that be something if Wisonsin made the tourney and either michigan or miami had to play them int he first round or I can see us being screwed and having to play them int he first round if we don't get sent to colorado springs. wont happen as there are never conference vs conference teams first round matchups.......wont happen Quote
siouxweet Posted January 26, 2008 Posted January 26, 2008 wont happen as there are never conference vs conference teams first round matchups.......wont happen I could see a scenario if 2 or more wcha schools are 1 seeds, plus I don't put anything past the committe. Quote
stickboy1956 Posted January 27, 2008 Posted January 27, 2008 I can't wait to see Jason Moy's/USCHO bracketology this week. 5 WCHA teams are in the top 14 in the PWR, including Wisco, which is hosting the MW regional. Actually, the way the season is going, getting sent to a big sheet like CC or Wisco would be good for the Sioux. Quote
siouxweet Posted January 27, 2008 Posted January 27, 2008 I bet you we would be out east in worchester in new hamspshire's bracket as a 2 seed playing either bc or providence and denver and cc would be paired in the same bracket out west. Quote
AZSIOUX Posted January 28, 2008 Posted January 28, 2008 I bet you we would be out east in worchester in new hamspshire's bracket as a 2 seed playing either bc or providence and denver and cc would be paired in the same bracket out west. i highly doubt we see denver in cc's regional with them. could be worng of course but i dont seet that at all Quote
HeidiSioux62 Posted January 28, 2008 Posted January 28, 2008 There is an incredibly good chance that I have this all wrong (even after reading the pairwise stuff and the bracketology stuff on USCHO I'm not sure I really understand it) but with my limited knowledge it looks like the WCHA currently has 5 teams in the tourney. Pairwise as of 1-27-08 1 Miami 24 25-3-0 .8929 1 .6091* 1 2 Michigan 23 22-3-1 .8654 2 .6081* 2 3 Denver 22 18-6-0 .7500 3 .5959* 3 4 New Hampshire 21 15-7-1 .6739 7 .5696* 6 5 Colorado College 20 18-7-1 .7115 5 .5904 4 6 North Dakota 19 16-8-1 .6600 9 .5803 5 7 Michigan State 17 17-5-5 .7222 4 .5659 7 8t Notre Dame 16 20-9-1 .6833 6 .5645* 8 8t Clarkson 16 15-7-2 .6667 8 .5440 10 10 Boston College 15 12-5-7 .6458 10t .5543 9 11 Providence 14 11-9-2 .5455 19 .5283 15 12 Minnesota-Duluth 13 10-8-6 .5417 21 .5383 12 13t Northeastern 12 11-8-3 .5682 13 .5357 13 13t Wisconsin 12 11-10-5 .5192 26t .5399 11 15 Mass.-Lowell 10 11-8-4 .5652 14 .5288 14 16 Massachusetts 9 9-8-6 .5217 24 .5272 17 17 Minnesota 8 12-11-5 .5179 28 .5282 16 18 Michigan Tech 7 10-11-3 .4792 33t .5246 19 19 Quinnipiac 6 14-7-3 .6458 10t .5266 18 20 Minnesota State 5 11-10-4 .5200 25 .5244 20 21 St. Cloud State 4 11-12-3 .4808 31t .5225 21 22t Princeton 3 10-8-0 .5556 16 .5204 22 22t Cornell 3 9-7-3 .5526 17 .5108 24 24 Niagara 1 15-8-1 .6458 10t .5119 23 25 Bowling Green 0 12-12-0 .5000 29t .5045 25 Current conference leaders Atlantic - RIT CCHA - Miami CHA - Bemidji ECAC - Clarkson HE - UNH WCHA - CC So the only conference leaders not in the top 16 are RIT and Bemidji, so they would take Mass-Lowell and Massachusetts' places to round out the top 16. Am I anywhere close? Quote
jimdahl Posted January 28, 2008 Posted January 28, 2008 I'll keep saying it. Strength of schedule just isn't that important anymore with the changes in the RPI formula. The most direct measure of your schedule strength is Opponents Winning Percentage. That was de-emphasized from 50% of your RPI to 21% of your RPI. The tweak was put in place to limit the negative impact of some wins on teams RPI when they played an oppponent with a bad record. The unintended consequence was a complete dilution of the SOS. Now winning percentage matters most because that is where there is the biggest separation between teams. It was stupid from the start and the WCHA coaches were fools to give their advantage away. It was an extremely misguided adjustment at best. I did a detailed analysis of its exact impact a year ago. Combined with the extension of the negative win exemption to the regular season, the easiest path to the top of the RPI seems to be schedule creampuffs and beat them. Miami currently has a comical 8 games thrown out of their RPI calculation for being negative wins, and 6 of the remaining 8 would currently be thrown out if won. Quote
siouxweet Posted January 28, 2008 Posted January 28, 2008 i highly doubt we see denver in cc's regional with them. could be worng of course but i dont seet that at all why not the ncaa would amost, and I say almost be guaranteed a colorado team in the frozen four then. Quote
GeauxSioux Posted January 28, 2008 Posted January 28, 2008 why not the ncaa would amost, and I say almost be guaranteed a colorado team in the frozen four then. Knowing the NCAA, they would get greedy and try to get 2 Colorado teams in. Quote
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